Usted no se lo cree

Textos de referencia: Peor de lo esperado

Las referencias se van añadiendo a medida que se publican los distintos capítulos

1. William Wordsworth (1853) – The Prelude. Citado en Francisco J. Fernández Buey (2004), La ilusión del método: Ideas para un racionalismo bien temperado
2. Barrie Pittock (2006) – Are Scientists Underestimating Climate Change? – Eos 87:340-341 doi:10.1029/2006EO340006 – CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia – http://climateprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/pittock.pdf
   “The above recent developments simply might mean that the science is progressing, but it also may suggest that up until now many scientists may have consciously or unconsciously downplayed the more extreme possibilities at the high end of the uncertainty range, in an attempt to appear moderate and ‘responsible’ (that is, to avoid scaring people) … However, true responsibility is to provide evidence of what must be avoided: to define, quantify, and warn against possible dangerous or unacceptable outcomes.”
3. Joseph Romm (2009) – Why the world’s top scientists underestimated how fast we’re destroying the climate – Climate Progress, 16/03/2009 – http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/16/ipcc-consensus-global-warming-underestimate-impacts/
   “There is a political and diplomatic incentive to low-ball emissions predictions because lower numbers make the task ahead appear less onerous … The overly optimistic predictions in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment, released in 2007, appear to have been driven, in part, by the political dynamics involved in the international effort”
4. Richard Monastersky (2009) – The Climate Crunch. A burden beyond bearing – Nature 458:1091-1094 doi:10.1038/4581091a – http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090429/full/4581091a.html
   ”The climate situation may be even worse than you think (…) evidence that keeping carbon dioxide beneath dangerous levels is tougher than previously thought”.
5. Stephen Schneider (2009) – The Climate Crunch: The worst-case scenario – Nature 458:1104-1105 doi:10.1038/4581104a – Professor of interdisciplinary environmental studies and biology, and a senior fellow in the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University
   “The IPCC estimates about 2.5 °C to 6.4 °C as the «likely» range for warming by 2100 under A1FI, so there is a 5–17% chance that temperatures will go up by more than 6.4 °C by 2100.”
6. Jonathan Watts – Vaclav Smil: ‘Growth must end. Our economist friends don’t seem to realise that’ – The Guardian, 21/09/2019 – https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/sep/21/vaclav-smil-interview-growth-must-end-economists
   “Can businessmen accept an end to growth? Have you mentioned this to Bill Gates? I don’t need to tell him. He knows a lot about the environment. Put aside the billions of dollars and he is just a guy who likes to understand the world. He reads dozens of books every year. Like me. ”
7. Melanie Moses (2019) – The energy crunch. Computing a hard limit on growth – Nature 573:344-345 doi:10.1038/d41586-019-02716-z – University of New Mexico + Santa Fe Institute – https://www.nature.com/magazine-assets/d41586-019-02716-z/d41586-019-02716-z.pdf
   “He argues that most economic projections predict growth by ignoring the biophysical reality of limited resources … we now put more fossil-fuel energy in for each unit of food we get out. On a crowded Earth, we mostly address this challenge by eating up more land … We face, after all, our most crucial singularity: a single planet whose resources have fuelled the spectacular growth of human civilization, and are now running out.”
8. Vaclav Smil (2019) – Growth: From Microorganisms to Megacities – The MIT Press – ISBN-13: 978-0262042833 – 664 Págs.
   “I believe that a fundamental departure from the long-established pattern of maximizing growth and promoting material consumption cannot be delayed by another century and that before 2100 modern civilization will have to make major steps toward ensuring the long-term habitability of its biosphere.”
9. Naomi Oreskes, Michael Oppenheimer, Dale Jamieson (2019) – Scientists Have Been Underestimating the Pace of Climate Change – Scientific American, 19/08/2019 – https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/scientists-have-been-underestimating-the-pace-of-climate-change/
   “We found little reason to doubt the results of scientific assessments, overall. We found no evidence of fraud, malfeasance or deliberate deception or manipulation. Nor did we find any reason to doubt that scientific assessments accurately reflect the views of their expert communities. But we did find that scientists tend to underestimate the severity of threats and the rapidity with which they might unfold.»
10. Ferran Puig Vilar (2017) – De la realidad ontológica a la percepción social del cambio climático: el papel de la comunidad científica en la dilución de la realidad – Papeles de relaciones ecosociales y cambio global 136:55-73
11. Don Howard (2009) – Better Red than Dead-Putting an End to the Social Irrelevance of Postwar Philosophy of Science – Science & Education 18:199–220 doi:10.1007/s11191-007-9117-3 – 28/09/2007 – Philosophy, University of Notre Dame
    “Hans Reichenbach spoke for a ‘‘right wing’’ that discounted the role of non-cognitive factors in the ‘context of justifConinck and Aromar ication’, relegating their work to the ‘context of discovery’.”
12. Nikolay Milkov and Volker Peckhaus (Eds.) (2013) – The Berlin Group and the Philosophy of Logical Empiricism – Springer, Boston Studies in the Philosophy and History of Science doi:10.1007/978-94-007-5485-0 – Department of Philosophy, University of Paderborn – ISBN-13: 978-9400754843 – 332 Págs.
    “The Berlin Group for scientific philosophy was active between 1928 and 1933 and was closely related to the Vienna Circle … Above all, while the Berlin Group explored philosophical problems of the actual practice of science, the Vienna Circle, closely following Wittgenstein, was more interested in problems of the language of science.”
13. Hans Reichenbach – Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 01/11/2016 – https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/reichenbach/
    “Reichenbach’s most enduring distinction is between “the context of discovery and the context of justification.” But Reichenbach did not always allow the distinction, and the distinction he intended is not quite the one commonly attributed to him.”
14. Antonio García-Olivares – La construcción colectiva del conocimiento científico y su divulgación – Autonomía y Bienvivir, 30/04/2019 – https://autonomiaybienvivir.blogspot.com/2019/04/la-construccion-colectiva-del_85.html
    “Latour nota que hay en realidad dos ciencias, o fases cualitativamente diferentes del proceso científico, y que se dicen cosas diferentes en cada fase. Las dos fases son: la ciencia ya sistematizada y la ciencia que crea nuevos constructos teóricos. La distinción procede de Reichenbach, quien denominó a las dos fases contexto de justificación y contexto de descubrimiento, respectivamente.”
15. Francisco J. Fernández Buey (1990,2004) – La ilusión del método: Ideas para un racionalismo bien temperado – Editorial Crítica – Universidad de Barcelona – ISBN-13: 978-8484325482 – 248 Págs.
    “La aportación principal de Thomas S. Kuhn a la consideración teórica de la ciencia era, precisamente, un cambio de tema: del estudio de la estructura de la ciencia como producto al estudio de la historia de la ciencia en construcción, de la ciencia como proceso.” (p. 87)
16. Keynyn Brysse, Naomi Oreskes, Jessica O’Reilly and Michael Oppenheimer (2013) – Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? – Global Environmental Change 23:327–337 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008 – Program in Science, Technology and Society, Office of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Alberta; History and Science Studies, University of California; Department of Sociology, College of St. Benedict/St. John’s University; Department of Geosciences and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
    “We argue that the scientific values of rationality, dispassion, and self-restraint tend to lead scientists to demand greater levels of evidence in support of surprising, dramatic, or alarming conclusions than in support of conclusions that are less surprising, less alarming, or more consistent with the scientific status quo.”
17. William R.L. Anderegg et al (2014) – Awareness of Both Type 1 and 2 Errors in Climate Science and Assessment – Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society BAMS 95:1445–1451 doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00115.1 – Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University – http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2014.34.pdf – 5 autores
    “We posit here that awareness of both ‘false positive’ and ‘false negative’ errors is particularly critical in climate science and assessments, such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Scientific and assessment practices likely focus more attention to avoiding false positives, which could lead to higher prevalence of false-negative errors … we highlight that false-negative errors also have consequences, including impaired communication of the risks of climate change.”
18. Daniel Lacalle – Fracking’ sí, por favor – Cortizalia, 08/06/2013 – http://blogs.elconfidencial.com/economia/lleno-energia/2013/06/08/fracking-si-por-favor-8521
    “La tecnología está probada y se desarrolla de manera eficiente y segura en más de 10.000 pozos anuales en EEUU. Antes de que se lancen a contarme historias de miedo de documentales -desmontados- como ‘Gasland‘, y para los que quieran entrar en detalle sobre todos los riesgos y las aclaraciones a los miedos infundados, les recomiendo mi articulo con preguntas y respuestas sobre el fracking aquí.”
19. Bernard Barber (1961) – Resistance by Scientists to Scientific Discovery – Science 134:596-602 doi:10.1126/science.134.3479.596 – Director of the Centre for the Study of Knowledge Expertise Science at Cardiff University, UK – Texto de una conferencia pronunciada el 20/12/1960 en el encuentro de la American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) de Nueva York – http://web.missouri.edu/~hanuscind/8710/Barber1961.pdf
    “If ‘the edge of objectivity’ in science, as Charles Gillispie has recently pointed out, requires us to take physical and biological nature as it. is, without projecting our wishes upon it, so also we have to take man’s social nature, or his behavior in society, as it is. As men in society, scientists are sometimes the agents, sometimes the objects, of resistance to their own discoveries.”
20. Keynyn Brysse, Naomi Oreskes, Jessica O’Reilly and Michael Oppenheimer (2013) (Íbidem)
    “Restraint is a community norm in science, and it tends to lead many scientists (ceteris paribus and with some individual exceptions) to be cautious rather than alarmist, dispassionate rather then emotional, understated rather than overstated, restrained rather than excessive, and above all, moderate rather than dramatic.”
21. David Corn – It’s the End of the World as They Know It. The distinct burden of being a climate scientist – Mother Jones, 08/07/2019 – https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2019/07/weight-of-the-world-climate-change-scientist-grief/
    “Are scientists, then, canaries in a psychological coal mine?”
22. Lesley M. Head and Theresa Harada (2017) – Keeping the heart a long way from the brain: The emotional labour of climate scientists – Emotion, Space and Society 24:34-41 doi:10.1016/j.emospa.2017.07.005 – School of Geography, University of Melbourne; Australian Centre for Cultural Environmental Research (AUSCCER), University of Wollongong
    “We have shown that emotion management works to: 1) produce the subject of the scientist as objective and rational through strategies consistent with everyday denial [ref], 2) produce the collective of dedicated, inspired and passionate climate scientists, 3) give form to the performance of an optimistic disposition which aligns with Erring on the Side of Least Drama [ref]. ”
23. Lesley M. Head and Theresa Harada (2017) – Íbidem
    “The multiple ways that the scientists distance themselves from emotions around their work can be understood as constituting a kind of everyday denial … The labour of optimism and its companion, the suppression of doom and gloom, conform to feeling rules frequently observed in western culture; the expectation to manage emotions to remain optimistic and to thus emphasize pleasurable emotions over painful ones.”
24. Kari Marie Norgaard (2011) – Living in Denial: Climate Change, Emotions, and Everyday Life – The MIT Press, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – Professor of Sociology and Environmental Studies, University of Oregon – ISBN-13: 978-0262515856 – 304 Págs.
    “Adding to Zeruvabel’s framework other theory from sociology of culture and emotions, I describe socially organized denial as the process by which individuals collectively distance themselves from information because of norms of emotion, conversation, and attention and by which they use an existing cultural repertoire of strategies in the process.” (p. 9)
25. Lesley M. Head and Theresa Harada (2017) – Keeping the heart a long way from the brain: The emotional labour of climate scientists – Emotion, Space and Society 24:34-41 doi:10.1016/j.emospa.2017.07.005 – School of Geography, University of Melbourne; Australian Centre for Cultural Environmental Research (AUSCCER), University of Wollongong
    “No one was unambiguously optimistic, and there were many more expressions of pessimistic than optimistic thought … emotional management strategies helped to reinforce group strength and resolve e by overcoming a pessimistic outlook their compulsion to continue to work was intensified … The emotions associated with the challenges of climate science helped to inspire and motivate scientists to ‘keep on going’.”
26. David Corn – It’s the End of the World as They Know It. The distinct burden of being a climate scientist – Mother Jones, 08/07/2019 – https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2019/07/weight-of-the-world-climate-change-scientist-grief/
    “Most mornings [Cobb], she could not get out of bed, despite having four children to tend to … ‘I had to face the fact that there was a veritable tidal wave of people who don’t care about climate change and who put personal interest above the body of scientific information that I had contributed to.’ Her depression persisted for weeks. ‘I didn’t recognize myself,’ she says.”
27. The Scientists – Is this how you feel? – 18/04/2019 – https://www.isthishowyoufeel.com/this-is-how-scientists-feel.html
    “What follows are the words of real scientists. Researchers that understand climate change.”
28. Richard P. Feynmann et al (1997) – Surely you’re joking, Mr. Feynman! Adventures of a curious character – W.W. Norton & Company, New York – ISBN-13: 978-0393316049 – 352 págs – http://buffman.net/ebooks/Richard_P_Feynman-Surely_Youre_Joking_Mr_Feynman_v5.pdf
    “If you plot them as a function of time, you find that one is a little bit bigger than Millikan’s, and the next one’s a little bit bigger than that, and the next one’s a little bit bigger than that, until finally they settle down to a number which is higher. Why didn’t they discover the new number was higher right away?”
29. Ross Garnaut (2008) – Garnaut Climate Change Review – Australian Government – http://www.garnautreview.org.au/index.htm
    “There is debate and recognition of limits to knowledge about the times and ways in which the risk will manifest itself. Every climate scientist has views on some issues that differ from the mainstream in detail. There are prominent dissenters on this matter, gathered under the rubric of ‘sceptic’. For the most part ‘sceptic’ is a misnomer for their position, because these dissenters hold strongly to the belief that the mainstream science is wrong.”
30. George Monbiot (2013) – Abbottalypse Now – The Guardian, 05/09/2013 – http://www.monbiot.com/2013/09/05/abbottalypse-now/
    “Abbott is following a familiar script, the 4 Ds of climate change inaction, promoted by fossil fuel lovers the world over. Deny, then defer, then delay, then despair … To those four Ds you can add an R: retreat. Like Canada, Australia is slipping back down the development ladder, switching from secondary and tertiary industries towards primary resource extraction.”
31. Tony Abbott – Wikipedia, 14/06/2019 – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Abbott
    “In October 2017, Abbott spoke in London at the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a climate-skeptic lobby group, where he described climate change as ‘probably doing good; or at least, more good than harm’ [refs]. He argued that higher concentrations of carbon dioxide act as «plant food» and «are actually greening the planet and helping to lift agricultural yields.».”
32. Ross Garnaut (2011) – Garnaut Climate Change Review – Update 2011: Update Paper 5: The science of climate change – Australian Government – http://www.garnautreview.org.au/update-2011/update-papers/up5-the-science-of-climate-change.pdf
    “My own experience and observations of related phenomena suggest that the source of bias is scholarly reticence. It is not optimism that is unscholarly, but being too far away from the mainstream …not being too far away from the mainstream has been associated with understatement of the risks … There must be a possibility that scholarly reticence, extended by publications lags, has led to understatement of the risks.”
33. John H. Mercer (1968) – Antarctic Ice and Sangamon Sea Level – International Association of Science Hydrology Symposium 79:217–225 – Institute of Polar Studies, Ohio State University – http://web.mac.com/redifiori/Russell_Di_Fiori/Sangamon_Fossil_Project_files/Sangamon%20sea%20level.pdf
    “The portion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that is grounded below sea level and is in dynamic equilibrium with the Ross and Filchner ice shelves would disintegrate, raising sea level by about 4 m to 6 m. That this has happened at least once during the Pleistocene is suggested by a well-marked sea level stand of about 6 m.”
34. H. Mercer (1978) – West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster – Nature 271:321-325 doi:10.1038/271321a0 –Institute of Polar Studies, The Ohio State University
    “If the global consumption of fossil fuels continues to grow at its present rate, atmospheric CO2 content will double in about 50 years … [this]could start rapid deglaciation of West Antarctica, leading to a 5 m rise in sea level.”
35. James Hansen (2007) – Huge sea level rises are coming – unless we act now – New Scientist 2614, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute – http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19526141.600-huge-sea-level-rises-are-coming–unless-we-act-now.html
    “John Mercer effect: … I noticed that researchers who suggested that his paper was alarmist were regarded as more authoritative. It seems to me that scientists downplaying the dangers of climate change fare better when it comes to getting funding.”
36. Science News – Antarctic ice sheet is more vulnerable to carbon dioxide than expected – Science Daily, 22/01/2016 – University of Massachusetts at Amherst – https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/02/160222155615.htm
    “Results from a new climate reconstruction of how Antarctica’s ice sheets responded during the last period when atmospheric carbon dioxide reached levels like those expected to occur in about 30 years … suggest that the ice sheets are more vulnerable to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide than previously thought.”
37. Thomas Sumner (2014) – No Stopping the Collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet – Science 344:683 doi:10.1126/science.344.6185.683
    “A disaster may be unfolding—in slow motion. Earlier this week, two teams of scientists reported that Thwaites Glacier, a keystone holding the massive West Antarctic Ice Sheet together, is starting to collapse. In the long run, they say, the entire ice sheet is doomed.”
38. Alexander Robinson, Reinhard Calov and Andrey Ganopolski (2012) – Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet – Nature Climate Change 2:429–432 doi:10.1038/nclimate1449 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research + Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research + Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), CSIC-UCM – 3 autores – https://bit.ly/2KArEDE
    “The present best estimate of the threshold in global temperature rise leading to complete melting of the ice sheet is 3.1 °C (1.9–5.1 °C, 95% confidence interval) … Here … we estimate that the warming threshold leading to a monostable, essentially ice-free state is in the range of 0.8–3.2 °C, with a best estimate of 1.6 °C.”
39. Mathieu Morlighem et al (2014) – Deeply incised submarine glacial valleys beneath the Greenland ice sheet – Nature Geoscience 7:418–422 doi:10.1038/ngeo2167 – University of California, Irvine, Department of Earth System Science – http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/ngeo2167.pdf – 5 autores
    “Our findings imply that the outlet glaciers of Greenland, and the ice sheet as a whole, are probably more vulnerable to ocean thermal forcing and peripheral thinning than inferred previously from existing numerical ice-sheet models.”
40. John Cook – A detailed look at Hansen’s 1988 projections – Skeptical Science, 20/09/2010 – http://www.skepticalscience.com/A-detailed-look-at-Hansens-1988-projections.html
    “Had Hansen used a climate model with a climate sensitivity of approximate 3.4°C for 2xCO₂ (at least in the short-term, it’s likely larger in the long-term due to slow-acting feedbacks), he would have projected the ensuing rate of global surface temperature change accurately. Not only that, but he projected the spatial distribution of the warming with a high level of accuracy.”
41. James Hansen (2007) – Scientific reticence and sea level rise – Environmental Research Letters 2 024002 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002 – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute – http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen.pdf
    “I believe there is a pressure on scientists to be conservative. Papers are accepted for publication more readily if they do not push too far and are larded with caveats. Caveats are essential to science, being born in skepticism, which is essential to the process of investigation and verification. But there is a question of degree.”
42. Keynyn Brysse, Naomi Oreskes, Jessica O’Reilly and Michael Oppenheimer (2013) – Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? – Global Environmental Change 23:327–337 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008 – Program in Science, Technology and Society, Office of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Alberta; History and Science Studies, University of California; Department of Sociology, College of St. Benedict/St. John’s University; Department of Geosciences and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
    “It is not merely that dramatic claims open scientists to criticisms from skeptics and other external opponents; dramatic claims lay scientists open to criticism from their peers. Because science operates according to a prestige economy in which reputation is paramount, anything that might incite the distrust of one’s peers is to be avoided.”
43. Douglas Fischer (2011) – Evidence builds that scientists underplay climate impacts – The Daily Climate, 18/10/2011 – http://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2011/10/climate-alarmism
    “’In reality,’ Oreskes said, ‘scientists skew their results away from worst-case, doomsday scenarios. ‘Many people in the scientific community have felt that it’s important to be conservative – that it protects your credibility,’ she said. ‘There’s a low-end bias. It has led scientists to understate, rather than overstate, the impacts’.”
44. Naomi Oreskes, Michael Oppenheimer, Dale Jamieson (2019) – Scientists Have Been Underestimating the Pace of Climate Change – Scientific American, 19/08/2019 – https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/scientists-have-been-underestimating-the-pace-of-climate-change/
    “A second reason for underestimation involves an asymmetry in how scientists think about error and its effects on their reputations. Many scientists worry that if they over-estimate a threat, they will lose credibility, whereas if they under-estimate it, it will have little (if any) reputational impact.”
45. Hans Joachim Schellnhüber (2018) – Foreword to David Spratt and Brian Dunlop (2018), What Lies Beneath: The Understatement of Climate Existential Risk Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – http://climateextremes.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/What-Lies-Beneath-V3-LR-Blank5b15d.pdf
    “There is the Devil’s Advocate Reward … if a researcher comes up with an entirely new thought, experts tend to reflexively dismiss it as «speculative», which is effectively a death warrant in the academic world. Whereas those who criticize the idea will be applauded, rewarded and promoted! This phenomenon is evident in every seminar, colloquium or Iearned-society assembly.”
46. Guy R. McPherson (2013) – Climate-change summary and update – Nature Bats Last, 27/04/2013 – Professor emeritus at the University of Arizona – http://guymcpherson.com/2013/01/climate-change-summary-and-update/
    “Even mainstream scientists minimize the message at every turn. As we’ve known for years, scientists almost invariably underplay climate impacts. I’m not implying conspiracy. Science selects for conservatism. Academia selects for extreme conservatism. These folks are loathe to risk drawing undue attention to themselves by pointing out there might be a threat to civilization … If the truth is dire, they can find another, not-so-dire version.”
47. Guy R. McPherson (2016) Íbid.
    “The recent and near-future rises in temperature are occurring and will occur at least an order of magnitude faster than the worst of all prior Mass Extinctions. Habitat for human animals is disappearing throughout the world, and abrupt climate change has barely begun. In the near future, habitat for Homo sapiens will be gone. Shortly thereafter, all humans will die.”
48. Ian Leslie (2016) – The sugar conspiracy – The Guardian, 07/04/2016 – https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/apr/07/the-sugar-conspiracy-robert-lustig-john-yudkin
    “John Yudkin’s scientific reputation had been all but sunk. He found himself uninvited from international conferences on nutrition. Research journals refused his papers. He was talked about by fellow scientists as an eccentric, a lone obsessive. Eventually, he became a scare story. Sheldon Reiser, one of the few researchers to continue working on the effects of refined carbohydrates and sugar through the 1970s, told Gary Taubes in 2011: ‘Yudkin was so discredited. He was ridiculed in a way. And anybody else who said something bad about sucrose [sugar], they’d say, ‘He’s just like Yudkin.’.»
49. Michael E. Mann (2012) – The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines – Columbia University Press – Penn State Earth System Science Center – ISBN-13: 978-0231152549 – 384 págs.
    “Finally, there is the front line of the climate change denial ground attack … Their primary tool is the ‘cut-and-paste,’ the repetition of contrarian talking points in arguments with friends, neighbors, relatives, and coworkers; in letters to editors of local newspapers; in online newsgroups; in comments sections of Internet news articles; and on blogs. Their role is not to be underestimated, as false statements repeated often enough help create the echo chamber of climate change disinformation.”
50. William Freudenburg and Violetta Muselli (2008) – Can Scientific Bias Be Collective? The Asymmetry of Scientific Challenge in Global Warming Research – Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association Annual Meeting, Hilton San Francisco – University of California, Santa Barbara; University of Louisiana-Lafayette; University of Alberta – http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/3/0/9/1/9/pages309195/p309195-1.php
    “Work on Asymmetries of Scientific Challenge (ASC) suggests that, if findings supporting certain conclusions are subjected to significant challenges, while those supporting opposing conclusions are not, the result can be a collective scientific bias — one that, ironically, will be the opposite of the work being “” The ASC hypothesis may be relevant to global climate disruption research: organized industrial interests have consistently challenged mainstream scientific findings, but «optimistic» arguments have not been subjected to similar levels of criticism.”
51. William R. Freudenburg and Violetta Muselli (2010) – Global warming estimates, media expectations, and the asymmetry of scientific challenge – Global Environmental Change 3:483-491 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.04.003 – Environmental Studies Program, University of California, Santa Barbara
    “Given that the overall ratio between ‘‘worse than thought’’ versus ‘‘better than thought’’ findings is well over 20:1 — 117 ‘‘worse than thought’’ findings, versus just 5 in the other direction — it should also not be a surprise that the ASC perspective was found to do a significantly better job of predicting the actual pattern of findings revealed by the data (p < .001).”
52. David Michaels and Celeste Monforton (2005) – Manufacturing Uncertainty: Contested Science and the Protection of the Public’s Health and Environment – American Journal of Public Health Supplement 1:S39-S48 doi:10.2105/AJPH.2004.043059
    “There were no hearings or debate on the DQA [Data Quality Act], meaning no legislative history exists to help clarify Congress’s intentions in passing it …The DQA sounds harmless; it is difficult to argue against ensuring the quality and integrity of government-disseminated information. Yet, its devious conception suggests its intentions are not completely innocent.”
53. Valentin Amrhein, Sander Greenland & Blake McShane (2019) – Scientists rise up against statistical significance – Nature 567:305-307 doi: 10.1038/d41586-019-00857-9 – Professor of zoology, University of Basel; Professor of epidemiology and statistics, University of California, Los Angeles; Statistical methodologist and professor of marketing, Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois – https://www.nature.com/magazine-assets/d41586-019-00857-9/d41586-019-00857-9.pdf
    “Let’s be clear about what must stop: we should never conclude there is ‘no difference’ or ‘no association’ just because a P value is larger than a threshold such as 0.05 or, equivalently, because a confidence interval includes zero. Neither should we conclude that two studies conflict because one had a statistically significant result and the other did not. These errors waste research efforts and misinform policy decisions.”
54. Michael Oppenheimer, Naomi Oreskes, Dale Jamieson, Keynyn Brysse, Jessica O’Reilly, Matthew Shindell and Milena Wazeck (2019) – Discerning Experts: The Practices of Scientific Assessment for Environmental Policy – University of Chicago Press – ISBN-13: 978-0226602011 – 304 Págs.
    “The Canadian acid rain program set the pH reference value for acidification at 6, while the NAPAP Interim Assessment chose pH 5 … many lakes that the Canadians would consider to be acidifies disappear from concern in the NAPAP Interim Assessment.” (p. 213)
55. Thomas R. Karl et al (2015) – Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus – Science doi:10.1126/science.aaa5632 – National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) – 9 autores
    “Indeed, based on our new analysis, the IPCC’s statement of two years ago – that the global surface temperature ‘has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years’ – is no longer valid.”
56. Christian S. Zang et al (2019) – Regional trend changes in recent surface warming – Climate Dynamics 52:6463–6473 doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4524-5- 12/11/2018 – Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences
    “Our results demonstrate that similar to previous findings at the global level, statistical testing accounting for the multiple testing nature of the problem argues against a robust detectability of the ‘warming hiatus’ at the regional level.”
57. Stephan Lewandowsky et al (2015) – Seepage: Climate change denial and its effect on the scientific community – Global Environmental Change 33:1–13 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.013 – 5 autores
    “We suggest that in response to constant, and sometimes toxic, public challenges, scientists have over-emphasized scientific uncertainty, and have inadvertently allowed contrarian claims to affect how they themselves speak, and perhaps even think, about their own research. We show that even when scientists are rebutting contrarian talking points, they often do so within a framing and within a linguistic landscape created by denial, and often in a manner that reinforces the contrarian claim. This ‘‘seepage’’ has arguably contributed to a widespread tendency to understate the severity of the climate problem.”
58. Michael E. Mann (2016) – I’m a scientist who has gotten death threats. I fear what may happen under Trump. – The Washington Post, 16/12/2016 – Penn State Earth System Science Center – https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-is-what-the-coming-attack-on-climate-science-could-look-like/2016/12/16/e015cc24-bd8c-11e6-94ac-3d324840106c_story.html
    “My Penn State colleagues looked with horror at the police tape across my office door. I had been opening mail at my desk that afternoon in August 2010 when a dusting of white powder fell from the folds of a letter. I dropped the letter, held my breath and slipped out the door as swiftly as I could, shutting it behind me. First I went to the bathroom to scrub my hands. Then I called the police. It turned out to be cornstarch, not anthrax. And it was just one in a long series of threats I’ve received since the late 1990s.”
59. James Delingpole – An English class for trolls, professional offence-takers and climate activists – The Telegraph, 07/04/2013 – http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100210866/an-english-class-for-trolls-professional-offence-takers-and-climate-activists/
    “The last thing I would want is for Monbiot, Mann, Flannery, Jones, Hansen and the rest of the Climate rogues’ gallery to be granted the mercy of quick release. Publicly humiliated? Yes please. Having all their crappy books remaindered? Definitely … But hanging? Hell no. Hanging is far too good for such ineffable toerags.”
60. Mark Bowen (2008) – Censoring Science. Inside the Political Attack on Dr. James Hansen and the Truth of Global Warming – Dutton, Penguin Group – ISBN-10: 0525950141 – 336 Págs.
    “On the 24th, Larry Travis was hit and severely injured by a truck as he walked across Broadway on his way to work, Jim’s (Hansen) car was also broken into around that time, and the house in New Jersey in which he and Annie had raised their children burned to the ground. Darnell Cain, Jim’s assistant admits to being ‘sufficiently lazy and negligent to not update the NASA public records with Jim’s new address when he moved to Pennsylvania’.”
61. Lesley M. Head and Theresa Harada (2017) – Ibid
    “There was a shared understanding among the sample that the strong climate change denialist movement was a source of pressure and a cause of anxiety … the tactics for dealing with the negativity of denialist discourses include developing a sense of stoicism, being able to laugh it off with ‘graveyard humour’ and developing a ‘thick skin’.”
62. Monika Böhm et al (2012) – The conservation status of the world’s reptiles – Biological Conservation 157:372–385 doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2012.07.015 – 20/12/2012 – Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London – https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/23870/1/Manuscript_Bohm_et_al_Conservation_status_of_the_world’s_reptiles.pdf – 244 autores
    “Nearly one in five reptilian species are threatened with extinction, with another one in five species classed as Data Deficient … Conservation actions specifically need to mitigate the effects of human-induced habitat loss and harvesting, which are the predominant threats to reptiles.»
63. Michaela M. Hofmann et al (2010) – The impact of conservation on the status of the world’s vertebrates – Science 330:1503-1509 doi:10.1126/science.1194442 – 10/12/2010 – UCN SSC Species Survival Commission, c/o United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre – https://bit.ly/2kWaF38 – 172 autores
    “One-fifth of species are classified as Threatened, and we show that this figure is increasing: On average, 52 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians move one category closer to extinction each year.”
64. Hans ter Steege et al (2016) – Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species – Science Advances 1:e1500936 doi:10.1126/sciadv.1500936 – 20/11/2015 – Biodiversity Dynamics, Naturalis Biodiversity Center, The Netherlands + Ecology and Biodiversity Group, Utrecht University – https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/10/e1500936.full.pdf – 159 autores
    “We predict that most of the world’s >40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as globally threatened … improved governance can play in preventing large-scale extinctions in the tropics in this century.»
65. Monika Karmin et al (2015) – A recent bottleneck of Y chromosome diversity coincides with a global change in culture – Genome Research 25:459-466 doi:10.1101/gr.186684.114 – Estonian Biocentre + Department of Evolutionary Biology, Institute of Molecular and Cell Biology, University of Tartu + – https://genome.cshlp.org/content/25/4/459.full.pdf+html – 107 autores
    “In contrast to demographic reconstructions based on mtDNA, we infer a second strong bottleneck in Y-chromosome lineages dating to the last 10 ky. We hypothesize that this bottleneck is caused by cultural changes affecting variance of reproductive success among males.”
66. Climate Action Report – U.S Department of State – https://2009-2017.state.gov/e/oes/climate/climateactionreport/index.htm
    “The 2016 Second Biennial Report of the United States of America presents the actions we are undertaking to deliver on our climate goals and to support our global partners.”
67. G. Morgan and M. Henrion (1992) – Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis – Cambridge University Press – Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania – ISBN-13: 978-0521427449 – 346 Págs.
68. Sean Salleh (2013) – Improving your Quantitative Data with Expert Elicitation – Decision Analytics Platform – https://lumina.com/improving-your-quantitative-data-with-expert-elicitation/
    “Don’t have enough hard data to make a decision? Then have people vote on it. But not just any people – get the experts to vote on the matter and do it in a way that still allows you to measure the uncertainty associated with that vote. That’s the basis of expert elicitation to improve quantitative data.”
69. Timothy M. Lenton (2012) – Arctic Climate Tipping Points – AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 41:10-22 doi10.1007/s13280-011-0221-x – College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter + UK and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
    “Results from an expert elicitation concur that if global warming exceeds 4 ⁰C there is a high probability of passing the tipping point (Kriegler et al. 2009). An alternative surface energy balance model predicts a more distant threshold at around 6 ⁰C global warming (J. Bamber, personal communication). However, recent work suggests the tipping point could be much closer at 0.7–1.7ºC global warming (A. Robinson and A. Ganopolski, personal communication).”
70. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Anders Levermann and Malte Meinshausen (2014) – Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning – Climatic Change 127:579–586 doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research + Climate Analytics; Institute of Physics, Potsdam University; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne
    “Within this century, a reduction of the Atlantic overturning is a robust climatic phenomena that intensifies with global warming and needs to be accounted for in global adaptation strategies.»
71. Jonathan L. Bamber et al (2019) – Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 116:11195-11200 doi:10.1073/pnas.1817205116 – 20/05/2019 – School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/116/23/11195.full.pdf – 5 autores
    “Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects … Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes.”
72. A.G. Schuur et al (2013) – Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change – Climatic Change 119:359–374 doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 –University of Florida – http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10584-013-0730-7.pdf – 42 autores
    “Permafrost C emissions on top of rapidly growing fossil fuel emissions would make temperature targets significantly harder to achieve than currently assessed by the IPCC. ”
73. Karen E. Jenni et al (2012) – Expert elicitations of energy penalties for carbon capture technologies – International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 12:136–145 doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.11.022, – Insight Decisions, LLC
    “This paper describes the results of expert assessments about the range of likely energy penalties (EP) … EP is a large component and these results suggest that capture costs are likely to fall both through investments in research and through the process of commercializing the technology in response to carbon prices.”
74. Joeri Rogelj et al (2019) – Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets – Nature 571:335-342 doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z – 17/07/2019 – Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London – 5 autores
    “Differences in remaining carbon budget estimates can be understood if a set of potential contributing factors are carefully taken into account. Here we present a conceptual framework that allows one to track, understand, update and explain estimates of the remaining carbon budget over time. ”
75. Antony Millner et al (2012) – Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change? – Climatic Change 116:427–436 doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0620-4 – Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California – 4 autores
    “Our statistical analysis is exact, and does not rely on asymptotic methods that only hold for large samples … If anything, it is likely that accounting for the ambiguity in our knowledge recommends stronger mitigation policies than those based on conventional probabilistic decision tools … “Our experimental design was intentionally conservative … and is likely to understate the presence of ambiguity.”
76. Jeroen P van der Sluijs, Rinie van Est and Monique Riphagen (2010) – Beyond consensus: reflections from a democratic perspective on the interaction between climate politics and science – Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2:409–415 doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2010.10.003 – Science Technology and Society, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University; Rathenau Instituut –
    “Interfacing strategy 1: … science informs policy by producing objective, valid, and reliable knowledge … This is the classic ‘technocratic’ view of governance dependent on an assumed perfection/perfectibility of science in theory and also (progressively) in practice … Within this Linear Model, scientific uncertainty is seen as a temporary shortcoming in knowledge … The drawback of this approach is that there is a semblance of certainty, for example, because the numbers coming from the increasingly complex models suggest that there is more knowledge and more certainty than is actually the case.”
77. Ed Hawkins et al (2016) – Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections – Climate Dynamics 46:3807–3819 doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8 – NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading – https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00382-015-2806-8.pdf – 4 autores
    “Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty which it is important to understand and quantify, especially for projections of near-term regional climate … These results suggest that climate projections need to be performed with many more ensemble members than at present, using a range of ocean initial conditions, if the uncertainty in near-term regional climate is to be adequately quantified.”
78. Michael Oppenheimer, Brian C. O’Neill and Mort Webster (2008) – Negative learning – Climatic Change 89:155–217 doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9405-1 – Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International AffairsPrinceton University + Department of Geosciences, Princeton University; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis + Institute for the Study of Society and EnvironmentNational Center for Atmospheric Research; MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global ChangeMassachusetts Institute of Technology – http://www.princeton.edu/step/people/faculty/michael-oppenheimer/recent-publications/climatechange2008.pdf
    “New technical information may lead to scientific beliefs that diverge over time from the a posteriori right answer. We call this phenomenon, which is particularly problematic in the global change arena, negative learning. Negative learning may have affected policy in important cases, including stratospheric ozone depletion, dynamics of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and population and energy projections.”
79. Stéphane Hallegatte and Katharine J. Mach – Make climate-change assessments more relevant – Nature 534:613–615 doi:10.1038/534613a – Climate Change Policy Team, The World Bank; Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science – http://www.nature.com/polopoly_fs/1.20155!/menu/main/topColumns/topLeftColumn/pdf/534613a.pdf
    “Four aspects of uncertainty must be evaluated and communicated: probability ranges that can be narrowed with future research; unknowns that are linked to a deep lack of knowledge; uncertain reactions that depend on societal decisions and geopolitical events; and other areas of uncertainty that reflect random or chaotic features of the climate system.”
80. M.D. Mastrandrea et al (2010) – Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University – 13 autores
    https://wg1.ipcc.ch/AR6/documents/AR5_Uncertainty_Guidance_Note.pdf
    “In summary, communicate uncertainty carefully, using calibrated language for key findings, and provide traceable accounts describing your evaluations of evidence and 6 agreement in your chapter.”
81. Gary W. Yohe (2019) – A review of Discerning Experts – Climatic Change 155:295–309 doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02472-z – 12/06/2019 – Huffington Foundation Professor of Economics, and Environmental StudiesWesleyan University – https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10584-019-02472-z.pdf
    “A consensus conclusion that X causes Y with medium or low confidence does not mean that nobody in the decision room objects to the conclusion that X causes Y. It means, instead, that nobody in the room objects to the authors’ more detailed analysis of process and evidence that can support only a medium- or low-confidence statement. It also means that nobody in the room objects to including the medium or low confidence conclusion in the assessment because the potential consequences are large. It is critical that private citizens also understand this meaning. It is also critical for all to understand that the second ‘no objection’ consensus relies on a risk-based (risk management) perspective.”
82. Naomi Oreskes, Michael Oppenheimer, Dale Jamieson – Scientists Have Been Underestimating the Pace of Climate Change – Scientific American, 19/08/2019 – https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/scientists-have-been-underestimating-the-pace-of-climate-change/
    “The push toward agreement may also be driven by a mental model that sees facts as matters about which all reasonable people should be able to agree versus differences of opinion or judgment that are potentially irresolvable …The drive toward consensus may therefore be an attempt to present the findings of the assessment as matters of fact rather than judgment.”
83. Jeroen van der Sluijs et al (1998) – Anchoring devices in science for policy: the case of consensus around climate sensitivity – Social Studies of Science 28:291-323 doi:10.1177/030631298028002004
84. Michael Oppenheimer et al (2007) – The limits of consensus – Science 317:1505-1506 doi:10.1126/science.1144831 – Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University – http://www.princeton.edu/step/people/faculty/michael-oppenheimer/research/Oppenheimer-et-al-(2007)-The-limits-of-Consensus-.pdf – 4 autores
    “Setting aside or minimizing the importance of key structural uncertainties in underlying processes is a frequent outcome of the drive for consensus [refs] … A fuller accounting of uncertainty would be more appropriate … The emphasis on consensus in IPCC reports, however, has put the spotlight on expected outcomes, which then become anchored via numerical estimates in the minds of policy-makers.”
85. James Lawrence Powell (2011) – The Inquisition of Climate Science – Columbia University Press – National Science Board – ISBN-13: 978-0231157186 – 240 Págs.
    “First, the larger a group, the more conservative its statements. Extreme positions do not survive a process of drafting by 51 scientists from different disciplines and countries, with government bureaucrats having final oversight. The IPCC is by its nature a conservative organization prone to understatement. This is not only true in theory, it is obvious when we compare the current evidence for global warming with the statements of the IPCC in its 2007 report.” (p. 18-19)
86. Naomi Oreskes, Michael Oppenheimer, Dale Jamieson (2019) – Scientists Have Been Underestimating the Pace of Climate Change – Scientific American, 19/08/2019 – https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/scientists-have-been-underestimating-the-pace-of-climate-change/
    “How does this [consensus] lead to underestimation? … Wherever there is a range of possible outcomes that includes a long, high-end tail of probability, the area of overlap will necessarily lie at or near the low end. Error bars can be (and generally are) used to express the range of possible outcomes, but it may be difficult to achieve consensus on the high end of the error estimate.”
87. Keynyn Brysse et al (2013) (Íbidem)
    “The assessments whose outcomes we report here are inevitably structured to reach consensus. Other autores have noted the tendency of consensus processes to obscure or avoid reporting likelihoods of extreme outcomes and outlying views (van der Sluijs et al., 2010; Patt, 1999; Polson and Curtis, 2010). Our additional observation is that this process is not symmetric, but is biased to avoid emphasizing dramatic outcomes.”
88. Naomi Oreskes, Michael Oppenheimer, Dale Jamieson (2019) – Scientists Have Been Underestimating the Pace of Climate Change – Scientific American, 19/08/2019 – https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/scientists-have-been-underestimating-the-pace-of-climate-change/
    “The combination of these three factors—the push for univocality, the belief that conservatism is socially and politically protective, and the reluctance to make estimates at all when the available data are contradictory—can lead to ‘least common denominator’ results—minimalist conclusions that are weak or incomplete … We are not suggesting that every example of underestimation is necessarily caused by the factors we observed in our work, nor that the demand for consensus always leads to conservatism. Without looking closely at any given case, we cannot be sure whether the effects we observed are operating or not.”
89. Ottmar Edenhofer et al (Eds.) (2011) – Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srren/SRREN_Full_Report.pdf – 11 autores
90. Mark Lynas (2011) – Conflicted roles over renewables – Nature Climate Change 1:228-229 doi:10.1038/nclimate1177 –
    “Yet it turned out that a Greenpeace campaigner was in a pole position in the SRREN, which gave the appearance that he might have had unfair influence over the content of the report, through the inclusion of material which had originally been commissioned and published by Greenpeace … Greenpeace International’s Renewable Energy Director, Sven Teske, was a lead author on chapter 10 of the SRREN … merely the appearance of conflict of interest is sufficient to require action, as Working Group I’s guidance note makes clear.”
91. Stefan Rahmstorf – New Video: Mann and Rahmstorf on IPCC 2013 – Climate Denial Crock of the Week, 05/11/2013 – http://climatecrocks.com/2013/11/05/new-video-mann-and-rahmstorf-on-ipcc-2013/
    “The IPCC has in the past underestimated important aspects of climate change … there are some clear examples where the IPCC got it wrong and got it wrong in the direction of, unfortunately, underestimating the scale of the problem. Now you can of course debate whether it is a good thing or a bad thing that IPCC reports are conservative, but the most important thing is that you know that it’s conservative, so you understand the IPCC reports in the correct way.”
92. United Nations General Assembly – 43rd session resolution
    “The General Assembly … endorses action of the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme in jointly establishing an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to provide international coordinated scientific assessments of the magnitude, timing and potential environmental and socio-economic impact of climate change and realistic response strategies.”
93. Shardul Agrawala (1998) – Context and Early Origins of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Climatic Change 39:605-620 doi:10.1023/A:1005315532386 – Science, Technology and Environmental Policy Program, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University – http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/klu/clim/1998/00000039/00000004/00162214?crawler=true
    “Instead, the trigger for the IPCC was … the dissatisfaction in the US about the AGGG, and sharply differing views on climate change amongst various US government agencies and the White House administration. The subsequent shape the IPCC took reflected a common denominator agreement between various US agencies.”
94. Conference Statement – Statement on Implications for Global Security – World Conference on the Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security, Toronto, 30/06/1988 – http://www.cmos.ca/ChangingAtmosphere1988e.pdf
    “Humanity is conducting an unintended, uncontrolled, globally pervasive experiment… Reduce CO2 emissions by approximately 20% of 1988 levels by the year 2005 as an initial global goal. Clearly, the industrialized nations have a responsibility to lead the way, both through their national energy policies and their bilateral and multilateral assistance arrangements.”
95. Svante Arrhenius (1896) – On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature on the Ground – Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science 41:237-276 doi:10.1080/14786449608620846 – http://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf
    “To get an increase of 3.4 ºC it will be necessary to alter the quantity of carbonic acid till it reaches a value nearly midway between 2 and 2.5 [its present mean] … A simple calculation shows that the temperature on the Arctic regions would rise about 8º to 9 ºC if the carbonic acid increased to 2,5 or 3 times its present value.”
96. Ferran Puig Vilar (2019) – Dos procesos climáticos fallidos – La Maleta de Portbou 36:43-51 – https://lamaletadeportbou.com/articulos/16274/
    [Este texto contiene elementos de la historia de la ciencia del cambio climático y de su repercusión pública a partir de los años 1950.]
97. James Gustave Speth (2008) – Report to the Council on Environmental Quality (Reprint): Foreword – Dean, School of Environment and Forestry, Yale University – https://static01.nyt.com/packages/pdf/science/woodwellreport.pdf
    “The [1979] report’s contents were alarming. The report predicted “a warming that will probably be conspicuous within the next twenty years … the time for implementing the policies is fast passing.” … I soon presented the report to President Carter … The new Department of Energy reacted negatively … promptly produced a counter memorandum.”
98. Lyndon B. Johnson (1965) – Special Message to the Congress on Conservation and Restoration of Natural Beauty – President of the United States – http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=27285
    “Large-scale pollution of air and waterways is no respecter of political boundaries, and its effects extend far beyond those who cause it … This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through radioactive materials and a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.”
99. Roger Revelle and Charles David Keeling (1965) – Restoring the Quality of Our Environment – The White House – Environmental Pollution Panel, President’s Science Advisory Committee – http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab/Caldeira%20downloads/PSAC,%201965,%20Restoring%20the%20Quality%20of%20Our%20Environment.pdf
    “…by the year 2000 there will be about 25% more CO2 in our atmosphere than at present [and] this will modify the heat balance of the atmosphere to such an extent that marked changes in climate, not controllable through local or even national efforts, could occur.”
100. Michael Oppenheimer, Naomi Oreskes, Dale Jamieson, Keynyn Brysse, Jessica O’Reilly, Matthew Shindell and Milena Wazeck (2019) – Íbidem
     “Scientific assessments do not just summarize existing knowledge; they also produce new knowledge … they are active sites of epistemic intervention.” (p. 208,211)
101. Editorial, 24/09/2015 – Using my religion – Nature Climate Change 5:899 doi:10.1038/nclimate2821 – http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n10/pdf/nclimate2821.pdf
     “The IPCC … has so far failed to sufficiently engage with the social sciences on a disciplinary basis. For instance, only three of the 35 coordinating lead authors of Working Group III report were from social science subjects other than economics [ref]. That is not enough.”
102. Andreas Bjurström and Merritt Polk (2011) – Physical and economic bias in climate change research. A scientometric study of IPCC third assessment report – Climatic Change 108:1-22 doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0018-8 – Human Ecology, School of Global StudiesUniversity of Gothenburg – https://bit.ly/2TaUpZ5
     “WG1 is delineated to the physical sciences, and detached from the politically sensitive issues of WG3. The scientific authority has consequently been high for WG1 and low for WG3 … WG2, on the other hand, although strongly dominated by the natural sciences, already has a broad knowledge base with integrated assessments of natural and social systems. ”
103. Graham Readfearn (2018) – ‘Vast Blind Spot’: IPCC Accused of Ignoring ‘Decades Long’ Fossil Fuel Misinformation Campaign on Climate – Desmogblog, 12/10/2018 – https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/10/12/ipcc-accused-ignoring-research-fossil-fuel-funded-misinformation-campaign
     “Professor Matthew Hornsey of the University of Queensland in Australia has also researched climate science denial … He said: “This is something that most neutral observers would agree is a big factor in stopping progress on climate change, particularly in Australia and the U.S. … But I can also understand why the authors might want to steer clear of making any explosive statements around this.”.
104. Robert Mendelsohn (2016) – Should The IPCC Assessment Reports Be An Integrated Assessment? – Climate Change Economics 7:1640002 doi:10.1142/S2010007816400029 – Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Studies
     “Although these three manuscripts must be integrated for a comprehensive analysis, they are largely written independently … The cost results of Working Group III … cannot be compared to the benefit estimates of Working Group II.”
105. Damian Carrington – IPCC officials admit mistake over melting Himalayan glaciers – The Guardian, 20/01/2010 – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistake
     “In a statement (pdf), the IPCC said the paragraph ‘refers to poorly substantiated estimates of rate of recession and date for the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers … The IPCC regrets the poor application of well-established IPCC procedures in this instance.’.”
106. Tuomo M. Saloranta (2004) – Post-Normal Science and the Global Climate Change Issue – Climatic Change doi:10.1023/A:1010636822581 – Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway
     “This parallels well with the philosophy of Post-Normal Science, according to which the analytical rigour of Normal Science is complemented with, among others, the Extended Peer Community. The benefits of the Extended Peer Community of the IPCC are also demonstrated in Edwards and Schneider (2001).”
107. Myanna Lahsen (2013) – Ethnographic Exploration: The Human Faces of Climate Skepticism – Earth System Science Center, Brazilian Institute for Space Research (INPE) – http://www.gisclimat.fr/sites/default/files/Myanna_Lahsen.pdf
     “Particularly troubling is that the consensus/IPCC serves to mute the scientific debate. Those who are skeptical are reluctant to express that because they don’t want to go against the IPCC, against the consensus, and are concerned that they will be accused of being in the pocket in the coal industry. The result is that a large segment within the scientific community feels differently from what is expressed by the IPCC yet don’t speak out. They are afraid of getting tainted [CLEAN] and so don’t engage in debate about the issue.”
108. Joseph Romm – IPCC’s Planned Obsolescence: Fifth Assessment Report Will Ignore Crucial Permafrost Carbon Feedback! – Climate Progress, 02/12/2012 – https://thinkprogress.org/ipccs-planned-obsolescence-fifth-assessment-report-will-ignore-crucial-permafrost-carbon-feedback-5d2289e9461d/
     “A key reason the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change keeps issuing instantly irrelevant reports is that it keeps ignoring the latest climate science.” … That matters because the permafrost permamelt contains a staggering “1.5 trillion tons of frozen carbon, about twice as much carbon as contained in the atmosphere, much of which would be released as methane. Methane is 25 times as potent a heat-trapping gas as CO2 over a 100 year time horizon, but 72 to 100 times as potent over 20 years!”
109. Gary W. Yohe (2019) – A review of Discerning Experts – Climatic Change 155:295–309 doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02472-z – Huffington Foundation Professor of Economics, and Environmental StudiesWesleyan University – https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10584-019-02472-z.pdf
     “At the scoping meeting for the AR5, for example, a chair of a working group proclaimed that his authors would not be allowed to assess a result born of a single peer-reviewed paper … this seemed reasonable … Could one paper be an outlier? Sure. Is there danger in attributing risk to a single event? Sure. Would that be an unsupportable outlier? Maybe. But these are questions for the author teams to decide without prejudgment from the chairs.”
110. Bas J. van Ruijven (2016) – Mind the gap – the case for medium level emission scenarios – Climatic Change 138:361–367 doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1744-8 – National Center for Atmospheric Research
     “I argue that the research on emission scenarios over the past few years has focused on low emission scenarios while producing few medium level emission scenarios … there is currently a very limited number of scenarios that describe real-world conditions of imperfect climate policy combined with technology restrictions.”
111. Todd Sanford et al (2014) – The climate policy narrative for a dangerously warming world – Nature Climate Change 4:164–166 doi:10.1038/nclimate2148 – Union of Concerned Scientists – https://bit.ly/2ITrapN – 4 autores
     “In its most recent assessment, the IPCC makes no judgement on the relative likelihood of the magnitude of future warming associated with each RCP in presenting climate model projections, implicitly treating all scenarios as equivalently plausible … Policymakers thus have no clear scientific guidance for confronting and managing the growing risk of high-magnitude warming.”
112. Mark Carey, Lincoln C. James and Hannah A. Fuller (2014) – A new social contract for the IPCC – Nature Climate Change 4:1038–1039 doi:10.1038/nclimate2442 – Robert D. Clark Honors College, University of Oregon
     “The IPCC’s current disciplinary bias and organizational disjuncture is unlikely to change because IPCC authorship is by invitation only, from a group of natural scientists and economists who may not embrace the work of most environmental social sciences and humanities fields and who lack an understanding of which disciplines and individuals’ credentials are valuable to climate change research. ”
113. John D. Sterman and Linda Booth Sweeney (2002) – Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming – System Dynamics Review 18:207-240 doi:10.1002/sdr.242 – Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/cloudy_skies1.pdf
     “Supposedly nontechnical reports such as the IPCC’s Summary for Policymakers are far too technical for the average person—and elected official—to understand. Such presentations are unlikely to overcome the power of “common sense” and “wait and see”. In such an environment, the corrective feedback of a free press may be ineffective.”
114. Michael Oppenheimer, Naomi Oreskes, Dale Jamieson, Keynyn Brysse, Jessica O’Reilly, Matthew Shindell and Milena Wazeck (2019) – Íbidem
     “Experts who have taken policy positions regarding the topic under consideration are often view as biased and may be excluded.”
115. Neil MacFarquhar – Review Finds Flaws in U.N. Climate Panel Structure – The New York Times, 30/08/2010 – http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/31/world/31nations.html
     “The committee noted that some climate panel leaders had been criticized for public statements perceived as advocating specific policies. “Straying into advocacy can only hurt I.P.C.C.’s credibility,” the report said.”
116. Brad Wible (2014) – IPCC lessons from Berlin – Science 345:34 doi:10.1126/science.345.6192.34-a
     “Although the underlying technical report from WGIII was accepted by the IPCC … The deleted content focused largely on historic emissions trends analyzed by country income groups and international cooperation … Others argue that SPM should explicitly be coproduced with governments ”
117. Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows (2012) – A new paradigm for climate change – Nature Climate Change 2:639–640 doi:10.1038/nclimate1646 – Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Mechanical Civil and Aerospace Engineering, University of Manchester; Sustainable Consumption Institute, School of Mechanical Civil and Aerospace Engineering, University of Manchester – http://kevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Pre-edited-version-A-new-paradigm-for-climate-change-2012-.pdf
     “When it comes to avoiding a 2 °C rise, ‘impossible’ is translated into ‘difficult but doable’, whereas ‘urgent and radical’ emerge as ‘challenging’ — all to appease the god of economics (or, more precisely, finance). For example, to avoid exceeding the maximum rate of emission reduction dictated by economists, ‘impossibly’ early peaks in emissions are assumed, together with naive notions about ‘big’ engineering and the deployment rates of low-carbon infrastructure.”
118. Robert Stavins (2014) – Is the IPCC Government Approval Process Broken? – An Economic View of the Environment – Professor of Business and Government + Director of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program + Chairman of the Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Group – http://www.robertstavinsblog.org/2014/04/25/is-the-ipcc-government-approval-process-broken-2/
     “It became clear that the only way the assembled government representatives would approve text for SPM.5.2 was essentially to remove all “controversial” text (that is, text that was uncomfortable for any one individual government), which meant deleting almost 75% of the text, including nearly all explications and examples under the bolded headings. In more than one instance, specific examples or sentences were removed at the will of only one or two countries, because under IPCC rules, the dissent of one country is sufficient to grind the entire approval process to a halt unless and until that country can be appeased.”
119. Steve Keen (2019) – Climate Change: Extinction or Adaptation? – Patreon, 13/10/2019 – Professor of Economics + Head of the School of Economics, Politics and History, Kingston University – https://www.patreon.com/posts/climate-change-30728029
     “This ballpark is distinctly Minor League. If a 4°C increase in global temperature over pre-industrial levels is only going to reduce GDP per capita by between 2% and 4%, and this damage will occur in the distant future, why would you even bother worrying about Global Warming today? Because, in a word, this analysis is nuts! It is crazy to think that today temperature-GDP relationship tells you anything at all about what will happen to the economy via Global Warming. Though the proposition is dressed up in superficially academic language.”
120. Charles Kolstad, Kevin Urama et al (2014) – Climate Change 2014: Mitigation – Chapter 3: Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – 30 autores
     “This section surveys some of the values at stake in climate change, and examines how far these values can be measured, combined, or weighed against each other. Each value is subject to debate and disagreement. For example, it is debatable whether nature has value in its own right, apart from the benefit it brings to human beings. Decision‐making about climate change is therefore likely to be contentious. Since values constitute only one part of ethics, if an action will increase value overall it by no means follows that it should be done.” (p. 220)
121. Ottmar Edenhofer, Ramón Pichs-Madruga and Youba Sokona (2014) – Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Working Group III Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_full.pdf – 168 autores
     “Even in areas where the methods of economics can be applied in principle, they cannot be accepted without question [refs]. Particular simplifying assumptions are always required, as shown throughout this chapter … decision-makers need to keep in mind the resulting limitations of the economic analyses. For example, climate change will shorten many people’s lives … many of the common methods of valuation in economics are best designed for marginal changes … the very long time scale of climate change makes the discount rate crucial … questions of distribution become especially important and especially difficult … measuring non-market values … is fraught with difficulty … the uncertainty that surrounds climate change is very great … This degree of uncertainty sets special problems for economics [ref].” (p. 224-225)
122. Ottmar Edenhofer, Ramón Pichs-Madruga and Youba Sokona (2014) – Íbidem
     “Her [Elinor Ostrom] work provided a fundamental contribution to the understanding of collective action, trust, and cooperation in the management of common pool resources, including the atmosphere … The assessment of climate change mitigation across different levels of governance, sectors and regions has been a new focus of the Working Group III contribution to AR5. We have benefited greatly from the vision and intellectual leadership of Elinor Ostrom. ” (p. xiii)
123. Stefan Partelow (2016) – Coevolving Ostrom’s social–ecological systems (SES) framework and sustainability science: four key co-benefits – Sustainability Science 11:399-410 doi:10.1007/s11625-015-0351-3 – Leibniz Center for Tropical Marine Ecology (ZMT); Jacobs University
     “Research on social–ecological systems (SES) is scattered across many disciplines and perspectives … Elinor Ostrom’s diagnostic SES framework (SESF) can integrate and co-benefit from explicitly interlinking their development.”
124. Garrett Hardin (1968) – The Tragedy of the Commons – Science 162:1243-1248 doi:10.1126/science.162.3859.1243 – Professor Emeritus of Human Ecology in the Department of Biological Sciences at the University of California, Santa Barbara – http://www.cs.wright.edu/~swang/cs409/Hardin.pdf
     “Therein is the tragedy. Each man is locked into a system that compels him to increase his herd without limit – in a world that is limited. Ruin is the destination toward which all men rush, each pursuing his own best interest in a society that believes in the freedom of the commons. Freedom in a commons brings ruin to all.”
125. Mariano Marzo – La tragedia del bien común del clima – El Periódico, 18/03/2019 – https://www.elperiodico.com/es/opinion/20190317/la-tragedia-del-bien-comun-del-clima-cambio-climatico-articulo-opinion-mariano-marzo-7330036
     “La propuesta correctiva de Hardin, para evitar que la libertad individual en el uso de los bienes comunes lleve a todos a la ruina, es la de establecer mecanismos coercitivos previamente acordados entre los miembros de la comunidad. … Una diferencia fundamental entre la parábola de Hardin y el caso del cambio climático estriba en que en este último los principales actores no son individuos, sino los estados. ”
126. Federico Aguilera Klink (2009) – Una nota sobre la Nobel de economía Elinor Ostrom – Revista de Economía Crítica 8:4-7 – Universidad de La Laguna – http://revistaeconomiacritica.org/sites/default/files/0_nobel_economia_Elinor_Ostrom.pdf
     “Ostrom lleva años mostrando no sólo que no existe esa tragedia de manera tan inevitable como afirma erróneamente Hardin, sino que, al contrario … la gente muestra una destacada capacidad para generar sus propias reglas para poder seguir viviendo de los recursos naturales de los que depende su subsistencia sin agotarlos o destruirlos … En nuestro país es, en mi opinión, Juan Martínez Alier, el que en trabajos tan estupendos como El ecologismo de los pobres (2005), más se aproxima a las preocupaciones y planteamientos de Ostrom. ”
127. David Victor (2015) – Embed the social sciences in climate policy – Nature 520:27–29 doi:10.1038/520027a – Professor of international relations and director of the Laboratory on International Law and Regulation, University of California, San Diego + chairman of the Global Agenda Council on Governance for Sustainability at the World Economic Forum – http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-embed-the-social-sciences-in-climate-policy-1.17206
     “Fields such as sociology, political science and anthropology are central to understanding how people and societies comprehend and respond to environmental changes, and are pivotal in making effective policies to cut emissions and collaborate across the globe.”
128. Esteve Corbera et al (2015) – Patterns of authorship in the IPCC Working Group III report – Nature Climate Change 6:94-99 doi:10.1038/nclimate2782 – Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Institute of Environmental Science and Technology – 4 autores
     “Another way of exploring the network of AR5 WGIII authors is through the institutions in which authors have worked and studied … The World Bank is the most connected institution in the network … Trained economists and engineers represent 49% of the authors for whom we were able to get data for their highest academic training (125/253), whereas 15% (39/253) were trained as social scientists … among the 35 Coordinating Lead Authors (CLAs) … only 3 CLAs have been trained in social sciences other than economics.”
129. Cindy Baxter (2014) – Richard Tol Dons Cloak of Climate Denial – Desmogblog, 14/07/2014 – http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/07/14/richard-tol-dons-cloak-climate-denial
     “Throughout the session, Tol’s talk was weirdly interrupted by whooshing sounds from the back of the room where Piers “sunspots” Corbyn was inflating a huge plastic globe. It was during question time that things got interesting.  Tol, the so-called “believer” was thrown theories from across the wide world of denial.”
130. George F. DeMartino (2011) – The Economist’s Oath: On the Need for and Content of Professional Economic Ethics – Oxford University Press – Professor of Economics, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver – ISBN-13: 978-0199730568 – 272 Págs
     “We find … a herd mentality about the right way to think … a dismissal of theory, evidence, and argument about the dangers associated with unregulated asset markets; and perhaps most important, a severe overconfidence among the most influential economists about the extent of economic expertise. The economics profession failed to meet its obligations to society by failing to promote and sustain a diversity of views among its members over matters that are terribly complex and important.” (p. 171)
131. Ottmar Edenhofer, Ramón Pichs-Madruga and Youba Sokona (2014) – Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Working Group III Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_full.pdf – 168 autores
     “The research agendas of industrial ecology and ecological economics with their focus on the socioeconomic metabolism … can complement energy assessments in important manners and support the development of a broader framing of mitigation research as part of sustainability science. The socioeconomic metabolism consists of the physical stocks and flows with which a society maintains and reproduces itself.”
132. Joan Martinez-Alier et al (2010) – Social Metabolism, Ecological Distribution Conflicts, and Valuation Languages – Ecological Economics 70:153–158 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.09.024 – Departament d’Economia i d’Història Econòmica, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona – http://icta.uab.cat/99_recursos/1289813089221.pdf
     “A socio-metabolic perspective is adopted here which requires dealing not only with the extractive industries—mining for metals and building materials or extraction of fossil fuels (Canel et al., 2010)—but also with biomass extraction conflicts (tree plantations, e.g. Gerber, in press, agro-fuels and other export crops, deforestation and mangrove destruction, and fisheries).”
133. Monika Dittrich and Stefan Bringezu (2012) – The physical dimension of international trade. Part 1: Direct global flows between 1962 and 2005 – Ecological Economics 69:1838-1847 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.04.023 – Independent Scientist, Heidelberg; Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Research Group Material Flows and Resource Management
     “This article describes a method to calculate complete physical trade flows for all countries which report their trade to the UN … The largest net importers were Japan, the United States and single European countries … Altogether, with the major exception of Australia and Canada, industrialized countries are net importers and developing countries and transition countries are net exporters, but there are important differences within these groups.”
134. Fridolin Krausmann et al (2012) – Long-term trajectories of the human appropriation of net primary production: Lessons from six national case studies – Ecological Economics 77:129–138 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.02.019 – Institute of Social Ecology Vienna (SEC), Alpen-Adria Universitaet – http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800912000833/pdfft?md5=b790e87e1a6c7ec9f251a7fa698c2f13&pid=1-s2.0-S0921800912000833-main.pdf – 9 autores
     “The ‘human appropriation of net primary production’ (HANPP) is an integrated socio-ecological indicator measuring effects of land use on ecological biomass flows … Our findings corroborate the argument that HANPP alone cannot – as sometimes suggested – be used as a simple measure of carrying capacity. Nevertheless, analyses of long-term HANPP trajectories in combination with accounts of material and energy flows can provide important insights into the sustainability of land use, thereby helping to understand limits to growth.”
135. Steve Keen, Robert U.Ayres and Russell Standish (2019) – A Note on the Role of Energy in Production – Ecological Economics 157:40-46 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.11.002 – 16/11/2018 – Kingston University London; INSEAD
     “Energy plays no role in the standard Cobb-Douglas Production Function (CDPF) … We argue for the redefinition and measurement of real GDP in terms of exergy. We conclude that the “Solow Residual” measures the contribution of exergy to growth, and that the exponents in the EBCDPF should be based on cross-country comparative data as suggested by Mankiw (1995) rather than the “cost-share theorem”.”
136. Steve Sorrell and John Dimitropoulos (2008) – The rebound effect: Microeconomic definitions, limitations and extensions – Ecological Economics 65:636-649 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.08.013 – 27/09/2007 – Sussex Energy Group, SPRU (Science & Technology Policy Research), Freeman Centre, University of Sussex
     “The rebound effect results in part from an increased consumption of energy services following an improvement in the technical efficiency of delivering those services. This increased consumption offsets the energy savings that may otherwise be achieved. If the rebound effect is sufficiently large it may undermine the rationale for policy measures to encourage energy efficiency … We discuss the implications of these findings for econometric studies and argue that several existing studies may overestimate the magnitude of the effect. ”
137. Robert Costanza et al (1997) – The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital – Nature 387:253-260 doi:10.1038/387253a0 – Center for Environmental and Estuarine Studies, Zoology Department, and † Insitute for Ecological Economics, University of Maryland + Department of Systems Ecology, University of Stockholm – http://www.uvm.edu/giee/publications/Nature_Paper.pdf – 13 autores
     “For the entire biosphere, the value (most of which is outside the market) is estimated to be in the range of US$16–54 trillion (10^12) per year, with an average of US$33trillion per year. Because of the nature of the uncertainties, thismust be considered a minimum estimate. Global gross national product total is around US$18 trillion per year.”
138. Robert Costanza et al (2014) – Changes in the global value of ecosystem services – Global Environmental Change 26:152–158 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.002 – Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
     “In 1997, the global value of ecosystem services was estimated to average $33 trillion/yr in 1995 $US ($46 trillion/yr in 2007 $US). In this paper, we provide an updated estimate based on updated unit ecosystem service values and land use change estimates between 1997 and 2011. We also address some of the critiques of the 1997 paper. Using the same methods as in the 1997 paper but with updated data, the estimate for the total global ecosystem services in 2011 is $125 trillion/yr (assuming updated unit values and changes to biome areas) and $145 trillion/yr (assuming only unit values changed), both in 2007 $US … Many eco-services are best considered public goods or common pool resources, so conventional markets are often not the best institutional frameworks to manage them.”
139. Ezra J. Mishan (1967,1969) – Los costes del desarrollo económico – Ediciones Orbis – London School of Economics – 7530-277-7ISBN: 84 – 249 Págs.
     “Tal sentido político tiene sus aplicaciones, pero no puede contribuir en absoluto a un replanteamiento radical de la política social … lo que sea políticamente factible, depende, en última instancia, de la influencia activa de la opinión pública.” (p. 10-11)
140. Federico Aguilera Klink (2016) – Naturaleza humana, economía y cultura. Hábitos de pensamiento y reglas del juego – Ediciones del Genal – ISBN-13: 978-8416626380 – 166 Págs. – https://bit.ly/2MUiCSs
     “Esto nos lleva a comprender que la economía no enseña sólo «conocimientos » técnicos o disciplinarios sino, fundamentalmente, esquemas psíquicos que legitiman una visión y un comportamiento. Así, el esquema disociativo nos aleja de la realidad impidiendo su comprensión (ética, naturaleza, mercado, poder, etc.) y, a la vez, legitima y convierte en «normal» esa mirada aunque vaya, directa o indirectamente, contra nosotros mismos. ” (p. 19)
141. Gail Tverberg (2019) – Understanding Why the Green New Deal Won’t Really Work – Our Finite World, 02/10/2019 – https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/10/02/understanding-why-the-green-new-deal-wont-really-work/
     “None of the new renewables can easily be relied upon to produce enough energy in winter … Depending upon burned biomass in winter is an option, but we already know that this path is likely to lead to massive deforestation … Battery backup for renewables is very expensive … None of the researchers studying the usefulness of wind and solar have understood the need for overbuilding, or alternatively, paying backup electricity providers adequately for their services … The scale of the transition to hydroelectric, wind, and solar would be unimaginably large … I could explain further, but that would make this make this post too long.”
142. Ottmar Edenhofer, Ramón Pichs-Madruga and Youba Sokona (2014) – Íbidem
     “Most cost-effective scenarios collected for this assessment that are based on the assumptions that all countries of the world begin mitigation immediately, there is a single global carbon price applied to well-functioning markets, and key technologies are available, estimate that reaching about 450 ppm CO₂eq by 2100 … The consumption losses correspond to an annual average reduction of consumption growth by 0.06 to 0.2 percentage points from 2010 through 2030 (median: 0.09), 0.06 to 0.17 percentage points through 2050 (median: 0.09) … These numbers are relative to annual average consumption growth rates in baseline scenarios between 1.9 % and 3.8 % per year through 2050 and between 1.6 % and 3 % per year over the century … Substantially higher cost estimates have been obtained based on assumptions about less idealized policy implementations and limits on technology availability … Both higher and lower estimates have been obtained based on interactions with pre-existing distortions, non-climate market failures, or complementary policies.”
143. Ottmar Edenhofer and Jan Minx (2014) – Mapmakers and navigators, facts and values. Policy forum: Climate policy – Science 345:37-38 doi:10.1126/science.1255998 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research + Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change + IPCC WGIII Cochair; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research + IPCC WGIII Head of Technical Support Unit
     “Even if scientists desired more far-reaching consensus in some areas, the government-approved SPM remains scientifically credible. The underlying report and Technical Summary were unaffected by changes made during SPM approval … The SPM successfully provides a comprehensive, policy-relevant assessment of mitigation pathways to alternative climate goals in terms of underlying technological, economic, and institutional requirements. ”
144. Dani Rodrik (2014) – The Perils of Economic Consensus – Project Syndicate – 14/08/2014 – Professor Rafiq Hariri de Política Económica Internacional, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Universitat Harvard – http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/dani-rodrik-warns-that-agreement-among-economists-can-create-an-illusion-of-certain-knowledge
     “When a consensus forms around the universal applicability of a specific model, the critical assumptions of which are likely to be violated in many settings, we have a problem … it requires that economists make value judgments on distributional effects, which are better left to the electorate itself.”
145. Steve Keen – Climate Change: Extinction or Adaptation? – Patreon, 13/10/2019 – Professor of Economics + Head of the School of Economics, Politics and History, Kingston University – https://www.patreon.com/posts/climate-change-30728029“Eight ostensibly separate research groups are thus just two … The two groups are hardly strangers to each other either: this is a tiny set of like-minded individuals clearly subject to «intellectual inbreeding», a potential that Tol acknowledges.”
146. Federico Aguilera Kink (1994) – Pigou and Coase Reconsidered – Land Economics 70:386-390 doi:10.2307/3146538 – 01/08/1994 – Departamento de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de La Laguna
     “Textbooks usually identify Pigou and Coase as two antagonists, the former a stubborn advocate of state intervention via taxation and the latter an equally stubborn advocate of free negotiation between per- sons affected by different problems, that is, avoiding state intervention at all costs. As I hope to show, this “pigeon-holing» is at odds with the ideas that emerge from a close reading of their works.”
147. Douglas J. Arent, Richard S.J. Tol et al (2014) – IPCC AR5 WGII: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Chapter 10. Key Economic Sectors and Services – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap10_FINAL.pdf – 16 autores
     “Estimates of the incremental economic impact of emitting carbon dioxide lie between a few dollars and several hundreds of dollars per tonne of carbon (robust evidence, medium agreement). Estimates vary strongly with the assumed damage function and discount rate. {10.9} ” (p. 663)
148. Ottmar Edenhofer, Ramón Pichs-Madruga and Youba Sokona (2014) – Íbidem
     “Uncertainty in SCC estimates is high due to the uncertainty in underlying total damage estimates … uncertainty about future emissions, future climate change, future vulnerability and future valuation. The spread in estimates is also high due to disagreement regarding the appropriate framework for aggregating impacts over time (discounting), regions (equity weighing), and states of the world (risk aversion) … Estimates of the incremental damage per tonne of CO2 emitted vary by two orders of magnitude.” (p. 690-691)
149. Gernot Wagner and Martin L. Weitzman (2015) – Climate Shock. The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet – Princeton University Press – New York University; Harvard University – ISBN 978-0-691-15947-8 – 265 Págs.
     “That’s not a call for letting markets run free … Properly channeled human drive and ingenuity, guided by a high enough price on carbon to reflect its true cost to society, is our best hope for getting us out.” (p. 151)
150. Ottmar Edenhofer, Ramón Pichs-Madruga and Youba Sokona (2014) – Íbidem
     “General equilibrium analysis describes how climate change impacts in one sector propagate to the rest of the economy, how impacts in one country influence other countries, and how macroeconomic conditions affect each impact … these models necessarily make a number of simplifying assumptions, particularly with regard to the rationality of consumers and producers and the absence of market imperfections. Other types of economic models have yet to be applied to the estimation of indirect economic effects of climate change. ” (p. 689)
151. E. Roy Weintraub (2002) – How Economics Became a Mathematical Science – Duke University Press – ISBN-13: 978-0822328711 – 328 Págs.
     “Scientists must take some components of their research as given; intellectual paralysis awaits the scientist who seeks to reopen every foundational issue every day. For most economists, the competitive equilibrium is a tool to use with little regard to how the tool has been constructed.”
152. Stéphane Hallegatte, Jean-Charles Hourcade and Patrice Dumas (2007) – Why economic dynamics matter in assessing climate change damages: Illustration on extreme events – Ecological Economics 62:330-340 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.06.006 – Center for Environmental Sciences and Policy, Stanford; Ecole Nationale des Ponts-et-Chaussées; Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement; Centre d’Enseignement et de Recherche sur l’Environnement et la Société
     “Extreme events are one of the main channels through which climate and socioeconomic systems interact … The long-term growth models used in climate change assessments, however, cannot capture the effects of such short-term shocks. To investigate this issue, a non-equilibrium dynamic model (NEDyM) is used to assess the macroeconomic consequences of extreme events … to avoid inaccurately low assessments of damages, researchers must take into account the distribution of extremes instead of their average cost and make explicit assumptions on the organization of future economies.»
153. Martin Kowarsch (2016) – A Pragmatist Orientation for the Social Sciences in Climate Policy: How to Make Integrated Economic Assessments Serve Society – Springer International Publishing – Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change – ISBN-13: 978-3319827797 – 344 Págs.
     “Only incremental adaptation is usually possible in policy-making, rather than far-reaching policy changes within a short period of time. The IPCC assessments should take this into account – instead of presenting abstract ideal world scenarios. ” (p. 53)
154. Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich (2013) – Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided? – Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences doi: 10.1098/rspb.2012.2845 – 08/01/2013 – Department of Biology, Stanford University – http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/royprsb/280/1754/20122845.full.pdf
     “Nobel laureate Joshua Lederberg … famously stating, ‘The survival of the human species is not a preordained evolutionary program’ [82, p. 40].”
155. Elizabeth A. Stanton (2009) – Negishi Welfare Weights: The Mathematics of Global Inequality – Climatic Change 107:417-432 doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9967-6 – 14/05/2009 – Stockholm Environment Institute – http://sei-us.org/Publications_PDF/SEI-WorkingPaperUS-0902.pdf
     “Negishi weighting is another key ethical assumption at work in climate-economics models, but one that is virtually unknown to most model users. Negishi weights freeze the current distribution of income between world regions; without this constraint, IAMs that maximize global welfare would recommend an equalization of income across regions as part of their policy advice. With Negishi weights in place, these models instead recommend a course of action that would be optimal only in a world in which global income redistribution cannot and will not take place.”
156. Humberto Llavador et al (2011) – Sustainability in the Presence of Global Warming: Theory and Empirics – United Nations Development Programme – Universitat Pompeu Fabra + Barcelona GSE – http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2011/papers/HDRP_2011_05.pdf
     “We find strong sustainability to be an attractive idea, but we shall not advocate it in this paper. Rather, we shall advocate and model weak sustainability … We show that human welfare can be sustained forever at levels higher than the present level.”
157. Jorge Riechmann Fernández (2015) – Autoconstrucción: La transformación cultural que necesitamos – Los Libros de la Catarata – Catedrático de Filosofía Moral, Universidad Complutense de Madrid – ISBN-13: 978-8483199855 – 304 Págs.
     “La razón sólo instrumental recibe fines desde fuera, y no se pregunta por la naturaleza de estos. ¡Pero también nos hace falta enjuiciar los fines! En efecto, la racionalidad no puede reducirse sólo al cálculo de los medios, sino que tiene que incluir también la evaluación de los fines.”
158. Referencia pendiente
159. Matteo Muratori et al (2017) – Carbon capture and storage across fuels and sectors in energy system transformation pathways – Control 57:34–41 doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.11.026 – Pacific Northwest National Laboratory – Joint Global Change Research Institute; ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company – 6 autores
     “This study challenges the view that CCS will primarily be coupled with power plants and used mainly in conjunction with fossil fuels, and suggests greater focus on practical implications of significant CCS and BECCS deployment to inform energy system transformation scenarios over the 21st century.”
160. Alice Larkin et al (2017) – What if negative emission technologies fail at scale? Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations – Climate Policy 18:690-714 doi:10.1080/14693062.2017.1346498 – Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester – http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2017.1346498 – 4 autores
     “Here it is argued that cost-optimization models, commonly used to inform policy, typically underplay the urgency of 2°C mitigation. The alignment within many scenarios of optimistic assumptions on negative emissions technologies (NETs), with implausibly early peak emission dates and incremental short-term mitigation, delivers outcomes commensurate with 2°C commitments. In contrast, considering equity and socio-technical barriers to change, suggests a more challenging short-term agenda … The outcomes raise profound questions around high-level framings of mitigation policy … This highlights a need for greater engagement with … an almost ubiquitous inclusion of NETs [negative emission technologies] within 2°C scenarios.”
161. Christopher B. Field et al (2014) – Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf – 71 autores “Mitigation scenarios reaching about 450 ppm CO2eq in 2100 typically involve temporary overshoot of atmospheric concentrations, as do many scenarios reaching about 500 ppm to about 550 ppm CO2eq in 2100 … overshoot scenarios typically rely on the availability and widespread deployment of BECCS and afforestation in the second half of the century. The availability and scale of these and other Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies and methods are uncertain and CDR technologies and methods are, to varying degrees, associated with challenges and risks (high confidence) …There is insufficient knowledge to quantify how much CO2 emissions could be partially offset by CDR on a century timescale. CDR methods carry side-effects and long-term consequences on a global scale.”
162. Kevin Anderson and Glen Peters (2016) – The trouble with negative emissions – Science 354:182-183 doi:10.1126/science.aah4567 – Tyndall Centre, University of Manchester + Centre for Sustainable Development, Uppsala University; Center for International Climate and Environmental Research—Oslo (CICERO) – http://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6309/182.full.pdf
     “Yet there are huge opportunities for near-term, rapid, and deep reductions today at little to modest costs, such as improving energy efficiency, encouraging low-carbon behaviors, and continued deployment of renewable energy technologies. Why, then, is BECCS used so prolifically in emission scenarios? The answer is simple. Integrated assessment models often assume perfect knowledge of future technologies and give less weight to future costs. In effect, they assume that the discounted cost of BECCS in future decades is less than the cost of deep mitigation today.”
163. Jean Laherrère (2019) – Are there enough fossil fuels to generate the IPCC CO2 baseline scenario? – – 30/12/2019 – Petroleum engineer in Total for 37 years – https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/2019/08/ipccco2rcp.pdf
     “CCS has been done on few places, but there are doubts that it could be done for the world CO2 emissions. Furthermore, few mentions that the energy to carry out CCS is about 25 % (very few recent papers on the subject) and I doubt that the world can find an additional 25% to store CO2.”
164. Adrian Cho (2018) – Nobel Prize for the economics of innovation and climate change stirs controversy – Science News, 08/10/2018 – https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/10/roles-ideas-and-climate-growth-earn-duo-economics-nobel-prize
     “Instead of spurring governments to take action against climate change, Nordhaus’s approach has been used to justify putting it off, Steinberger argues. “His kind of analysis has been used to delay, delay, delay,” she says. In 1992 Nordhaus published an analysis in which he identified +3 °C as the optimum temperature increase for the growth of capital, although he has since modified that position.”
165. Martin L. Weitzman (2011) – Fat-Tailed uncertainty in the economics of catastrophic climate change – Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 5:275-292 doi:10.1093/reep/rer006 – Department of Economics, Harvard University – https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/weitzman/files/fattaileduncertaintyeconomics.pdf
     “Table 3 … I hasten to add in fairness that this specification was intended only to capture low temperature damages and was never intended to be extrapolated to very high temperature changes. ”
166. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics – Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience – The World Bank – https://bit.ly/1B1p5An
     “Most importantly, a 4°C world is so different from the current one that it comes with high uncertainty and new risks that threaten our ability to anticipate and plan for future adaptation needs. ”
167. Jaime Nieto Vega – Nordhaus: Un Nobel contra los límites – Grupo de Energía, Economía y Dinámica de Sistemas, Universidad de Valladolid, 05/11/2018 – http://geeds.gir.uva.es/sin-categoria/nordhaus-un-nobel-contra-los-limites/
     “En relación a la consideración de los impactos climáticos en el modelo DICE se podrían realizar 3 críticas principales … parece que el sistema premia a aquellos que defienden al propio sistema: el sistema se defiende. ”
168. Steve Keen – Climate Change: Extinction or Adaptation? – Patreon, 13/10/2019 – Professor of Economics + Head of the School of Economics, Politics and History, Kingston University – https://www.patreon.com/posts/climate-change-30728029
     “The role of economists in such exercises would be to translate these physical and physiological consequences into estimates of their impact on GDP expressed, in monetary terms. Sadly, that is not the case: none of the studies summarized in Figure 3 were done by physical scientists. Instead, they are all estimates made by economists.”
169. Steve Keen – Climate Change: Extinction or Adaptation? – Íbidem
     “As an intellectual, I’m also blessed—and cursed—with remembering when and where I was when major intellectual revelations occurred to me … The moment when I realised what these «climate change economists» meant by «the statistical method» is seared into my brain as the worst of those latter moments. I knew then that mainstream economists had drastically underestimated the dangers of Climate Change, simply on the basis of an insanely stupid assumption, and that their delusion has helped delay humanity taking significant action until when there was virtually no chance of avoiding a climate crisis. It was one of the most shocking and depressing moments of my life. ”
170. Bob Ward (2014) – Errors in estimates of the aggregate economic impacts of climate change – Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics, 02/04/2014 – http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/Media/Commentary/2014/March/Errors-in-estimates-of-the-aggregate-economic-impacts-of-climate-change.aspx
     “I will continue my efforts to have the errors in Professor Tol’s work corrected, as a service to researchers, policy-makers and the public.”
171. Frank Ackerman – The Tol controversy: Beyond the bounds of acceptable debate – http://frankackerman.com/tol-controversy/
     “Tol e-mail to Synapse Energy Economics, my new employer, accusing me of libel … Tol e-mails to Routledge asking to review a book of mine they are publishing, and alleging that any mention of the Ackerman-Munitz article constitutes libel.”
172. Graham Readfearn (2014) – The Millions Behind Bjorn Lomborg’s Copenhagen Consensus Center US Think Tank – Desmogblog, 24/06/2014 – http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/06/25/millions-behind-bjorn-lomborg-copenhagen-consensus-center
     “A DeSmogBlog investigation suggests [that] the nonprofit Copenhagen Consensus Center (CCC) has spent almost $1 million on public relations since registering in the US in 2008. More than $4 million in grants and donations have flooded in since 2008, three quarters of which came in 2011 and 2012. In one year alone, the Copenhagen Consensus Center paid Lomborg $775,000.”
173. Nicholas Stern et al (2006) – Stern review on the economics of climate change – Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK – Grantham Institute, IndiaObservatory, and STICERD at the London School of Economics and Political Science – http://mudancasclimaticas.cptec.inpe.br/~rmclima/pdfs/destaques/sternreview_report_complete.pdf  – 22 autores
     “El coste de la adopción de medidas –reducción de las emisiones de gases invernadero para evitar las peores consecuencias del cambio climático– puede limitarse al 1%, aproximadamente, del PIB global cada año.”
174. Christopher Hope (2006) – The marginal impact of CO2 from PAGE2002: An integrated assessment model incorporating the IPCC’s five reasons for concern – The Integrated Assessment Journal 6:19–56 – Judge Institute of Management, University of Cambridge
     “This paper introduces a new version of the PAGE model, PAGE2002, which includes all five of the IPCC’s reasons for concern about climate change … The main changes from earlier versions of the PAGE model are identified, and their effect upon the marginal impact calculated. ”
175. David Adam (2008) – I underestimated the threat, says Stern – The Guardian, 18/04/2008 – http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/apr/18/climatechange.carbonemissions
     “He said: ‘Emissions are growing much faster than we’d thought, the absorptive capacity of the planet is less than we’d thought, the risks of greenhouse gases are potentially bigger than more cautious estimates and the speed of climate change seems to be faster.’.”
176. Robin McKie (2016) – Nicholas Stern: cost of global warming ‘is worse than I feared’ – The Guardian, 06/11/2016 – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/06/nicholas-stern-climate-change-review-10-years-on-interview-decisive-years-humanity
     “We have a lot to do to limit carbon emissions to an effective level. I am confident that it is possible to achieve that, though I cannot say that I am confident it will happen.”.»
177. Naomi Oreskes and Nicholas Stern (2019) – Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think – The New York Times, 23/10/2019 – Professor of History of Science, Harvard University; Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics – https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/23/opinion/climate-change-costs.html
     “A set of assumptions and practices in economics has led economists both to underestimate the economic impact of many climate risks and to miss some of them entirely. That is a problem because, as the report notes, these “missing risks” could have “drastic and potentially catastrophic impacts on citizens, communities and companies.” … Typically, our estimates of the value or cost of something, whether it is a pair of shoes, a loaf of bread or the impact of a hurricane, are based on experience. Statisticians call this “stationarity.” But when conditions change so much that experience is no longer a reliable guide to the future — when stationarity no longer applies — then estimates become more and more uncertain. ”
178. Ruth DeFries et al (2019) – The missing economic risks in assessments of climate change impacts – London School of Economics, 20/09/2019 – The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment; The Earth Institute, Columbia University; The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-missing-economic-risks-in-assessments-of-climate-change-impacts-2.pdf – 14 autores
     “[Lord Stern:] Economic assessments of the potential future risks of climate change have been omitting or grossly underestimating many of the most serious consequences for lives and livelihoods … Political and business leaders need to understand the scale of these ‘missing risks’ because they could have drastic and potentially catastrophic impacts on citizens, communities and companies. Scientists are growing in confidence about the evidence for the largest potential impacts of climate change and the rising probability that major thresholds in the Earth’s climate system will be breached as global mean surface temperature rises, particularly if warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial level.”
179. William D. Nordhaus (2018) – Nobel Lecture in Economic Sciences. Climate Change: The Ultimate Challenge for Economics – Nobel Prize – 08/12/2018 – Yale University – https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/10/nordhaus-slides.pdf
     “Slide 6: Temperature trajectories in different policies.”
180. Martin Davis (2004) – Adventures in Philanthropy: Measuring Success in Generations – The Philanthropy Roundtable Magazine, 01/05/2004 – http://web.archive.org/web/20041013073829/http:/www.philanthropyroundtable.org/magazines/2004/mayjune/earhart.htm
     “Though relatively small, the [Earhart ] foundation has enjoyed incredible success identifying and supporting those who will go on to Stockholm. The prize in economics was established in 1969 and has been awarded 35 times. Nine of those winners had received Earhart support … Once the awards are announced, the foundation is willing to wait for its return. «How do we measure success?» Kennedy asks rhetorically. «That’s easy. We sit back and wait a generation.» … The foundation doesn’t limit itself to economics alone. «Our basic role is to influence ideas,» Kennedy tells Philanthropy.”
181. Richard A. Rosen and Edeltraud Guenther (2016) – The energy policy relevance of the 2014 IPCC Working Group III report on the macro-economics of mitigating climate change – Energy Policy 93:330-334 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2016.03.025 – Environmental Management and Accounting, TU Dresden
     “Fifth, and most importantly, there is not a single table in the entire WGIII report, including in the SPMs which systematically describes the numerical values of the key input assumptions on which the basic reported mitigation cost results depend.”
182. Richard A. Rosen and Edeltraud Guenther (2016) – Íbidem
     “Experts in the field we have contacted have no knowledge of these IAMs ever being peer-reviewed. There is no published literature on peer reviews of these IAMs that could be found … Furthermore, the documentation of the models — and, especially, of the input assumptions utilized in producing them — is so incomplete ard/or non-existent, that it would appear that peer reviews of the models and assumptions would have been almost impossible to perform even if journal editors had requested that reviewers of these research articles do them (See the Supplementary materials for this paper for documentation of this claim.).”
183. Richard A. Rosen and Edeltraud Guenther (2016) – Íbidem
     “The published research based on running the IAMs relied on in the WG Ill report is, then, especially problematic for energy policy analysis due to the many levels of uncertainty that are never quantified. If the scientists who did the original IAM-based research papers merely wanted to indicate what their various models and assumptions might yield for the macroeconomics of mitigating climate change for a few well-defined scenarios, they could do that, but they should never claim that such results reflect a reasonable range of real world outcomes with any specific level of confidence, as they do throughout the WGIII report.”
184. Richard A. Rosen and Edeltraud Guenther (2016) – Íbidem
     “There are simply too many layers of inherent and irreducible uncertainties in complex models like climate change IAMs … basically ignored in the presentations of results in the SPMs … These layers of uncertainty are so profound that economic projections for as far into the future as 2100 should probably never be made and re-ported to policy makers. To do so without appropriate warnings and calculations of uncertainty is scientifically deshonest [refs].”
185. Ottmar Edenhofer, Ramón Pichs-Madruga and Youba Sokona (2014) – Íbidem
     “Our general conclusion is that the reliability of damage functions in current IAMs is low. Users should be cautious in relying on them for policy analysis: some damages are omitted, and some estimates may not reflect the most recent information on physical impacts; the empirical basis of estimates is sparse and not necessarily up-to-date; and adaptation is difficult to properly represent … Some authors (e. g., WGII Chapter 19) conclude these damage functions are biased downwards. ” (p. 247)
186. Ottmar Edenhofer, Ramón Pichs-Madruga and Youba Sokona (2014) – Íbidem
     “Expected Utility theory is based on a set of axioms that are claimed to have normative rather than descriptive validity …These axioms have been debated, strengthened, and relaxed by economists, psychologists, and other social scientists over the years. The axioms have been challenged by controlled laboratory experiments and field studies … but they remain the basis for parsing decision problems and recommending options that maximize expected utility. ” (p. 168-169)
187. Jorge Riechmann – Capitalismo verde: no (tampoco como Green New Deal), sino ecosocialismo (descalzo) – 15/15\15, 14/10/2019 – https://www.15-15-15.org/webzine/2019/10/14/capitalismo-verde-no-tampoco-como-green-new-deal-sino-ecosocialismo-descalzo/
     “Aporía: las políticas posibles intramuros de la ciudad humana (el Green New Deal de Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez al que se suman Emilio Santiago Muíño y Héctor Tejero con su libro ¿Qué hacer en caso de incendio?,[5] o la transición energética de Joaquim Sempere en Las cenizas de Prometeo,[6] o las propuestas de “crecimiento verde” de Robert Pollin:[7] todas son variantes del mismo “100% renovables” de alta tecnología a toda máquina) no entrañan la acelerada reducción de emisiones de GEI que necesitamos … Y las políticas necesarias desde el punto de vista de Gaia (pero también desde el interés general humano más allá del presente inmediato que desemboca en colapso), es decir, las que propugnan los movimientos decrecentistas[9] o mi ecosocialismo descalzo, implican un deliberado empobrecimiento colectivo igualitario… que las hace aparentemente imposibles en la ciudad humana.”
188. T. Parrique, J. Barth et al (2019) – Decoupling debunked – Evidence and arguments against green growth as a sole strategy for sustainability – European Environmental Bureau, 08/07/2019 – https://mk0eeborgicuypctuf7e.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Decoupling-Debunked-FULL-for-ONLINE.pdf – 4 autores
     “The validity of the green growth discourse relies on the assumption of an absolute, permanent, global, large and fast enough decoupling of economic growth from all critical environmental pressures … When absolute decoupling occurs, it is observed only during rather short periods of time, concerning only certain resources or forms of impact, for specific locations, and with very small rates of mitigation. ”
189. Ken Caldeira and Steven J. Davis (2011) – Accounting for carbon dioxide emissions: A matter of time – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 108:8533-8534 doi:10.1073/pnas.1106517108 – Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/108/21/8533.full.pdf
     “It is important to distinguish between carbon embodied in international trade (i.e., CO2 that was released to the atmosphere to support the production of goods and services that are internationally traded) from actual carbon in international trade, such as is found in internationally traded fossil fuels, foodstuffs, or plastics.”
190. Ottmar Edenhofer, Ramón Pichs-Madruga and Youba Sokona (2014) – Íbidem
     “Two basic types of decoupling are often invoked in the context of a transition toward sustainable development: the decoupling of material resource consumption (including fossil fuels) and environmental impact (including climate change) from economic growth, and the decoupling of economic growth from human well-being (high confidence). ” (p. 288)
191. Jordi Pigem (2017) – Àngels i robots – Viena Edicions – ISBN-13: 978-8483309315 – 168 Págs.
     “El cas més espectacular, segons Easterlin, és el de la Xina: en dues dècades, el seu PIB per càpita s’ha multiplicat per quatre (a partir d’un nivell ben baix) i tanmateix la satisfacció vital dels xinesos no ha millorat. En el cas dels EUA, la felicitat mitjana dels ciutadans ha estat en un lleuger però continu declivi entre el 1973 i el 2007, i des d’aleshores aquest declivi s’ha agreujat significativament.” (p. 39)
192. Anders Fremstad and Mark Paul (2019) – The Impact of a Carbon Tax on Inequality – Energy Policy 131:88-97 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.04.016 – Department of Economics, Colorado State College + Division of Social Sciences, New College of Florida
     “Climate change and economic inequality are inextricably linked. Despite widespread agreement among researchers and policymakers that a carbon tax is the most efficient mechanism to curb greenhouse gas emissions, such a tax exacerbates inequality since low-income households spend a greater share of their income on carbon-intensive goods.”
193. David G. Victor, Reyer Gerlagh and Giovanni Baiocchi (2014) – Getting serious about categorizing countries – Science 345:34-36 doi:10.1126/science.1255302 – University of California, San Diego + IPCC WGIII Coordinating Lead Author; Tilburg University + IPCC WGIII Coordinating Lead Author; University of Maryland + IPCC WGIII Lead Author
     “It grouped countries according to underlying economic drivers of emissions. The writing team selected the latest version of a World Bank scheme widely used by experts in economic growth and better suited to explaining variations in emissions than the Annex I scheme. Nonetheless, there remains huge variation within these categories (chart 2B), particularly for the least-developed countries … That key finding was also cut from the SPM.”
194. Ottmar Edenhofer and Jan Minx (2014) – Íbidem
     “In the end, neither income-based nor any other alternative classification used in the underlying report was acceptable to all governments. Thus, figures and associated text had to be removed from the SPM.”
195. Douglas J. Arent, Richard S.J. Tol et al (2014) – Íbidem
     “Figure TS.4 | Trends in GHG emissions by country income groups … For details see Annex II.2.3. [Figures 1.4, 1.8] ” (p. 45)
196. David G. Victor, Reyer Gerlagh and Giovanni Baiocchi (2014) – Íbidem
     “A central finding of WGIII is that growth of income has been the largest single driver of emissions. Governments accepted that finding at the global level, where it is safe to discuss generalities because no country is in the spotlight. But WGIII also showed how different categories of countries contribute to global emissions … We explain what was lost when these figures were cut from the SPM. ”
197. David G. Victor, Reyer Gerlagh and Giovanni Baiocchi (2014) – Íbidem
     “Studies on effects of trade and globalization have tracked emissions “embodied” in products that are traded across borders. For the first time, IPCC presented adjusted emission statistics showing how territorial and consumption-based accounting systems lead to very different pictures. But because governments couldn’t agree on how to group countries, all WGIII findings about embodied emissions were cut from the SPM.”
198. Navroz K. Dubash, Marc Fleurbaey and Sivan Kartha (2014) – Political implications of data presentation – Science 345:36-37 doi:10.1126/science.1255734 – Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi + IPCC WGIII Lead Author; Princeton University +IPCC WGIII Coordinating Lead Author; Stockholm Environment Institute + IPCC WGIII Coordinating Lead Author
     “It is more productive for authors to be aware of alternative political interpretations of their concepts and findings and to factor these into representations of data, than to strive, unrealistically, to ignore political concerns … The process of coproducing a portion of the IPCC with governments is what lends the IPCC its credibility as a voice that is of scientists, but with more weight for policy. Calls for insulation from politics risk undermining the relevance of the SPM.”
199. David Victor (2015) – Embed the social sciences in climate policy – Nature 520:27–29 doi:10.1038/520027a – 01/04/2015 – Professor of international relations and director of the Laboratory on International Law and Regulation, University of California, San Diego + chairman of the Global Agenda Council on Governance for Sustainability at the World Economic Forum – http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-embed-the-social-sciences-in-climate-policy-1.17206
     “A small group of nations vetoed graphs that showed countries’ emissions grouped according to economic growth. Although this format is good science — economic growth is the main driver of emissions — it is politically toxic because it could imply that some countries that are developing rapidly need to do more to control emissions. ”
200. Richard A. Rosena and Edeltraud Guenther (2016) – Íbidem
     “Unfortunately, these SPMs omitted key aspects … Yet, many of the major omissions were acknowledged deep in the text of Chapter 6, but were not revealed to the public. We conclude, therefore, that neither of these SPMs was useful for energy policy makers and energy managers, and they were misleading due to their many key omissions.”
201. Gail Tverberg (2019) – Why stimulus can’t fix our energy problems – Our Finite World, 10/07/2019 – https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/07/10/why-stimulus-cant-fix-our-energy-problems/
     “Conventional economists assume that it is possible for politicians to direct the economy along lines that they prefer, even if doing so contradicts the laws of physics … they assume that the economy can be made to operate with much less energy consumption than is used today. They assume that we collectively can decide to move away from coal consumption, without having another fuel available that can adequately replace coal in quantity and uses.”
202. David Fisk (2011) – Thermodynamics on Main Street: When entropy really counts in economics – Ecological Economics 70:1931–1936 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.06.012 – 15/07/2011 – Imperial College London
     “The implications of thermodynamics for economic theory have been a source of debate for 40 years. Adopting the framing used in modern engineering rather than physics suggests that the market place has already recognised most of these thermodynamic truths as self-evident rather than challenging basic concepts.”
203. Referencia pendiente
204. Ferran Puig Vilar (2015) – París 2015: el único margen, el estado de emergencia mundial – Usted no se lo Cree, 27/11/2015 – https://ustednoselocree.com/2015/11/27/paris-2015-el-unico-margen/
     “No es pues de extrañar que estos economistas acaben tuneando sus modelos con la inclusión de posibilidades meramente especulativas en forma de emisiones negativas imaginadas o de experimentos de alto voltaje – cuando no haciendo retroceder el tiempo [ref] – cuando se encuentran con que, aún con toda esa parafernalia añadida que los separa de la realidad – siempre en el mismo sentido – los resultados de los modelos siguen sin ser vendibles al poder establecido. Bueno, ellos ya están acostumbrados a eso, no sienten inquietud espiritual ni vergüenza alguna por ello. Pues el mercado remunera adicionalmentre estas prácticas.”
205. Richard A. Rosen and Edeltraud Guenther (2015) – The economics of mitigating climate change: What can we know? – Technological Forecasting and Social Change 91:93-106 doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2014.01.013 – Tellus Institute; Technische Universitaet Dresden – https://bit.ly/2Pa906Y
     “Should these findings and conclusions about the inadequacies of current IAMs really matter to policymakers who are trying to figure out when, and to what extent, to implement effective climate change mitigation policies? Our answer is “no,” because humanity would be wise to mitigate climate change as quickly as possible without being constrained by existing economic systems and institutions, or risk making the world uninhabitable.”
206. Manuel Bagues – ¿Nos podemos fiar de los economistas? – Nada es gratis – 14/09/2012 – – http://www.fedeablogs.net/economia/?p=24540
     “Un 3% de los encuestados confiesa haber falseado los datos originales en alguna ocasión. Un número muy superior, el 36%, admite haberlos “masajeado”. Es decir, reconoce haber escogido de forma arbitraria las variables de control para así poder obtener resultados estadísticamente significativos (“si torturas los datos lo suficiente acabaran confesando”, que decía Coase). También hay un 32% que admite que en sus artículos presenta únicamente los resultados que favorecen su tesis y un 21% que no cita los artículos que pudieran contradecirle.”
207. Martin Kowarsch (2016) – A Pragmatist Orientation for the Social Sciences in Climate Policy: How to Make Integrated Economic Assessments Serve Society – Springer International Publishing – Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change – ISBN-13: 978-3319827797 – 344 Págs.
     “Samuelson and Nordhaus (2010 , p. 508) point to the implied danger by quoting Solow: “Nobody likes to say ‘I don’t know’.” ” (p. 60, np 24)
208. Jerry Ravetz (1995) – Economics as an Elite Folk Science: The Suppression of Uncertainty – Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 17:165-184 – Director of the Research Methods Consultancy, Ltd.
     “My point is that the shape of the science, and its dominant criteria of quality, will be determined by the attribute or attributes considered most important by those who govern the social activity of the discipline.”
209. Martin Kowarsch (2016) – Íbidem
     “Wagner and Weitzman (2015) as well as the IPCC (2014b) clearly argue that climate change mitigation in particular is all but trivial, and gives rise to several substantial risks and uncertainties as well as huge complexity. Recently, there have been calls for more social-science research on climate change.” (p. 36, np 36)
210. David G. Victor (2009) – Global warming: why the 2 °C goal is a political delusion – Nature 459:909 doi:10.1038/459909a – Energy and Sustainable Development, Stanford University
     “Even with a big dose of luck, the effort needed to get to 2 °C would be heroic, as Allen and colleagues indicate, and probably far beyond what real governments can achieve.”
211. Todd Sanford et al (2014) – The climate policy narrative for a dangerously warming world – Nature Climate Change 4:164–166 doi:10.1038/nclimate2148 – Union of Concerned Scientists – 4 autores
     “It is time to acknowledge that global average temperatures are likely to rise above the 2 °C policy target and consider how that deeply troubling prospect should affect priorities for communicating and managing the risks of a dangerously warming climate.”
212. Alejandro Nadal – Frank Ackerman y la economía para el peor escenario. Reseña – Sin Permiso, 21/02/2018 – http://www.sinpermiso.info/textos/frank-ackerman-y-la-economia-para-el-peor-escenario-resena
     “El economista Frank Ackerman acaba de publicar un importante libro cuyo título puede traducirse como Economía para el peor escenario … el punto de partida de Ackerman es el hecho de que los eventos extremos en los mercados financieros se han hecho cada vez más frecuentes, y en eso se parecen a los trastornos climáticos que hoy se repiten con mayor asiduidad e intensidad. Para empezar, Ackerman nos recuerda que la teoría económica neoclásica está obsesionada por lo que acontece en el equilibrio o en su vecindad. ”
213. Marga Mediavilla – Economistas, por favor, inventen algo – El Diario. Última Llamada – 17/06/2019 – https://www.eldiario.es/ultima-llamada/Economistas-favor-inventen_6_911018891.html
     “La mayor parte de los economistas (con contadas pero muy meritorias excepciones) siguen atados a teorías económicas obsoletas que fueron concebidas en siglos pasados, cuando la disponibilidad de recursos y de energía parecía ilimitada … Tampoco creo que se le haya ocurrido consultar las reservas de uranio, que son bastante escasas, están en países conflictivos y ni lejanamente llegan a cubrir el 100% del consumo energético actual con uranio rentable … Sustituir, por ejemplo, los 2.000 millones de vehículos actuales por vehículos eléctricos requeriría usar todas las reservas de litio y la mitad de los recursos totales (e impactos ambientales muy graves) y, si no reciclamos el litio (y ahora no lo hacemos) sólo será posible para una generación de vehículos, porque, una vez gastado el litio, se acabó esta tecnología.»
214. John Gray (2019) – Cambio climático y extinción del pensamiento – El País, 09/06/2019 – https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/08/opinion/1559993302_726412.html
     “Cualquier programa fundamentado en el hecho de que los seres humanos se enfrentan a un cambio climático imposible de detener será tachado de fatalismo desesperado … De hecho, la ciencia se ha convertido en un canal de la creencia ‒heredada del monoteísmo‒de que la humanidad puede trascender el mundo natural. La paradoja de los movimientos ecologistas actuales es que fomentan esta religión antropocéntrica. La crisis de la extinción solo se puede mitigar reorientando nuestra mente para que aborde la realidad. El pensamiento realista, sin embargo, está prácticamente extinguido ”
215. Paul Voosen (2018) – The realist – Science 359:1320-1324 doi:10.1126/science.359.6382.
     “Smil’s work on energy transitions is getting more attention than ever. But his message is not necessarily one of hope. Smil has forced climate advocates … to question many of the rosy assumptions underlying scenarios for a rapid shift to alternatives.”
216. Binyamin Appelbaum (2019) – The New York Times, 25/08/2019 – https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/24/opinion/sunday/economics-milton-friedman.html
217. Naomi Oreskes and Nicholas Stern (2019) – Íbidem
     “[Economists] approach climate damages as minor perturbations around an underlying path of economic growth.”
218. Hans Joachim Schellnhüber (2018) – Foreword – En: David Spratt and Brian Dunlop, What Lies Beneath: The Understatement of Climate Existential Risk – National Center for Climate Restoration – http://climateextremes.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/What-Lies-Beneath-V3-LR-Blank5b15d.pdf
     “Out-of-the-box thinking is vital given the unprecedented climate risks which now confront human civilisation … Climate change is now reaching the end-game, where very soon humanity must choose between taking unprecedented action, or accepting that it has been left too late and bear the consequences. Therefore, it is all the more important to listen to non-mainstream voices who do understand the issues and are less hesitant to cry wolf. Unfortunately for us, the wolf may already be in the house. ”
219. Keynyn Brysse, Naomi Oreskes, Jessica O’Reilly and Michael Oppenheimer (2013) – Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? – Global Environmental Change 23:327–337 doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008 – Program in Science, Technology and Society, Office of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Alberta; History and Science Studies, University of California; Department of Sociology, College of St. Benedict/St. John’s University; Department of Geosciences and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University“In his recent autobiographical book, Hansen takes up the concept of scientific reticence in more detail, and suggests that an additional factor beyond the fear of being wrong is ‘behavioral discounting’—namely, that some ways of being wrong are considered more problematic than others. In particular, scientists’ fear of ‘crying wolf’ is more immediate than their fear of ‘fiddling while Rome burns’ (Hansen, 2009, p. 87). We believe that the evidence supports this idea. Below, we offer some additional examples, and then return to our hypothesis to help explain why. ”
220. Associated Press – Arctic sea ice gone in summer within five years? – National Geographic, 12/12/2007 – https://bit.ly/31MNiss
     “So scientists in recent days have been asking themselves these questions: Was the record melt seen all over the Arctic in 2007 a blip amid relentless and steady warming? Or has everything sped up to a new climate cycle that goes beyond the worst case scenarios presented by computer models? «The Arctic is often cited as the canary in the coal mine for climate warming,» said Zwally, who as a teenager hauled coal.”
221. David Spratt and Philip Sutton (2008) – Climate Code Red: The Case for Emergency Action – Scribe Publications – Carbon Equity; Greenleap Strategic Institute
     “This is not an exaggerated claim; it is the sober view of many of the world’s leading climate scientists, including NASA scientist Jay Zwally. When he was a young man, Zwally hauled coal for work. At the end of 2007, he told a gathering of fellow climate experts: ‘The Arctic is often cited as the canary in the coalmine for climate warming … and now as a sign of climate warming, the canary has died. It is time to start getting out of the coal mines.’.
222. Gerald A. Meehl and Thomas F. Stocker (2007) – IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Chapter 10: Global Climate Projections – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-chapter10-1.pdf – 97 autores
     “An important characteristic of the projected change is for summer ice area to decline far more rapidly than winter ice area (Gordon and O’Farrell, 1997), and hence sea ice rapidly approaches a seasonal ice cover in both hemispheres (Figures 10.13b and 10.14). Seasonal ice cover is, however, rather robust and persists to some extent throughout the 21st century in most (if not all) models. ” (p. 770)
223. Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – Climate Change 2007. Summary for Policymakers – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers-1.pdf
     “Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic under all SRES scenarios. In some projections, Arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st century. {10.3} ”
224. Julienne Stroeve et al (2007) – Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast – Geophysical Research Letters 34 L09501 doi:10.1029/2007GL029703 – National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado – http://www.ualberta.ca/~eec/Stroeve2007.pdf  – 5 autores
     “Observations indicate a downward trend in September Arctic sea ice extent from 1953–2006 that is larger than any of the IPCC AR4 simulations, and current summer minima are approximately 30 years ahead of the ensemble mean model forecast.”
225. Peter N. Spotts – Little time to avoid big thaw, scientists warn – The Christian Science Monitor, 24/03/2006 – http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0324/p01s03-sten.html
     “Ice on Greenland and Antarctica is already thinning faster than it’s being replaced – and faster than scientists thought it would, notes Richard Alley, a paleoclimatologist at Penn State University and member of one of the research teams. Only five years ago, he notes, climate scientists expected the ice sheets to gain mass through 2100, then begin to melt. “We’re now 100 years ahead of schedule,” he says.”
226. James Hansen (2007) – Scientific reticence and sea level rise – Environmental Research Letters 2 024002 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002 – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies + Columbia University Earth Institute – http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen.pdf
     “The Arctic: Summer Arctic sea ice appears to be disappearing more than 80 years ahead of the IPCC’s prediction … An early arctic melt will cause additional heating, additional greenhouse gas emissions and additional sea level rise, over and above those foreseen by existing climate models.”
227. Marika M. Holland, Cecilia M. Bitz and Bruno Tremblay (2006) – Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice – Geophysical Research Letters 33:L23503 doi:10.1029/2006GL028024 – 12/12/2006 – National Center for Atmospheric Research; Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington + Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2006GL028024
     “One event exhibits a decrease from 6 million km2 to 2 million km2 in a decade, reaching near ice-free September conditions by 2040 … The retreat is abrupt when ocean heat transport to the Arctic is rapidly increasing.”
228. Hans-Martin Füssel (2009) – An updated assessment of the risks from climate change based on research published since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Climatic Change 97:469-482 doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9648-5 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
     “The observed decline of Arctic sea ice extent from 1953–2006 is about three times faster than the mean of climate models participating in the IPCC AR4 and larger than any of these models (Stroeve et al. 2007). About half of current climate models already display an ice-free Arctic Ocean in late summer by the end of the 21st century for the SRES A1B scenario (Arzel et al. 2006) but this estimate may be too conservative in the light of the new observations.”
229. Muyin Wang and James E. Overland (2009) – A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years? – Geophysical Research Letters 36:L07502 doi:10.1029/2009GL037820 – 03/04/2009 – Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington; Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA
     “Using the observed 2007/2008 September sea ice extents as a starting point, we predict an expected value for a nearly sea ice free Arctic in September by the year 2037. The first quartile of the distribution for the timing of September sea ice loss will be reached by 2028. Our analysis is based on projections from six IPCC models.”
230. Richard A. Kerr (2012) – Ice-Free Arctic Sea May Be Years, Not Decades, Away – Science 337:1591 doi:10.1126/science.337.6102.1591 – http://climate.engineering.iastate.edu/Document/Science-2012-Kerr-1591.pdf
     “Researchers who take climate model forecasts of ice area as a starting point tend to give summer ice several more decades. “I think 2030 to 2040 is pretty realistic” for an ice-free summer Arctic says sea ice specialist Julienne Stroeve of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado.”
231. Lisa V. Alexander et al (2013) – Cambio Climático 2013. Bases físicas. Resumen para responsables de políticas – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WG1AR5_SummaryVolume_FINAL_SPANISH.pdf – 69 autores
     “Sobre la base de una evaluación del subconjunto de los modelos que reproducen con mayor rigor el estado climatológico medio y de la tendencia de la extensión del hielo marino del Ártico, registrada entre 1979 y 2012, es probable que antes de mediados de siglo, el océano Ártico esté casi libre de hielo19 en el mes de septiembre, por lo que respecta al escenario RCP8,5 (nivel de confianza medio) (véanse las figuras RRP.7 y RRP.8). Para los demás escenarios, no se puede hacer con confianza una proyección de cuándo en el siglo XXI podría estar el Ártico casi libre de hielo en el mes de septiembre. {11.3, 12.4, 12.5} ”
232. James E. Overland and Muyin Wang (2013) – When will the summer arctic be nearly sea ice free? – Geophysical Research Letters 40:2097-2101 doi:10.1002/grl.50316 – Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA; University Washington/JISAO
     “Time horizons for a nearly sea ice free summer for these three approaches are roughly 2020 or earlier, 2030± 10 yrs, and 2040 or later … Recent data and expert opinion should be considered in addition to model results to advance the very likely timing for future sea ice loss to the first half of the 21st century, with a possibility of major loss within a decade or two.»
233. J. A. Screen and C. Deser (2019) – Pacific Ocean Variability Influences the Time of Emergence of a Seasonally Ice‐Free Arctic Ocean – Geophysical Research Letters 46:2222-2231 doi:10.1029/2018GL081393 – Global Systems Institute and Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter
     “If this [Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation] shift continues, our results suggest increased likelihood of accelerated sea‐ice loss over the coming decades, and an increased risk of an ice‐free Arctic within the next 20–30 years.”
234. Alexandra Jahn et al (2016) – How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic? – Geophysical Research Letters doi:10.1002/2016GL070067 – Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder – 4 autores
     “Given the chaotic nature of the climate system, what amount of spread in the prediction of an ice-free summer Arctic is inevitable? … Internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios adds at least another 5 years.”
235. Ice-free Arctic summers could happen on earlier side of predictions – American Geophysical Union (AGU) News, 27/02/2019 – https://news.agu.org/press-release/ice-free-arctic-summers-could-happen-on-earlier-side-of-predictions/
     “The Arctic Ocean could become ice-free in the summer in the next 20 years due to a natural, long-term warming phase in the tropical Pacific that adds to human-caused warming … a closer examination of long-term temperature cycles in the tropical Pacific points towards an ice-free Arctic in September, the month with the least sea ice, on the earlier side of forecasts.”
236. Carlos M. Duarte et al (2012) – Tipping Elements in the Arctic Marine Ecosystem – AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 41:44-55 doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0224-7 – 01/01/2012 – Global Change Research Department, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados, Mallorca; UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia – http://imedea.uib-csic.es/users/txetxu/Publications/Ambio2012.pdf – 10 autores
     “Our capacity to model the decline in Arctic ice extent with climate change remains poor … As a consequence, a tipping point for Arctic ice extent, beyond which the Arctic would remain free of ice in summer, remains possible [refs] and is likely to be met in the coming decades (Table 1).”
237. Dana Nuccitelli – There are genuine climate alarmists, but they’re not in the same league as deniers – The Guardian, 09/07/2018 – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jul/09/there-are-genuine-climate-alarmists-but-theyre-not-in-the-same-league-as-deniers
     “According to Met Office Chief Scientist Julia Slingo, 2025–2030 would be the earliest date for an ice-free Arctic summer, and 2040–2060 is more likely.”
238. Jeff McMahon – We Have Five Years To Save Ourselves From Climate Change, Harvard Scientist Says – Forbes, 15/01/2018 – https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2018/01/15/carbon-pollution-has-shoved-the-climate-backward-at-least-12-million-years-harvard-scientist-says/#5797badf963e
     “’The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero,’ Anderson said, with 75 to 80 percent of permanent ice having melted already in the last 35 years. ‘Can we lose 75-80 percent of permanent ice and recover? The answer is no.’ The answer is no in part because of what scientists call feedbacks, some of the ways the earth responds to warming. ”
239. Nerille Abran et al (2019) – Special Report on Oceans and Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_SPM_Approved.pdf  – 51 autores“For stabilised global warming of 1.5°C the annual probability of a sea ice free September by the end of century is approximately 1%, which rises to 10–35% for stabilised global warming of 2°C (high confidence). There is low confidence in projections for Antarctic sea ice. ”
240. Roman Olson et al (2019) – A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models – Nature Communications 10:3016 doi:10.1038/s41467-019-10561-x – Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University + 2 Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science,South Korea + Pusan National University – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10561-x.pdf – 6 autores
     “Most likely, September Arctic sea ice will effectively disappear at between approximately 2 and 2.5 K of global warming. Yet, limiting the warming to 1.5 K under the Paris agreement may not be sufficient to prevent the ice-free Arctic … The overall mean for the GMST change to melt is 2.54 K, and the 90% posterior credible interval is (1.49, 3.83) K.”
241. P. Rampal et al (2011) – IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline – Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 116 C00D07 doi:10.1029/2011JC007110 – Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology + Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l’Environnement, CNRS/Université Joseph Fourier – http://web.mit.edu/~rampal/rampal_homepage/Publications_files/Rampal_etal2011.pdf – 4 autores
     “In this study we show that IPCC climate models underestimate the observed thinning trend by a factor of almost 4 on average and fail to capture the associated accelerated motion. The coupling between the ice state (thickness and concentration) and ice velocity is unexpectedly weak in most models.”
242. Jennifer Francis (2015) – A melting Arctic and weird weather: the plot thickens – The Conversation, 18/02/2015 – Research Professor at Rutgers University – https://theconversation.com/a-melting-arctic-and-weird-weather-the-plot-thickens-37314
     “WIn only 30 years, its volume has declined by about 60%, which is causing ripple effects throughout the ocean, atmosphere, and ecosystem, both within the Arctic and beyond. I’ve been studying the Arctic atmosphere and sea ice my entire career and I never imagined I’d see the region change so much and so fast.”
243. Vishnu Nandan et al (2017) – Effect of Snow Salinity on CryoSat‐2 Arctic First‐Year Sea Ice Freeboard Measurements – Geophysical Research Letters 44:10,419-10,426 doi:10.1002/2017GL074506 – Cryosphere Climate Research Group, Department of Geography, University of Calgary – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2017GL074506 – 9 autores
     “Relative error reductions of ~11% are found for an ice thickness of 0.95 m and ~25% for 0.7 m … Our results indicate that snow salinity should be considered for FYI freeboard estimates.»
244. Heidi Sallila et al (2019) – Assessment of contemporary satellite sea ice thickness products for Arctic sea ice – The Cryosphere 13:1187–1213 doi:10.5194/tc-13-1187-2019 – Marine Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute – https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/1187/2019/tc-13-1187-2019.pdf
     “There is disagreement among the products in terms of the magnitude of the mean thickness trends, especially in spring 2017. Regional comparisons reveal noticeable differences in ice thickness between products, particularly in the marginal seas in areas of considerable ship traffic.»
245. Dirk Notz (2009) – The future of ice sheets and sea ice: Between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 106:20590-20595 doi:10.1073/pnas.0902356106 – 02/11/2009 – Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
     “Recently, a number of studies found that it is indeed probable that no such instability exists for the loss of Arctic summer sea ice, whereas an instability might well exist for the transition from a seasonally ice-covered Arctic Ocean to an Arctic Ocean that is virtually free of sea ice throughout the entire year (refs).”
246. Timothy M. Lenton (2012) – Arctic Climate Tipping Points – AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 41:10-22 doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0221-x – College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter + UK and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
     “Loss of winter (i.e. year-round) ice is more likely to represent a bifurcation (Fig. 1a), where the system can switch rapidly and irreversibly from one state (with seasonal ice) to another (without any) (Eisenman and Wettlaufer 2009). However, the tipping point for year-round ice loss requires around 13 C warming at the North Pole (Winton 2006). This could only occur this century under high anthropogenic emissions scenarios with fairly strong polar amplification of warming (Fig. 3). ”
247. Timothy M. Lenton (2012) – Arctic Climate Tipping Points – AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 41:10-22 doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0221-x – College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter + UK and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
     “Arguably such a transition might already be underway, but there is currently insufficient information to link a tipping point to global temperature. ”
248. V.N. Livina and T. M. Lenton (2013) – A recent tipping point in the Arctic sea-ice cover: abrupt and persistent increase in the seasonal cycle since 2007 – The Cryosphere 7:275–286 doi:10.5194/tc-7-275-2013 – National Physical Laboratory, Teddington + School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia + College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter
     “There is ongoing debate over whether Arctic sea ice has already passed a «tipping point», or whether it will do so in the future … Examination of satellite data for Arctic sea-ice area reveals an abrupt increase in the amplitude of seasonal variability in 2007 that has persisted since then … We originally interpreted this as a bifurcation in which a new lower ice cover attractor appears in deseasonalised fluctuations and is sampled in every summer–autumn from 2007 onwards … Our statistical methods detect this «tipping point» and its time of onset.”
249. Timothy M. Lenton (2011) – Early warning of climate tipping points – Nature Climate Change 1:201–209 doi:10.1038/nclimate1143 – College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter + UK and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia – https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/3487lenton.pdf
     “Recent assessments give an increased probability of future tipping events, and the corresponding impacts are estimated to be large, making them significant risks. Recent work shows that early warning of an approaching climate tipping point is possible in principle, and could have considerable value in reducing the risk that they pose.”
250. Sergey V. Buldyrev et al (2010) – Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks – Nature 464:1025-1028 doi:10.1038/nature08932 – Department of Physics, Yeshiva University – http://polymer.bu.edu/hes/articles/bppsh10.pdf – 5 autores
     “Modern systems are coupled together15, 16, 17, 18, 19 and therefore should be modelled as interdependent networks. A fundamental property of interdependent networks is that failure of nodes in one network may lead to failure of dependent nodes in other networks … We present exact analytical solutions for the critical fraction of nodes that, on removal, will lead to a failure cascade and to a complete fragmentation of two interdependent networks. Surprisingly, a broader degree distribution increases the vulnerability of interdependent networks to random failure, which is opposite to how a single network behaves.”
251. M. G. Flanner et al (2011) – Radiative forcing and albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere between 1979 and 2008 – Nature Geoscience 4:151–155 doi:10.1038/ngeo1062 – Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan – 5 autores
     “We find that cyrospheric cooling declined by 0.45 W m⁻² from 1979 to 2008, with nearly equal contributions from changes in land snow cover and sea ice. On the basis of these observations, we conclude that the albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere falls between 0.3 and 1.1 W m⁻² K⁻¹, substantially larger than comparable estimates obtained from 18 climate models.”
252. Timothy M. Lenton (2012) – Arctic Climate Tipping Points – AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 41:10-22 doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0221-x – College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter + UK and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
     “The strength of summer storm cyclones in the Arctic basin also increased and contributed to sea-ice decline (Simmonds and Keay 2009). ”
253. Yinghui Liu et al (2012) – A cloudier Arctic expected with diminishing sea ice – Geophysical Research Letters 39 L05705 doi:10.1029/2012GL051251 – Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison – 5 autores
     “In this study, an equilibrium feedback assessment is employed to quantify the relationship between changes in sea ice and clouds, using satellite-derived sea ice concentration and cloud cover over the period 2000–2010. Results show that a 1% decrease in sea ice concentration leads to a 0.36–0.47% increase in cloud cover, suggesting that a further decline in sea ice cover will result in an even cloudier Arctic.”
254. J. C. Acosta Navarro et al (2016) – Amplification of Arctic warming by past air pollution reductions in Europe – Nature Geoscience 9:277–281 doi:10.1038/ngeo2673 – Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry (ACES) + Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University – 9 autores
     «As a result of measures to enhance air quality, anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter and its precursors have drastically decreased in parts of the Northern Hemisphere over the past three decades … the Arctic region receives an additional 0.3 W m⁻² of energy, and warms by 0.5 °C on annual average in simulations with declining European sulfur emissions … Arctic warming is amplified mainly in fall and winter, but the warming is initiated in summer by an increase in incoming solar radiation as well as an enhanced poleward oceanic and atmospheric heat transport. The simulated summertime energy surplus reduces sea-ice cover, which leads to a transfer of heat from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere.”
255. Hyung-Gyu Lim, Jong-Seong Kug and Jong-Yeon Park (2019) – Biogeophysical feedback of phytoplankton on Arctic climate. Part II: Arctic warming amplified by interactive chlorophyll under greenhouse warming – Climate Dynamics 53:3167–3180 doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04693-5 – Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Chonbuk National University
     “It has been shown that the interaction between marine phytoplankton and climate systems may intensify Arctic warming in the future via shortwave heating associated with increased spring chlorophyll bloom … additional biological warming will contribute to future Arctic warming. This study suggests that effects of the mean chlorophyll and its variability should be considered to the sensitivity of Arctic warming via biogeophysical feedback processes in future projections using earth system models.”
256. Jinlun Zhang et al (2013) – The impact of an intense summer cyclone on 2012 Arctic sea ice retreat – Geophysical Research Letters 40:720–726 doi:10.1002/grl.50190 – Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington – http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/Pubs/Zhang_etal2013_cyclone_grl50190.pdf  – 4 authors
     “Without the storm, 2012 would still have produced a record minimum.”
257. Claire L. Parkinson and Josefino C. Comiso (2013) – On the 2012 record low Arctic sea ice cover: Combined impact of preconditioning and an August storm – Geophysical Research Letters 40:1356–1361 doi:10.1002/grl.50349 – Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50349/pdf
     “Preconditioning through decades of overall ice reductions made the ice pack more vulnerable to a strong storm that entered the central Arctic in early August 2012 … Future summer storms could lead to a further acceleration of the decline in the Arctic sea ice cover.”
258. Wieslaw Maslowski et al (2012) – The Future of Arctic Sea Ice – Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 40:625-654 doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105345 – 08/03/2012 – Department of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey – http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105345 – 4 autores
     “One can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover.”
259. Jonathan Amos – Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’ – BBC News San Francisco – 12/12/2007 – – http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm
     “Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team … ‘Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007 … you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.’.”
260. Nick Collins – Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015’ – The Telegraph, 10/11/2011 – http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/8877491/Arctic-sea-ice-to-melt-by-2015.html
     “Prof Wadhams said: «His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around. «It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen.» ”
261. John Vidal – Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years – The Guardian, 17/09/2012 – http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice?CMP=EMCENVEML1631
     “In an email to the Guardian [Wadhams] he says:  «This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates». ”
262. Julia Rosen (2017) – Arctic 2.0: What happens after all the ice goes? – Nature 542:152–154 doi:10.1038/542152a – https://www.nature.com/news/arctic-2-0-what-happens-after-all-the-ice-goes-1.21431
     “In the best-case scenario, the Arctic is in for a 4–5 °C temperature rise, says James Overland, an oceanographer at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Seattle, Washington. “We really don’t have any clue about how disruptive that’s going to be.”»
263. Associated Press (2007) – Arctic sea ice gone in summer within five years? – Íbidem
     “’Now as a sign of climate warming, the canary has died. It is time to start getting out of the coal mines.’.”
264. Erling Moxnes and Ali Kerem Saysel (2008) – Misperceptions of global climate change: information policies – Climatic Change 93:15-37 doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9465-2 – System Dynamics Group, Department of Geography, University of Bergen; Institute of Environmental Sciences, Bogaziçi University – http://www.schusterweb.com/Isee/papers/8358_SayselAK.pdf
     “There are many aspect of the climate change problem that could be misperceived.3 Our focus is on the dynamics of CO2 accumulation … of particular relevance here is a study of global warming by Sterman and Booth Sweeney (2002) and an updated version of this study (Sterman and Sweeney 2007), the latter will be referred to as S&S. We build on the above studies in a set of laboratory experiments with novel treatment designs.”
265. Adrian Cho (2018) – Nobel Prize for the economics of innovation and climate change stirs controversy – Science News, 08/10/2018 – https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/10/roles-ideas-and-climate-growth-earn-duo-economics-nobel-prize“Instead of spurring governments to take action against climate change, Nordhaus’s approach has been used to justify putting it off, Steinberger argues. “His kind of analysis has been used to delay, delay, delay,” she says. In 1992 Nordhaus published an analysis in which he identified 3°C as the optimum temperature increase for the growth of capital, although he has since modified that position.”
266. Tariq Banuri et al (2001) – Cambio climático 2001: Mitigación. Resumen para responsables de políticas – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – 32 autores
     “La referencia a un nivel de concentración en particular no significa que haya acuerdo en cuanto a la conveniencia de lograr la estabilización a ese nivel. La elección de los 550 ppmv se basa en el hecho de que la mayoría de los estudios que se encuentran en la bibliografía analizan este nivel, y no implica la aceptación de este nivel como objetivo de las políticas de mitigación del cambio climático.” (np. 4)
267. Ottmar Edenhofer et al (2014) – Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – http://report.mitigation2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers_approved.pdf – 57 autores
     “Mitigation scenarios, including those reaching 2100 concentrations as high as or higher than 550 ppm CO2eq, can temporarily ‘overshoot’ atmospheric CO2eq concentration levels before descending to lower levels later. Such concentration overshoot involves less mitigation in the near term with more rapid and deeper emissions reductions in the long run. Overshoot increases the probability of exceeding any given temperature goal … Table SPM.1 | Key characteristics of the scenarios collected and assessed for WGIII AR5. For all parameters, the 10th to 90th percentile of the scenarios is shown.1, 2 [Table 6.3] … < 430: Only a limited number of individual model studies have explored levels below 430 ppm CO2eq.”
268. James Hansen et al (2008) – Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? – The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2:217-231 doi:10.2174/1874282300802010217 – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies + Columbia University Earth Institute – http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2008/2008_Hansen_etal.pdf – 10 autores
     “If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm, but likely less than that.”
269. Clair Gough and Paul Upham (2011) – Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS or Bio-CCS) – Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 1:324-334 doi:10.1002/ghg – University of Manchester; University of Manchester + Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki + University of Leeds
     “Moreover, using global energy-economy models to analyze the costs and feasibility of meeting atmospheric CO2 stabilization targets, various studies have found that whilst it may reduce the cost of reaching a 450 ppm target, BECCS becomes critical in meeting a 350 ppm target [refs].”
270. Frank Ackerman et al (2009) – The Economics of 350: The Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization – Economics for Equity and the Environment Network – Stockholm Environment Institute – U.S. Center, Tufts University – http://www.e3network.org/papers/Economics_of_350.pdf – 8 autores
     “The GET model, developed by Christian Azar and Kristian Lindgren at Chalmers University in Sweden, also has been used to project the costs of a 350 ppm CO2 stabilization target (Azar et al. 2006) … Costs peak at 5 percent of GDP in 2030 for 350 ppm CO2 without CCS — or at 3 percent of GDP in 2070–2080 for 350 ppm CO2 with CCS. ”
271. Chris Mooney & Brady Dennis – «We Are in Deep Trouble»: Carbon Emissions Break Record in Devastating Global Setback – Science Alert, 27/03/2019 – https://www.sciencealert.com/coal-plants-are-emitting-more-than-ever-and-we-are-headed-for-disaster
     “But with a renewal of growth in 2017 and record highs in 2018, turning the corner on emissions remains nowhere in sight … ‘We are in deep trouble,’ [Rob[ Jackson [professor of Earth system science at Stanford University] said of Monday’s findings. ‘The climate consequences are catastrophic. I don’t use any word like that very often. But we are headed for disaster, and nobody seems to be able to slow things down.’.
272. Zeke Hausfather – Fossil-fuel emissions in 2018 increasing at fastest rate for seven years – Carbon Brief, 06/12/2018 – University of California, Berkeley – https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-fossil-fuel-emissions-in-2018-increasing-at-fastest-rate-for-seven-years
     “Hopes that global CO2 emissions might be nearing a peak have been dashed by preliminary data showing that output from fossil fuels and industry will grow by around 2.7% in 2018, the largest increase in seven years … The rapid increase in 2018 … follows a smaller 1.6% rise in 2017. Before that, three years of flat emissions output to 2016 had raised hopes that emissions had peaked.
273. R.B. Jackson et al (2018) – Global energy growth is outpacing decarbonization – Environmental Research Letters 13:120401 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf303 – Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment + Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University – https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf303/pdf – 8 autores
     “Short of a global economic downturn, global CO2 emissions in 2019 are likely to rise further … We do not know whether CO2 emissions in 2019 will grow as fast as the 2.7% rate we forecast for 2018. However, projected economic growth of 6%– 8% for India and China and 2.5% in the United States (World Bank 2018) would almost certainly increase emissions over this year’s value of 37.1 ± 1.8 Gt CO2.
274. Timothée Parrique et al (2019) – Decoupling debunked – Evidence and arguments against green growth as a sole strategy for sustainability – European Environmental Bureau – 08/07/2019 – – https://mk0eeborgicuypctuf7e.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Decoupling-Debunked-FULL-for-ONLINE.pdf – 7 autores
     “There are at least seven reasons to be sceptical about the occurrence of sufficient decoupling in the future. Each of them taken individually casts doubt on the possibility for sufficient decoupling and, thus, the feasibility of “green growth.” Considered all together, the hypothesis that decoupling will allow economic growth to continue without a rise in environmental pressures appears highly compromised, if not clearly unrealistic.”
275. David Apell – What RCP is the World Actually On? – David Apell, 06/08/2019 – https://davidappell.blogspot.com/2019/08/what-rcp-is-world-actually-on.html
     “I got the CO2 values for the year by taking the annual CO2 radiative forcing (RF) … and using the equation RF=(5.35 W/m2)*ln(C/C₀) to calculate C, which here means CO2 and C₀=278 ppm … To find an actual value, I linear interpolated between their values for each year to get our actual RCP value … now the value is stabilized, for now at least, at 6.8. So we’re at RCP6.8.
276. Zeke Hausfather – Explainer: The high-emissions ‘RCP8.5’ global warming scenario – Carbon Brief, 21/08/2019 – University of California, Berkeley – https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario
     “Moss and colleagues specifically state that “RCP8.5 cannot be used as a no-climate-policy reference scenario for the other RCPs because RCP8.5’s socioeconomic, technology and biophysical assumptions differ from those of the other RCPs.” … It is likely one of the factors that gave rise to the use of RCP8.5 as the default “business-as-usual” scenario in the academic literature and in the media.
277. Brandon Graver, Kevin Zhang and Dan Rutherford (2019) – CO2 emissions from commercial aviation, 2018 – The International Council on Clean Transportation – https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_CO2-commercl-aviation-2018_20190918.pdf
     “Total CO2 emissions from all commercial operations, including passenger movement, belly freight, and dedicated freight, totaled 918 million metric tons (MMT) in 2018. That is 2.4% of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and a 32% increase over the past five years. Further, this emissions growth rate is 70% higher than assumed under current ICAO projections.”
278. Travis W. Drake et al (2019) – Mobilization of aged and biolabile soil carbon by tropical deforestation – Nature Geoscience doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0384-9 – 24/06/2019 – Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University + Geochemistry Group, National High Magnetic Field Laboratory, Tallahassee, FL, US – 11 autores
     “We suggest that organic matter from deforested landscapes is preferentially respired upon disturbance … Ultimately, the exposure of deeper soil horizons through deforestation and agricultural expansion releases old, previously stable, and biolabile soil organic carbon into the modern carbon cycle via the aquatic pathway.»
279. Åsa Horgby et al (2019) – Unexpected large evasion fluxes of carbon dioxide from turbulent streams draining the world’s mountains – Nature Communications 10:4888 doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12905-z – 25/10/2019 – Stream Biofilm and Ecosystem Research Laboratory, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12905-z.pdf – 8 autores
     “Inland waters, including streams and rivers, are active components of the global carbon cycle … we found that areal CO2 evasion fluxes from mountain streams equal or exceed those reported from tropical and boreal streams, typically regarded as hotspots of aquatic carbon fluxes … At a global scale, we estimate the CO2 evasion from mountain streams to 167 ± 1.5 Tg C yr−1, which is high given their relatively low areal contribution to the global stream and river networks.”
280. Corinne Le Quéré et al (2018) – Global Carbon Budget 2018 – Earth System Science Data 10:2141–2194 doi:10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018 – Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia – https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/2141/2018/essd-10-2141-2018.pdf  – 76 autores“The atmospheric CO2 increase above pre-industrial levels was, initially, primarily caused by the release of carbon to the atmosphere from deforestation and other land-use change activities (Ciais et al., 2013). While emissions from fossil fuels started before the industrial era, they only became the dominant source of anthropogenic emissions to the atmosphere around 1950 and their relative share has continued to increase until present. ”
281. Corinne Le Quéré et al (2016) – Global Carbon Budget 2016 – Earth System Science Data 8:605–649 doi:10.5194/essd-8-605-2016 – Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia – http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/  – 67 autores
     “From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013).”
282. Josep G. Canadell and E. Detlef Schulze (2014) – Global potential of biospheric carbon management for climate mitigation – Nature Communications 5:5282 doi:10.1038/ncomms6282 – 19/11/2014 – Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmospheric Flagship; Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry – https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms6282.pdf
     “The rate of forest conversion into other land uses was 13 Mha per year for the period 2000–2010 (ref. 12) driving a deforestation gross emission flux of 2.8±0.5 PgC per year (net emissions including forest regrowth are 0.9±0.5 PgC per year) … This flux makes deforestation a major component of the global carbon cycle with 70% of the emissions coming from land-use change in the tropics. ”
283. Almut Arneth et al (2019) – Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) Special Report. Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/08/4.-SPM_Approved_Microsite_FINAL.pdf – 67 autores
     “Global models estimate net CO2 emissions of 5.2 ± 2.6 GtCO2 yr-1 (likely range) from land use and land-use change during 2007-16. These net emissions are mostly due to deforestation, partly offset by afforestation/reforestation, and emissions and removals by other land use activities.”
284. Almut Arneth et al (2019) – Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) Special Report. Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/08/4.-SPM_Approved_Microsite_FINAL.pdf – 67 autores
     “Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) activities accounted for around 13% of CO2, 44% of methane (CH4), and 82% of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from human activities globally during 2007-2016.”
285. Josep G. Canadell and E. Detlef Schulze (2014) – Global potential of biospheric carbon management for climate mitigation – Nature Communications 5:5282 doi:10.1038/ncomms6282 – Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmospheric Flagship; Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry – https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms6282.pdf
     “These so-called (IPCC’) Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs [refs], support the potential for strong reductions in emissions from land-use change averaging a decline of 80% of present land-use change emissions from 2005 to 2100, with the fastest changes occurring during the first part of the century.”
286. Hanqin Tian et al (2015) – North American terrestrial CO2 uptake largely offset by CH4 and N2O emissions: toward a full accounting of the greenhouse gas budget – Climatic Change 129:413-426 doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1072-9 – International Center for Climate and Global Change Research and School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University – http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10584-014-1072-9.pdf – 9 autores
     “The terrestrial ecosystems of North America have been identified as a sink of atmospheric CO2 though there is no consensus on the magnitude. However … the emissions of CH4 and N2O from terrestrial ecosystems had offset about two thirds (73 %±14 %) of the land CO2 sink in the North American continent.”
287. E. D. Schulze et al (2009) – Importance of methane and nitrous oxide for Europe’s terrestrial greenhouse-gas balance – Nature Geoscience 2:842–850 doi:10.1038/ngeo686 – The CarboMax-Planck Institut für BiogeochemieEurope Team – https://bit.ly/2Nj9k1X – 25 autores
     “Here we review recent estimates of European carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide fluxes between 2000 and 2005 … the balance for all greenhouse gases across Europe’s terrestrial biosphere is near neutral, despite carbon sequestration in forests and grasslands. The trend towards more intensive agriculture and logging is likely to make Europe’s land surface a significant source of greenhouse gases. The development of land management policies which aim to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions should be a priority.”
288. Gert-Jan Nabuurs et al (2013) – First signs of carbon sink saturation in European forest biomass – Nature Climate Change 3:792–796 doi:10.1038/nclimate1853 – Alterra, Wageningen University and Research – https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/254e/5b485e231e0193986743db9ff2fa940f3271.pdf  – 7 autores
     “European forests are seen as a clear example of vegetation rebound in the Northern Hemisphere; recovering in area and growing stock since the 1950s, after centuries of stock decline and deforestation … We argue that three warnings of saturation  … First, the stem volume increment rate is decreasing and thus the sink is curbing after decades of increase. Second, land use is intensifying, thereby leading to deforestation and associated carbon losses. Third, natural disturbances are increasing and, as a consequence, so are the emissions of CO2. ”
289. Paul I. Palmer et al (2019) – Net carbon emissions from African biosphere dominate pan-tropical atmospheric CO2 signal – Nature Communications 10:3344 doi:10.1038/s41467-019-11097-w – School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh + National Centre for Earth Observation at the University of Edinburgh – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11097-w.pdf – 6 autores
     “Tropical ecosystems are large carbon stores that are vulnerable to climate change … We show that two independent satellite data sets of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) … are consistent with the land tropics being a net annual carbon emission of … 1.03 [+1.73/−0.20] and 1.60 [+2.11/+1.39] petagrams (PgC) in 2015 and 2016, respectively … These signals are present in the space-borne CO2 record from 2009 onwards.”
290. Zhen Yu et al (2019) – Largely underestimated carbon emission from land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States – Global Change Biology 25:3741-3752 doi:10.1111/gcb.14768 – Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University; Global Carbon Project – 4 autores
     “Carbon (C) emission and uptake due to land use and land cover change (LULCC) are the most uncertain term in the global carbon budget … previous C budget analyses based on the global LUH2 dataset have underestimated C emission in the United States.
291. Zhen Yu et al (2019) – Íbidem
     “We take the commonly used FAOSTAT‐based global Land Use Harmonization data (LUH2) and a new high‐resolution multisource harmonized national LULCC database (YLmap) to drive a land ecosystem model (DLEM) in the conterminous United States … This divergence implies that previous C budget analyses based on the global LUH2 dataset have underestimated C emission in the United States.”
292. Hanqin Tian et al (2016) – The terrestrial biosphere as a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere – Nature 531:225–228 doi:10.1038/nature16946 – International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University – 23 autores
     “We find that the cumulative warming capacity of concurrent biogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions is a factor of about two larger than the cooling effect resulting from the global land carbon dioxide uptake from 2001 to 2010.”
293. Isabel M.D. Rosa et al (2016) – The Environmental Legacy of Modern Tropical Deforestation – Current Biology 26:2161–2166 doi:10.1016/j.cub.2016.06.013 – Imperial College of London + German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research – https://www.cell.com/current-biology/pdf/S0960-9822(16)30625-X.pdf – 5 autores
     “A deforestation event today leads to a time-delayed future release of carbon, from the eventual decay either of forest products or of slash left at the site … Similarly, deforestation often does not result in the immediate loss of species, and communities may exhibit a process of ‘relaxation’ to their new equilibrium over time … Even if deforestation had completely halted in 2010, time lags ensured there would still be a carbon emissions debt of at least 8.6 petagrams, equivalent to 5–10 years of global deforestation, and an extinction debt of more than 140 bird, mammal, and amphibian forest-specific species, which if paid, would increase the number of 20th-century extinctions in these groups by 120%.”
294. Natalie M Mahowald et al (2017) – Are the Impacts of Land Use on Warming Underestimated in Climate Policy? – Environmental Research Letters 12:094016 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa836d –Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future, Cornell University – https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa836d/pdf – 5 autores
     “Projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a ‘business as usual’ future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 ◦C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100.”
295. Almut Arneth et al (2017) – Historical carbon dioxide emissions caused by land-use changes are possibly larger than assumed – Nature Geoscience 10:79–84 doi:10.1038/ngeo2882 – Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Deptartment of Atmospheric Environmental Research – 22 autores
     “Dynamic global vegetation model simulations suggest that CO2 emissions from land-use change have been substantially underestimated because processes such as tree harvesting and land clearing from shifting cultivation have not been considered. As the overall terrestrial sink is constrained, a larger net flux as a result of land-use change implies that terrestrial uptake of CO2 is also larger, and that terrestrial ecosystems might have greater potential to sequester carbon in the future.”
296. Gensuo Jia, Elena Shevliakova et al (2019) – Climate Change and Land (SRCCL). Chapter 2: Land-Climate Interactions – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/08/2c.-Chapter-2_FINAL.pdf – 41 autores
     “Agriculture is the largest source [of N2O] and has increased with the extensification and intensification. Recent modelling estimates of terrestrial sources show a higher emissions range that is slightly more constrained than what was reported in AR5: approximately 9 (7–11) Tg N2O-N yr- 13 1 (Saikawa et al. 2014; Tian et al. 2016) compared to 6.6 (3.3–9.0) Tg N2O-N yr-1 (Ciais et al. 2013a).”
297. Peter Richards et al (2016) – Are Brazil’s Deforesters Avoiding Detection? – Conservation Letters doi:10.1111/conl.12310 – Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, Brown University; Bureau for Food Security, United States Agency for International Development – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12310/epdf  – 5 autores
     “As a consequence, we argue that recent successes in protecting monitored forests in the Brazilian Amazon may be doing less to protect the region’s forests than previously assumed.”
298. Mikaela Weisse and Elizabeth Dow Goldman – 2017 Was the Second-Worst Year on Record for Tropical Tree Cover Loss – World Resources Institute, 26/06/2018 – https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/06/2017-was-second-worst-year-record-tropical-tree-cover-loss
     “total, the tropics experienced 15.8 million hectares (39.0 million acres) of tree cover loss in 2017, an area the size of Bangladesh. That’s the equivalent of losing 40 football fields of trees every minute for an entire year.”
299. Fiona Harvey – World losing area of forest the size of the UK each year, report finds – The Guardian – – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/12/deforestation-world-losing-area-forest-size-of-uk-each-year-report-finds“The ultimate goal of the declaration, to halt deforestation by 2030 – potentially saving as much carbon as taking all the world’s cars off the roads – now looks further away than when the commitment was made. In Latin America, south-east Asia, and Africa – the major tropical forest regions – the annual rate of tree cover loss increased markedly between 2014 and 2018, compared with 2001 to 2013.”
300. Xiao-Peng Song et al (2018) – Global land change from 1982 to 2016 – Nature 560:639–643 doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0411-9 -Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland – 7 autores
     “We show that—contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined globally [ref]—tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km² (+7.1% relative to the 1982 level). This overall net gain is the result of a net loss in the tropics being outweighed by a net gain in the extratropics … Of all land changes, 60% are associated with direct human activities and 40% with indirect drivers such as climate change. Land-use change exhibits regional dominance.”
301. Euan G. Nisbet, Edward J. Dlugokencky and Philippe Bousquet (2014) – Methane on the Rise−Again – Science 343:439 doi:10.1126/science.1247828 – Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS
     “At a meeting of the European Pergamon Arctic methane group in Kiel, Germany, in November 2013, Crill commented that “data without models are chaos, but models without data are fantasy.” Spatially and temporally, better measurement is essential to identify and quantify methane sources ( 3, 4, 12), but long-term data gathering is in trouble.”
302. Stefanie Kirschke et al (2013) – Three decades of global methane sources and sinks – Nature Geoscience 6:813–823 doi:10.1038/ngeo1955 – LSCE-CEA-UVSQ-CNRS – http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/global/pdf/pep/Kirschke2013_3DecadesMethane.pdf – 48 authors
     “Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20% of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times … Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain … We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.”
303. Gunnar Myhre, Drew Shindell et al (2013) – Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing – Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf – 38 authors
     “The surface mixing ratio of CH4 has increased by 150% since pre-industrial times … with some projections indicating a further doubling by 2100 … Bottom-up estimates of present CH4 emissions range from 542 to 852 TgCH4 yr^–1 … while a recent top-down estimate with uncertainty analysis is 554 ± 56 TgCH4 yr^–1.” (p. 674)
304. A.R. Brandt et al (2014) – Methane Leaks from North American Natural Gas Systems – Science 343:733-735 doi:10.1126/science.1247045 – Stanford University – 16 authors
     “Because of the high global warming potential of methane (CH4, the major component of NG), climate benefits from NG use depend on system leakage rates. Some recent estimates of leakage have challenged the benefits of switching from coal to NG, a large near-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction opportunity [refs]. Also, global atmospheric CH₄ concentrations are on the rise, with the causes still poorly understood (4).”
305. Dario Caro et al (2014) – Global and regional trends in greenhouse gas emissions from livestock – Climatic Change 126: 203–216 doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1197-x – Ecodynamics group, Department of Earth, Environmental and Physical Sciences, University of Siena
     “We find that in 2010 emissions of methane and nitrous oxide related to livestock worldwide represented approximately 9 % of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions … Our results reveal important details of how livestock production and associated GHG emissions have occurred in time and space.”
306. Euan G. Nisbet, Edward J. Dlugokencky and Philippe Bousquet (2014) – Íbidem
     “More data are needed to resolve the divergence between top-down and bottom-up estimates, but the measurement network for methane concentration and isotopes is very thin … Despite methane’s attractiveness as a cost-effective greenhouse reduction target, budgets for greenhouse gas monitoring are contracting. Somewhere, perhaps in the tropics or East Asia, unwelcome methane surprises may lurk, but watchers are few.”
307. Alexander J. Turner, Christian Frankenberg, and Eric A. Kort (2019) – Interpreting contemporary trends in atmospheric methane – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1814297116 – Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Berkeley; Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences + Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan
     “Atmospheric methane plays a major role in controlling climate, yet contemporary methane trends (1982–2017) have defied explanation with numerous, often conflicting, hypotheses proposed in the literature … While uncertainties in the methane budget exist, they should not detract from the potential of methane emissions mitigation strategies. We show that net-zero cost emission reductions can lead to a declining atmospheric burden, but can take three decades to stabilize.”
308. Scot M. Miller et al (2013) – Anthropogenic emissions of methane in the United States – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 110:20018-20022 doi:10.1073/pnas.1314392110 – Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/50/20018.full.pdf – 15 authors
     “We find greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and fossil fuel extraction and processing (i.e., oil and/or natural gas) are likely a factor of two or greater than cited in existing studies. Effective national and state greenhouse gas reduction strategies may be difficult to develop without appropriate estimates of methane emissions from these source sectors.”
309. E. G. Nisbet, M. R. Manning, E. J. Dlugokencky et al (2019) – Very Strong Atmospheric Methane Growth in the 4 Years 2014–2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement – Global Biochemical Cycles 33:318-342 doi:10.1029/2018GB006009 – Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Climate Change Research Institute, School of Geography Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington; Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2018GB006009 – 23 autores
     “Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7 ± 0.5 ppb/year), 2015 (10.1 ± 0.7 ppb/year), 2016 (7.0 ± 0.7 ppb/year), and 2017 (7.7 ± 0.7 ppb/year), at rates not observed since the 1980s. The increase in the methane burden began in 2007 … The causes of methane’s recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and subtropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both.”
310. Marielle Saunois et al (2018) – The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017 – Earth System Science Data doi:10.5194/essd-2019-128 – Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay – https://www.earth-syst-sci-data-discuss.net/essd-2019-128/essd-2019-128.pdf – 91 authors
     “For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down approach) to be 572 Tg CH4  yr^–1 (range 538–593, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the ensemble), of which 357 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ~ 60 % are attributed to anthropogenic sources (range 50–65 %) … Bottom-up methods suggest larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4  yr⁻¹, range 583–880) than top-down inversion methods.”
311. Marielle Saunois et al (2018) – Íbidem
     “On decadal timescales, the annual increase is on average 2.1±0.3 ppb yr^-1 for 2000-2009, 6.6±0.3 ppb yr^-1 for 2008-2017 and 6.1±1.0 ppb yr⁻¹ for the year 2017. From 1999 to 2006, the annual increase of atmospheric CH₄ was remarkably small at 0.6±0.1 ppb yr^-1. After 2006, the atmospheric growth rate has recovered to a level similar to that of the mid-1990s (~5 ppb yr^-1), or even to that of the 1980s for 2014 and 2015 (>10 ppb yr^-1). ”
312. Sara E. Mikaloff Fletcher and Hinrich Schaefer (2019) – Rising methane: A new climate challenge – Science 364:932-933 doi:10.1126/science.aax1828 – National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington
     “The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios that limit warming to 1.5°C assume that the amount of CH₄ in the atmosphere will decrease by 35% between 2010 and 2050 (13). Yet, between 2007 and 2014, the amount has risen by an average of 5.7 parts per billion (ppb) per year, and by an average of 9.7 ppb per year since 2014. If this rise continues unabated, cuts to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will need to be even steeper to achieve the Paris goal.”
313. Matthew J. Gidden et al (2019) – Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century – Geoscientific Model Development 12:1443–1475 doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019 – International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis – https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/1443/2019/gmd-12-1443-2019.pdf – 23 authors
     “The set of scenarios is bounded on the low end by a 1.9 Wm−2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of century temperatures well below 2 ◦C, and on the high end by a 8.5 Wm⁻² scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 ◦C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6.”
314. Xiangyin Ni and Peter M. Groffman (2018) – Declines in methane uptake in forest soils – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 116:8587-8590 doi:10.1073/pnas.1807377115 – Institute of Ecology and Forestry, Sichuan Agricultural University; Advanced Science Research Center at The Graduate Center, Brooklyn College Department of Earth + Environmental Sciences, City University of New York + Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/34/8587.full.pdf
     “Forest soils are a sink for atmospheric methane (CH4) and play an important role in modulating the global CH₄ budget … We measured soil to atmosphere net CH4 fluxes in temperate forests at two long-term ecological research sites in the northeastern United States from the late 1990s to the mid-2010s. We found that annual soil CH₄ uptake decreased by 62% and 53% in urban and rural forests in Baltimore, Maryland and by 74% and 89% in calcium-fertilized and reference forests at Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire over this period. This decrease occurred despite marked declines in nitrogen deposition and increases in atmospheric CH₄ concentration and temperature, which should lead to increases in CH₄ uptake … We conclude that the soil CH₄ sink may be declining and overestimated in several regions across the globe.”
315. Sara E. Mikaloff Fletcher and Hinrich Schaefer (2019) – Íbid.
     “The resulting ¹³C/¹²C balance restricts fossil fuels to half of total additional emissions since 2007 … Such a wetland climate feedback challenges the commonly held view that wetland area rather than temperature is the main control of wetland CH4 … If natural wetlands, or changes in atmospheric chemistry, indeed accelerated the CH4 rise, it may be a climate feedback that humans have little hope of slowing. Although studies have demonstrated the potential for substantial CH4-climate feedbacks, they were expected to occur gradually, not reaching the magnitude observed by Nisbet et al. for decades (12).”
316. Philip M. Fearnside & Salvador Pueyo (2012) – Greenhouse-gas emissions from tropical dams – Nature Climate Change 2:382–384 doi:10.1038/nclimate1540 – National Institute for Research in Amazonia; Institut Català de Ciències del Clima – https://bit.ly/2J3ffoq
     “Various mathematical errors have resulted in Brazil’s electrical authorities estimating the magnitude of emissions from reservoir surfaces at a level of only one-fourth what it should be (see detailed explanation in ref. 15). … However, the Eletrobrás calculation contains no less than five mathematical errors, including a change of sign from positive to negative … Unfortunately, these dams can be expected to have cumulative emissions that exceed those of fossil-fuel generation for periods that can extend for several decades, making them indefensible on the basis of global warming mitigation.”
317. Touché Howard, Thomas W. Ferrara and Amy Townsend-Small (2015) – Sensor transition failure in the high flow sampler: Implications for methane emission inventories of natural gas infrastructure – Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 65:856-862 doi:10.1080/10962247.2015.1025925 – 16/06/2015 – Indaco Air Quality Services, Inc; Conestoga-Rovers & Associates; Department of Geology, University of Cincinnati
     “Quantification of leaks from natural gas (NG) infrastructure is a key step in reducing emissions of the greenhouse gas methane (CH₄) … The extent to which this issue [sensor inadequacy] has affected recent emission studies … could be widespread. Furthermore, it is critical that this problem be resolved before the onset of regulations on CH₄ emissions from the oil and gas industry, as the BHFS is a popular instrument for these measurements.”
318. Rafael M. Almeida et al (2019) – Reducing greenhouse gas emissions of Amazon hydropower with strategic dam planning – Nature Communications 10:4281 doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12179-5 – Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12179-5.pdf – 16 autores
     “Here we show how carbon intensities of proposed Amazon upland dams (median = 39 kg CO2eq MWh⁻¹, 100-year horizon) are often comparable with solar and wind energy, whereas some lowland dams (median = 133 kg CO2eq MWh⁻¹) may exceed carbon intensities of fossil-fuel power plants.”
319. Mitchell Anderson – Wildly Underestimated Oilsands Emissions Latest Blow to Alberta’s Dubious Climate Claims – The Tyee, 03/05/2019 – https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2019/05/03/Oilsands-Emissions-Wildly-Underestimated/
     “In a bizarre arrangement, the Alberta oil patch pays for its own oversight through the Alberta Energy Regulator — a regulatory body 100-per-cent funded by the fossil fuel sector. What could go wrong? The latest boondoggle was revealed by an Environment Canada study published in the prestigious journal Nature Communications.” It showed the methodology that energy companies have used for years to calculate carbon dioxide and methane emissions from oilsands surface mining operations underestimated contributions to global warming by a whopping 64 per cent. ”
320. John Liggio et al (2019) – Measured Canadian oil sands CO2emissions are higher than estimates made using internationally recommended methods – Nature Communications 10:1863 doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09714-9 – Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09714-9.pdf – 11 autores
     “The results indicate that CO₂ emission intensities for OS facilities are 13–123% larger than those estimated using publically available data. This leads to 64% higher annual GHG emissions from surface mining operations, and 30% higher overall OS GHG emissions (17 Mt) compared to that reported by industry.”
321. Ramón A. Alvarez et al (2018) – Assessment of methane emissions from the U.S. oil and gas supply chain – Science 361:186-188 doi:10.1126/science.aar7204 – Environmental Defense Fund – 24 authors
     “Methane emissions from the U.S. oil and natural gas supply chain were estimated using ground-based, facility-scale measurements and validated with aircraft observations … 2015 supply chain emissions is 13 ± 2 Tg/y, equivalent to 2.3% of gross U.S. gas production. This value is ~60% higher than the U.S. EPA inventory estimate.”
322. Robert W. Howarth (2019) – Ideas and perspectives: is shale gas a major driver of recent increase in global atmospheric methane? – Biogeosciences 16:3033–3046 doi:10.5194/bg-16-3033-2019 – 14/08/2019 – Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University – https://www.biogeosciences.net/16/3033/2019/bg-16-3033-2019.pdf
     “Methane has been rising rapidly in the atmosphere over the past decade … Previous studies have not explicitly considered shale gas, even though most of the increase in natural gas production globally over the past decade is from shale gas … we conclude that shale-gas production in North America over the past decade may have contributed more than half of all of the increased emissions from fossil fuels globally and approximately one-third of the total increased emissions from all sources globally over the past decade.”
323. Lorenzo Cremonese et al (2019) – Emission scenarios of a potential shale gas industry in Germany and the United Kingdom – Elementa Science of the Anthropocene 7:18 doi:10.1525/elementa.359 – Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) – https://www.elementascience.org/articles/10.1525/elementa.359/galley/1635/download/ – 5 autores
     “The emission intensity of a potential European shale gas industry is estimated and compared to national inventories. Results from our science-based prospective scenarios can facilitate an informed discussion among the public and policy makers on the climate impact of a potential shale gas development in Europe, and on the appropriate role of natural gas in the worldwide energy transition.»
324. Reino Unido abandona el ‘fracking’ por la imposibilidad de predecir los seísmos – Público, 02/11/2019 – https://www.publico.es/internacional/fracturacion-hidraulica-londres-abandona-fracking-imposibilidad-predecir-seismos.html
     “El gabinete ministerial ha tomado la decisión sobre la base de un informe de la Autoridad del Petróleo y el Gas (OGA) «que constató que actualmente no es posible predecir con precisión la probabilidad o magnitud de los terremotos relacionados con las operaciones de fracking, según un comunicado del departamento de Energía.”
325. Xiaochi Zhou et al (2019) – Estimation of methane emissions from the U.S. ammonia fertilizer industry using a mobile sensing approach – Elementa. Science in the Anthropocene 7:19 doi:10.1525/elementa.358 – School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University + California Air Resources Board – https://www.elementascience.org/articles/10.1525/elementa.358/galley/1642/download/
     “In this study, we estimate methane emissions from an important downstream consumer of NG, the ammonia fertilizer industry, which commonly uses NG as a feedstock and a fuel for the production of ammonia and other upgraded products. Using a Google Street View (GSV) car equipped with a high-precision methane analyzer … If the sampled plants are representative of the U.S. ammonia fertilizer industry, the industrial-averaged NG loss rate (± standard deviation) is estimated to be … significantly higher than the reported methane emissions … from the U.S. EPA’s Facility Level Information on Greenhouse Gas Tools (FLIGHT). This study begins to fill an important knowledge gap in quantifying methane emissions along the NG value chain, and demonstrates the capability of mobile sensing for characterizing airborne emissions.”
326. Fiona Harvey – Quarter of world’s biggest firms ‘fail to disclose emissions’ – The Guardian, 10/07/2019 – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/10/quarter-of-worlds-biggest-firms-fail-to-disclose-greenhouse-gas-emissions
     “About a quarter of the world’s highest-emitting, publicly listed companies fail to report their greenhouse gas emissions and nearly half do not properly consider the risks from the climate crisis in decision-making, new research has found … It was carried out by the Grantham Research Institute on climate change at the London School of Economics and commissioned by the Transition Pathway Initiative, a group of investors supportive of the Paris agreement.”
327. Rajendra K. Pachauri, Leo Meyer et al (2014) – Cambio Climático 2014: Informe de Síntesis. Contribución de los Grupos de trabajo I, II y III al Quinto Informe de Evaluación del Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático – Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_es.pdf – 51 autores
     “Recuadro 3.2, cuadro 1: Los valores del potencial de calentamiento global (PCG) se han actualizado en los sucesivos informes del IPCC; los valores del PCG100 del Quinto Informe de Evaluación (IE5) son distintos a los adoptados por el primer período de compromiso del Protocolo de Kyoto, que se tomaron del Segundo Informe de Evaluación (IE2) del IPCC. Téngase en cuenta que, por motivos de coherencia, las emisiones de CO₂ equivalente que figuran en otras partes del presente Informe de síntesis también se basan en el IE2 del IPCC, no en los valores del IE5. ” (p. 95)
328. M. Etminan et al (2016) – Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing – Geophysical Research Letters 43:12,614-12,623 doi:10.1002/2016GL071930 – Department of Meteorology, University of Reading – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2016GL071930%4010.1002/%28ISSN%291944-8007.2016GRLEDHIGH – 4 autores
     “New calculations of the radiative forcing (RF) are presented for the three main well‐mixed greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide. Methane’s RF is particularly impacted because of the inclusion of the shortwave forcing; the 1750–2011 RF is about 25% higher (increasing from 0.48 W m−2 to 0.61 W m−2) compared to the value in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 assessment; the 100 year global warming potential is 14% higher than the IPCC value.”
329. Rajendra K. Pachauri, Leo Meyer et al (2014) – Cambio Climático 2014: Informe de Síntesis. Contribución de los Grupos de trabajo I, II y III al Quinto Informe de Evaluación del Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático – Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_es.pdf  – 51 autores
     “La elección de la métrica de las emisiones afecta al calendario y el énfasis dedicado a reducir los agentes de forzamiento climático de corta y larga duración. Con respecto a la mayoría de las métricas, las diferencias de costos a nivel mundial son pequeñas en escenarios de participación mundial y trayectorias de mitigación minimizadoras de costos, pero las consecuencias para distintos países y sectores podrían ser más importantes (evidencia media, nivel de acuerdo alto). ” (p. 96)
330. Rajendra K. Pachauri, Leo Meyer et al (2014) – Íbidem
     “La utilización de valores de PCG100 más recientes del Quinto Informe de Evaluación (barras de la derecha) daría un mayor nivel de emisiones anuales totales de gases de efecto invernadero (52 GtCO2-eq/año) a raíz de una mayor contribución del metano, pero ello no cambiaría la tendencia a largo plazo de manera significativa.”
331. N. Galloway et al (2004) – Nitrogen cycles: Past, present, and future – Biogeochemistry 70:153–226 doi:s10533-004-0370-0 – Environmental Sciences Department, University of Virginia – https://dornsife.usc.edu/assets/sites/125/docs/Galloway_et_al_2004_BGC.pdf – 15 autores
     “Important findings are that human activities increasingly dominate the N budget at the global and at most regional scales, the terrestrial and open ocean N budgets are essentially disconnected, and the fixed forms of N are accumulating in most environmental reservoirs.”
332. K. Kharol et al (2013) – Persistent sensitivity of Asian aerosol to emissions of nitrogen oxides – Geophysical Research Letters 40:1021–1026 doi:10.1002/grl.50234 – Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/grl.50234 – 9 autores
     “In the annual mean, the perturbations on Asian population-weighted ground-level secondary inorganic aerosol concentrations of 34% due to changing nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions are comparable to those from changing either SO₂ (41%) or NH₃ (25%) emissions. The persistent sensitivity to NOx arises from the regional abundance of NH₃ over Asia that promotes ammonium nitrate formation.”
333. Sönke Zaehle et al (2011) – Carbon benefits of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen offset by nitrous oxide emissions – Nature Geoscience doi:10.1038/ngeo1207 – Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Department for Biogeochemical Systems – 4 autores
     “We estimate that carbon sequestration due to nitrogen deposition has reduced current carbon dioxide radiative forcing by 96±14 mW m⁻². However, this effect has been offset by the increase in radiative forcing resulting from nitrous oxide emissions, which amounts to 125±20 mW m⁻².”
334. Mark A. Sutton et al (2011) – Too much of a good thing – Nature 472:159-161 doi:10.1038/472159a – Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh – 6 autores
     “Nitrogen tends to warm the planet by forming N₂O and ground-level ozone, both of which are powerful greenhouse gases. At the same time, nitrogen emissions tend to cool the planet: by reducing the atmospheric life-time of methane; by forming particulate matter that reflects light back into space; and by acting as a fertilizer, increasing the growth of forests. Overall, the assessment finds that these effects tend to balance out.”
335. Mark A. Sutton et al (2011) – The European Nitrogen Assessment: Sources, Effects and Policy Perspectives – Cambridge University Press – 208 autores- http://go.nature.com/5n9lsq
336. Science News – How to Curb Discharge of the Most Potent Greenhouse Gas: 50-Percent Reduction in Meat Consumption and Emissions – Science Daily, 13/04/2012 – http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120413100859.htm
     “The main sources of N₂O in the atmosphere are due to the spreading of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers onto agricultural soils and the use and storage of livestock manure. The nitrogen contained in fertilizers and manure is broken down by microbes that live in the soil and released into the atmosphere as N₂ In order to reduce emissions, it will be necessary to apply certain changes to the food production process.”
337. Alina Freing, Douglas W. R. Wallace and Hermann W. Bange (2012) – Global oceanic production of nitrous oxide – Proceedings of the Royal Society B 367:1245–1255 doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0360 – 05/05/2012 – GEOMAR/Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel – https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2011.0360
     “We estimate that the oceanic N2O production is dominated by nitrification with a contribution of only approximately 7 per cent by denitrification. This indicates that previously used approaches have overestimated the contribution by denitrification… The estimated global annual subsurface N₂O production ranges from 3.1+0.9 to 3.4+0.9 Tg N yr^-1. This is in agreement with estimates of the global N₂O emissions to the atmosphere and indicates that a N₂O source in the mixed layer is unlikely.”
338. Louis A. Codispoti (2010) – Interesting Times for Marine N₂O – Science 327:1339-1340 doi:10.1126/science.1184945 – University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
     “Human activities may be causing an unprecedented rise in the terrestrial N₂O source (2). Marine N₂O production may also rise substantially as a result of eutrophication, warming, and ocean acidification. Because the marine environment is a net producer of N₂O, much of this production will be lost to the atmosphere, thus further intensifying N₂O ‘s climatic impact.”
339. J. Wallington and P. Wiesen (2014) – N2O Emissions from Global Transportation – Atmospheric Environment doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.05.018 – Ford Motor Company, Systems Analytics and Environmental Sciences Department, Research and Advanced Engineering
     “Direct emissions of N₂O from global transportation (land, air, water) are estimated to be 0.142 ± 0.065 Tg N₂O -N yr-1 in 2010 with the majority (≈ 55%) of emissions resulting as an unwanted by-product from catalytic emission control systems of light-duty vehicles. Emissions from global transportation accounted for 3 ± 1 % of current estimates of the total anthropogenic emissions.”
340. Water treatment plant survey shows high emissions of nitrous oxide – Waterworld, 26/05/2010 – https://www.waterworld.com/wastewater/article/16221298/water-treatment-plant-survey-shows-high-emissions-of-nitrous-oxide
     “But the first large-scale survey of 12 plants across the U.S., led by Columbia scientists, shows that the emissions from these waste water treatment plants may be more complex than previously thought; it also challenges the current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency approach for assessing N₂O emissions from such plants.”
341. Allison M. Leach et al (2010) – A nitrogen footprint model to help consumers understand their role in nitrogen losses to the environment – Environmental Development 1:40-66 doi:10.1016/j.envdev.2011.12.005 – Environmental Sciences Department, University of Virginia – 6 autores
     “The N-Calculator focuses on food and energy consumption, using average per capita data for a country. When an individual uses the N-Calculator, the country average is scaled based on the individual’s answers to questions about resource consumption. ”
342. Mark A. Sutton et al (2011) – Íbidem
     “European nitrogen use is therefore not primarily an issue of food security, but one of luxury consumption. If Europeans obtained all their protein from plants, only 30% of the crops grown currently would be needed, reducing nitrogen fertilizer inputs and the associated pollution by 70%.”
343. Chiara Giordano – Emissions from thawing Arctic permafrost may be 12 times higher than thought, scientists say – The Independent, 18/04/2019 – https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/global-warming-greenhouse-gases-emissions-arctic-alaska-a8874456.html
     “It has “conventionally been assumed to have minimal emissions in permafrost regions”, according to a fresh study published in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics journal … Nitrous oxide also poses a second threat because “up in the stratosphere, sunlight and oxygen team up to convert the gas into nitrogen oxides, which eat at the ozone”, Harvard University said in a statement.”
344. R. Ravishankara, John S. Daniel and Robert W. Portmann (2009) – Nitrous Oxide (N₂O): The Dominant Ozone-Depleting Substance Emitted in the 21st Century – Science 326:123-125 doi:10.1126/science.1176985 – Chemical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
     “We show that N₂O emission currently is the single most important ozone-depleting emission and is expected to remain the largest throughout the 21st century.”
345. Bo Elberling, Hanne H. Christiansen & Birger U. Hansen (2010) – High nitrous oxide production from thawing permafrost – 3:332–335 doi:10.1038/NGEO803 – Department of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen, Department of Biology + Department of Geology, The University Centre in Svalbard – https://bit.ly/33DpQQ7
     “We show that 31% of the nitrous oxide produced after thawing and rewetting a 10-cm permafrost core—equivalent to 34 mgNm^-2d^-1—was released to the atmosphere; this is equivalent to daily nitrous oxide emissions from tropical forests on a mean annual basis [ref].”“If these measurements are representative of the whole month, then the permafrost areas we observed emitted a total of around 0.04–0.09 g m⁻² for August, which is comparable to what is typically assumed to be the upper limit of yearly emissions for these regions.”
346. Jordan Wilkerson (2019) – Permafrost nitrous oxide emissions observed on a landscape scale using the airborne eddy-covariance method – Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19:4257-4268 doi: 10.5194/acp-19-4257-2019 – Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Harvard University – https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/19/4257/2019/acp-19-4257-2019.pdf – 7 autores
347. Joon Ho Ahn et al (2010) – N₂O Emissions from Activated Sludge Processes, 2008−2009: Results of a National Monitoring Survey in the United States – Environmental Science and Technology 44:4505-4511 doi:10.1021/es903845y – Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York – 6 autores
     «Additionally, aerobic zones, which have hitherto not been considered in the USEPA approach of estimating N₂O emissions, generally contributed more to N₂O fluxes than anoxic zones from BNR reactors. These results severely qualify the conventional use of a single emission factor to “estimate” N₂O emissions from BNR processes, solely by virtue of denitrification.”
348. Seongeun Jeong et al (2012) – Seasonal variations in N2O emissions from central California – Geophysical Research Letters 39 (16) doi: 10.1029/2012GL052307 – Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory – 8 autores
     “We estimate nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from Central California … Regression analyses … suggesting that actual N₂O emissions are significantly higher than the EDGAR inventories for all seasons …These results suggest that if the spatial distribution of N₂O emissions in California follows the EDGAR emission models, then actual emissions are 2.7 ± 0.5 times greater than the current California emission inventory, and total N2O emissions account for 8.1 ± 1.4% of total greenhouse gas emissions from California.»
349. Eric A. Davidson (2009) – The contribution of manure and fertilizer nitrogen to atmospheric nitrous oxide since 1860 – Nature Geoscience 2:659–662 doi:10.1038/ngeo608 – The Woods Hole Research Center
     “After 1960, the rate of the increase rose, due to accelerating use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. Using a regression model, I show that 2.0% of manure nitrogen and 2.5% of fertilizer nitrogen was converted to nitrous oxide between 1860 and 2005; these percentage contributions explain the entire pattern of increasing nitrous oxide concentrations over this period.”
350. Josep G. Canadell and E. Detlef Schulze (2014) – Íbidem
     “On the basis of these new global estimates, current bioenergy cropping for diesel–rapeseed and ethanol–corn would provide little climate benefits or even net warming, while other crops would have climate benefits below what has been reported.
351. Paul J. Crutzen et al (2016) – N₂O release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels – En: Paul Crutzen,H. Brauch (eds), Paul J. Crutzen: A Pioneer on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Change in the Anthropocene, Chapter 12, ISBN: 978-3-319-27460-7, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-27460-7_12 – 4 autores
     “The relationship, on a global basis, between the amount of N fixed by chemical, biological or atmospheric processes entering the terrestrial biosphere, and the total emission of nitrous oxide (N₂O), has been re-examined … we find an overall conversion factor of 3–5 % from newly fixed N to N₂O –N. We assume the same factor to be valid for biofuel production systems.”
352. Renée van Diemen et al (2019) – Climate Change and Land (SRCCL). Glossary – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/08/2a.-Glossary_FINAL.pdf – 19 authors
     “Permafrost: Ground (soil or rock and included ice and organic material) that remains at or below 0°C for at least two consecutive years … Active layer: The layer of ground that is subject to annual thawing and freezing in areas underlain by permafrost … Thermokarst: The process by which characteristic landforms result from the thawing of ice-rich permafrost or the melting of massive ground ice. ”
353. C. Tarnocai et al (2009) – Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region – Global Biogeochemical Cycles 3:GB2023 doi:10.1029/2008GB003327 – Research Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada – http://www.lter.uaf.edu/dev2009/pdf/1350_Tarnocai_Canadell_2009.pdf – 6 autores
     “The area of all soils in the northern permafrost region is approximately 18,782 × 103 km², or approximately 16% of the global soil area. In the northern permafrost region, organic soils (peatlands) and cryoturbated permafrost-affected mineral soils have the highest mean soil organic carbon contents (32.2–69.6 kg m⁻²). Here we report a new estimate of the carbon pools in soils of the northern permafrost region … In total, the northern permafrost region contains approximately 1672 Pg of organic carbon, of which approximately 1466 Pg, or 88%, occurs in perennially frozen soils and deposits. This 1672 Pg of organic carbon would account for approximately 50% of the estimated global belowground organic carbon pool.”
354. Louise M. Farquharson et al (2019) – Climate change drives widespread and rapid thermokarst development in very cold permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic – Geophysical Research Letters 46:6681-6689  doi:10.1029/2019GL082187 – Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory, University of Alaska Fairbanks – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2019GL082187 – 6 autores
     “Our data illustrate that despite low mean annual ground temperatures, very cold permafrost (<‐10°C) with massive ground ice close to the surface is highly vulnerable to rapid permafrost degradation and thermokarst development … Observed maximum thaw depths at our sites are already exceeding those projected to occur by 2090 under RCP 4.5.”
355. A. Vaks et al (2013) – Speleothems Reveal 500,000-Year History of Siberian Permafrost – Science 340:183-186 doi:10.1126/science.1228729 – Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford – http://www.climategeology.ethz.ch/publications/2013_Vaks_et_al.Scienceexpress.pdf – 9 autores
     “Warming of ~1.5°C (i.e., as in MIS-11) may cause a substantial thaw of continuous permafrost as far north as 60°N, and create wetter conditions in the Gobi Desert. Such warming is therefore expected to dramatically change the environment of continental Asia, and can potentially lead to substantial release of carbon trapped in the permafrost into the atmosphere.”
356. Reuters – Scientists shocked by Arctic permafrost thawing 70 years sooner than predicted – The Guardian, 18/06/2019 – https://www.google.com/search?q=Scientists+shocked+by+Arctic+permafrost+thawing+70+years+sooner+than+predicted
     “A team from the University of Alaska Fairbanks said they were astounded by how quickly a succession of unusually hot summers had destabilised the upper layers of giant subterranean ice blocks that had been frozen solid for millennia … “It’s a canary in the coalmine,” said Louise Farquharson, a postdoctoral researcher and co-author of the study. “It’s very likely that this phenomenon is affecting a much more extensive region and that’s what we’re going to look at next.”
357. Merritt R. Turetsky et al (2019) – Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release – Nature 569:32-34 doi: 10.1038/d41586-019-01313-4 – Chair in the Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph – https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01313-4 – 14 autores
     “Predictions suggest that slow and steady thawing will release around 200 billion tonnes of carbon over the next 300 years under a business-as-usual warming scenario [ref]. That’s equivalent to about 15% of all the soil carbon currently stockpiled in the frozen north. But that could be a vast underestimate … worse, the most unstable regions also tend to be the most carbon-rich [ref].”
358. César Plaza et al (2019) – Direct observation of permafrost degradation and rapid soil carbon loss in tundra – Nature Geoscience 12:627–631 doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0387-6 – Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University + Departamento de Biología y Geología, Física y Química Inorgánica, Escuela Superior de Ciencias Experimentales y Tecnología, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos + Instituto de Ciencias Agrarias, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas – 13 autores
     “Evidence suggests that 5–15% of the vast pool of soil carbon stored in northern permafrost ecosystems could be emitted as greenhouse gases by 2100 under the current path of global warming …we show a loss of soil carbon of 5.4% per year (95% confidence interval: 1.0, 9.5) across the site … as this feedback to climate change may be occurring faster than previously thought.”
359. Katey Walter Anthony et al (2018) – 21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes – Nature Communications 9:3262 doi:10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9 – Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05738-9.pdf – 10 autores »
     “Methane and carbon dioxide emissions from abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes will more than double radiative forcing from circumpolar permafrost-soil carbon fluxes this century … their relative contribution to the PCF is much larger under the moderate warming scenario. Abrupt thaw accelerates mobilization of deeply frozen, ancient carbon, increasing 14C-depleted permafrost soil carbon emissions by ~125–190% compared to gradual thaw alone.”
360. E.A.G. Schuur et al (2015) – Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback – Nature 520:171–179 doi:10.1038/nature14338 – Center for Ecosystem Science and Society and Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University + Department of Biology, University of Florida – https://bit.ly/2lXrifg – 17 autores
     “Increasing evidence from the permafrost zone suggests that abrupt permafrost thaw may be the norm for many parts of the Arctic landscape [refs]. Abrupt permafrost thaw occurs when warming melts ground ice, causing the land surface to collapse into the volume previously occupied by ice. This process, called thermokarst, alters surface hydrology.”
361. Kevin Schaefer et al (2011) – Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming – Tellus B doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x – National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado – 4 autores
     “This estimate may be low because it does not account for … We predict that the PCF will change the arctic from a carbon sink to a source after the mid-2020s and is strong enough to cancel 42–88% of the total global land sink. The thaw and decay of permafrost carbon is irreversible.”
362. Charles D. Koven et al (2011) – Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 108:14769-14774 doi:10.1073/pnas.1103910108 – Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique – http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/08/17/1103910108.full.pdf+html – 8 autores
     “Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO₂ by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario.”
363. Ben Kirtman and Scott B. Power (2013) – Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Chapter 12: Long-Term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf – 55 autores
     “The existing modelling studies of permafrost carbon balance under future warming that take into account at least some of the essential permafrost-related processes [refs] do not yield coherent results beyond the fact that present-day permafrost might become a net emitter of carbon during the 21st century under plausible future warming scenarios (low confidence).”
364. Peter Sinclair – Permafrost is thawing rapidly. How much should we worry? – Yale Climate Connections, 13/06/2019 – https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/06/permafrost-is-thawing-rapidly-how-much-should-we-worry/
     “’I’m very concerned about the state of permafrost ecosystems,’ says Ben Abbott, an assistant professor of ecosystem ecology at Brigham Young University. He and other scientists interviewed in this month’s “This is Not Cool” video, by independent videographer Peter Sinclair, warn that thawing permafrost will have cascading impacts on ecosystems and local infrastructure, which is buckling as it shifts on formerly sturdy ground … ‘It’s really hard to avoid this methane release,’ she says.”
365. B. Teufel & L. Sushama (2019) – Abrupt changes across the Arctic permafrost region endanger northern development – Nature Climate Change 9:858–862 doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0614-6 – McGill University
     “Here we project that soil moisture will decrease abruptly (within a few months) … This regime shift is reflected in abrupt increases in summer near-surface temperature and convective precipitation, and decreases in relative humidity and surface runoff … Combined with increases in forest fuel combustibility, these are projected to abruptly and substantially increase the severity of wildfires, which constitute one of the greatest risks to northern ecosystems, communities and infrastructures.”
366. Jeff Tollefson (2019) – The hard truths of climate change – by the numbers – Nature 573:324-326 doi:10.1038/d41586-019-02711-4 – https://www.nature.com/immersive/d41586-019-02711-4/public/pdf/d41586-019-02711-4.pdf
     “All More than 1 million hectares burned in Alaska this summer … The fire season began unusually early, in April, and has lasted longer than usual And more than 2.6 million hectares have burned in Siberia since July … In June alone they emitted 50 million tonnes of carbon dioxide … more than the total emitted by all Arctic wildfires in the last nine Junes, according to the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service of the European Commission. Even Greenland, which rarely sees wildfires, experienced several during its record heatwave this summer.”
367. Kevin Schaefer et al (2011) – Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming – Tellus B doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x – National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado – 4 authors
     “We predict that the PCF [Permafrost Carbon Feedback] will change the arctic from a carbon sink to a source after the mid-2020s and is strong enough to cancel 42–88% of the total global land sink. The thaw and decay of permafrost carbon is irreversible.”
368. Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost – United Nations Environmental Programme – Noviembre 2012 – http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf
     “The effect of the permafrost carbon feedback on climate has not been included in the IPCC Assessment Reports. None of the climate projections in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report include the permafrost carbon feedback (IPCC 2007). Participating modeling teams have completed their climate projections in support of the Fifth Assessment Report, but these projections do not include the permafrost carbon feedback. Consequently, the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report … will not include the potential effects of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate.”
369. Ben Kirtman and Scott B. Power (2013) – 5th Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis. Chapter 12: Long-Term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf – 55 autores
     “However, the existing modelling studies of permafrost carbon balance under future warming that take into account at least some of the essential permafrost-related processes [refs] do not yield coherent results beyond the fact that present-day permafrost might become a net emitter of carbon during the 21st century under plausible future warming scenarios (low confidence). ”
370. Róisín Commane et al (2017) – Carbon dioxide sources from Alaska driven by increasing early winter respiration from Arctic tundra – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 114:5361-5366 doi:10.1073/pnas.1618567114 – Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences + Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/114/21/5361.full.pdf – 19 autores
     “Long-term records at Barrow, AK, suggest that CO2 emission rates from North Slope tundra have increased during the October through December period by 73% ± 11% since 1975, and are correlated with rising summer temperatures. Together, these results imply increasing early winter respiration and net annual emission of CO2 in Alaska, in response to climate warming.”
371. Susan M. Natali al (2019) – Large loss of CO₂ in winter observed across the northern permafrost region – Nature Climate Change 9:852–857 doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8 – 21/10/2019 – Woods Hole Research Center – 75 authors
     “Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils … We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year) …  Our results provide a baseline for winter CO₂ emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO₂ loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.”
372. Samson Reiny – Arctic Shifts to a Carbon Source due to Winter Soil Emissions – National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 08/11/2019 – https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2019/arctic-shifts-to-a-carbon-source-due-to-winter-soil-emissions
     “A NASA-funded study suggests winter carbon emissions in the Arctic may be adding more carbon into the atmosphere each year than is taken up by Arctic vegetation, marking a stark reversal for a region that has captured and stored carbon for tens of thousands of years … This study was supported by NASA’s Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) and conducted in coordination with the Permafrost Carbon Network and more than 50 collaborating institutions.”
373. Svante Arrhenius (1896) – On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature on the Ground – Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science 22:169-194 doi:10.1080/14786449608620846 – http://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf
     “To get an increase of 3.4 ºC it will be necessary to alter the quantity of carbonic acid till it reaches a value nearly midway between 2 and 2.5 [its present mean] … A simple calculation shows that the temperature on the Arctic regions would rise about 8º to 9 ºC if the carbonic acid increased to 2,5 or 3 times its present value.”
374. Gregory Flato and Jochem Marotzke (2013) – Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models – En: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press – https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf – 17 autores
     “The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity ranges from 2.1°C to 4.7°C and is very similar to the assessment in the AR4.”
375. Reto Knutti and Gabriele C. Hegerl (2008) – The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth’s temperature to radiation changes – Nature Geoscience 1:735-743 doi:10.1038/ngeo337 – 26/10/2008 – Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh – http://www.iac.ethz.ch/people/knuttir/papers/knutti08natgeo.pdf
     “Various observations favour a climate sensitivity value of about 3 °C, with a likely range of about 2–4.5 °C. However, the physics of the response and uncertainties in forcing lead to fundamental difficulties in ruling out higher values.”
376. Michael E. Mann (2014) – Earth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036 – Scientific American, 18/03/2014 – Penn State Earth System Science Center – http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036/
     “And as it turns out, the climate models the IPCC actually used in its Fifth Assessment Report imply an even higher value of 3.2 degrees C. The IPCC’s lower bound for ECS, in other words, probably does not have much significance for future world climate—and neither does the faux pause.»
377. Climate updates: What have we learnt since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report? – The Royal Society – 27/11/2017 – https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/Publications/2017/27-11-2017-Climate-change-updates-report.pdf
     “This means that climate sensitivity derived from historical data (which typically fails to fully represent regional areas that may be warmer or cooler than the average) gives an underestimate of the value for high carbon dioxide atmospheres.”
378. Michael Hopkin (2007) – Climate sensitivity ‘inherently unpredictable’ – Nature News, 25/10/2007 – doi:10.1038/news.2007.198 – https://www.nature.com/news/2007/071025/full/news.2007.198.html
     “The researchers now argue that this is because the uncertainty simply cannot be reduced …»We need an explicit commitment to do what it takes to avoid 2 °C of warming,» Allen argues. «You don’t need to know the climate sensitivity to avoid dangerous climate change,» he adds.”
379. Eelco J. Rohling et al (2018) – Comparing climate sensitivity, past and present – Annual Review of Marine Science 10:261-288 doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063242 – 22/09/2017 – Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University + Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton
     “Here, we visualize these impacts with idealized representations that graphically illustrate the nature of time-dependent actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity estimates, evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, agreements, and differences of the two approaches.»
380. Tim Rohrschneider, Bjorn Stevens and Thorsten Mauritsen (2019) – On simple representations of the climate response to external radiative forcing – Climate Dynamics 53:3131–3145 doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04686-4 – Max Planck Institute for Meteorology; Department of MeteorologyStockholm University – https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00382-019-04686-4.pdf
     “State-dependent feedback due to feedback temperature dependence introduces a nonlinearity which makes the timescale on which the climate system adjusts forcing-dependent. The finding that the timescales on which the climate system adjusts depend on the strength of the forcing has not been addressed to date.”
381. Rodrigo Caballero and Matthew Huber (2013) – State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 110:14162-14167 doi:10.1073/pnas.1618082114 – 27/08/2013 – Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University; Purdue Climate Change Research Center and Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/35/14162.full.pdf
     “We find that (i) changes in boundary conditions representative of slow “Earth system” feedbacks play an important role in maintaining elevated early Paleogene temperatures, (ii) radiative forcing by carbon dioxide deviates significantly from pure logarithmic behavior at concentrations relevant for simulation of the early Paleogene, and (iii) fast or “Charney” climate sensitivity in this model increases sharply as the climate warms … The implications of strongly state-dependent fast sensitivity reach far beyond the early Paleogene … proxies and models are both consistent with significant increases in fast sensitivity with increasing temperature.»
382. Femke J. M. M. Nijsse et al (2019) – Decadal global temperature variability increases strongly with climate sensitivity – Nature Climate Change 9:598–601 doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0527-4 – 22/07/2019 – College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Science, University of Exeter – 4 autores
     “High-sensitivity climates, as well as having a higher chance of rapid decadal warming, are also more likely to have had historical ‘hiatus’ periods than lower-sensitivity climates … the slowdown in global warming during the period 2002–2012 was more likely in a high-ECS world … achieving a better consensus on the risk that we live in a high-ECS climate is therefore of critical importance to both the climate mitigation challenge and also to inform efforts to build resilience to climate variability.”
383. Summer Praetorius et al (2018) – Global and Arctic climate sensitivity enhanced by changes in North Pacific heat flux – Nature Communications 9:3124 doi:10.1038/s41467-018-05337-8 – 07/08/2018 – United States Geological Survey + Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05337-8.pdf – 4 autores
     “We modify ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes in the North Pacific and North Atlantic in a climate model to determine the sensitivity of Arctic temperatures to zonal heterogeneities in northern hemisphere SST patterns … Our results imply that global climate sensitivity may be dependent on patterns of ocean heat flux in the northern hemisphere.»
384. Jiang Zhu, Christopher J. Poulsen and Jessica E. Tierney (2019) – Simulation of Eocene extreme warmth and high climate sensitivity through cloud feedbacks – Science Advances 5:eaax1874 doi:10.1126/sciadv.aax1874 – 18/09/2019 – Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan; Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona – https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaax1874/tab-pdf
     “The Eocene is arguably the most critical target for benchmarking climate models that are tuned to present-day CO2 levels … The cloud processes responsible for the increased climate sensitivity in our Eocene simulations are also active under modern conditions … the ECS increases by 33% to 4.2°C from 5.6°C … these results suggest a higher climate sensitivity in a warmer future than typically estimated by the IPCC.”
385. Mark Pagani et al (2010) – High Earth-system climate sensitivity determined from Pliocene carbon dioxide concentrations – Nature Geoscience 3:27-30 doi:10.1038/ngeo724 – Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University
     “Earth-system climate sensitivity, by contrast, additionally includes the effects of long-term feedbacks such as changes in continental ice-sheet extent, terrestrial ecosystems and the production of greenhouse gases other than CO2 … We conclude that the Earth-system climate sensitivity has been significantly higher over the past five million years than estimated from fast feedbacks alone.”
386. Antara Banerjee et al (2019) – Stratospheric water vapor: an important climate feedback – Climate Dynamics 53:1697–1710 doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04721-4 – 01/04/2019 – Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University + Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder + National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory/Chemical Sciences Division – 6 autores
     “The role of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) changes, in response to increasing CO2, as a feedback component of quantitative significance for climate sensitivity has remained controversial … We conclude that the SWV feedback is important, being on the same order of magnitude as the global mean surface albedo and cloud feedbacks in the multi-model mean.”
387. Daniel Swain – Scientists explain what New York Magazine article on “The Uninhabitable Earth” gets wrong – Climate Feedback, 15/07/2019 – Researcher, UCLA, and Research Fellow, National Center for Atmospheric Research
     “It is quantitatively true—and often under-appreciated—that the likelihood of a “worse than expected” climate future is actually higher than a “better than expected” one. That is: the distribution of climate outcomes is not symmetrical, and as others have previously pointed out, “uncertainty is not our friend“.”
388. Margaret S. Torn and John Harte (2006) – Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming – Geophysical Research Letters 33 L10703 doi:10.1029/2005GL025540 – 26/05/2006 – Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley – http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~aaron/docs/Torn.Harte06_vostok_GRL.pdf
     “A symmetrical uncertainty in any component of feedback, whether positive or negative, produces an asymmetrical distribution of expected temperatures skewed toward higher temperature. For both reasons, the omission of key positive feedbacks and asymmetrical uncertainty from feedbacks, it is likely that the future will be hotter than we think.”
389. Gerard H. Roe and Marcia B. Baker (2007) – Why Is Climate Sensitivity So Unpredictable? – Science 318:629-632 doi:10.1126/science.1144735 – Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington – http://climatechange.pbworks.com/f/Why+is+climate+sensitivity+so+unpredictable+G.H.Roe+et+al+Science+2007.H.Roe+et+al+Science+2007.pdf
     “The reason for the long tail of typical climate sensitivity distributions is immediately … Uncertainties in climate processes, and hence feedbacks, have a very asymmetric projection onto the climate sensitivity … The basic shape of hT (ΔT) is not an artifact of the analyses or choice of model parameters. It is an inevitable consequence of a system in which the net feedbacks are substantially positive.”
390. Amos Tversky and Derek J. Koehler (1994) – Support theory: a nonextensional representation of subjective probability – Psychological Review 101:547-567 doi:10.1037/0033-295x.101.4.547 – Department of Psychology, Stanford University – https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f047/fca2c9941dab70b71cfccc9e8d532bc5ffc5.pdf
     “Presents a new theory of subjective probability according to which different descriptions of the same event can give rise to different judgments. The experimental evidence confirms the major predictions of the theory … The theory provides a unified treatment of a wide range of empirical findings. It is extended to ordinal judgments and to the assessment of upper and lower probabilities.”
391. Salvador Pueyo (2012) – Solution to the paradox of climate sensitivity – Climatic Change 113:163–179 doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0328-x – Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3)
     “The fat tail obtained when using a uniform prior is generally viewed as a major problem, and has often been controled by setting an out-of-hand bound on the prior. The results in this paper indicate that, although the correct non-informative prior also gives rise to a fat tail, it is thinner than for the uniform prior without need of setting a bound.”
392. Eric Hand (2017) – Fossil leaves suggest global warming will be harder to fight than scientists thought – Science doi:10.1126/science.aal0567 – https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/fossil-leaves-suggest-global-warming-will-be-harder-fight-scientists-thought
     “By revealing lower CO2 levels during ancient warmings, he says, the gas exchange technique suggests a climate sensitivity closer to 4°C, not 3°C. It may take several generations for that rise to kick in, but history suggests that it is built into the climate system. “I do find it worrying,” McElwain says. “Within 50–100 years the Earth’s surface temperature could rise much higher than we currently anticipate.” Still, the technique is new, and its message is far from definitive.”
393. Ivy Tan, Trude Storelvmo and Mark D. Zelinka (2016) – Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity – Science 352:224-227 doi:10.1126/science.aad5300 – Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University; Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory – https://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6282/224.full.pdf
     “It has recently been shown that SLFs [susupercooled liquid fraction] are severely underestimated on a global scale in amultitude of global climate models … Here we show that the ECS can be up to 1.3°C higher in simulations where mixed-phase clouds consisting of ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets are constrained by global satellite observations.”
394. Paul Voosen (2019) – New climate models forecast a warming surge – Science 364:222-223 doi:10.1126/science.364.6437.222
     “A host of global climate models developed for the United Nations’s next major assessment of global warming, due in 2021, are now showing a puzzling but undeniable trend: They are running hotter than they have in the past … in at least eight of the next-generation models, produced by leading centers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and France, that «equilibrium climate sensitivity» has come in at 5°C or warmer.”
395. Stephen Belcher, Olivier Boucher and Rowan Sutton – Why results from the next generation of climate models matter – Carbon Brief, 21/03/2019 – Chief scientist, UK Met Office; Head of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) Climate Modelling Centre; Director of climate research, UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Reading – https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-results-from-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-matter
     “These new climate models make maximum use of advances in technology – such as increased supercomputing power – and feature many improvements in their treatment of Earth’s climate system … Early results suggest ECS values from some of the new CMIP6 climate models are higher than previous estimates, with early numbers being reported between 2.8C (pdf) and 5.8C. This compares with the previous coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), which reported values between 2.1C to 4.7C.”
396. Reto Knutti and Gabriele C. Hegerl (2008) – The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth’s temperature to radiation changes – Nature Geoscience 1:735-743 doi:10.1038/ngeo337 – Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh – http://www.iac.ethz.ch/people/knuttir/papers/knutti08natgeo.pdf
     “The quest to determine climate sensitivity has now been going on for decades, with disturbingly little progress in narrowing the large uncertainty range. However, in the process, fascinating new insights into the climate system and into policy aspects regarding mitigation have been gained. The well-constrained lower limit of climate sensitivity and the transient rate of warming already provide useful information for policy makers. But the upper limit of climate sensitivity will be more difficult to quantify.”
397. Reto Knutti, Maria A. A. Rugenstein & Gabriele C. Hegerl (2017) – Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity – Nature Geoscience 10:727–736 doi:10.1038/ngeo3017 – Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich + National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh
     “Newer metrics relating global warming directly to the total emitted CO2 show that in order to keep warming to within 2 °C, future CO2 emissions have to remain strongly limited, irrespective of climate sensitivity being at the high or low end.”
398. Zeke Hausfather – CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained – Carbon Brief, 02/12/2019 – https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained
     “Knutti and colleagues suggest that the uncertainty in climate sensitivity should not be seen as a roadblock for action today. Dessler tells Carbon Brief: “Unless climate sensitivity falls outside the IPCC’s range, I don’t see that refinements to the range have a huge impact on what we should be doing from a policy perspecive. We should be trying to reduce emissions as fast as we can – but slow enough not to be too disruptive to the economy.”.”
399. Heleen de Coninck and Aromar Revi (2018) – Global Warming of 1.5 °C. Chapter 4 – Strengthening and implementing the global response – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_chapter4.pdf“Limiting warming to 1.5°C would require transformative systemic change, integrated with sustainable development. Such change would require the upscaling and acceleration of the implementation of far-reaching, multi-level and cross-sectoral climate mitigation and addressing barriers. Such systemic change would need to be linked to complementary adaptation actions, including transformational adaptation, especially for pathways that temporarily overshoot 1.5°C ”
400. Yangyang Xu, Veerabhadran Ramanathan and David G. Victor (2018) – Global warming will happen faster than we think – Nature 564:30-32 doi:10.1038/d41586-018-07586-5 – Assistant Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University; Professor of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, University of California, San Diego; Scripps Institution of Oceanography + Professor of International Relations, University of California, San Diego; Cross-Brookings Initiative on Energy and Climate, Brookings Institution – https://www.nature.com/magazine-assets/d41586-018-07586-5/d41586-018-07586-5.pdf
     “Three lines of evidence suggest that global warming will be faster than projected in the recent IPCC special report. First, greenhouse-gas emissions are still rising … Second, governments are cleaning up air pollution faster than the IPCC and most climate modellers have assumed … Third, there are signs that the planet might be entering a natural warm phase that could last for a couple of decades. … These three forces reinforce each other. ”
401. M. Smith et al (2018) – Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C – Geophysical Research Letters 45:11,895-11,903 doi:10.1029/2018GL079362 – Met Office Hadley Centre – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2018GL079362 – 33 autores
     “Here we develop a new capability to predict the probability that global temperature will exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels in the coming 5 years. For the period 2017 to 2021 we predict a 38% and 10% chance, respectively, of monthly or yearly temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C, with virtually no chance of the 5‐year mean being above the threshold. Our forecasts will be updated annually to provide policy makers with advanced warning of the evolving probability and duration of future warming events.»
402. Gerald A. Meehl, Aixue Hu & Haiyan Teng (2016) – Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation – Nature Communications 7:11718 doi:10.1038/ncomms11718 – National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder – https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms11718.pdf
     “Here we show that … the year three to seven average prediction (2015–2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013–2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.”
403. Byron A. Steinman, Michael E. Mann and Sonya K. Miller (2015) – Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures – Science 347:988-991 doi:10.1126/science.1257856 – Large Lakes Observatory and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Minnesota Duluth; Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University – http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/articles/articles/SteinmanEtAlScience15.pdf
     “Given the pattern of past historical variation, this trend will likely reverse with internal variability, instead adding to anthropogenic warming in the coming decades.”
404. Benjamin J. Henley and Andrew D. King (2017) – Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation – Geophysical Research Letters 44:4256-4262 doi:10.1002/2017GL073480 – School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Melbourne
     «Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic eruptions, temperature projections are centered on a breaching of the 1.5°C target, relative to 1850–1900, before 2029 … A transition to the positive phase of the IPO would lead to a projected exceedance of the target centered around 2026. If the Pacific Ocean remains in its negative decadal phase, the target will be reached around 5 years later, in 2031.”
405. Bjørn H. Samset et al (2019) – Emerging Asian aerosol patterns – Nature Geoscience 12:582–584 doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0424-5 – CICERO Center for International Climate Research – 5 autores
     “The climate of South and East Asia is affected by anthropogenic aerosols, but the magnitude of the aerosol imprint is not well known. As regional emissions are rapidly changing, potential related climate risks must be quantified … south and east Asian aerosol emissions have been changing rapidly since about 2010, as a result of stringent air-quality measures driven by concerns for public health.”
406. Daniel Rosenfeld et al (2019) – Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low-level clouds – Science 363:eaav0566 doi:10.1126/science.aav0566 – Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem + School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University – https://bit.ly/2MHgH3a – 6 autores
     “Quantifying the aerosol cloud–mediated radiative effects has been a major challenge and has driven the uncertainty in climate predictions. It has been difficult to measure cloud-active aerosols from satellites and to isolate their effects on clouds from meteorological data,”
407. Meinrat O. Andreae Chris D. Jones and Peter M. Cox (2005) – Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future – Nature 435:1187-1190 doi:10.1038/nature03671 – Max Planck Institute for Chemistry; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Winfrith,, UK – http://irina.eas.gatech.edu/EAS_spring2006/Andreae2005.pdf
     “We find that a large uncertainty range of temperature increase is predicted for 2100, and that even by 2050, the model runs with strong historical aerosol cooling predict a temperature rise from 1850 of as much as 2.2 ºC … Analyses of the probability distribution of climate sensitivities that can be deduced from climate observations suggest that there is a significant probability that the true climate sensitivity is in excess of 4 K (refs 5, 6), and maybe as high as 10 K. Recent analyses of the palaeoclimatic record also suggest fairly high climate sensitivity [refs].”
408. Mohammad Reza Najafi, Francis W. Zwiers and Nathan P. Gillett (2015) – Attribution of Arctic temperature change to greenhouse-gas and aerosol influences – Nature Climate Change 5:246–249 doi:10.1038/nclimate2524 – Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada – https://bit.ly/2xKTq7Y
     “Our results demonstrate that aerosol-induced cooling has offset between 1.3 and 2.2 ◦C of greenhouse-gas-induced warming over the past century, and thus that without it the large observed Arctic warming of 1.2 ◦C would have been even larger. This offset seems to have been relatively more important in the Arctic than in the global mean.”
409. David Archer (2005) – Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time – Journal of Geophysical Research 110 C09S05 doi:10.1029/2004JC002625 – Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago – http://melts.uchicago.edu/~archer/reprints/archer.2005.fate_co2.pdf
     “The mean lifetime of anthropogenic CO2 is dominated by the long tail, resulting in a range of 30-35 kyr. The long lifetime of fossil fuel carbon release implies that the anthropogenic climate perturbation may have time to interact with ice sheets, methane clathrate deposits, and glacial/interglacial climate dynamics.”
410. Yangyang Xu, Veerabhadran Ramanathan and David G. Victor (2018) – Íbid.:
     “These three forces reinforce each other. We estimate that rising greenhouse-gas emissions, along with declines in air pollution, bring forward the estimated date of 1.5 °C of warming to around 2030, with the 2 °C boundary reached by 2045. These could happen sooner with quicker shedding of air pollutants. Adding in natural decadal fluctuations raises the odds of blasting through 1.5 °C by 2025 to at least 10% (ref. 9). By comparison, the IPCC assigned probabilities of 17% and 83% for crossing the 1.5 °C mark by 2030 and 2052, respectively.”
411. Benjamin J. Henley and Andrew D. King (2017) – Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation – Geophysical Research Letters 44:4256-4262 doi:10.1002/2017GL073480 – School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Melbourne
     «Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic eruptions, temperature projections are centered on a breaching of the 1.5°C target, relative to 1850–1900, before 2029 … A transition to the positive phase of the IPO would lead to a projected exceedance of the target centered around 2026. If the Pacific Ocean remains in its negative decadal phase, the target will be reached around 5 years later, in 2031.”
412. Jessica E. Tierney et al (2019) – Pliocene warmth consistent with greenhouse gas forcing – Geophysical Research Letters doi:10.1029/2019GL083802 – The University of Arizona Department of Geosciences – 5 autores
     “With CO2 concentrations similar to today (410 ppm), the Pliocene Epoch offers insights into climate changes under a moderately warmer world … Pliocene warmth does not require drastic changes in the climate system ‐ rather, it supports the expectation that the Walker circulation will weaken in the future under higher CO2.”
413. M. Haywood et al (2013) – Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project – Climate of the Past 9:191–209 doi:10.5194/cp-9-191-2013 – School of Earth and Environment, Earth and Environment Building, University of Leeds – https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20140016547.pdf – 22 autores
     “For the Experiment 1 ensemble, a range of global annual mean SAT anomalies from 1.97 to 2.80 C is simulated, while in Experiment 2, the ensemble range is between 1.84 and 3.60 C … No direct relationship between the magnitude of Pliocene SAT anomaly and Climate Sensitivity … is seen … demonstrating the importance of long-term climate drivers in mid-Pliocene warming. ”
414. Kenneth G. Miller et al (2012) – High tide of the warm Pliocene: Implications of global sea level for Antarctic deglaciation – Geology 40:407–410, doi:10.1130/G32869.1 – Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University – https://bit.ly/2YhfKTd – 10 autores
     “We obtained global sea-level (eustatic) estimates with a peak of ∼22 m higher than present for the Pliocene interval 2.7–2 Ma … Statistical analysis indicates that it is likely (68% confidence interval) that peak sea level was 22 ± 5 m higher than modern, and extremely likely (95%) that it was 22 ± 10 m higher than modern.”
415. Timothy M. Lenton, Johan Rockström, Owen Gaffney, Stefan Rahmstorf, Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2019) – Climate tipping points – too risky to bet against – Nature 575:592-595 doi:10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0 – Director of the Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter; Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research + Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; Professor of physics of the oceans, University of Potsdam + Head of Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Professor of biological oceanography, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen; Emeritus professor of climate and Earth System Science, Australian National University; founding director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research + distinguished visiting professor, Tsinghua University – https://www.nature.com/magazine-assets/d41586-019-03595-0/d41586-019-03595-0.pdf
     “Atmospheric CO2 is already at levels last seen around four million years ago, in the Pliocene epoch. It is rapidly heading towards levels last seen some 50 million years ago — in the Eocene — when temperatures were up to 14 °C higher than they were in pre-industrial times.”
416. D. Burke et al (2018) – Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1809600115 – Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin–Madison – 6 autores
     “RCP4.5 is roughly equivalent to stabilizing at Pliocene-like climates, while unmitigated emission trajectories, such as RCP8.5, are similar to reversing millions of years of long-term cooling on the scale of a few human generations. Both the emergence of geologically novel climates and the rapid reversion to Eocene-like climates may be outside the range of evolutionary adaptive capacity … By 2040 CE, they are replaced by the Mid-Pliocene, which becomes the most common source of best analogs in the three model ensemble and remains the best climate analog thereafter (Fig. 2) … Our study suggests that climates like those of the Pliocene will prevail as soon as 2030 CE and persist under climate stabilization scenarios. Unmitigated scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions produce climates like those of the Eocene.”
417. David Spratt and Ian Dunlop (2018) – Existential Climate-Related Security Risk: A scenario approach – Climate Code Red, 01/05/2019 – Breakthrough – National Centre for Climate Restoration – https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/148cb0_90dc2a2637f348edae45943a88da04d4.pdf
     “A 2050 Scenario … Thirty-five percent of the global land area, and 55 percent of the global population, are subject to more than 20 days a year of lethal heat conditions, beyond the threshold of human survivability.”
418. Steven C. Sherwood and Matthew Huber (2010) – An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 107:9552–9555 doi:10.1073/pnas.0913352107 – Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales; Purdue Climate Change Research Center, Purdue University
     “We show that even modest global warming could therefore expose large fractions of the population to unprecedented heat stress, and that with severe warming this would become intolerable… We conclude that a global-mean warming of roughly 7 °C would create small zones where metabolic heat dissipation would for the first time become impossible, calling into question their suitability for human habitation. A warming of 11–12 °C would expand these zones to encompass most of today’s human population.”
419. Camilo Mora et al (2017) – Global risk of deadly heat – Nature Climate Change 7:501–506 doi:10.1038/nclimate3322 – Department of Geography, University of Hawai’i at Manoa – 18 autores
     “Based on the climatic conditions of those lethal heat events, we identified a global threshold beyond which daily mean surface air temperature and relative humidity become deadly … Around 30% of the world’s population is currently exposed to climatic conditions exceeding this deadly threshold for at least 20 days a year. By 2100, this percentage is projected to increase to ~48% under a scenario with drastic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and ~74% under a scenario of growing emissions.”
420. M. Smith et al (2018) – Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C – Geophysical Research Letters 45:11,895-11,903 doi:10.1029/2018GL079362 – Met Office Hadley Centre – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2018GL079362 – 33 autores
     “Here we develop a new capability to predict the probability that global temperature will exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels in the coming 5 years. For the period 2017 to 2021 we predict a 38% and 10% chance, respectively, of monthly or yearly temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C, with virtually no chance of the 5‐year mean being above the threshold. Our forecasts will be updated annually.»
421. Zeke Hausfather et al (2019) – Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections – Geophysical Research Letters doi:10.1029/2019GL085378 – Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley – 4 autores
     “Retrospectively comparing future model projections to observations provides a robust and independent test of model skill … We find that climate models published over the past five decades were skillful in predicting subsequent GMST changes, with most models examined showing warming consistent with observations, particularly when mismatches between model‐projected and observationally‐estimated forcings were taken into account.”
422. Yangyang Xu, Veerabhadran Ramanathan and David G. Victor (2018) – Íbid.:
     “But the latest IPCC special report underplays another alarming fact: global warming is accelerating.”
423. James Hansen (2019) – Saving Earth – Columbia University, 27/06/2019 – http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2019/20190627_SavingEarth.pdf
     “The rate 0.38°C/decade based on the past two La Ninas is an exaggeration, because the last La Niña was weak. Based on the growth rate of the greenhouse climate forcing (Figure 2), the underlying global warming rate is now probably about a third higher than the average for the past half century, thus perhaps close to 0.25°C/decade.”
424. Michael E. Mann (2014) – Earth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036 – Scientific American, 18/03/2014 – Penn State Earth System Science Center – http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036/
     “To my wonder, I found that for an ECS of three degrees C, our planet would cross the dangerous warming threshold of two degrees C in 2036, only 22 years from now. When I considered the lower ECS value of 2.5 degrees C, the world would cross the threshold in 2046, just 10 years later [see graph on pages 78 and 79]. So even if we accept a lower ECS value, it hardly signals the end of global warming or even a pause.”
425. Hoegh-Guldberg et al (2019) – The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C – Science 365:eaaw6974 doi:10.1126/science.aaw6974 – Global Change Institute + School of Biological Sciences,, University of Queensland – 21 autores
     “With an accelerating amount of peer-reviewed scientific literature since the IPCC Special Report Global Warming of 1.5°C, it is very clear that there is an even more compelling case for deepening commitment and actions for stabilizing GMST at 1.5°C above the pre-industrial period.”
426. Mario Molina, Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Durwood J. Zaelke (2018) – Climate report understates threat – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 09/10/2018 – University of California, San Diego + National Autonomous University, Mexico + Nobel Prize in Chemistry; Distinguished professor of climate sciences, University of California, San Diego + TANG laureate; Founder and President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (IGSD) in Washington and Paris – https://thebulletin.org/2018/10/climate-report-understates-threat/
     “But the report, dire as it is, misses a key point: Self-reinforcing feedbacks and tipping points—the wildcards of the climate system—could cause the climate to destabilize even further. The report also fails to discuss the five percent risk that even existing levels of climate pollution, if continued unchecked, could lead to runaway warming—the so-called “fat tail” risk … To put it bluntly, there is a significant risk of self-reinforcing climate feedback loops pushing the planet into chaos beyond human control.”
427. Mike Hulme (2020) – Is it too late (to stop dangerous climate change)? An editorial – WIREs Climate Change doi:10.1002/wcc.619 – Department of Geography, University of Cambridge – https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.619
     “I identify four broad approaches to how these commissioned authors answer the question. The first position is the pragmatic realism and guarded optimism… These authors want to offer some hope that change will happen fast enough, but in the end are pessimistic that the necessary political alignments are achievable. A second line of reasoning from some authors is to foreground the cultural resources available to different groups of people which can be deployed to resist the drivers and impacts of climate change … A third approach to answering the question can be recognized in the … two essays [that]come at the question from a psychological angle and both develop positions that seek to offer hope. … Finally, a fourth approach … ” is to radically redefine the parameters of what climate change signifies, to refuse to be limited by the global numbers of carbon budgets or degrees Celsius that drive the discourse of “12 more years” and “it’s too late.”.
428. Jonathan Hiskes – Burning Embers design contest seeks new ways to illustrate climate change – Grist, 09/06/2009 – http://www.grist.org/article/2009-06-09-climate-design-contest/
     “Burning Embers was inspired by a problem familiar to anyone who’s spent time with scientific reports: graphics by scientists can be achingly dull or confusing. The project takes its name from the “burning embers” diagrams created for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and criticized alternately for being too unclear or too unnerving.”
429. Joel B. Smith et al (2009) – Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘reasons for concern’ – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 106:4133-4137 doi:10.1073/pnas.0812355106 – Stratus Consulting, Inc. – http://www.pnas.org/content/106/11/4133.full.pdf+html – 15 authors
     “Based on our expert judgment about new findings … compared with results reported in the TAR [IPCC Third Assessment Report], smaller increases in GMT [Global Mean Temperature] are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 ‘‘reasons for concern.’’
430. Myles Allen et al (2018) – Global Warming of 1.5 °C. Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf – 62 autores“There are multiple lines of evidence that since the AR5 the assessed levels of risk increased for four of the five Reasons for Concern (RFCs) for global warming to 2°C (high confidence).”
431. Jacob Schewe et al (2019) – State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes – Nature Communications 10:1005 doi:10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08745-6.pdf – 50 autores“We find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins … It … means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
432. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Daniela Jacob, Michael Taylor (2018) – Global Warming of 1.5 °C. Chapter 3 – Impacts of 1.5ºC global warming on natural and human systems – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 06/10/2018 – – http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_chapter3.pdf – 88 autores
     “Global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) is projected to be around 0.1 m (0.04 – 0.16 m) less by the end of the 21st century in a 1.5°C warmer world compared to a 2°C warmer world (medium confidence) … A smaller sea level rise could mean that up to 10.4 million fewer people (based on the 2010 global population and assuming no adaptation) would be exposed to the impacts of sea level rise globally in 2100 at 1.5°C compared to at 2°C.
433. Martin Vermeer and Stefan Rahmstorf (2009) – Global sea level linked to global temperature – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 106:21527-21532 doi:10.1073/pnas.0907765106 – Department of Surveying, Helsinki University of Technology; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
     “We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century … Our analysis further suggests that emissions reductions need to come early in this century to be effective.
434. John S. Hoffman, Dale Keyes and James G. Titus (1983) – Projecting Future Sea Level Rise: Methodology, Estimates to the Year 2100, and Research Needs – Environmental Protection Agency – The Strategic Studies Staff, Office of Policy Analysis – https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi/20011F9U.PDF?Dockey=20011F9U.PDF
     “When linked together the various assumptions allowed the estimation of high and low paths of future sea level rise. Based on this work, the following findings can be stated … A global rise of between 144 cm (4.8 feet) and 217 cm (7 feet) by 2100 is most likely. A global rise as low as 56 cm (1.9 feet) or as high as 345 cm (11 feet) by 2100 cannot be ruled out. Along most of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States, the rise will be 18 to 24 cm (0.6 to 0.8 feet) more than the global average.
435. Síntesi, Grenlàndia
436. Eric Rignot (2014) – Global warming: it’s a point of no return in West Antarctica. What happens next? – The Guardian, 17/05/2014 – NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory – http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/17/climate-change-antarctica-glaciers-melting-global-warming-nasa
     “There is also a bigger picture than West Antarctica. The Amundsen sea sector is not the only vulnerable part of the continent. East Antarctica includes marine-based sectors that hold more ice. One of them, Totten glacier, holds the equivalent of seven meters of global sea level.”
437. Michael Mann – The new IPCC climate change report makes deniers overheat – Live Science, 26/09/2013 – Penn State University Earth System Science Center – http://www.livescience.com/39957-climate-change-deniers-must-stop-distorting-the-evidence.html
     “However, there is credible peer-reviewed scientific work, based on so-called «semi-empirical» approaches that predict nearly twice that amount – that is, nearly 6ft (2m) of global sea-level rise this century. These latter approaches are given short thrift in the new IPCC report; instead, the autores of the relevant chapter favor dynamical modeling approaches that have their own potential shortcomings.
438. Jonathan L. Bamber et al (2019) – Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 116:11195-11200 doi:10.1073/pnas.1817205116 – School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/116/23/11195.full.pdf – 5 autores
     “Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study … Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m … Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%.”
439. James Hansen et al (2015) – Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous – Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 15:20059–20179 doi:10.5194/acpd-15-20059-2015 – Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute – http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd-15-20059-2015.pdf – 17 autores
     “There is evidence of ice melt, sea level rise to +5–9 m, and extreme storms in the prior interglacial period that was less than 1 °C warmer than today … We argue that ice sheets in contact with the ocean are vulnerable to non-linear disintegration in response to ocean warming, and we posit that ice sheet mass loss can be approximated by a doubling time up to sea level rise of at least several meters. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield sea level rise of several meters in 50, 100 or 200 years … We conclude that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level, which would spur more ice shelf melt, is highly dangerous.”
440. James Hansen et al (1981) – Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide – Science 213:957-966 doi:10.1126/science.213.4511.957 – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies – 7 autores
     “This temperature increase is consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide … Potential effects on climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North America and central Asia as part if a shifting of climatic zones.”
441. James Hansen (1988) – The Greenhouse Effect: Impacts on Current Global Temperature and Regional Heat Waves – United States Senate, 23/06/1988 – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies + Columbia University Earth Institute
     “Altogether the evidence that the earth is warming by an amount that is too large to be a chance fluctuation and the similarity of the warming to that expected from the greenhouse effect represents a very strong case. In my opinion, that the greenhouse effect has been detected, and it is changing our climate now.”
442. James Hansen (2019) – Fire on Planet Earth – Columbia University, 11/12/2019 – http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2019/20191211_Fire.pdf
     “Empirical data for ongoing climate change and its impact on the ocean and ice sheets provides our best check on the physics. The best fit to the observed mass changes of Greenland and Antarctic ice (Fig. 19) suggests a doubling time of about 10 years, but the record is too short for meaningful quantitative assessment … we chose doubling times of 10 and 20 years. Meter-scale sea level rise is reached in about 50 and 100 years in these two cases … These doubling times lead to meter-scale sea level rise in 50-100 years, and several meters after one or two more doublings.”
443. Stuart Staniford – Hansen Still Argues 5m 21st C Sea Level Rise Possible – Early Warning, 03/01/2012 – http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/01/hansen-still-argues-5m-21st-c-sea-level.html
     “This is interesting – here is the latest paper from James Hansen and coauthor Miki Sato Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change. If you are up to reading climate science papers it’s highly recommended.”
444. James Hansen (2007) – Scientific reticence and sea level rise – Environmental Research Letters 2:024002 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002 – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies + Columbia University Earth Institute – http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen.pdf
     “Under BAU forcing in the 21st century, the sea level rise surely will be dominated by a third term: (3) ice sheet disintegration … As a quantitative example, let us say that the ice sheet contribution is 1 cm for the decade 2005–15 and that it doubles each decade until the West Antarctic ice sheet is largely depleted. That time constant yields a sea level rise of the order of 5 m this century. Of course I cannot prove that my choice of a ten-year doubling time for nonlinear response is accurate, but I am confident that it provides a far better estimate than a linear response for the ice sheet component of sea level rise under BAU forcing.”
445. M. Gregory et al (2012) – Twentieth-century global-mean sea-level rise: is the whole greater than the sum of the parts? – Journal of Climate 121203145300007 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1 – NCAS-Climate, University of Reading – 19 autores – http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~jonathan/talks/csiro130220.pdf
     “The reconstructions account for the approximate constancy of the rate of GMSLR during the 20th century, which shows small or no acceleration, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semi-empirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of our closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the 20th century.”
446. Michael Oppenheimer, Naomi Oreskes, Dale Jamieson, Keynyn Brysse, Jessica O’Reilly, Matthew Shindell and Milena Wazeck (2019) – Discerning Experts: The Practices of Scientific Assessment for Environmental Policy – University of Chicago Press – ISBN-13: 978-0226602011 – 304 Págs.
     “While still drafting their AR5 chapter, several of the chapter autores published their reasoning in a peer-reviewed journal article. The resulting IPCC chapter then drew on this article to make the argument against projecting sea level rise with semi-empirical models.” (p. 206-207)
447. Robert M. DeConto & David Pollard (2016) – Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise – Nature 531:591–597 doi:10.1038/nature17145 – Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts; Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University –
     “Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated. In this case atmospheric warming will soon become the dominant driver of ice loss, but prolonged ocean warming will delay its recovery for thousands of years.”
448. Eric Rignot et al (2014) – Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica from 1992 to 2011 – Geophysical Research Letters doi:10.1002/2014GL060140 – University of California Irvine, Department of Earth System Science – 5 autores
     “These rapid retreats proceed along regions of retrograde bed elevation mapped at a high spatial resolution using a mass conservation technique (MC) that removes residual ambiguities from prior mappings. Upstream of the 2011 grounding line positions, we find no major bed obstacle that would prevent the glaciers from further retreat and draw down the entire basin … We conclude that this sector of West Antarctica is undergoing a marine ice sheet instability that will significantly contribute to sea level rise in decades to centuries to come.”
449. Ian Joughin, Benjamin E. Smith, Brooke Medley (2014) – Marine Ice Sheet Collapse Potentially Underway for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica – Science 344:735-738 doi:10.1126/science.1249055 – Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Lab, University of Washington
     “Except possibly for the lowest-melt scenario, the simulations indicate early-stage collapse has begun. Less certain is the timescale, with onset of rapid (> 1 mm per year of sea-level rise) collapse for the different simulations within the range of two to nine centuries.»
450. Brice Loose et al (2018) – Evidence of an active volcanic heat source beneath the Pine Island Glacier – Nature Communications 9:2431 doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04421-3 – Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04421-3.pdf
     “Tectonic landforms reveal that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) lies atop a major volcanic rift system … Here we show geochemical evidence of a volcanic heat source upstream of the fast-melting Pine Island Ice Shelf … our finding of a substantial volcanic heat source beneath a major WAIS glacier highlights the … potential role in the future stability of the WAIS.”
451. Andrew Shepherd et al (2019) – Trends in Antarctic Ice Sheet Elevation and Mass – Geophysical Research Letters doi:10.1029/2019GL082182 – Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2019GL082182 – 10 autores
     “While the majority of the ice sheet has remained stable, 24% of West Antarctica is now in a state of dynamical imbalance … we estimate that East and West Antarctica have contributed ‐1.1±0.4 and +5.7±0.8 mm to global sea level between 1992 and 2017.»
452. Claire L. Parkinson (2019) – A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1906556116 – Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory/Code 615, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2019/06/25/1906556116.full.pdf
     “The satellite record reveals that a gradual, decades-long overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extents reversed in 2014, with subsequent rates of decrease in 2014–2017 far exceeding the more widely publicized decay rates experienced in the Arctic. The rapid decreases reduced the Antarctic sea ice extents to their lowest values in the 40-y record, both on a yearly average basis (record low in 2017) and on a monthly basis (record low in February 2017). ”
453. Eric Rignot (2014) – Ibid.
     “There is also a bigger picture than West Antarctica. The Amundsen sea sector is not the only vulnerable part of the continent. East Antarctica includes marine-based sectors that hold more ice. One of them, Totten glacier, holds the equivalent of seven meters of global sea level.”
454. Yara Mohajerani , Isabella Velicogna and Eric Rignot (2018) – Mass Loss of Totten and Moscow University Glaciers, East Antarctica, Using Regionally Optimized GRACE Mascons – Geophysical Research Letters 45 doi:10.1029/2018GL078173 – Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine + Jet Propulsion Laboratory
     “Totten and Moscow University glaciers, in the marine-based sector of East Antarctica, contain enough ice to raise sea level by 5 m … These results provide unequivocal evidence for mass loss in this East Antarctic sector. ”
455. Berger, M.F. Loutre and M. Crucifix (2003) – The Earth’s climate in the next hundred thousand years – Surveys in Geophysics 24:117-138 doi:10.1023/A:1023233702670 – Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître, Université catholique de Louvain
     “Simulations using the 2-D climate model of Louvain-la-Neuve show, however, that the current interglacial will most probably last much longer than any previous ones.”
456. Frank Pattyn et al (2018) – The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming – Nature Climate Change 8:1053–1061 doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8 – Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles – 18 autores
     “On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5–2.0 °C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance–elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.”
457. Alexander Robinson, Reinhard Calov and Andrey Ganopolski (2012) – Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet – Nature Climate Change 2:429–432 doi:10.1038/nclimate1449 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research + Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research + Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), CSIC-UCM
     “The present best estimate of the threshold in global temperature rise leading to complete melting of the ice sheet is 3.1 °C … Here … we show that this criterion systematically overestimates the temperature threshold … We estimate that the warming threshold leading to a monostable, essentially ice-free state is in the range of 0.8–3.2 °C, with a best estimate of 1.6 °C.”
458. Grenland subestimat
459. Jérémie Mouginot et al (2019) – Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018 – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1904242116 – 22/04/2019 – Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine; Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2019/04/16/1904242116.full.pdf – 9 autores
     “W present a 46-years reconstruction of glacier changes across Greenland that reveals a dominance from ice discharge over the entire record and a sixfold increase in mass loss from the 1980s … In the future, we expect the mass changes in the northern part of Greenland to become of greatest importance to sea level rise, because of the large reserve of ice above sea level and the potential for manyfold increase in ice discharge. ”
460. Andy Aschwanden et al (2019) – Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium – Science Advances 5:eaav9396 doi:10.1126/sciadv.aav9396 – University of Alaska Fairbanks – https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/6/eaav9396.full.pdf – 8 autores
     “The Greenland Ice Sheet holds 7.2 m of sea level equivalent … We find that Greenland could contribute 5 to 33 cm to sea level by 2100, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 8 to 45% of total mass los … We project that Greenland will very likely become ice free within a millennium without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.”
461. Michael Oppenheimer and Richard B. Alley (2016) – How high will the seas rise? – Science 354:1375-1377 doi:10.1126/science.aak9460 – Department of Geosciences + Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University; Earth and Environmental Systems Institute and Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University
     “Combining AR5 estimates for thermal expansion, mountain glaciers, the Greenland Ice Sheet, and land water storage with the Antarctic contribution from (1) yields a mean value of 184 cm for the total global sea level rise and an uncertainty range that extends above 2 m. … These and other scientific developments (1, 3, 4) are emerging too fast to be captured by the comprehensive IPCC assessments, which are published every 6 to 7 years.”
462. Zemp et al (2019) – Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016 – Nature 568:382–386 doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1071-0 – Department of Geography, University of Zurich – https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2019/EGU2019-4975.pdf – 14 autores
     “Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets cover an area of approximately 706,000 square kilometres globally … Although statistical uncertainty ranges overlap, our conclusions suggest that glacier mass loss may be larger than previously reported. The present glacier mass loss is equivalent to the sea-level contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet [ref] … Present mass-loss rates indicate that glaciers could almost disappear in some mountain ranges in this century, while heavily glacierized regions will continue to contribute to sea-level rise beyond 2100.”
463. M. Maurer et al (2019) – Acceleration of ice loss across the Himalayas over the past 40 years – Science Advances 5:eaav7266 doi:10.1126/sciadv.aav7266 – Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory + Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University – https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/5/6/eaav7266.full.pdf
     “Himalayan glaciers supply meltwater to densely populated catchments in South Asia … We observe consistent ice loss along the entire 2000-km transect … The similar magnitude and acceleration of ice loss across the Himalayas suggests a regionally coherent climate forcing, consistent with atmospheric warming and associated energy fluxes as the dominant drivers of glacier change.”
464. Regine Hock et al (2019) – GlacierMIP – A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections – Journal of Glaciology 65:453–467 doi:10.1017/jog.2019.22 – Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks + Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University – https://bit.ly/2IROBA7 – 9 autores
     “Global mass loss of all glaciers (outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) by 2100 relative to 2015 averaged over all model runs varies from 18 ± 7% (RCP2.6) to 36 ± 11% (RCP8.5) corresponding to 94 ± 25 and 200 ± 44 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), respectively … Global glacier mass changes per degree global air temperature rise tend to increase with more pronounced warming indicating that mass-balance sensitivities to temperature change are not constant.”
465. S. Nerem et al (2018) – Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 115:2022-2025 doi:10.1073/pnas.1717312115 – 12/02/2018 – Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, Ann and H. J. Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/9/2022.full.pdf – 6 autores
     “Acceleration of sea-level rise over the 20th century has already been inferred from tide-gauge data … The satellite altimeter record of sea-level change … is now approaching 25 y in length, making it possible to begin probing the record for climate-change–driven acceleration of the rate of GMSL change (6). Unlike tide-gauge data, these retrievals sample the open ocean and allow for precise quantitative statements regarding global sea level … we estimate the climate-change–driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y².”
466. Nerille Abran et al (2019) (IPCC) – Íbidem
     “Total GMSL rise for 1902–2015 is 0.16 m (likely range 0.12–0.21 m). The rate of GMSL rise for 2006–2015 of 3.6 mm yr–1 (3.1–4.1 mm yr–1, very likely range), is unprecedented over the last century (high confidence), and about 2.5 times the rate for 1901–1990 of 1.4 mm yr–1 (0.8– 2.0 mm yr–1, very likely range)”
467. Sönke Dangendorf et al (2019) – Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since the 1960s – Nature Climate Change 9: 705–710 doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0531-8 – Research Institute for Water and Environment, University of Siegen + Department of Ocean, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Old Dominion University – 7 autores
     “Here we present an improved hybrid sea-level reconstruction during 1900–2015 that combines previous techniques at time scales where they perform best. We find a persistent acceleration in GMSL since the 1960s and demonstrate that this is largely (~76%) associated with sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific and South Atlantic.”
468. Sonja van Renssen (2019) – Looking past the horizon of 2100 – Nature Climate Change 9:349–351 doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0466-0 – Freelance journalist, Brussels
     “These ice sheets make the difference between a few meters and tens of meters. Scientists … concur that if [tipping points are] reached, its effects would only really start to be felt in the twenty-second century. ‘Little ice-sheet melt this century is no guarantee of success [in limiting climate change],’ warns van de Wal. He adds that Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise has already tripled in the last ten years.”
469. James Hansen et al (2017) – Young People’s Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions – Earth System Dynamics Discussions 8:577–616 doi:10.5194/esd-8-577-2017 – Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute – http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2016-42/esd-2016-42.pdf – 12 autores
     “We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6–9 m higher than today.”
470. Andrew Glikson (2016) – Cenozoic mean greenhouse gases and temperature changes with reference to the Anthropocene – Global Change Biology 22:3843-3858 doi:10.1111/gcb.13342 – Research School of Earth Science, Australian National University
     “The ratio of modern sea level rise rates (SLr) to temperature rise rates (Tr) is lower by one to two orders of magnitude relative to the ratio during warming from glacial to interglacial SLr/Tr values, representing lag effects of sea level rise behind temperature. Restoration of equilibrium relations between current sea levels and mean global temperatures of +0.9 °C or higher, when allowance is made for the masking effects of sulfur aerosols, would lead to Eemian-like (130–115 kyr) sea levels of +6–8 meters above preindustrial, or to Pliocene-like sea levels ~25±12 meters above pre-industrial levels.”
471. Nerille Abran et al (2019) (IPCC) – Íbidem
     “Many low-lying megacities and small islands (including SIDS) are projected to experience historical centennial events at least annually by 2050 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 … Extreme sea levels and coastal hazards will be exacerbated by projected increases in tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation.”
472. Gerard H. Roe and Marcia B. Baker (2007) – Why Is Climate Sensitivity So Unpredictable? – Science 318:629-632 doi:10.1126/science.1144735 – Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington – http://climatechange.pbworks.com/f/Why+is+climate+sensitivity+so+unpredictable+G.H.Roe+et+al+Science+2007.H.Roe+et+al+Science+2007.pdf
     “The reason for the long tail of typical climate sensitivity distributions is immediately evident … Uncertainties in climate processes, and hence feedbacks, have a very asymmetric projection onto the climate sensitivity … It is an inevitable consequence of a system in which the net feedbacks are substantially positive. ”
473. Alexander A. Robel, Hélène Seroussi, and Gerard H. Roe (2009) – Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1904822116 – School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; Earth and Space Sciences Department, University of Washington
     “We show mathematically that the marine ice sheet instability greatly amplifies and skews uncertainty in sea-level projections with worst-case scenarios of rapid sea-level rise being more likely than best-case scenarios of slower sea-level rise … We conclude that internal climate variability alone can be responsible for significant uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise and that large ensembles are a necessary tool for quantifying the upper bounds of this uncertainty.”
474. M.L. Wigley (2018) – The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences – Climatic Change 147:31-45 doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2119-5 – University of Adelaide, Australia + National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderUSA – https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10584-017-2119-5.pdf
     “For sea level rise, tipping points that might lead to inevitable collapse of Antarctic ice sheets or shelves might be avoided for the 2 °C target (for major ice shelves) or for the 1.5 °C target for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Even with the 1.5 °C target, however, sea level will continue to rise at a substantial rate for centuries.”
475. Coastal Risk Screening Tool – Climate Central, 11/01/2019 – https://www.cakex.org/tools/coastal-risk-screening-tool
     “Improved elevation data indicate far greater global threats from sea level rise and coastal flooding than previously thought, and greater benefits from reducing their causes. A report and scientific paper detail research methods and results for 135 nations and globally. Areas shaded red reflect places that are lower than the selected local sea-level and/or coastal flood projection according to the selected elevation dataset. Red areas must also meet hydrologic connectivity criteria. This refined «bathtub approach» makes mapping numerous scenarios fast and efficient and reproduces potential future sea-level threats well. However, when coastal floods are added, the bathtub approach becomes less accurate the higher the flood.”
476. Flooded Future: Global vulnerability to sea level rise worse than previously understood – Climate Central, 29/10/2019 – https://www.climatecentral.org/news/report-flooded-future-global-vulnerability-to-sea-level-rise-worse-than-previously-understood
     “As a result of heat-trapping pollution from human activities, rising sea levels could within three decades push chronic floods higher than land currently home to 300 million people  By 2100, areas now home to 200 million people could fall permanently below the high tide line. The new figures are the result of an improved global elevation dataset produced by Climate Central using machine learning, and revealing that coastal elevations are significantly lower than previously understood across wide areas.”
477. Scott A. Kulp & Benjamin H. Strauss (2019) – New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding – Nature Communications 10:4844 doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z – Climate Central – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z.pdf
     “Here we show … that … under high emissions, CoastalDEM indicates up to 630 M people live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100, and up to 340 M for mid-century, versus roughly 250 M at present. We estimate one billion people now occupy land less than 10 m above current high tide lines, including 250 M below 1 m.”
478. Daisy Dunne – Can the Great Barrier Reef survive climate change? – Carbon Brief – https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/can-great-barrier-reef-survive-climate-change/
     “The insidious thing about climate change is there’s nowhere to hide from it,” says Prof Terry Hughes, director of the Australian Research Council’s Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University in Townsville, a sleepy city in northern Queensland where even the winter sun beats down at 31C.”
479. John Cook – Where is global warming going? – Skeptical Science, 20/04/2010 – https://skepticalscience.com/Where-is-global-warming-going.html
     “The percentages were calculated from Figure 5.4 from Section 5.2.2.3 of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (h/t to Humanity Rules for the heads up). The IPCC graph shows changes in energy content for two different periods: 1961 to 2003 and 1993 to 2003.”
480. Michael Slezak (2014) – The world is warming faster than we thought – New Scientist, 05/10/2014 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26317-the-world-is-warming-faster-than-we-thought.html
     “’One could say that global warming is ocean warming,’ Gregory Johnson and John Lyman at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration wrote in a commentary accompanying Durack’s paper. ‘Quantifying how fast, and where, the ocean is warming is vital to understanding how much and how fast the atmosphere will warm, and seas will rise.’.”
481. Jeremy B. C. Jackson (2010) – The future of the oceans past – Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 365:3765-3778 doi:10.1098/rstb.2010.0278 – Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
     “Small changes in climate and productivity, such as those that occurred after the rise of the Isthmus of Panama, caused major changes in Caribbean coastal ecosystems and mass extinctions of major taxa. In contrast, massive influxes of carbon at the end of the Palaeocene caused intense global warming, ocean acidification, mass extinction throughout the deep sea and the worldwide disappearance of coral reefs.”
482. Josep L. Pelegrí (2008) – A physiological approach to oceanic processes and glacial-interglacial changes in atmospheric CO₂ – Scientia Marina 72:185-202 doi:10.3989/scimar.2008.72n1185 – Institut de Ciències del Mar, CSIC – http://scientiamarina.revistas.csic.es/index.php/scientiamarina/article/download/762/798
     “One possible path for exploring the Earth’s far-from-equilibrium homeostasis is to assume that it results from the organisation of optimal pulsating systems, analogous to that in complex living beings. Under this premise it becomes natural to examine the Earth’s organisation using physiological-like variables … We propose that the pump rate is set externally by the annual cycle, at one beat per year per hemisphere, and that the autotrophic ocean adjusts its stroke volume and arterial-venous differences to modify the internal-energy demand, triggered by long-period astronomical insolation cycles (external-energy supply). With this perspective we may conceive that the Earth’s interglacial-glacial cycle responds to an internal organisation analogous to that occurring in living beings during an exercise-recovery cycle.”
483. Bin Wang et al (2019) – Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1911130116 – Department of Atmospheric Sciences + International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii; Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2019/10/15/1911130116.full.pdf – 8 autores
     “We find El Niño onset regime has changed from eastern Pacific origin to western Pacific origin with more frequent occurrence of extreme events since the 1970s … If the currently observed background changes continue under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent strong El Niño events are anticipated.”
484. Wenju Cai et al (2013) – Projected response of the Indian Ocean Dipole to greenhouse warming – Nature Geoscience 6:999–1007 doi:10.1038/ngeo2009 – CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research + Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China – 8 autores
     “Mean climate warming in austral spring is expected to lead to stronger easterly winds just south of the Equator, faster warming of sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean compared with the eastern basin, and a shoaling equatorial thermocline. The mean climate conditions that result from these changes more closely resemble a positive dipole state. However, defined relative to the mean state at any given time, the overall frequency of events is not projected to change — but we expect a reduction in the difference in amplitude between positive and negative dipole events.»
485. Roger Revelle and Hans Suess (1957) – Carbon Dioxide Exchange Between Atmosphere and Ocean and the Question of an Increase of Atmospheric CO2 during the Past Decades – Tellus 9:18-27 doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1957.tb01849.x – Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California – http://www.uscentrist.org/platform/positions/environment/context-environment/docs/Revelle-Suess1957.pdf
     “In contemplating the probably large increase in CO2 production by fossil fuel combustion in coming decades we conclude that a total increase of 20 to 40 % in atmospheric CO2 can be anticipated. This should certainly be adequate to allow a determination of the effects, if any, of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide on weather and climate throughout the earth.”
486. Roger Revelle and Hans Suess (1957) – Íbidem
     “Human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future … This experiment, if adequately documented, may yield a far-reaching insight into the processes determining weather and climate.”
487. Lyndon B. Johnson (1965) – Discurso en el Congreso de los EE.UU – Congreso de los EE.UU, 08/02/1965 – http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=27285
     “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through … a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.”
488. Christopher L. Sabine et al (2004) – The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic CO2 – Science 305:367-371 doi:10.1126/science.1097403 – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory – https://bit.ly/2v2k2Dk – 15 autores
     “We estimate a global oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) sink for the period from 1800 to 1994 of 118 ± 19 petagrams of carbon. The oceanic sink accounts for ~48% of the total fossil-fuel and cement-manufacturing emissions, implying that the terrestrial biosphere was a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere of about 39 ± 28 petagrams of carbon for this period. The current fraction of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions stored in the ocean appears to be about one-third of the long-term potential.”
489. Nicolas Gruber et al (2019) – The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2 from 1994 to 2007 – Science 363:1193-1199 doi:10.1126/science.aau5153 – Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich – 18 autores
     “We quantify the oceanic sink for anthropogenic carbon dioxide over the period 1994 to 2007 by using observations from the global repeat hydrography program and contrasting them to observations from the 1990s … This is equivalent to an average uptake rate of 2.6 ± 0.3 PgC year⁻¹ and represents 31 ± 4% of the global anthropogenic CO₂ emissions over this period … substantial regional differences in storage rate are found, likely owing to climate variability–driven changes in ocean circulation.”
490. Tim DeVries et al (2019) – Decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 116:11646-11651 doi:10.1073/pnas.1900371116 – Department of Geography + Earth Research Institute, University of California – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/116/24/11646.full.pdf – 12 autores
     “Overall, climate variability drove a weakening of oceanic CO2 uptake in the 1990s and a strengthening in the 2000s across multiple models and geographic regions. The geographical consistency of these trends suggests that this is a response to a global climatic pattern, likely large-scale changes in wind-driven ocean circulation (refs).”
491. Corinne Le Quéré et al (2009) – Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide – Nature Geoscience 2:831-836 doi:10.1038/ngeo689 – School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia – http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/global/pdf/lequere-et-al.-2009.trends-sources-and-sinks.nature-geo.pdf – 24 autores
     “In the past 50 years, the fraction of CO₂ emissions that remains in the atmosphere each year has likely increased, from about 40% to 45%, and models suggest that this trend was caused by a decrease in the uptake of CO₂ by the carbon sinks in response to climate change and variability. Changes in the CO₂ sinks are highly uncertain, but they could have a significant influence on future atmospheric CO2 levels. It is therefore crucial to reduce the uncertainties.”
492. Carlos M. Duarte et al (2012) – Íbid.
     “A shift from a CO₂ sink to a CO₂ source is expected to occur with 4–5 ºC warming of seawater temperature … a level of warming expected within the coming decades due to heat transfer and invasion of the Arctic basin by warm Atlantic water (Lenton 2012 [this issue]). ”
493. John James Kennedy et al (2019) – An ensemble data set of sea‐surface temperature change from 1850: the Met Office Hadley Centre HadSST.4.0.0.0 data set – Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 124:7719-7763 doi:10.1029/2018JD029867 – Met Office Hadley Centre – https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst4/HadSST4_accepted.pdf – 4 autores
     “We revisited the method used to estimate systematic errors and their uncertainties in version 3 of the Met Office Hadley Centre SST data set, HadSST the changes also highlight a discrepancy in the global‐average difference between adjusted SST and marine air temperature in the early 1990s and hence between HadSST.4.0.0.0 and, the NOAA SST data set, ERSSTv5.”
494. Zeke Hausfather – Analysis: Major update to ocean-heat record could shrink 1.5C carbon budget – Carbon Brief, 27/06/2019 – https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-major-update-to-ocean-heat-record-could-shrink-1-5c-carbon-budget
     “Carbon Brief estimates that the revisions to the Hadley SST record would reduce the global “carbon budget” remaining to limit warming to 1.5C by between 24% and 33%, depending on how the budget is calculated … At the current rate of emissions, this would mean the 1.5C budget would be used up in 6-10 years – rather than 9-13 – potentially making the target even harder to achieve. ”
495. Kevin Cowtan and Robert G. Way (2013) – Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends – Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society doi:10.1002/qj.2297 – Department of Chemistry, University of York; Department of Geography, University of Ottawa – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2297/pdf
     “The existence of bias in recent global mean temperature estimates has been confirmed by multiple means. This bias leads to an underestimation of recent temperature trends. The evidence is as follows: …”.
496. Kevin Cowtan et al (2015) – Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures – Geophysical Research Letters 42:6526–6534 doi:10.1002/2015GL064888 – Department of Chemistry, University of York – 9 autores
     “This work quantifies a systematic bias in model-observation comparisons arising from differential warming rates between sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures over oceans. A further bias arises from the treatment of temperatures in regions where the sea ice boundary has changed … accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models and observations over the period 1975–2014.”
497. John Cook and Dana Nuticcelli – 4 Hiroshima bombs worth of heat per second – Skeptical Science, 01/07/2013 – http://www.skepticalscience.com/4-Hiroshima-bombs-worth-of-heat-per-second.html
     “As this figure shows, there has been no significant slowing in global heat accumulation, contrary to the mythical ‘global warming pause’.”
498. Duo Chan et al (2019) – Correcting datasets leads to more homogeneous early-twentieth-century sea surface warming – Nature 571:393 doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1349-2 – Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University – 4 autores
     “Offsets are identified by systematically comparing nearby SST observations among different groups10. Correcting for offsets in German measurements decreases warming rates in the North Atlantic, whereas correcting for Japanese measurement offsets leads to increased and more uniform warming in the North Pacific. Japanese measurement offsets in the 1930s primarily result from records having been truncated to whole degrees Celsius when the records were digitized in the 1960s. These findings underscore the fact that historical SST records reflect both physical and social dimensions in data collection, and suggest that further opportunities exist for improving the accuracy of historical SST records [refs].”
499. Stephen C. Riser et al (2016) – Fifteen years of ocean observations with the global Argo array – Nature Climate Change 6:145–153 doi:10.1038/nclimate2872 – Department of Oceanography, University of Washington – 17 autores
     “Within the past 15 years, with the advent of the global Argo array of profiling floats, it has become possible to sample the upper 2,000 m of the ocean globally and uniformly in space and time .. The network provides freely available temperature and salinity data from the upper 2,000 m of the ocean with global coverage.”
500. Steven R. Jayne et al (2017) – The Argo Program: Present and future – Oceanography 30:18-28 doi:10.5670/oceanog.2017.213 – Physical Oceanography Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution – https://tos.org/oceanography/assets/docs/30-2_jayne1.pdf  – 7 autores
     “The Argo Program has revolutionized large-scale physical oceanography … this article discusses the present status of Argo and enhancements that are underway … the Deep Argo array will help observe and constrain the global budgets of heat content, freshwater, and steric sea level, as well as the full-depth ocean circulation. Finally, another extension to the Argo Program is the addition of a diverse set of chemical sensors to profiling floats in order to build a Biogeochemical-Argo array to understand the carbon cycle, the biological pump, and ocean acidification.”
501. Justin Gillis – In the Ocean, Clues to Change – The New York Times, 11/08/2014 – https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/12/science/in-the-ocean-clues-to-change.html
     “That system, known as Argo, is one of the scientific triumphs of the age, but even the most advanced of the floats can dive only a little more than a mile, so they miss the bottom half of the sea. Developing robots able to go deeper has been a technical challenge, but scientists think they are about to lick it, permitting temperature measurements of virtually the entire ocean — a milestone in science.”
502. John P. Abraham et al (2013) – A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change – Reviews of Geophysics 51:450–483 doi:10.1002/rog.20022 – School of Engineering, University of St. Thomas – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/rog.20022 – 28 autores
     “Even with the advances to the observing system culminating in the Argo array, more than 50% of the ocean is without routine observations. Important areas such as boundary currents, which are responsible for large poleward heat transport, need higher-frequency observations than are currently provided by Argo.”
503. Lijing Cheng et al (2017) – Taking the pulse of the planet – Eos. Earth & Space Science News 98 doi:10.1029/2017EO081839 – International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics + .Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences – https://eos.org/opinions/taking-the-pulse-of-the-planet – 7 autores
     “Thus, we suggest that scientists and modelers who seek global warming signals should track how much heat the ocean is storing at any given time, termed global ocean heat content (OHC), as well as sea level rise (SLR). Similar to SLR, OHC has a very high signal-to-noise ratio; that is, it clearly shows the effects of climate change distinct from natural variability.”
504. Paul J. Durack et al (2014) – Quantifying underestimates of long-term upper-ocean warming – Nature Climate Change 4:999–1005 doi:10.1038/nclimate2389 – Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory – https://media.nature.com/original/nature-assets/nclimate/journal/v4/n11/extref/nclimate2389-s1.pdf – 4 autores
     “The global ocean stores more than 90% of the heat associated with observed greenhouse-gas-attributed global warming [refs]. Using satellite altimetry observations and a large suite of climate models, we conclude that observed estimates of 0–700 dbar global ocean warming since 1970 are likely biased low … These adjustments yield large increases … to current global upper-ocean heat content change estimates, and have important implications for sea level, the planetary energy budget and climate sensitivity assessments.”
505. Lijing Cheng et al (2017) – Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015 – Science Advances 3:e1601545 doi:10.1126/sciadv.1601545 – International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences – https://bit.ly/2kWoI93 – 6 autores
     “We found that changes in OHC are relatively small before about 1980; since then, OHC has increased fairly steadily and, since 1990, has increasingly involved deeper layers of the ocean … with the greatest warming in the southern oceans, the tropical/subtropical Pacific Ocean, and the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean.”
506. Yair Rosenthal, Braddock K. Linsley and Delia W. Oppo (2013) – Pacific Ocean Heat Content During the Past 10,000 Years – Science 342:617-621 doi:10.1126/science.1240837 – Institute for Marine and Coastal Sciences + Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution – https://bit.ly/2krOS3a
     “We show that water masses linked to North Pacific and Antarctic intermediate waters were warmer by 2.1 ± 0.4°C and 1.5 ± 0.4°C, respectively, during the middle Holocene Thermal Maximum than over the past century. Both water masses were ~0.9°C warmer during the Medieval Warm period than during the Little Ice Age and ~0.65° warmer than in recent decades.”
507. Lijing Cheng et al (2020) – Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019 – Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 37:137–142 doi:10.1007/s00376-020-9283-7 – International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics + Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences – https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00376-020-9283-7.pdf – 14 autores
     “Following reports released in the previous two years (Cheng and Zhu, 2018; Cheng et al., 2019c), this article presents new OHC data for the year 2019. These data reveal that the world’s oceans (especially at upper 2000 m) in 2019 were the warmest in recorded human history. Specifically, the ocean heat anomaly (0−2000 m) in 2019 was 228 Zetta Joules (ZJ, 1 ZJ=1021 Joules) above the 1981−2010 average and 25 ZJ above 2018 (Table 1). ”
508. Nerille Abran et al (2019) – Special Report on Oceans and Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_SPM_Approved.pdf – 51 authors
     “The Southern Ocean accounted for 35–43% of the total heat gain in the upper 2000 m global ocean between 1970 and 2017 (high confidence). Its share increased to 45–62% between 2005 and 2017 (high confidence). The deep ocean below 2000 m has warmed since 1992 (likely), especially in the Southern Ocean.”
509. Nerille Abran et al (2019) – Special Report on Oceans and Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_SPM_Approved.pdf – 51 authors
     “The ocean will continue to warm throughout the 21st century (virtually certain). By 2100, the top 2000 m of the ocean are projected to take up 5–7 times more heat under RCP8.5 (or 2–4 times more under RCP2.6) than the observed accumulated ocean heat uptake since 1970 (very likely).”
510. James Hansen (2012) – Why I must speak out about climate change – TED, 01/02/2012 – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies + Columbia University Earth Institute – https://www.ted.com/talks/james_hansen_why_i_must_speak_out_about_climate_change
     “El calor que se acumula diariamente en los ‘reservorios’ del planeta (el océano, los glaciares y la tierra), a saber, 0,58 W/m2, y el calor de la explosión de cuatrocientas mil bombas atómicas.”
511. Dawn Stover (2013) – How many Hiroshimas does it take to describe climate change? – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 26/09/2013 – https://thebulletin.org/2013/09/how-many-hiroshimas-does-it-take-to-describe-climate-change/
     “Recent social science research suggests that seeing other humans in peril can move people to action. A photo of a naked girl burned by napalm was far more powerful in changing the public mindset about the Vietnam War than any images of exploding bombs.”
512. John Mecklin – Closer than ever: It is 100 seconds to midnight – Science and Security Board, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 23/01/2020 – https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/
     “Continued corruption of the information ecosphere on which democracy and public decision making depend has heightened the nuclear and climate threats. In the last year, many governments used cyber-enabled disinformation campaigns to sow distrust in institutions and among nations, undermining domestic and international efforts to foster peace and protect the planet … over the last two years, we have seen influential leaders denigrate and discard the most effective methods for addressing complex threats—international agreements with strong verification regimes—in favor of their own narrow interests and domestic political gain. ”
513. Ivana Kottasová – Los océanos se calientan a la misma tasa que si 5 bombas de Hiroshima se arrojaran cada segundo – CNN Español, 13/01/2020 – https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2020/01/13/los-oceanos-se-calientan-a-la-misma-tasa-que-si-5-bombas-de-hiroshima-se-arrojaran-cada-segundo/
     “Lijing Cheng, autor principal del artículo y profesor asociado del Centro Internacional de Ciencias para el Clima y el Medio Ambiente de la Academia de Ciencias de China, dijo que … para alcanzar esta temperatura, el océano habría absorbido 228.000.000.000.000.000.000.000 –o 228.000 trillones– julios de calor. “La bomba atómica de Hiroshima explotó con una energía de aproximadamente 63.000.000.000.000 julios … la cantidad de calor que hemos puesto en los océanos del mundo en los últimos 25 años equivale a 3.600 millones de explosiones de bombas atómicas de Hiroshima.” … “Ahora estamos entre cinco y seis bombas de Hiroshima por segundo en calor”, dijo John Abraham, uno de los autores del estudio y profesor de ingeniería mecánica en la Universidad de St. Thomas en Minnesota. ”
514. Naomi Klein (2019) – On fire: The Burning Case for a Green New Deal – Simon & Schuster – ISBN-13: 978-1982135737 – 288 Págs.
     “Oceans are warming 40 percent faster than the United Nations predicted just five years ago.”
515. Kendra Pierre-Louis – Ocean Warming Is Accelerating Faster Than Thought, New Research Finds – The New York Times, 10/01/2019 – https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/10/climate/ocean-warming-climate-change.html
     “A new analysis, published Thursday in the journal Science, found that the oceans are heating up 40 percent faster on average than a United Nations panel estimated five years ago. The researchers also concluded that ocean temperatures have broken records for several straight years.”
516. Lijing Cheng et al (2019) – How fast are the oceans warming? – Science 363:128-129 doi:10.1126/science.aav7619 – International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences – 4 autores
     “About 93% of the energy imbalance accumulates in the ocean as increased ocean heat content (OHC) …  Recent estimates of observed warming resemble those seen in models, indicating that models reliably project changes in OHC.”
517. Michael E. Mann (2019) – Radical reform and the Green New Deal – Nature 573:340-341 doi:10.1038/d41586-019-02738-7 – Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science, Pennsylvania State University + Director of the Penn State Earth System Science Center – https://www.nature.com/magazine-assets/d41586-019-02738-7/d41586-019-02738-7.pdf
     “Klein sometimes overreaches in building the case for climate concern. For example, she states that “oceans are warming 40 percent faster than the United Nations predicted just five years ago”. However, the article …  notes that when errors in historical data that had led to a mismatch with climate-model predictions are corrected, the model predictions and observations are in very good agreement.”
518. A. Arias-Ortiz et al (2018) – A marine heatwave drives massive losses from the world’s largest seagrass carbon stocks – Nature Climate Change 8:338–344 doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0096-y – Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals + Departament de Física, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona – http://serc.fiu.edu/seagrass/pubs/2018_Arias-OrtizEtAl.pdf – 14 autores
     “Seagrass ecosystems contain globally significant organic carbon (C) stocks … On the basis of field studies and satellite imagery, we estimate that 36% of Shark Bay’s seagrass meadows were damaged following a marine heatwave in 2010/2011 … between 2 and 9 Tg CO2 could have been released to the atmosphere during the following three years, increasing emissions from land-use change in Australia by 4–21% per annum. With heatwaves predicted to increase with further climate warming, conservation of seagrass ecosystems is essential to avoid adverse feedbacks on the climate system.”
519. Nerille Abran et al (2019) (IPCC) – Íbidem
     “Globally, marine heat related events have increased; marine heatwaves18, defined when the daily sea surface temperature exceeds the local 99th percentile over the period 1982 to 2016, have doubled in frequency and have become longer-lasting, more intense and more extensive (very likely). It is very likely that between 84–90% of marine heatwaves that occurred between 2006 and 2015 are attributable to the anthropogenic temperature increase.”
520. Thomas L. Frölicher, Erich M. Fischer and Nicolas Gruber (2018) – Marine heatwaves under global warming – Nature 560:360–364 doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0383-9 – Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute + Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern
     “Between 1982 and 2016, we detect a doubling in the number of MHW days, and this number is projected to further increase on average by a factor of 16 for global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels and by a factor of 23 for global warming of 2.0 degrees Celsius … Our results suggest that MHWs will become very frequent and extreme under global warming, probably pushing marine organisms and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience and even beyond, which could cause irreversible changes.”
521. Terry P. Hughes et al (2018) – Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene – Science 359: 80-83 doi:10.1126/science.aan8048 – Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University – http://science.sciencemag.org/content/359/6371/80.full.pdf – 25 autores
     “We analyzed bleaching records at 100 globally distributed reef locations from 1980 to 2016. The median return time between pairs of severe bleaching events has diminished steadily since 1980 and is now only 6 years … coral bleaching is occurring more frequently in all El Niño–Southern Oscillation phases, increasing the likelihood of annual bleaching in the coming decades.»
522. Andrew J. Pershing et al (2019) – Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116:18378-18383 PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1901084116 – Gulf of Maine Research Institute – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/116/37/18378.full.pdf – 9 autores
     “Here, we show that the frequency of surprising ocean temperatures has increased even faster than expected based on recent temperature trends … We also show that warming rates are likely to shift natural communities toward generalist species, reducing their productivity and diversity.”
523. Elvira S. Poloczanska et al (2013) – Global imprint of climate change on marine life – Nature Climate Change 3:919–925 doi:10.1038/nclimate1958 – Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research – https://bit.ly/2vwCVhW – 20 autores
     “Here, we synthesized all available studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change. This yielded a meta-database of 1,735 marine biological responses … Rates of observed shifts in species’ distributions and phenology are comparable to, or greater, than those for terrestrial systems.”
524. Nerille Abran et al (2019) – Oceans and Climate Change (SROCC). Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – Íbidem
     “Rates of poleward shifts in distributions across different marine species since the 1950s are 52 ± 33 km per decade and 29 ± 16 km per decade (very likely ranges) for organisms in the epipelagic (upper 200 m from sea surface) and seafloor ecosystems, respectively.”
525. Gabriel Jordà et al (2020) – Ocean warming compresses the three-dimensional habitat of marine life – Nature Ecology & Evolution 4:109–114 doi:10.1038/s41559-019-1058-0 – Global Change Research Group, Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies, University of the Balearic Islands (CSIC) + Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centre Oceanogràfic de Balears – https://bit.ly/2TSOJFg – 6 autores
     “Vertical migration to reach cooler waters is a suitable strategy for some marine organisms to adapt to ocean warming. Here, we calculate that realized vertical isotherm migration rates averaged −6.6 + 18.8 m dec−1 across the global ocean between 1980 and 2015. Throughout this century (2006–2100), surface isotherms are projected to deepen at an increasing rate across the globe, averaging −32.3 m dec−1 under the representative concentration pathway (RCP)8.5 ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario, and −18.7 m dec−1 under the more moderate RCP4.5 scenario … However, the seafloor depth and the depth of the photic layer pose ultimate limits to the vertical migration possible by species. Both limits will be reached by the end of this century across much of the ocean, leading to a rapid global compression of the three-dimensional (3D) habitat of many marine organisms.”
526. Núria Marbà y Carlos M. Duarte (2010) – Mediterranean warming triggers seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) shoot mortality – Global Change Biology 16:2366-2375 doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02130.x – Department of Global Change Research, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Institut Mediterrani d’Estudis Avançats
     “Rapid warming of the Mediterranean Sea threatens marine biodiversity, particularly key ecosystems already stressed by other impacts such as Posidonia oceanica meadows … These results demonstrate that P. oceanica meadows are highly vulnerable to warming, which can induce steep declines in shoot abundance as well indicating that climate change poses a significant threat to this important habitat.”
527. Sofia Darmaraki et al (2019) – Past Variability of Mediterranean Sea Marine Heatwaves – Geophysical Research Letters doi:10.1029/2019GL082933 – 29/07/2019 – CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques), Université de Toulouse, Météo‐France, CNRS, Toulouse – 4 autores
     “Identified surface events last, on average, 15 days with a mean intensity of 0.6 °C above threshold and a maximum sea surface coverage of around 39%. Subsurface events are seasonally shifted and appear, on average, longer and more intense but less frequent and less extended in space than surface MHWs. We also find significant trends of increase in most MHW properties throughout the period, with severe surface MHWs detected for the first time in 2012, 2015, and 2017.”
528. Sofia Darmaraki et al (2019) – Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea – Climate Dynamics 53:1371–1392 doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04661-z – CNRM, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, UMR 3589, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS – 10 autores
     “Extreme ocean warming events … by 2100 and under RCP8.5, simulations project at least one long-lasting MHW every year, up to three months longer, about 4 times more intense and 42 times more severe than present-day events. They are expected to occur from June-October and to affect at peak the entire basin … Until the mid-21st century, MHW characteristics rise independently of the choice of the emission scenario.”
529. Nerille Abran et al (2019) (IPCC) – Íbidem
     “The decline of kelp forests is projected to continue in temperate regions due to warming, particularly under the projected intensification of marine heatwaves, with high risk of local extinctions under RCP8.5 (medium confidence). ”
530. Alejandra Ortega et al (2019) – Important contribution of macroalgae to oceanic carbon sequestration – Nature Geoscience 12:748–754 doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0421-8 – Red Sea Research Center, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology – 10 autores
     “Here, we provide robust evidence of macroalgal export beyond coastal habitats … Our findings indicate that macroalgae are exported across the open and the deep ocean, suggesting that macroalgae may be an important source of allochthonous carbon, and their contribution should be considered in Blue Carbon assessments.”
531. Steve V. Smith (1981) – Marine Micrphytes as a Global Carbon Sink – Science 211:838-840 doi:10.1126/science.211.4484.838 – Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawaii – https://bit.ly/2tuPpG9
     “Marine plants comprise 0,2% of global plant biomass but contribute 2% of global primary production.”
532. Carlos M. Duarte, J.J. Middelburg and N. Caraco (2005) – Major role of marine vegetation on the oceanic carbon cycle – Biogeosciences Discussions, European Geosciences Union 1:659-679 – Institut Mediterrani d’Estudis Avancats; NIOO-KNAW – Netherlands Institute of Ecology; Institute of Ecosystem Studies – https://www.biogeosciences.net/2/1/2005/bg-2-1-2005.pdf
     “More than 25% of the CO2 sink capacity of these ecosystems has been lost, and their capacity to support the metabolism of open ocean ecosystems must have declined accordingly. Besides the large impact on biodiversity, these losses represent an important loss of CO2 sink capacity. ”
533. Carlos M. Duarte et al (2013) – The role of coastal plant communities for climate change mitigation and adaptation – Nature Climate Change 3:961–968 doi:10.1038/nclimate1970 – UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia + Department of Global Change Research, Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados (CSIC-UIB) + Faculty of Marine Sciences, King Abdulaziz University – 5 autores
     “Marine vegetated habitats (seagrasses, salt-marshes, macroalgae and mangroves) occupy 0.2% of the ocean surface, but contribute 50% of carbon burial in marine sediments … The loss of a third of the global cover of these ecosystems involves a loss of CO2 sinks and the emission of 1 Pg CO2 annually.”
534. Elizabeth Mcleod et al (2011) – A blueprint for blue carbon: toward an improved understanding of the role of vegetated coastal habitats in sequestering CO2 – Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 9:552-560 doi: 10.1890/110004 – The Nature Conservancy, Honolulu – https://bit.ly/2RkTAgO – 9 autores “Despite the smaller aboveground biomass and areal coverage of vegetated coastal ecosystems, they have the potential to contribute substantially to long-term C sequestration resulting from the higher rate of organic C sequestration in sediments (Figure 5). However, global losses of vegetated coastal ecosystems threaten their ability to function as long-term C sinks. ”
535. Carlos Duarte (2019) – Hidden Forests: The Role of Vegetated Coastal Habitats in the Ocean Carbon Cycle – Institut de Ciències del Mar, Barcelona, 21/11/2019 – King Abdullah University of Science and Technology – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQNPRsVwdmk
     “En distintas zonas del planeta hay patrimonio cultural protegido por estas praderas: pecios romanos y fenicios, poblados y restos paleolíticos en el norte de Europa o restos de poblaciones aborígenes en Australia. Se conservan utensilios construidos en madera.”
536. Dorte Krause-Jensen et al (2018) – Sequestration of macroalgal carbon: the elephant in the Blue Carbon room – Biology Letters doi:10.1098/rsbl.2018.0236 – Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University – https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsbl.2018.0236 – 6 autores
     “We review the arguments offered to reject or include macroalgae in the BC framework, and identify the challenges that have precluded macroalgae from being incorporated so far. Evidence that macroalgae support significant carbon burial is compelling. The carbon they supply to sediment stocks in angiosperm BC habitats is already included in current assessments, so that macroalgae are de facto recognized as important donors of BC … Because of the large carbon sink they support, incorporation of macroalgae into BC accounting and actions is an imperative. This requires a paradigm shift in accounting procedures.”
537. Carlos M. Duarte et al (2013) – Íbidem
     “Most macroalgal stands develop on hard, rocky substrates, and – despite their high productivity  … and capacity to trap suspended particles – do not develop significant carbon deposits.”
538. Dorte Krause-Jensen & Carlos M. Duarte (2016) – Substantial role of macroalgae in marine carbon sequestration – Nature Geoscience 9:737–742 doi:10.1038/ngeo2790 – Department of Bioscience, Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University; King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Red Sea Research Center
     “Macroalgae are the dominant primary producers in the coastal zone, but they typically do not grow in habitats that are considered to accumulate large stocks of organic carbon … macroalgae could represent an important source of the carbon sequestered in marine sediments and the deep ocean … About 90% of this sequestration occurs through export to the deep sea, and the rest through burial in coastal sediments. This estimate exceeds that for carbon sequestered in angiosperm-based coastal habitats.”
539. William M. Balch et al (2019) – Coccolithophore distributions of the North and South Atlantic Ocean – Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2019.06.012 – Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences – https://bit.ly/2KNyxQA – 7 authors
     “Lowest concentrations of coccolithophores were consistently found in equatorial waters … The results of this study suggest that coccolithophore-rich SAMW in the Southern Ocean is being conditioned after its formation, such that by the time it upwells in the Atlantic equatorial region, the water is no longer conducive to coccolithophore growth.”
540. Michelle Waycott, Carlos M. Duarte, Tim J. B. Carruthers et al (2009) – Accelerating loss of seagrasses across the globe threatens coastal ecosystems – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 106:12377-12381 doi:10.1073/pnas.0905620106 – School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University; Institut Mediterrani d’Estudis Avançats, Universitat de les Illes Balears; University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge – http://www.pnas.org/content/106/30/12377.full  – 14 autores
     “The rate of decline in seagrass meadows has accelerated over the past 8 decades. The median rate of decline was <1% yr−1 before 1940 but was 5% yr−1 after 1980 … The largest losses occurred after 1980 … in total, a loss of 35% of seagrass area … Worldwide, seagrasses are experiencing all 5 of the most serious threats to marine biodiversity (ref); overexploitation, physical modification, nutrient and sediment pollution, introduction of nonnative species, and global climate change … The cumulative effect of the reported losses in seagrass, mangrove, coral reef, and coastal wetland habitats signals a serious deterioration of coastal environments around the world.”
541. Carlos Duarte (2019) – Hidden Forests: The Role of Vegetated Coastal Habitats in the Ocean Carbon Cycle – Institut de Ciències del Mar, 21/11/2019 – King Abdullah University of Science and Technology – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQNPRsVwdmk&list=WL&index=60&t=154s
     “Estos ecosistemas se están perdiendo a tasas de 0,5-2% y-1, 2-10 veces superior a la tasa de pérdida global del bosque tropical. Hemos perdido un 50% del área de manglares, angiospermas marinas y quizás más de marismas (pero no tenemos baseline). Muchas ciudades están construidas en áreas que estaban ocupadas por marismas.”
542. Núria Marbà y Carlos M. Duarte (2010) – Mediterranean warming triggers seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) shoot mortality – Global Change Biology 16:2366-2375 doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02130.x – Department of Global Change Research, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Institut Mediterrani d’Estudis Avançats
     “Median annual P. oceanica shoot mortality rates varied from 0.067 year−1 in 2002 to 0.123 year−1 in 2003, and exceeded recruitment rates in all stations and years except in shallow stations for year 2004 … These results demonstrate that P. oceanica meadows are highly vulnerable to warming, which can induce steep declines in shoot abundance as well indicating that climate change poses a significant threat to this important habitat.”
543. Rosa M. Chefaoui, Carlos M. Duarte and Ester A. Serrão (2018) – Dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea – Global Change Biology 24:4919-4928 doi:10.1111/gcb.14401 – CCMAR—Centro de Ciências do Mar, CIMAR Laboratório Associado, Universidade do Algarve; Red Sea Research Center, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
     “Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well‐documented regression in the Mediterranean … under the worst‐case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050 and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100.”
544. Gabriel Jordà, Núria Marbà and Carlos M. Duarte (2012) – Mediterranean seagrass vulnerable to regional climate warming – Nature Climate Change 2:821–824 doi:10.1038/nclimate1533 – Department of Ecology and Marine Resources, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Institut Mediterrani d’Estudis
     “Here we project the trajectory of P. oceanica meadows under the warming expected in the western Mediterranean through the twenty-first century to conclude that warming will lead to the functional extinction of P. oceanica meadows by the middle of this century (year 2049±10) even under a relatively mild greenhouse-gas emissions scenario.”
545. Belen Martrat et al (2004) – Abrupt temperature changes in the western Mediterranean over the past 250,000 years – Science 306:1762-1765 doi:10.1126/science.1101706 – Department of Environmental Chemistry Institut d’Investigacions Quimiques i Ambientals de Barcelona–Consell Superior d’Investigacions Cientifiques (CSIC)
     “One of the largest SST changes observed in the entire record occurred at the end of MIS 5 and involved an abrupt warming of 10.5ºC in 1 ky and a subsequent cooling by –7.7ºC in 2.8 ky [from AS-21 to AI-20] … This abrupt SST change was preceded by a prominent cooling (–9.4ºC) after a long period of stability at warm SSTs (AI-21). ”
546. Gabriel Jordà, Núria Marbà & Carlos M. Duarte (2013) – Climate warming and Mediterranean seagrass – Nature Climate Change 3:3–4 doi:10.1038/nclimate1766 – Department of Ecology and Marine Resources, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Institut Mediterrani d’Estudis Avançats
     “No evidence to suggest that P. oceanica was unaffected by these comparatively moderate warming events in the past was presented by Altaba [ref]. We do not argue that vulnerability to temperature renders conservation efforts worthless. What we actually claimed [ref] was that “actions to mitigate other local impacts, although beneficial, will have a modest effect in the seagrass resistance to warming events”. ”
547. C. Nellemann et al (2009) – Blue carbon. The Role of Healthy Oceans in Binding Carbon – United Nations Environmental Programme, GRID-Arendal – https://bit.ly/3aoVqET – 8 autores
     “The objective of this report is to highlight the critical role of the oceans and ocean ecosystems in maintaining our climate and in assisting policy makers to mainstream an oceans agenda into national and international climate change initiatives. While emissions’ reductions are currently at the centre of the climate change discussions, the critical role of the oceans and ocean ecosystems has been vastly overlooked.”
548. Carlos Duarte (2019) – Hidden Forests: The Role of Vegetated Coastal Habitats in the Ocean Carbon Cycle – Institut de Ciències del Mar (Barcelona), 21/11/2019 – King Abdullah University of Science and Technology – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQNPRsVwdmk
     “En el gráfico del ciclo de carbono de AR5 cambiamos los números del papel de la limnología (lagos, ríos, etc.) de los intercambios con la atmósfera y la sedimentación y entierro de carbono … Pero no hay bosques ocultos, no hay océano costero. Cuando dicen marine biota (50 GtC) es exclusivamente la producción primaria del plancton. Pero la exportación de estos bosques costeros al océano abierto va a ser del orden de 4-6 PgC y-1 (GBC 2016: el peer-review literatura se usa de forma selectiva…).” (min 1:03:00)
549. Jeremy B. C. Jackson (2010) – How we wrecked the ocean – TED Ideas Worth Spreading, abril 2010- Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation, Scripps Institution of Oceanography – http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/11/mass_extinction_6.php
     “A forest of sponges and coral which is a critical habitat for the development of fish what is now mud. The area of the ocean floor that has been transformed from forest to mud is equivalent to the entire area of all the forests that have ever been cut down on all of the Earth in the history of humanity, and we’ve managed to do that in the last hundred 250 years.”
550. Richard Flanagan – How Does a Nation Adapt to Its Own Murder? – The New York Times, 25/01/2020 – https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/opinion/sunday/australia-fires-climate-change.html
     “To describe this terrifying new reality, a terrifying new idea: “omnicide.” As used by Danielle Celermajer, a professor of sociology at the University of Sydney specializing in human rights, the term invokes a crime we have previously been unable to imagine because we had never before witnessed it. Ms. Celermajer argues that “ecocide,” the killing of ecosystems, is inadequate to describe the devastation of Australia’s fires. “This is something more,” she has written. “This is the killing of everything. Omnicide.” What does the future look like where omnicide is the norm?”
551. Heike K. Lotze et al (2006) – Depletion, Degradation, and Recovery Potential of Estuaries and Coastal Seas – Science 312:1806-1809 doi:10.1126/science.1128035 – Biology Department, Dalhousie University – https://bit.ly/2ROAyyx – 10 autores
     “Reconstructed time lines, causes, and consequences of change in 12 once diverse and productive estuaries and coastal seas worldwide show similar patterns: Human impacts have depleted >90% of formerly important species, destroyed >65% of seagrass and wetland habitat, degraded water quality, and accelerated species invasions.”
552. ‘Unprecedented Rapidity of CO2’ Causing Worst Ocean Acidification in 300 Million Years – Common Dreams, 05/03/2012 – https://www.commondreams.org/news/2012/03/05/unprecedented-rapidity-co2-causing-worst-ocean-acidification-300-million-years
     “The study, published in the journal Science, details the work of 21 scientists from the U.S. and Europe. «The geological record suggests that the current acidification is potentially unparalleled in at least the last 300 million years of Earth history, and raises the possibility that we are entering an unknown territory of marine ecosystem change,» said co-author Andy Ridgwell of Bristol University.”
553. Scott C. Doney et al (2009) – Ocean Acidification: The Other CO₂ Problem – Annual Review of Marine Science 1:169-192 doi:10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834 – Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
     “Acidification alters seawater chemical speciation and biogeochemical cycles of many elements and compounds. One well-known effect is the lowering of calcium carbonate saturation states, which impacts shell-forming marine organisms from plankton to benthic molluscs, echinoderms, and corals … Ocean acidification also causes an increase in carbon fixation rates in some photosynthetic organisms (both calcifying and noncalcifying). The potential for marine organisms to adapt to increasing CO₂and broader implications for ocean ecosystems are not well known.”
554. Charles Q. Choi (2009) – Ocean Acidification from CO₂Is Happening Faster Than Thought – Scientific American doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0306-58 – https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ocean-acidification/“Marine ecologist J. Timothy Wootton of the University of Chicago and his colleagues spent eight years compiling measurements of acidity, salinity, temperature and other data from Tatoosh Island off the northwestern tip of Washington State. They found that the average acidity rose more than 10 times faster than predicted by climate simulations.”
555. Bärbel Hönisch et al (2012) – The Geological Record of Ocean Acidification – Science 335:1058-1063 doi:10.1126/science.1208277 – Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University – https://bit.ly/36ZgaQV – 21 autores
     “We review events exhibiting evidence for elevated atmospheric CO₂, global warming, and ocean acidification over the past ~300 million years of Earth’s history, some with contemporaneous extinction or evolutionary turnover among marine calcifiers. Although similarities exist, no past event perfectly parallels future projections in terms of disrupting the balance of ocean carbonate chemistry—a consequence of the unprecedented rapidity of CO2 release currently taking place.”
556. Johan Rockström et al (2009) – Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity – Ecology and Society 14:32-64 doi:10.5751/ES-03180-140232 – Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute – http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/  – 29 autores
     “Ocean acidification poses a challenge to marine biodiversity and the ability of oceans to continue to function as a sink of CO₂ (currently removing roughly 25% of human emissions) … Many marine organisms are very sensitive to changes in ocean CO₂chemistry—especially those biota that use carbonate ions dissolved in the seawater to form protective calcium carbonate shells or skeletal structures.”
557. Camille Albouy et al (2019) – The marine fish food web is globally connected – Nature Ecology & Evolution 3:1153–1161 doi:10.1038/s41559-019-0950-y – IFREMER, unité Ecologie et Modèles pour l’Halieutique – 15 autores
     “These are embedded in a diverse network of trophic interactions, resulting in a cascade of events following perturbations such as species extinction … Here we investigate how the distribution of trophic interactions at the global scale shapes the marine fish food web structure … We find that the inferred global metaweb of marine fish—that is, all possible potential feeding links between co-occurring species—is highly connected geographically with a low degree of spatial modularity … Our results suggest that marine ecosystems are connected yet display some resistance to perturbations because of high robustness at most locations.”
558. W.R.G. Atkins (1922) – The Hydrogen Ion Concentration of Sea Water in its Biological Relations – Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom 12:717-771 doi:10.1017/S0025315400009735 – Department of General Physiology, Plymouth Laboratory
     “It has long been known that sea water is alkaline and numerous determinations of its alkalinity have been made … One cubic centimetre of N/100 acid per 100 c.c. corresponds to 0.1 milligram equivalent per litre. Some workers on fresh waters, Birge and Juday (1911) for example, consider water as acid if it contains more carbon dioxide than that sufficient to convert the carbonate into bicarbonate, and titrate back to a pink with phenolphthalein. Their acid water is, however, still alkaline to methyl orange.”
559. Glenn Scherer – IPCC Predictions: Then Versus Now – Climate Central, 11/12/2012 – The Daily Climate – https://www.climatecentral.org/news/ipcc-predictions-then-versus-now-15340
     “To its credit, the IPCC admits to vast climate change unknowns. Ocean acidification is one such impact … First recognized in 2007 … Especially alarming are new findings that ocean temperatures and currents are causing parts of the seas to become acidic far faster than expected, threatening oysters and other shellfish.  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief Jane Lubchenco has called acidification the “equally evil twin” to global warming.”
560. Lenny Bernstein et al (2008) – Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf – 40 autores
     “Projections based on SRES scenarios give a reduction in average global surface ocean pH of between 0.14 and 0.35 units over the 21st century. While the effects of observed ocean acidification on the marine biosphere are as yet undocumented, the progressive acidification of oceans is expected to have negative impacts on marine shell-forming organisms … and their dependent species. ”
561. Nerille Abran et al (2019) – Oceans and Climate Change (SROCC). Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – Íbidem
     “Continued carbon uptake by the ocean by 2100 is virtually certain to exacerbate ocean acidification. Open ocean surface pH is projected to decrease by around 0.3 pH units by 2081–2100, relative to 2006– 2015, under RCP8.5 (virtually certain) … For RCP2.6, these conditions will be avoided this century (very likely), but some eastern boundary upwelling systems are projected to remain vulnerable (high confidence).”
562. Nathaniel L. Bindoff, William W.L. Cheung and James G. Kairo (2019) – Oceans and Climate Change (SROCC). Chapter 5. Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_FinalDraft_Chapter5.pdf – 84 autores
     “The ocean is continuing to acidify in response to ongoing ocean carbon uptake. The open ocean surface water pH is observed to be declining (virtually certain) by a very likely range of 0.017 to 0.027 pH units per decade since the late 1980s across individual time-series observations longer than 15 years. The anthropogenic pH signal is very likely to have emerged for three-quarters of the near-surface open ocean prior to 1950 and it is very likely that over 95 % of the near-surface open ocean has already been affected.”
563. Kenneth L. Denman and Guy Brasseur (2007) – IPCC Third Assessment Report. Chapter 7. Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-chapter7-1.pdf – 71 autores
     “Seawater can, through inorganic processes, absorb large amounts of CO₂from the atmosphere, because CO₂is a weakly acidic gas and the minerals dissolved in the ocean have over geologic time created a slightly alkaline ocean (surface pH 7.9 to 8.25: Degens et al., 1984; Royal Society, 2005). ”
564. Kenneth L. Denman and Guy Brasseur (2007) – Íbidem
     “Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, sea surface pH has dropped by about 0.1 pH units (corresponding to a 30% increase in the H ion concentration). The expected continued decrease may lead within a few centuries to an ocean pH estimated to have occurred most recently a few hundred million years before present.”
565. Johan Rockström et al (2009) – Íbidem
     “Surface ocean pH has decreased by about 0.1 pH units (corresponding to a 30% increase in hydrogen ion concentration and a 16% decline in carbonate concentrations) since pre-industrial times [refs]. This rate of acidification is at least 100 times faster than at any other time in the last 20 million years.”
566. The Interacademy Panel (2009) – IAP Statement on Ocean Acidification – Interacademies, junio 2009 – http://www.interacademies.net/File.aspx?id=9075
     “This loss of carbonate ions produce lower saturation levels for the carbonate minerals, aragonite and calcite, which are used in many shells and skeletons. Carbonate ion concentrations are now lower than at any other time during the last 800 000 years. ”
567. Victoria J. Fabry et al (2008) – Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes – ICES Journal of Marine Science 65:414–432 doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsn048 – Department of Biological Sciences, California State University San Marcos – https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/65/3/414/29130917/fsn048.pdf – 4 autores
     “The ability of marine animals, most importantly pteropod molluscs, foraminifera, and some benthic invertebrates, to produce calcareous skeletal structures is directly affected by seawater CO₂chemistry … We conclude that ocean acidification and the synergistic impacts of other anthropogenic stressors provide great potential for widespread changes to marine ecosystems.»
568. John M. Guinotte and Victoria J. Fabry (2008) – Ocean Acidification and Its Potential Effects on Marine Ecosystems – Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1134:320-342 doi:10.1196/annals.1439.013 – Marine Conservation Biology Institute
     “Because Pacific pink salmon have a short, 2-year life cycle, prey quality and abundance during the salmon’s juvenile stage may strongly influence the pink salmon’s adult population size and biomass.”
569. James C. Orr et al (2005) – Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms – Nature 437 681-68 doi:10.1038/nature04095 – Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS – 27 autores
     “When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution … If pteropods are excluded from polar and subpolar regions, their predators will be affected immediately. For instance, gymnosomes are zooplankton that feed exclusively on shelled pteropods [refs]. Pteropods also contribute to the diet of diverse carnivorous zooplankton, myctophid and nototheniid fishes [refs], North Pacific salmon [refs] mackerel, herring, cod and baleen whales45. ”
570. Carl Zimmer (2010) – An Ominous Warning on the Effects of Ocean Acidification – Yale Environment 360, 15/02/2010 – https://e360.yale.edu/features/an_ominous_warning_on_the__effects_of_ocean_acidification
     “And while the saturation horizon rose to 1,500 meters 55 million years ago, it will lurch up to 550 meters on average by 2150, according to the model … since today’s ocean acidification is so much stronger, it may affect life in shallow water as well.”
571. Scott C. Doney (2006) – The Dangers of Ocean Acidification – Scientific American 65:58-65 doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0306-58 – Department of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
     “Because cold waters are naturally less supersaturated than warm ones for the various forms of calcium carbonate, high latitude and deep water ecosystems may be the first to suffer from ocean acidification.”
572. James C. Orr et al (2005) – Íbidem
     “When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously … Less pronounced changes were found for the calcite saturation horizon.”
573. George G. Waldbusser et al (2015) – Saturation-state sensitivity of marine bivalve larvae to ocean acidification – Nature Climate Change 5:273–280 doi:10.1038/nclimate2479 – College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University – 9 autores
     “Although other physiological processes are affected by pH, mineral saturation state thresholds will be crossed decades to centuries ahead of pH thresholds owing to nonlinear changes in the carbonate system variables as carbon dioxide is added … suggest a fundamental ocean acidification bottleneck at early life-history for some marine keystone species.”
574. Andy Ridgwell and Daniela N. Schmidt (2010) – Past constraints on the vulnerability of marine calcifiers to massive carbon dioxide release – Nature Geoscience 3:196-200 doi:10.1038/ngeo755 – School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol
     “On the basis of our approach of paired Earth-system model simulations of past and future marine geochemical changes, we infer a future rate of surface-ocean acidification and environmental pressure on marine calcifiers unprecedented in the past 65 Myr, and one that challenges the potential for surface-ocean plankton to adapt. For benthic organisms, rapid and extreme undersaturation of the deep ocean would make their situation precarious, and the occurrence of widespread extinction of these organisms during the PETM greenhouse warming and acidification event raises the possibility of similar extinction in the future.”
575. J. Timothy Wootton, Catherine A. Pfister, and James D. Forester (2008) – Dynamical Patterns and Ecological Impacts of Declining Ocean pH in a High-Resolution Multi-Year Dataset – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 105:18848-18853 doi:10.1073/pnas.0810079105 – Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago; Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/105/48/18848.full.pdf
     “The models project the long-term consequences of these dynamic changes, which predict substantial shifts in the species dominating the habitat … Our results indicate that pH decline is proceeding at a more rapid rate than previously predicted in some areas, and that this decline has ecological consequences for near shore benthic ecosystems.»
576. Julian Siddle – Marine life faces ‘acid threat’ – BBC News, 25/11/2008 – http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7745714.stm
     “The researchers say they were surprised that the plants and animals in their study are so sensitive to CO₂ changes. These organisms live in the harsh inter-tidal zones, they may be submerged under water, exposed to the sun, then lashed by waves and storms. Professor Wootton says the most troubling finding is the speed of acidification, with the pH level dropping at a much greater rate than was previously thought. «It’s going down 10 to 20 times faster than the previous models predicted,» he says.”
577. M.O. Clarkson et al (2015) – Ocean acidification and the Permo-Triassic mass extinction – Science 348:229-232 doi:10.1126/science.aaa0193 – School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh – 10 autores
     “Ocean acidification triggered by Siberian Trap volcanism was a possible kill mechanism for the Permo-Triassic Boundary mass extinction, but direct evidence for an acidification event is lacking. We present a high-resolution seawater pH record across this interval … the first phase of extinction was coincident with a slow injection of carbon into the atmosphere, and ocean pH remained stable. During the second extinction pulse, however, a rapid and large injection of carbon caused an abrupt acidification event that drove the preferential loss of heavily calcified marine biota.”
578. Sarah E. Moffitt et al (2015) – Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 112:4584–4589 doi:10.1073/pnas.1417130112 – Graduate Group in Ecology, University of California + Bodega Marine Laboratory, University of California – 4 autores
     “This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation … associated with abrupt … warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.”
579. Chen-Tung Arthur Chen et al (2017) – Deep oceans may acidify faster than anticipated due to global warming – Nature Climate Change 7:890–894 doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0003-y – Department of Oceanography, National SunYat-sen University + State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography – 7 autores
     “The rate of acidification generally diminishes with increasing depth. Yet, slowing down of the thermohaline circulation due to global warming could reduce the pH in the deep oceans, as more organic material would decompose with a longer residence time … the acidification rate near the bottom of the Sea of Japan is 27% higher than the rate at the surface, which is the same as that predicted assuming an air–sea CO₂ equilibrium … the Sea of Japan provides an insight into how future warming might alter the deep-ocean acidification.”
580. Matthias Hofmann and Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber (2009) – Oceanic acidification affects marine carbon pump and triggers extended marine oxygen holes – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 106:3017–3022 doi:10.1073/pnas.0813384106 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
     “The study focuses on quantifying 3 major concomitant effects. The first one is a significant (climate-stabilizing) negative feedback on rising p CO₂ levels as caused by the attenuation of biogenic calcification. The second one is related to the biological carbon pump. Because mineral ballast, notably CaCO3, is found to play a dominant role in carrying organic matter through the water column, a reduction of its export fluxes weakens the strength of the biological carbon pump. There is, however, a third effect with severe consequences: Because organic matter is oxidized in shallow waters when mineral-ballast fluxes weaken, oxygen holes (hypoxic zones) start to expand considerably in the oceans in our model world—with potentially harmful impacts on a variety of marine ecosystems.”
581. Charles Q. Choi (2009) – Ocean Acidification from CO₂ Is Happening Faster Than Thought – Scientific American, febrero 2009 doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0306-58 – https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ocean-acidification/
     “The global-warming gas might not be the main culprit in this surge in acidity. Instead the acidification the researchers observed could have resulted from a nearby upwelling of deep ocean water loaded with carbon, so the results might not apply to the oceans as a whole. Still, the acidity readings along the Pacific coast of the U.S. and in the Netherlands do seem to be rising, Wootton says, “and that seems consistent with our pattern.” Marine life, it seems, may not have the luxury of time to act as a buffer against the changing waters.”
582. Richard A. Feely et al (2008) – Evidence for Upwelling of Corrosive «Acidified» Water onto the Continental Shelf – Science 320:1490-1492 doi:10.1126/science.1155676 – Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~breth/PCC/Au2009Readings/FeelyetalScience2008.pdf – 5 autores
     “Our results show for the first time that a large section of the North American continental shelf is impacted by ocean acidification. Other continental shelf regions may also be impacted where anthropogenic CO₂ -enriched water is being upwelled onto the shelf.”
583. Nathaniel L. Bindoff, William W.L. Cheung and James G. Kairo (2019) – Oceans and Climate Change (SROCC). Chapter 5. Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – Íbidem
     “Three out of the four major Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems (EBUS) have shown large-scale wind intensification in the past 60 years (high confidence). However, the interaction of coastal warming and local winds may have affected upwelling strength, with the direction of changes varies between and within EBUS (low confidence).”
584. Nerille Abran et al (2019) – Oceans and Climate Change (SROCC). Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – Íbidem
     “Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) are amongst the most productive ocean ecosystems. Increasing ocean acidification and oxygen loss are negatively impacting two of the four major upwelling systems: the California Current and Humboldt Current … Ocean acidification and decrease in oxygen level in the California Current upwelling system have altered ecosystem structure, with direct negative impacts on biomass production and species composition.”
585. Florian Breider et al (2019) – Response of N2O production rate to ocean acidification in the western North Pacific – Nature Climate Change 9:954-958 doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0605-7 – Department of Environmental Chemistry and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology + Institute of Environmental Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne – 10 autores
     “Here we examine the response of N₂O production from nitrification to acidification in a series of incubation experiments conducted in subtropical and subarctic western North Pacific …  Collectively, these results suggest that if seawater pH continues to decline at the same rate, ocean acidification could increase marine N₂O production during nitrification in the subarctic North Pacific by 185 to 491% by the end of the century.”
586. P. K. Quinn and T. S. Bates (2011) – The case against climate regulation via oceanic phytoplankton sulphur emissions – Nature 480:51-56 doi:10.1038/nature10580 – NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
     “The evidence gained over the past 20 years of the significance of nonDMS sources of MBL CCN, the lack of observational evidence for a DMS-controlled marine biota–climate feedback, and the modelled low sensitivity between change and response in each step of the CLAW hypothesis feedback loop all indicate that it is time to retire the CLAW hypothesis. Retiring CLAW does not rule out a link between ocean-derived CCN and climate, however.”
587. Robert J. Charlson, James E. Lovelock, Meinrat O. Andreae and Stephen G. Warren (1987) – Oceanic phytoplankton, atmospheric sulphur, cloud albedo and climate – Nature 326:655-661 doi:10.1038/326655a0 – Department of Atmospheric Sciences AK-40, University of Washington; Coombe Mill Experimental Station; Department of Oceanography, Florida State University – http://aerosols.ucsd.edu/classes/sio209_presentation5.pdf
     “The major source of cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN) over the oceans appears to be dimethylsulphide, which is produced by planktonic algae in sea water and oxidizes in the atmosphere to form a sulphate aerosol. Because the reflectance (albedo) of clouds (and thus the Earth’s radiation budget) is sensitive to CCN density, biological regulation of the climate is possible through the effects of temperature and sunlight on phytoplankton population and dimethylsulphide production.”
588. James E. Lovelock and Lee R. Kump (1994) – Failure of climate regulation in a geophysiological model – Nature 369:732-734 doi:10.1038/369732a0 – Coombe Mill, St Giles on the Heath, Launceston; Earth System Science Center & Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University
     “If global mean temperatures rise above about 20 °C, both terrestrial and marine ecosystems are in positive feedback, amplifying any further increase of temperature. As the latter conditions have existed in the past, we propose that other climate-regulating mechanisms must operate in this warm regime.”
589. Katharina D. Six et al (2013) – Global warming amplified by reduced sulphur fluxes as a result of ocean acidification – Nature Climate Change 3:975–978 doi:10.1038/nclimate1981 – Max Planck Institute for Meteorology – 6 autores
     “The reduced DMS emissions induce a significant additional radiative forcing, of which 83% is attributed to the impact of ocean acidification, tantamount to an equilibrium temperature response between 0.23 and 0.48 K. Our results indicate that ocean acidification has the potential to exacerbate anthropogenic warming through a mechanism that is not considered at present in projections of future climate change.”
590. Dirk Bryant et al (1998) – Reefs at risk: A map-based indicator of potential threats to the world’s coral reefs – World Resources Institute – WRI Information Program – https://bit.ly/2GJuB0v
     “Coral reefs resemble tropical rainforests in two ways: both thrive under nutrient-poor conditions (where nutrients are largely tied up in living matter), yet support rich communities through incredibly efficient recycling processes. Additionally, both exhibit very high levels of species diversity. Coral reefs and other marine ecosystems, however, contain more varied life forms than do land habitats.”
591. L. Bopp et al (2013) – Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: Projections with CMIP5 models – Biogeosciences 10:6225–6245 doi:10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013 – IPSL/LSCE, UMR8212, CNRS-CEA-UVSQ – https://www.biogeosciences.net/10/6225/2013/bg-10-6225-2013.pdf – 12 autores
     «Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified.”
592. Sunke Schmidtko, Lothar Stramma & Martin Visbeck (2017) – Decline in global oceanic oxygen content during the past five decades – Nature 542:335–339 doi:doi.org/10.1038/nature21399 – GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
     “Ocean models predict a decline in the dissolved oxygen inventory of the global ocean of one to seven per cent by the year 2100, caused by a combination of a warming-induced decline in oxygen solubility and reduced ventilation of the deep ocean … Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the entire ocean oxygen inventory by analysing dissolved oxygen and supporting data for the complete oceanic water column over the past 50 years. We find that the global oceanic oxygen content of 227.4 ± 1.1 petamoles (1015 mol) has decreased by more than two per cent (4.8 ± 2.1 petamoles) since 1960, with large variations in oxygen loss in different ocean basins and at different depths.”
593. Takamitsu Ito et al (2017) – Upper Ocean O₂ trends: 1958-2015 – Geophysical Research Letters 44:4214-4223 doi:10.1002/2017GL073613 – Georgia Institute of Technology – https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/05/170504104346.htm
     “Historic observations of dissolved oxygen (O₂) in the ocean are analyzed to quantify multi-decadal trends and variability from 1958 to 2015. Additional quality control is applied … Global O₂ decline is evident after the 1980s, accompanied by an increase in global OHC … changing ocean circulation, mixing and/or biochemical processes, rather than the direct thermally-induced solubility effects, are the primary drivers for the observed O₂ changes … Further studies are warranted to understand and attribute the global O₂ trends and their regional expressions.”
594. Eric Wolff et al (2017) – Climate updates: What have we learnt since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report? – The Royal Society, 27/11/2017 – University of Cambridge – https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2017/27-11-2017-Climate-change-updates-report.pdf – 15 autores
     “Many new studies have further documented effects attributed to acidification. It also appears that deoxygenation is happening faster than was projected by models.”
595. Nerille Abran et al (2019) – Oceans and Climate Change (SROCC). Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – Íbidem
     “Datasets spanning 1970–2010 show that the open ocean has lost oxygen by a very likely range of 0.5–3.3% over the upper 1000 m, alongside a likely expansion of the volume of oxygen minimum zones by 3–8% (medium confidence). Oxygen loss is primarily due to increasing ocean stratification, changing ventilation and biogeochemistry (high confidence).”
596. T. Ito et al (2016) – Acceleration of oxygen decline in the tropical Pacific over the past decades by aerosol pollutants – Nature Geoscience 9:443–447 doi:10.1038/ngeo2717 – School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology – 5 autores
     “Here we combine models of atmospheric chemistry, ocean circulation and biogeochemical cycling to test the hypothesis that atmospheric pollution over the Pacific Ocean contributed to the redistribution of oxygen in deeper waters … These results suggest that anthropogenic pollution can interact and amplify climate-driven impacts on ocean biogeochemistry, even in remote ocean biomes.”
597. D. Gilbert et al (2010) – Evidence for greater oxygen decline rates in the coastal ocean than in the open ocean – Biogeosciences 7:2283–2296 doi:10.5194/bg-7-2283-2010 – Institut Maurice-Lamontagne, Pêches et Océans Canada – https://www.biogeosciences.net/7/2283/2010/bg-7-2283-2010.pdf – 4 autores
     “In the global ocean, the number of reported hypoxic sites (oxygen <30% saturation) is on the rise both near the coast and in the open ocean. But unfortunately, most of the papers on hypoxia only present oxygen data from one or two years … Our calculations reveal that median oxygen decline rates are more severe in a 30 km band near the coast than in the open ocean (>100 km from the coast).”
598. Lothar Stramma et al (2008) – Expanding Oxygen-Minimum Zones in the Tropical Oceans – Science 320:655-658 doi:10.1126/science.1153847 – Institut für Meereswissenschaften an der Universität Kiel (IFM-GEOMAR) – 4 autores
     “The tropical ocean OMZs in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic and equatorial Pacific Oceans appear to have expanded and intensified during the past 50 years … the decline in oxygen content has been most intense in the tropical Atlantic, where at present hypoxic regions are small as compared with the Pacific and Indian Oceans. For these reasons, the Atlantic may also have the most potential for large increases in the area of hypoxic regions.”
599. Kieran P. Helm, Nathaniel L. Bindoff and John A. Church (2011) – Observed decreases in oxygen content of the global ocean – Geophysical Research Letters 38 L23602 doi:10.1029/2011GL049513 – Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania + University of Tasmania Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania; CAWCR, Hobart + Wealth from Oceans Flagship, Hobart
     “The strongest decreases in oxygen occur in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres, near regions where there is strong water renewal and exchange between the ocean interior and surface waters. Approximately 15% of global oxygen decrease can be explained by a warmer mixed-layer reducing the capacity of water to store oxygen, while the remainder is consistent with an overall decrease in the exchange between surface waters and the ocean interior. Here we suggest that this reduction in water mass renewal rates on a global scale is a consequence of increased stratification caused by warmer surface waters.”
600. Curtis Deutsch et al (2015) – Climate change tightens a metabolic constraint on marine habitats – Science 348:1132-1135 doi:10.1126/science.aaa1605 – School of Oceanography, University of Washington – 5 autores
     “The combined effects of warming and O₂ loss this century are projected to reduce the upper ocean’s metabolic index by ~20% globally and by ~50% in northern high-latitude regions, forcing poleward and vertical contraction of metabolically viable habitats and species ranges.”
601. Lothar Stramma et al (2010) – Ocean oxygen minima expansions and their biological impacts – Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers 57:587-595 doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2010.01.005 – IFM-GEOMAR, Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften – 4 autores“Our results show expanding low-oxygen-minimum zones in all three tropical oceans between the time periods1960–1974 and 1990–2008. The low oxygen zones expand both horizontally and vertically. There are large areas in the subtropics with weak increases in oxygen, but subsurface oxygen generally decreases offshore of most continental shelves.”
602. Denise Breitburg et al (2018) – Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters – Science 359:eaam7240 doi:10.1126/science.aam7240 – Smithsonian Environmental Research Center – 22 autores
     “Since 1950, more than 500 sites in coastal waters have reported oxygen concentrations ≤2mg liter⁻¹ (=63 mmol liter⁻¹ or ≅61 μmol kg^-1), a threshold often used to delineate hypoxia … Fewer than 10% of these systems were known to have hypoxia before 1950. Many more water bodies may be affected, especially in developing nations where available monitoring data can be sparse and inadequately accessed even for waters receiving high levels of untreated human and agricultural waste.”
603. Laura Poppick (2019) – Íbidem
     “Oxygen levels in some tropical regions have dropped by a startling 40 percent in the last 50 years, some recent studies reveal. Levels have dropped more subtly elsewhere, with an average loss of 2 percent globally.”
604. Raquel Vaquer-Sunyer and Carlos M. Duarte (2008) – Thresholds of hypoxia for marine biodiversity – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 105:15452-15457 doi:10.1073/pnas.0803833105 – Department of Global Change Research, Instituto Mediterraneo de Estudios Avanzados (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas-Universidad de las Islas Baleares) – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/105/40/15452.full.pdf
     “The conventional definition of 2 mg O₂/liter to designate waters as hypoxic is below the empirical sublethal and lethal O₂ thresholds for half of the species tested. These results imply that the number and area of coastal ecosystems affected by hypoxia and the future extent of hypoxia impacts on marine life have been generally underestimated.”
605. Sabine K. Lengger et al (2019) – Dark carbon fixation in the Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone contributes to sedimentary organic carbon (SOM) – Global Biogeochemical Cycles doi:10.1029/2019GB006282 – Biogeochemistry Research Centre, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Plymouth + Organic Geochemistry Unit, School of Chemistry, University of Bristol + NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Marine Microbiology and Biogeochemistry + Utrecht University, Texel – 11 autores
     “In response to rising CO₂ concentrations and increasing global sea surface temperatures, oxygen minimum zones (OMZ), or “dead zones”, are expected to expand … This has implications for the evaluation of past, and future, OMZs: biogeochemical models that operate on the assumption that all sinking organic matter is photosynthetically derived, without new addition of carbon, could significantly underestimate the extent of remineralization. Oxygen demand in oxygen minimum zones could thus be higher than projections suggest, leading to a more intense expansion of OMZs than expected.”
606. Paul B. Wignall, Richard J. Twitchett – Oceanic anoxia and the end Permian mass extinction – Science 272:1155-1158 doi:10.1126/science.272.5265.1155 – Department of Earth Sciences, University of Leeds
     “Data on rocks from Spitsbergen and the equatorial sections of Italy and Slovenia indicate that the world’s oceans became anoxic at both low and high paleolatitudes in the Late Permian. Such conditions may have been responsible for the mass extinction at this time. This event affected a wide range of shelf depths and extended into shallow water well above the storm wave base.”
607. Emma R. Kast et al (2019) – Nitrogen isotope evidence for expanded ocean suboxia in the early Cenozoic – Science 364:386-389 doi:10.1126/science.aau5784 – Department of Geosciences, Princeton University – 9 autores
     “The million-year variability of the marine nitrogen cycle is poorly understood … From 50 to 35 Ma ago, δ15N was lower than modern values, suggesting widespread sedimentary denitrification on broad continental shelves. δ15N rose at 35 Ma ago, as ice sheets grew, sea level fell, and continental shelves narrowed.”
608. Justin L. Penn et al (2018) – Temperature-dependent hypoxia explains biogeography and severity of end-Permian marine mass extinction – Science 362:eaat1327 doi:10.1126/science.aat1327 – School of Oceanography, University of Washington – 4 autores
     “The combined physiological stresses of ocean warming and O₂ loss largely account for the spatial pattern and magnitude of extinction observed in the fossil record of the “Great Dying.” These results highlight the future extinction risk arising from a depletion of the ocean’s aerobic capacity that is already under way.”
609. Samuel L. Jaccard and Eric D. Galbraith (2011) – Large climate-driven changes of oceanic oxygen concentrations during the last deglaciation – Nature Geoscience doi:10.1038/NGEO1352 – Geological Institute, ETHZ, Zurich; Earth and Planetary Sciences McGill University – http://www.climategeology.ethz.ch/publications/2012_Jaccard_Galbraith.pdf
     “The observed divergence from a simple solubility control emphasizes the degree to which oxygen consumption patterns can be altered by changes in ocean circulation and marine ecosystems.»
610. Paul G. Harnik et al (2012) – Extinctions in ancient and modern seas – Trends in Ecology and Evolution doi:10.1016/j.tree.2012.07.010 – National Evolutionary Synthesis Center, Durham – 14 autores
     “In the coming century, life in the ocean will be confronted with a suite of environmental conditions that have no analog in human history … Characterized by markedly different environmental states, some past periods share common features with predicted future scenarios. We highlight how the different records can be integrated to better understand and predict the impact of current and projected future environmental changes on extinction risk in the ocean.”
611. Jeremy B. C. Jackson (2010) – The future of the oceans past – Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 365:3765-3778 doi:10.1098/rstb.2010.0278 – Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
     “The global deep-sea anoxia at the end of the Permian was associated with the mass extinction of 95 per cent of the animal species on the planet … Moreover, none of these past biological apocalypses was associated with a single dominant species that increasingly dominates the renewable resources, nutrient cycling and biogeochemical cycles of the planet … In light of everything we know about upheavals in the geological past, another great mass extinction appears inevitable.”
612. Gerardo Ceballos et al (2015) – Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: Entering the sixth mass extinction – Science Advances 1:e1400253 doi:10.1126/sciadv.1400253 – Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México – http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/5/e1400253.full-text.pdf+html – 6 autores
     “These estimates reveal an exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity over the last few centuries, indicating that a sixth mass extinction is already under way. Averting a dramatic decay of biodiversity and the subsequent loss of ecosystem services is still possible through intensified conservation efforts, but that window of opportunity is rapidly closing.”
613. Ralf F. Keeling, Arne Körtzinger and Nicolas Gruber (2010) – Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world – Annual Review of Marine Science 2:199-229 doi:10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163855 – University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography + Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences + Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich
     “The loss of dissolved O₂, or “deoxygenation,” is predicted, not just because O₂ is less soluble in warmer water but also because global warming may increase upper ocean stratification, thereby reducing the O₂ supply to the ocean interior … Systematic deoxygenation of the ocean will have widespread consequences.”
614. Nicolas Gruber (2011) – Warming up, turning sour, losing breath: ocean biogeochemistry under global change – Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 369:1980–1996 doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0003 – Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich – https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2011.0003
     “Particularly in the high latitudes, the expected decrease in salinity in response to enhanced rainfall, melting of sea ice and river run-off may substantially enhance the warming-induced stratification (e.g. [8]). Stronger stratification tends to decrease upper ocean mixing and transport, thereby more strongly separating the upper ocean, which is in ready exchange with the atmosphere from the intermediate and deep ocean that contains the nutrients required for ocean productivity.”
615. Nicolas Gruber (2011) – Íbidem
     “One mechanism is the possibility that ocean acidification increases the carbon to nitrogen ratio of marine organic matter [44], which then requires more oxygen per unit nitrogen to remineralize this organic matter when it sinks through the water column … Modelling studies suggest that this effect could lead to a more than 50 per cent increase in the volume of suboxic waters by the end of this century … Another mechanism to affect marine oxygen levels is the possible ocean acidification-induced reduction of marine calcification … organic matter would tend to sink less rapidly, leading to a shallower remineralization and an upward shift and compression of the oxygen demand profile … A third potential mechanism is linked to the possibility that ocean acidification increases marine nitrogen fixation (e.g. [57]). This would tend to cause an increase in organic matter export and ocean interior oxygen demand, with consequences similar to those associated with the ocean acidification-induced high carbon to nitrogen ratio of marine export production … An entirely different set of synergistic effects might occur at the physiological level … The nonlinearities of the oceanic CO2 system may aggravate this further.”
616. David Biello – Oceanic Dead Zones Continue to Spread – Scientific American, 15/08/2008 – https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/oceanic-dead-zones-spread/
     “This fertilizer runoff, instead of contributing to more corn or wheat, feeds massive algae blooms in the coastal oceans. This algae, in turn, dies and sinks to the bottom where it is consumed by microbes, which consume oxygen in the process. More algae means more oxygen-burning, and thereby less oxygen in the water, resulting in a massive flight by those fish, crustaceans and other ocean-dwellers able to relocate as well as the mass death of immobile creatures, such as clams or other bottom-dwellers. And that’s when the microbes that thrive in oxygen-free environments take over, forming vast bacterial mats that produce hydrogen sulfide, a toxic gas.”
617. N.N. Rabalais et al (2010) – Dynamics and distribution of natural and human-caused hypoxia – Biogeosciences 7:585-619 doi:10.5194/bg-7-585-2010 – Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium – http://www.biogeosciences.net/7/585/2010/bg-7-585-2010.html – 6 autores
     “The dominant natural processes usually involved are photosynthetic carbon production and microbial respiration. The re-supply rate is indirectly related to its isolation from the surface layer. Hypoxic water masses (<2 mg L−1, or approximately 30% saturation) can form, therefore, under «natural» conditions … Hypoxia development and continuation in many areas of the world’s coastal ocean is accelerated by human activities, especially where nutrient loading increased in the Anthropocene. This higher loading set in motion a cascading set of events related to eutrophication.”
618. Gary Shaffer, Steffen Malskær Olsen and Jens Olaf Pepke Pedersen (2009) – Long-term ocean oxygen depletion in response to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels – Nature Geoscience 2:105-109 doi:10.1038/ngeo420 – Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen + Department of Geophysics, University of Concepción; Danish Center for Earth System Science + Meteorological Institute; National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark – http://www.dgeo.udec.cl/~gshaffer/MSCfiles/Literature/Shaffer_NGEO.pdf
     “Here we project global change over the next 100,000 years using a low-resolution Earth system model, and find severe, long-term ocean oxygen depletion … We conclude that substantial reductions in fossil-fuel use over the next few generations are needed if extensive ocean oxygen depletion for thousands of years is to be avoided.”
619. Andrew J. Watson (2016) – Oceans on the edge of anoxia – Science 354:1529-1530 doi:10.1126/science.aaj2321 – College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter
     “Once anoxia takes hold, it may be self-sustaining … Sediments in contact with anoxic water are thus an inefficient phosphorus sink and may even be a source of phosphorus to the ocean. Models suggest that once anoxia begins to spread over continental shelves and slopes, this positive feedback may drive the ocean into prolonged deoxygenation that lasts hundreds of thousands of years (see the figure).”
620. Peter G. Brewer and Edward T. Peltzer (2009) – Limits to marine life – Science 324:347-348 doi:10.1126/science.1170756 – Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute
     “The reduced ventilation further elevates CO₂ concentrations at depth, because the decline in O₂ is accompanied by the equivalent respiratory CO₂ [A.C. Redfield et al, 1963: The Sea]; as a result, ocean acidification penetrates more rapidly to lower depths than it would due to the fossil-fuel signal alone. Can the effects of these changes on marine life be quantified on the basis of existing data, and if so, how does one quantify them?”
621. Carlos M. Duarte et al (2008) – Return to Neverland: Shifting Baselines Affect Eutrophication Restoration Targets – Estuaries and Coasts 32:29–36 doi:10.1007/s12237-008-9111-2 – Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB) – 4 autores
     “The implicit assumption of many scientific and regulatory frameworks that ecosystems impacted by human pressures may be reverted to their original condition by suppressing the pressure was tested using coastal eutrophication. The response to nutrient abatement of four thoroughly studied coastal ecosystems that received increased nutrient inputs between the 1970s and the 1980s showed that the trajectories of these ecosystems were not directly reversible … This failure is proposed to result from the broad changes in environmental conditions, all affecting ecosystem dynamics, that occurred over the 30 years spanning from the onset of eutrophication to the reduction of nutrient levels.”
622. Mathieu Sebilo et al (2013) – Long-term fate of nitrate fertilizer in agricultural soils – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1305372110 – UPMC Université Paris 06, Unité Mixte de Recherche 7618 – http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/10/15/1305372110.full.pdf+html – 5 autores
     “Increasing diffuse nitrate loading of surface waters and groundwater has emerged as a major problem  … We found that … 12–15% of the labeled fertilizer N were still residing in the soil organic matter more than a quarter century after tracer application. Between 8–12% of the applied fertilizer had leaked toward the hydrosphere during the 30-y observation period. We predict that additional exports of 15N-labeled nitrate from the tracer application in 1982 toward the hydrosphere will continue for at least another five decades.”
623. Raquel Vaquer-Sunyer and Carlos M. Duarte (2008) – Thresholds of hypoxia for marine biodiversity – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 105:15452-15457 doi:10.1073/pnas.0803833105 – Department of Global Change Research, Instituto Mediterraneo de Estudios Avanzados (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas-Universidad de las Islas Baleares) – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/105/40/15452.full.pdf
     “The differences in oxygen thresholds for hypoxia across taxa probably reflect the broad differences in adaptations to cope with low oxygen conditions among benthic organisms, which span a broad range of behavioral and metabolic changes. Mobile organisms have the capacity to avoid hypoxic waters and thus tend to show comparably high oxygen thresholds. Benthic fish have been reported to move to near-surface waters to breathe when bottom waters become hypoxic … and crustaceans move to shallower areas … where these organisms are more vulnerable to predation. Yet fast-moving organisms (e.g., fish) do not necessarily show higher lethal thresholds than those with more restrictive mobility (e.g., crustaceans), pointing to differences among taxa independent of their relative mobility.”
624. S.W.A. Naqvi et al (2010) – Marine hypoxia/anoxia as a source of CH4 and N2O – Biogeosciences, 7:2159–2190 doi:10.5194/bg-7-2159-2010 – National Institute of Oceanography (Council of Scientific & Industrial Research), India + Max-Planck Institut für Marine Mikrobiologie – https://www.biogeosciences.net/7/2159/2010/bg-7-2159-2010.pdf – 6 autores
     “The situation is different for N₂O, the production of which is greatly enhanced in low-O₂ waters, and although it is lost through denitrification in most suboxic and anoxic environments, the peripheries of such environments offer most suitable conditions for its production, with the exception of enclosed anoxic basins. Most O₂-deficient systems serve as strong net sources of N2O to the atmosphere.”
625. Jody J. Wright, Kishori M. Konwar and Steven J. Hallam (2012) – Microbial ecology of expanding oxygen minimum zones – Nature Reviews Microbiology 10:381–394 doi:10.1038/nrmicro2778 – Department of Microbiology and Immunology; Graduate Program in Bioinformatics, University of British Columbia, Life Sciences Institute – https://bit.ly/31z87c5
     “As oxygen levels decline, energy is increasingly diverted away from higher trophic levels into microbial metabolism, leading to loss of fixed nitrogen and to production of greenhouse gases, including nitrous oxide and methane … we describe current efforts to explore the fundamental factors that control the ecological and microbial biodiversity in oxygen-starved regions of the ocean, termed oxygen minimum zones.”
626. D.L. Arévalo-Martínez et al (2015) – Massive nitrous oxide emissions from the tropical South Pacific Ocean – Nature Geoscience 8:530–533 doi:10.1038/ngeo2469 – Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel – 5 autores
     “We estimate that off Peru, the extremely high nitrous oxide supersaturations we observed drive a massive efflux of 0.2–0.9 Tg of nitrogen emitted as nitrous oxide per year, equivalent to 5–22% of previous estimates of global marine nitrous oxide emissions … Our estimate of nitrous oxide emissions from the Peruvian coast surpasses values from similar, highly productive areas.
627. Cynthia Nevison James H. Butler J.W. Elkins (2003) – Global distribution of N2O and the dN₂O/AOU yield in the subsurface ocean – Global Biogeochemical Cycles 17:1119 doi:10.1029/2003GB002068- Scripps Institute of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2003GB002068
     “The sensitivity of the nitrifier N₂O/NO₃− yield to O₂ can explain much of the variability in ΔN₂O/AOU observed in the ocean. A parameterization is derived for the instantaneous production of _N2O per mole O₂ consumed as a nonlinear function of O₂ and depth. The parameterization is based on laboratory and oceanic data and is designed for use in ocean biogeochemistry models. It is coupled to a global dissolved O₂ climatology and ocean carbon model output to estimate a total oceanic N₂O inventory of 610–840 Tg N and a global production rate of ∼5.8 ± 2 Tg N/y.”
628. Seth H. Miller et al (2016) – Acidification increases sensitivity to hypoxia in important forage fishes – Marine Ecology Progress Series 549:1 doi:10.3354/meps11695 – Smithsonian Environmental Research Center – 4 autores
     “Fish subjected to low DO and low pH in the laboratory performed ASR and died at higher DO concentrations than fish subjected only to hypoxia. Additionally, fish beat their opercula slower, which may have contributed to the differences in ASR and mortality that we saw. These results indicate acidification can increase mortality under hypoxia not only directly but also indirectly by increasing vulnerability to predation during increased use of ASR.”
629. Denise Breitburg et al (2018) – Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters – Science 359:eaam7240 doi:10.1126/science.aam7240 – Smithsonian Environmental Research Center – 22 autores
     “Because hypoxia limits energy acquisition, it is especially likely to exacerbate effects of co-occurring stressors that increase energy demands … Increased temperature elevates oxygen demand while simultaneously reducing oxygen supply, thus expanding the area of the oceans and coastal waters where oxygen is insufficient. Through this mechanism, ocean warming is predicted to result in shifts in the distribution of fishes and invertebrates poleward by tens to hundreds of kilometers per decade, shifts into deeper waters, and local extinctions [refs].”
630. Matthew C. Long, Curtis Deutsch and Taka Ito (2016) – Finding forced trends in oceanic oxygen – Global Biogeochemical Cycles 30:381–397 doi:10.1002/2015GB005310 – National Center for Atmospheric Research; School of Oceanography, University of Washington; Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology – http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/mclong/pubs/Long-Deutsch-etal-2016.pdf
     “Anthropogenically forced trends in oceanic dissolved oxygen are evaluated in Earth system models in the context of natural variability … We find that the forced signal should already be evident in the southern Indian Ocean and parts of the eastern tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins; widespread detection of forced deoxygenation is possible by 2030–2040 … a highly optimistic emissions scenario of atmospheric CO₂ levels of 550 ppm by 2100 would lead to a 1.2°C warming of the upper ocean. Therefore, these declines in oxygen are changes we should be prepared to see.”
631. Nerille Abran et al (2019) – Oceans and Climate Change (SROCC). Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – Íbidem
     “Oxygen loss between 100 and 600 m depth is projected to emerge over 59–80% of the ocean area by 2031– 2050 under RCP8.5 (very likely). The projected time of emergence for five primary drivers of marine ecosystem change (surface warming and acidification, oxygen loss, nitrate content and net primary production change) are all prior to 2100 for over 60% of the ocean area under RCP8.5 and over 30% under RCP2.6 (very likely). ”
632. Niina Heikkinen (2016) – Ocean’s Oxygen Starts Running Low – Scientific American, 02/05/2016 – ClimateWire – http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ocean-s-oxygen-starts-running-low/
     “For each degree of ocean warming, oxygen concentration goes down by 2 percent. Over the short term, the higher temperatures slow the rate of ocean circulation, exacerbating regional oxygen depletion. The rising temperatures cause layers of ocean water to stratify so the more oxygen-rich surface waters are less able to mix with oxygen-poor waters from the deeper ocean. At the same time, the higher temperatures are putting more stress on marine species, causing their metabolisms to speed up and their need for oxygen to increase. ‘So you have effects squeezing them on both sides,’ Deutsch said.”
633. Gianna Battaglia and Fortunat Joos (2018) – Hazards of decreasing marine oxygen: the near-term and millennial-scale benefits of meeting the Paris climate targets – Earth System Dynamics 9:797–816 doi:10.5194/esd-9-797-2018 – Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern – https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/797/2018/esd-9-797-2018.pdf
     “Ocean deoxygenation is recognized as key ecosystem stressor of the future ocean … Deoxygenation peaks about a thousand years after stabilization of radiative forcing and new steady-state conditions are established after AD 8000 in our model. Hypoxic waters expand over the next millennium and recovery is slow and remains incomplete under high forcing … Peak hazards occur long after stabilization of radiative forcing and new steady-state conditions establish after AD 8000.”
634. Scott C. Doney et al (2012) – Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems – Annual Review of Marine Science 4:11-37 doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611 – Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution – https://bit.ly/38cHPil – 14 autores
     “No ecosystem is unaffected by the diverse effects of rising CO₂ levels. The effects of climate change are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migration as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Ocean acidification may hasten the decline of tropical coral ecosystems.”
635. Francisco Ramírez et al (2017) – Climate impacts on global hot spots of marine biodiversity – Science Advances 3:e1601198 doi:10.1126/sciadv.1601198 – Department of Wetland Ecology, Estación Biológica de Doñana–Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (EBD-CSIC) + Research Department, Phillip Island Nature Parks – https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/3/2/e1601198.full.pdf – 4 autores
     “What is clear from our current analyses is that the world’s areas of highest marine biodiversity are threatened by the impacts from both global warming and human fishing pressure. Thus, it behooves the international community to find solutions that go beyond the interests and borders of sovereign states if we are to conserve the biodiversity in these marine hot spots, in a similar way to which the world must tackle the associated causes of climate change itself.”
636. Daniel Pauly et al (2002) – Towards sustainability in world fisheries – Nature 418:689–695 doi:10.1038/nature01017 – Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia – https://bit.ly/2S0GANT – 8 autores
     ”Fisheries have rarely been ‘sustainable’. Rather, fishing has induced serial depletions, long masked by improved technology, geographic expansion and exploitation of previously spurned species lower in the food web … It is clear that a real, drastic reduction of overcapacity will have to occur if fisheries are to acquire some semblance of sustainability. The required reductions will have to be strong enough to reduce F by a factor of two or three in some areas, and even more in others.”
637. Benjamin S. Halpern et al (2008) – A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems – Science 319:948-952 doi:10.1126/science.1149345 – National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis – https://bit.ly/394AjpZ  – 19 autores
     “Our analysis indicates that no area is unaffected by human influence and that a large fraction (41%) is strongly affected by multiple drivers. However, large areas of relatively little human impact remain, particularly near the poles.”
638. Sergio Rossi et al (2017) – An Overview of the Animal Forests of the World – En: Sergio Rossi et al (Eds.) (2017), Marine Animal Forests. The Ecology of Benthic Biodiversity Hotspots, ISBN-13: 978-3319210117 – Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona – https://bit.ly/2vUmhcp  – 4 autores
     “In the marine benthos, megabenthic communities … are, in part, structurally and functionally similar to the terrestrial forests, with the main difference that they are dominated by animals instead of plants. The term “animal forests” has been introduced to describe these communities … Among the animal forests, tropical coral reefs, due to their high biodiversity, have been defined as the ‘rainforests of the sea’ … deep benthic ecosystems, are an example of other animal forests that probably cover larger extensions than the tropical shallow coral reefs … The animal forests are probably one of the most widely distributed ecosystems on the planet … during the last 20 years or so, there has been an increasing evidence of important changes in marine ecosystems due to human-induced disturbances, which are dramatically reducing biodiversity, biomass, and the potential recover of the animal forests all over the world.”
639. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and John F. Bruno (2010) – The Impact of Climate Change on the World’s Marine Ecosystems – Science 328:1523-1528 doi:10.1126/science.1189930 – Ocean and Coasts Program, Global Change Institute, University of Queensland; Department of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina
     “Temperature has a fundamental effect on biological processes simply by its influence on molecular kinetic energy … Organisms are able to acclimatize to a range of temperatures around these optimal values  … Beyond this range, however, acclimatization fails, mortality risk increases, fitness is reduced, and populations decline or are driven to local extinction … The annual primary production of the world’s oceans has decreased by at least 6% since the early 1980s, with nearly 70% of this decline occurring at higher latitudes.”
640. Scott C. Doney et al (2012) – Íbidem
     “Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.»
641. Camilo Mora et al (2013) – Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century – PLoS Biology 11:e1001682 doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1001682 – Department of Geography, University of Hawaii – https://bit.ly/38eOGbd – 28 autores“Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people … If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry.”
642. Oliver Tickell – On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction – The Guardian, 11/08/2008 – http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange
     “We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told the Guardian last week … the idea that we could adapt to a 4C rise is absurd and dangerous. Global warming on this scale would be a catastrophe that would mean … «the end of living and the beginning of survival» for humankind. Or perhaps the beginning of our extinction.”
643. James Hansen (2019) – Saving Earth – Columbia University, 27/06/2019 – http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2019/20190627_SavingEarth.pdf
     “That means the trend line of global temperature will breach 1.5°C by the late 2030s. The variability associated with the El Niño/La Niña cycle assures that the 1.5°C ceiling will be breached temporarily sooner than that.
644. James Hansen (2018) – Global Warming Acceleration Plus Miscellaneous – Columbia University,  15/10/2018 – http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2018/20181015_GlobalWarmingAcceleration.pdf
     “As the figure shows, the most recent two La Ninas imply a warming rate of 0.38°C per decade, at least double the longer term rate! Such acceleration is predicted by climate models for continued high fossil fuel emissions as a result of amplifying climate feedbacks and is a cause for concern. We expect global temperature rise in the next few months to confirm our analysis. ”
645. Joeri Rogelj et al (2009) – Halfway to Copenhagen, no way to 2 °C – Nature Reports Climate Change doi:10.1038/climate.2009.57 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research – https://www.nature.com/articles/climate.2009.57 – 7 authors
     “According to this analysis, the current best Halfway to Copenhagen pathway has virtually no chance of limiting warming to 2 °C (or 1.5 °C) above pre-industrial temperatures — or, put another way, it is virtually certain to exceed 2 °C.”
646. George Monbiot – If we behave as if it’s too late, then our prophecy is bound to come true – The Guardian, 17/03/2009 – http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/mar/17/monbiot-copenhagen-emission-cuts
     “Climate scientists everywhere are saying the same thing: it’s over … It is the obvious if unspoken conclusion of scores of scientific papers. Recent work by scientists at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, for instance, suggests that even global cuts of 3% a year, starting in 2020, could leave us with 4C of warming by the end of the century.”
647. Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows (2011) – Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world – Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 369:20-44 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0290 – Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research + School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering + School of Environmental Sciences and School of Development, University of East Anglia; Sustainable Consumption Institute, School of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester – http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full.pdf+html
     “The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2◦C.”
648. John Reilly et al (2015) – Energy and Climate Outlook: Perspectives from 2015 – The Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – https://globalchange.mit.edu/sites/default/files/newsletters/files/2015%20Energy%20%26%20Climate%20Outlook.pdf – 10 authors
     “With high climate sensitivity, the 2°C target may be exceeded in as little as 15 to 20 years from now. Even with low climate sensitivity, on this path, the 2°C target will be passed shortly after mid-century.”
649. Joshua Robertson – Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study – The Guardian, 09/03/2016 – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/10/dangerous-global-warming-will-happen-sooner-than-thought-study
     “Australian researchers say a global tracker monitoring energy use per person … forecast, based on new modelling using long-term average projections on economic growth, population growth and energy use per person, points to a 2C rise by 2030.»
650. Jorge Riechmann – Capitalismo verde: no (tampoco como Green New Deal), sino ecosocialismo (descalzo) – 15/15\15, 14/10/2019 – https://www.15-15-15.org/webzine/2019/10/14/capitalismo-verde-no-tampoco-como-green-new-deal-sino-ecosocialismo-descalzo/
     “La profesora Manola Brunet (presidenta de la Comisión de Climatología de la Organización Meteorológica Mundial) estima que es bastante probable que alcancemos los 2ºC en 2035-2040 [Comunicación personal en el curso el curso “Ante el Antrocpoceno. Cuando la humanidad desborda los límites biofísicos del planeta”, Fundación César Manrique (Lanzarote), 25 a 28 de junio de 2019].”
651. Leo Johnson (2012) – Too late for two degrees? – PricewaterhouseCoopers, 08/11/2012 – – http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/low-carbon-economy-index/assets/pwc-low-carbon-economy-index-2012.pdf
     “Our Low Carbon Economy Index evaluates the rate of decarbonisation of the global economy that is needed to limit warming to 2oC. This report shows that global carbon intensity decreased between 2000 and 2011 by around 0.8% a year. In 2011, carbon intensity decreased by 0.7%. The global economy now needs to cut carbon intensity by 5.1% every year from now to 2050. Keeping to the 2oC carbon budget will require sustained and unprecedented reductions over four decades.”
652. Lynn Kalaugher – Four-degree climate change – alarmist or realist? – Environmental Research Web, 02/10/2009 – http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/research/40592
     “It’s not often that an entire roomful of scientists is in agreement but that was certainly the case when delegates at the 4 Degrees and Beyond: International Climate Conference in Oxford, UK, were asked to raise their hands if they thought that talking about an average global warming of 4 °C by 2100 was alarmist: not a single researcher waved their arm in the air.”
653. Gaia Vince (2009) – How to survive the coming century – New Scientist 2697, 25/02/2009 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126971.700-how-to-survive-the-coming-century.html
     “A 4 ºC could easily occur. The 2007 report of the International Panel of Climate change, whose conclusions are generally accepted as conservative, predicted a rise of anywhere between 2 ºC and 6.4 ºC this century. And, in August 2008, Bob Watson, former chair of the IPCC, warned the world should work on mitigation and adaptation strategies to ‘prepare for a 4 ºC of warming’.
654. Josh Wingrove – Our world, 4 degrees warmer – The Globe and Mail, 22/10/2009 – http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/our-world-4-degrees-warmer/article1334908/
     “The researchers picked four degrees as their benchmark after 34 simulations that projected long-term effects of climate change. In 23, the overall temperature increase reached an average of four degrees Celsius, suggesting that this is a realistic projected outcome of global warming.”
655. Stephen Leahy – Climate Change: Four Degrees of Devastation – Inter Press Service, 09/10/2009 – http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=48791
     “»Two degrees C is already gone as a target,» said Chris West of the University of Oxford’s UK Climate Impacts Programme. «Four degrees C is definitely possible…This is the biggest challenge in our history,» West told participants at the «4 Degrees and Beyond, International Climate Science Conference» at the University of Oxford last week … Four degrees of warming would be hotter than any time in the last 30 million years, and it could happen as soon as 2060 to 2070.”
656. Ronald Prinn et al (2011) – Scenarios with MIT integrated global systems model: significant global warming regardless of different approaches – Climatic Change 104:515–537 doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9792-y – Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – 6 authors
     “The global mean temperature increases by 1.8 to 7.0◦C relative to 2000. Such increases will require considerable adaptation of many human systems and will leave some aspects of the earth’s environment irreversibly changed … even if there is substantial effort to reduce emissions.”
657. Ottmar Edenhofer et al (2014) – Climate Change 2014: Mitigation. Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – http://report.mitigation2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers_approved.pdf – 57 authors
     Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, emissions growth is expected to persist driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Baseline scenarios, those without additional mitigation, result in global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 from 3.7 °C to 4.8 °C compared to pre-industrial levels10 (range based on median climate response; the range is 2.5 °C to 7.8 °C when including climate uncertainty, see Table SPM.1)11 (high confidence). ”
658. Katarzyna B. Tokarska et al (2016) – The climate response to five trillion tonnes of carbon – Nature Climate Change doi:10.1038/nclimate3036 – School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria – https://media.nature.com/original/nature-assets/nclimate/journal/v6/n9/extref/nclimate3036-s1.pdf – 5 authors
     “In the absence of global mitigation actions, five trillion tonnes of carbon (5 EgC), corresponding to the lower end of the range of estimates of the total fossil fuel resource [ref], is often cited as an estimate of total cumulative emissions [refs] … Here, using simulations from four comprehensive Earth system models [ref] … in response to 5 EgC of CO₂ emissions, global mean warming of 6.4–9.5 °C, mean Arctic warming of 14.7–19.5 °C, and mean regional precipitation increases by more than a factor of four.”
659. Adrian E. Raftery et al (2017) – Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely – Nature Climate Change 7:637–641 doi:10.1038/nclimate3352 – Department of Statistics, University of Washington – 5 autores
     “These [IPCC AR5] projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya’s identity to develop a statistically based probabilistic forecast of CO₂ emissions and temperature change to 2100 … we find that the 90% interval for cumulative CO₂ emissions includes the IPCC’s two middle scenarios but not the extreme ones … Our model is not a ‘business as usual’ scenario, but rather is based on data which already show the effect of emission mitigation policies.”
660. Jaime Nieto, Óscar Carpintero and Luis J. Miguel (2018) – Less than 2 °C? An Economic-Environmental Evaluation of the Paris Agreement – Ecological Economics 146:69–84 doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.10.007 – Department of Applied Economics + Research Group on Energy, Economy and System Dynamics, University of Valladolid
     “From the detailed review of the INDCs, it can be concluded that, in the best of cases, annual world emissions would increase by around 19.3% in 2030 with respect to the base interval (2005–2015). Even so, this supposes a reduction in comparison with the 31.5% increase projected by the BAU scenario in which no measures are taken. Should this level remain constant between 2030 and 2050, the world temperature would increase by at least 3 °C (IPCC, 2014). Should annual emissions continue to increase in the same proportion, an increase of 4 °C would practically be assured.”
661. Yangyang Xu and Veerabhadran Ramanathan (2017) – Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 114:10315-10323 doi:10.1073/pnas.1618481114 – 14/09/2017 – Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/114/39/10315.full.pdf
     “The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats.”
662. Nick Bostrom – Frequently Asked Questions – Existential risk, visitado el 14/12/2019 – – https://www.existential-risk.org/faq.html
     “An existential risk is one that threatens the entire future of humanity. More specifically, existential risks are those that threaten the extinction of Earth-originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development. No existential catastrophe has ever occurred. Human extinction would be an existential catastrophe if it happens before the heat death of the universe or before our potential for creating value has been fully realized. Some scenarios in which humanity survives would also be existential catastrophes if they involve a permanent and drastic destruction of humanity’s future potential — something that is to humankind what a lifetime prison sentence or severe brain damage is to an individual.”
663. K. D. Burke et al (2018) – Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1809600115 – Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin–Madison – 6 authors
     “Efforts to keep the Earth within a safe operating space, defined as climates similar to those of the Holocene (11, 36), seem to be increasingly unlikely … these analyses also raise serious concerns about adaptive capacity. The large climate changes expected for the coming decades will occur at a significantly accelerated pace compared with Cenozoic climate change and across a considerably more fragmented landscape, rife with additional stresses … For RCP8.5, the emergence of Eocene-like climates indicates that the unmitigated warming of RCP8.5 is approximately equivalent to reversing a 50-My cooling trend in two centuries. Conversely, stabilization pathways, such as RCP4.5, are akin to choosing a world like the Mid-Pliocene (ca. 3 Ma).”
664. Richard A.Betts et al (2009) – 4°C global warming: regional patterns and timing – International Climate Conference: 4 Degrees and Beyond – Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research, Met Office – 6 autores – https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/events/4degrees/ppt/1-2betts.pdf
     “4°C global warming (relative to pre-industrial) is possible by the 2090s, especially under high emissions scenario; Many areas could warm by 10°C or more; The Arctic could warm by 15°C or more; Annual precipitation could decrease by 20% or more in many areas … Carbon cycle feedbacks expected to accelerate warming … With high emissions, best guess is 4°C in 2070s. Plausible worst case: 4°C by 2060.”
665. James Hansen (2009) – Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity – Bloomsbury New York – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies + Columbia University Earth Institute – ISBN-13: 978-1408807460 – 294 Págs. – http://www.stormsofmygrandchildren.com/
     “If we burn all the fossil fuels, the ice sheets almost surely will melt entirely, with the final sea level rise about 75 meters (250 feet), with most of that possibly occurring within a time scale of centuries … It is difficult to imagine how the methane clathrates could survive, once the ocean has had time to warm. In that event a PETM-like warming could be added on top of the fossil fuel warming. After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently?”
666. MetOffice Hadley Centre, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Walker Institute. QUEST (2009) – Las repercusiones de una subida de 4 °C (7 °F) en la temperatura media del planeta – Conexión COP – http://conexioncop.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/infografia_impactos_cambio_climatico_mundo.pdf
     “Aunque es del 2010, esta enorme infografía presenta los diversos escenarios de aumento en la temperatura en un mapa, y sus impactos en sectores como la agricultura, la disponibilidad de agua y el aumento del nivel del mar. Además, divide por áreas geográficas la intensidad de los efectos del cambio climático … Las repercusiones citadas no tienen en cuenta las posibles adaptaciones a estos cambios.”
667. Catherine Brahic et al (2009) – No rainforest, no monsoon: get ready for a warmer world – New Scientist, 30/09/2009 – https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17864-no-rainforest-no-monsoon-get-ready-for-a-warmer-world/ – 4 autores
     “The Met Office ran 17 different models with these feedbacks. All concluded a 4 °C world by 2055 was likely if emissions continue to rise. Even if we are lucky, we are still likely to hit 4 °C by 2070. ”
668. Eric Wolff et al (2017) – Climate updates: What have we learnt since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report? – The Royal Society, 27/11/2017 – University of Cambridge – https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/Publications/2017/27-11-2017-Climate-change-updates-report.pdf  – 15 autores
     “Many new studies have further documented effects attributed to acidification. It also appears that deoxygenation is happening faster than was projected by models. Effects, including coral bleaching, have been attributed to warming which continues to occur in all oceans. There have been new studies on the complex effects of multiple stressors on biodiversity, ecosystems and fisheries. Other studies have shown that local variability in conditions and the response of different species can result in complex food-web interactions … Whilst some species may be able to acclimate, many will not.”
669. Philip K. Thornton et al (2011) – Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world – Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 369:117-136 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0246 – 29/11/2010 – CGIAR/ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS ), International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI ), Nairobi – 4 authors
     “The changes in crop and livestock production that are likely to result in a 4◦C+ world will diminish the options available to most smallholders … current crop and livestock varieties and agricultural practices will often be inadequate, and food security will be more difficult to achieve because of commodity price increases and local production shortfalls. While adaptation strategies exist, considerable institutional and policy support will be needed to implement them successfully on the scale required.”
670. Camilo Mora et al (2015) – Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability – PLoS Biology doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1002167 – Department of Geography, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa – 6 autores
     “We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under “business as usual” … suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses … Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world’s population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services.”
671. Camilo Mora et al (2017) – Global risk of deadly heat – Nature Climate Change 7:501–506 doi:10.1038/nclimate3322 – Department of Geography, University of Hawai’i at Manoa – 18 autores
     “Based on the climatic conditions of those lethal heat events, we identified a global threshold beyond which daily mean surface air temperature and relative humidity become deadly. Around 30% of the world’s population is currently exposed to climatic conditions exceeding this deadly threshold for at least 20 days a year. By 2100, this percentage is projected to increase to ~48% under a scenario with drastic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and ~74% under a scenario of growing emissions. An increasing threat to human life from excess heat now seems almost inevitable, but will be greatly aggravated if greenhouse gases are not considerably reduced.”
672. Robert J. Nicholls et al (2011) – Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century – Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 369:161-181 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0291 – School of Civil Engineering and the Environment + Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton – 8 autores
     “Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4◦C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5m and 2m … if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations.”
673. François Gemenne (2011) – Climate-induced population displacements in a 4°C+ world – Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 369:182-195 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0287 – 29/11/2010 – Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI),Paris + Centre for Ethnic and Migration Studies (CEDEM), University of Liège – https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2010.0287
     “This paper puts forward … the characteristics of these movements, and therefore the policy responses that can address them. The paper outlines the policy evolutions that climate-induced displacements in a 4◦C+ world would require.”
674. Kevin Anderson (2012) – Real clothes for the Emperor: Facing the challenges of climate change – Cabot Institute Annual Lecture 2012 – University of Bristol – Professor of Energy and Climate Change, University of Manchester, Tyndall Centre – http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cabot/documents/anderson-ppt.pdf
     “There is a widespread view that a 4°C future is incompatible with an organised global community, is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’, is devastating to the majority of eco-systems & has a high probability of not being stable (i.e. 4°C would be an interim temperature on the way to a much higher equilibrium level). ”
675. David Spratt – At 4°C of warming, would a billion people survive? What scientists say – Climate Code Red, 18/08/2019 – https://www.climatecodered.org/2019/08/at-4c-of-warming-would-billion-people.html
     “On 29 September 2009, at the conclusion of the “4 degrees and beyond” conference, The Scotsman reported: Professor Kevin Anderson, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, believes only around 10 per cent of the planet’s population – around half a billion people – will survive if global temperatures rise by 4°C … Anderson, who advises the government on climate change, said the consequences were “terrifying”. “For humanity it’s a matter of life or death,” he said. ”
676. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics – Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4 ºC World Must Be The World Bank – http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/865571468149107611/pdf/NonAsciiFileName0.pdfAvoided –
     “Even with the current mitigation commitments and pledges fully implemented, there is roughly a 20 percent likelihood of exceeding 4°C by 2100. If they are not met, a warming of 4°C could occur as early as the 2060s … would not be the end point: a further warming to levels over 6°C, with several meters of sea-level rise, would likely occur over the following centuries.”
677. Tim Radford – Why Warnings on Climate Spark Aggressive Denials – Truthdig, 08/11/2014 – Climate News Network – http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/why_warnings_on_climate_spark_aggressive_denials_20141108
     “Marshall suggests that we really do try to contain global average warming to 2°C. He quotes John Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who told the Australians: “The difference between two and four degrees is human civilisation.” And, yes, do think about it.».”
678. Mark Stafford Smith et al (2011) – Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world – Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 369:196-216 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0277 – CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship – 4 authors
     “Adapting to global warming of 4◦C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2◦C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process … … a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers … In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options.”
679. Johan Rockström et al (2009) – Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity – Ecology and Society 14:32-64 doi:10.5751/ES-03180-140232 – Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute – http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/ – 29 autores
     “Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the “planetary playing field” for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale.”
680. Gaia Vince – The heat is on over the climate crisis. Only radical measures will work – The Guardian – 18/05/2019 – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/climate-crisis-heat-is-on-global-heating-four-degrees-2100-change-way-we-live
     “Indeed, the consequences of a 4C warmer world are so terrifying that most scientists would rather not contemplate them, let alone work out a survival strategy. Rockström doesn’t like our chances. “It’s difficult to see how we could accommodate a billion people or even half of that,” he says. “There will be a rich minority of people who survive with modern lifestyles, no doubt, but it will be a turbulent, conflict-ridden world.” ”
681. Kevin Anderson (2015) – Talks in the city of light generate more heat – Nature 528:437 doi:10.1038/528437a – Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Mechanical, Civil and Aerospace Engineering, University of Manchester – http://www.nature.com/news/talks-in-the-city-of-light-generate-more-heat-1.19074
     “Move away from the cosy tenets of contemporary economics and a suite of alternative measures comes into focus. Technologies, behaviours and habits that feed energy demand are all amenable to significant and rapid change. Combine this with an understanding that just 10% of the population is responsible for 50% of emissions, and the rate and scope of what is possible becomes evident.”
682. William E. Rees – Yes, the Climate Crisis May Wipe out Six Billion People – The Tyee – 18/09/2019 – Professor Emeritus of Human Ecology and Ecological Economics, University of British Columbia – https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/09/18/Climate-Crisis-Wipe-Out/
     “As much as a decade ago a climate symposium organized to discuss the implications of a 4 C warmer world concluded, “Less than a billion people will survive.” Here Schellnhuber is quoted as saying: “At 4 C Earth’s… carrying capacity estimates are below 1 billion people.” His words were echoed by professor Kevin Anderson of the U.K.’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change: “Only about 10 per cent of the planet’s population would survive at 4 C.”.”
683. V. Ramanathan, M. L. Molina, D. Zaelke et al (2017) – Well Under 2 Degrees Celsius: Fast Action Policies to Protect People and the Planet from Extreme Climate Change – Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development – Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego; University of California, San Diego; Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development – http://www.igsd.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Well-Under-2-Degrees-Celsius-Report-2017.pdf – authors
     “Health effects of such warming are emerging as a major if not dominant source of concern. Warming of 4°C or more will expose more than 70% of the population, i.e. about 7 billion by the end of the century, to deadly heat stress and expose about 2.4 billion to vector borne diseases such as Dengue, Chikengunya, and Zika virus among others. ”
684. David Spratt – 4 degrees hotter: an adaptation trap? – Climate Code Red, 13/02/2011 – http://climatecodered.blogspot.com/2011/02/4-degrees-hotter-adaptation-trap.html
     “So what does 4 degrees feel and look like? In a new primer, the Climate Action Centre has surveyed some of the literature. In a nutshell, it is one in which: … whilst the loss will be exponential and bunch towards the end of the century, on average that is a million human global warming deaths every week, every year for the next 90 year
685. Harry Cockburn – ‘High likelihood of human civilisation coming to end’ by 2050, report finds – The Independent, 04/06/2019 – https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-global-warming-end-human-civilisation-research-a8943531.html
     “Human civilisation as we know it may have already entered its last decades, a worrying new report examining the likely future of our planet’s habitability warns … The paper, produced by the Melbourne-based think tank the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration, is presented by the former chief of the Australian Defence Forces and retired Royal Australian Navy Admiral Chris Barrie.”
686. David Ray Griffin – The climate is ruined. So can civilization even survive? – CNN, 14/04/2015 – Professor Emeritus, Claremont School of Theology + Director of the Center for Process Studies – http://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/14/opinion/co2-crisis-griffin/
     “What would «a 4C world» be like? According to Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (at the University of East Anglia) … above an increase of 4C only about 10% of the human population will survive. Believe it or not, some scientists consider Anderson overly optimistic.”
687. Joëlle Gergis – We are seeing the very worst of our scientific predictions come to pass in these bushfires – The Guardian, 03/01/2020 – https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/03/we-are-seeing-the-very-worst-of-our-scientific-predictions-come-to-pass-in-these-bushfires
     “As a climate scientist, the thing that really terrifies me is that weather conditions considered extreme by today’s standards will seem sedate in the future. What’s unfolding right now is really just a taste of the new normal.”
688. Richard A. Betts et al (2011) – When could global warming reach 4°C? – Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 369:67-84 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0292 – Met Office Hadley Centre – 6 autores
     “Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks, and also comparing against other model projections from the IPCC, our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4◦C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger … then 4◦C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC’s ‘likely range’.”
689. Jörg Schwinger et al (2014) – Nonlinearity of Ocean Carbon Cycle Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models – Journal of Climate 27:3869–3888 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00452.1 – Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen + Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research – 12 authors
     “Results show that  … the weakening of ocean circulation and mixing with climate change makes the largest contribution to the nonlinear carbon cycle response since carbon transport to depth is suppressed in the fully relative to the biogeochemically coupled simulations … The authors’ results indicate that estimates of the ocean carbon–climate feedback derived from “warming only” (radiatively coupled) simulations may underestimate the reduction of ocean carbon uptake in a warm climate high CO₂ world.”
690. Pierre Friedlingstein et al (2014) – Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks – Journal of Climate doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00579.1 – College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter – 7 autores
     “This paper analyzes the climate projections of 11 earth system models (ESMs) that performed both emission-driven and concentration-driven RCP8.5 simulations … Global surface temperature change by 2100 (relative to present day) increased by 3.9° ± 0.9°C for the emission-driven simulations compared to 3.7° ± 0.7°C in the concentration-driven simulations. Although the lower ends are comparable in both sets of simulations, the highest climate projections are significantly warmer in the emission-driven simulations because of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks.”
691. Daniel J. Rowlands et al (2012) – Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble – Nature Geoscience 5:256–260 doi:10.1038/ngeo1430 – Atmospheric, Oceanic & Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford – 25 authors
     “We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global-mean temperature increases of 1.4–3 K by 2050, relative to 1961–1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario … we conclude that warming by the middle of the twenty-first century that is stronger than earlier estimates is consistent with recent observed temperature changes and a mid-range ‘no mitigation’ scenario for greenhouse-gas emissions.”
692. Sonja van Renssen (2019) – Looking past the horizon of 2100 – Nature Climate Change 9:349–351 doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0466-0 – Freelance journalist, Brussels
     “If temperatures rise enough, humans may eventually bump up against a very different kind of adaptability limit, heat stress. “After 2100, we’re looking at potentially 5–6 °C of warming, even with some mitigation,” says Steven Sherwood, a specialist in atmospheric climate dynamics at the University of New South Wales.”
693. Richard E. Zeebe, Andy Ridgwell and James C. Zachos (2016) – Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years – Nature Geoscience 9:325–329 doi:10.1038/ngeo2681 – School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol; Department of Earth Sciences, University of California Riverside; Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz
     “Carbon release rates from anthropogenic sources reached a record high of ~10 Pg C yr⁻¹ in 2014 … We conclude that, given currently available records, the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years. We suggest that such a ‘no-analogue’ state represents a fundamental challenge in constraining future climate projections. Also, future ecosystem disruptions are likely to exceed the relatively limited extinctions observed at the PETM.»
694. Fiona Harvey – One climate crisis disaster happening every week, UN warns – The Guardian, 07/07/2019 – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/07/one-climate-crisis-disaster-happening-every-week-un-warns
     “Climate crisis disasters are happening at the rate of one a week, though most draw little international attention and work is urgently needed to prepare developing countries for the profound impacts, the UN has warned … This means that adapting to the climate crisis could no longer be seen as a long-term problem, but one that needed investment now, she said. “People need to talk more about adaptation and resilience.” Estimates put the cost of climate-related disasters at $520bn a year, while the additional cost of building infrastructure that is resistant to the effects of global heating is only about 3%, or $2.7tn in total over the next 20 years. ”
695. James Hansen et al (2020) – Global Temperature in 2019 – Columbia University, 15/01/2020 – Earth Institute, Columbia University; SciSpace LLC; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies – http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2020/20200115_Temperature2019.pdf – 6 authors
     “The 2019 global temperature was +1.2°C (~2.2°F) warmer than in the 1880-1920 base period; global temperature in that base period is a reasonable estimate of ‘pre-industrial’ temperature … Average warming over land is twice as large as over ocean, and warming is greatest in the Arctic … Average warming over land is now about 3°F (more than 1.5°C).”
696. Florian Sévellec and Sybren S. Drijfhout (2018) – A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend – Nature Communications 9:3024 doi:10.1038/s41467-018-05442-8 – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05442-8.pdf
     “Overall, PROCAST suggests that the current warm anomaly recorded in GMT and SST is expected to continue for up to the next 5 years … and even possibly for longer for SST. PROCAST shows better skill than DePreSys3 (the latest version of the operational Decadal Prediction System of the Met-Office), with extremely accurate reliability.”
697. James Hansen et al (2020) – Global Temperature in 2019 – Columbia University, 15/01/2020 – Earth Institute, Columbia University; SciSpace LLC; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies – http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2020/20200115_Temperature2019.pdf – 6 autores
     “If the melting rate continues to increase, the associated regional cooling will increase and may put a damper on (slow the rate of) global warming. That relative cooling effect, if it occurs, would be no cause for celebration, as it would imply an increased heat flux into the ocean, an increased warming rate within the ocean that further increases the melt of ice shelves, and an accelerating rate of sea level rise.”
698. Anna Barnett (2009) – No easy way out – Nature Reports Climate Change 3:128-129 doi:10.1038/climate.2009.106 – Assistant editor and copy editor at Nature Reports Climate Change. – http://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0911/full/climate.2009.106.html “’Policymakers are left between a rock and a hard place’, concludes [Kevin] Anderson. ‘Mitigating for 2 °C is much more challenging than was previously thought, but adapting to 4 °C is also extremely challenging,’ he says. ‘There is no easy way out.’.”
699. Steve Keen – Climate Change: Extinction or Adaptation? – Patreon, 13/10/2019 – Professor of Economics + Head of the School of Economics, Politics and History, Kingston University – https://www.patreon.com/posts/climate-change-30728029
     “In his Nobel lecture (Nordhaus 2018), Nordhaus described a 4°C increase over pre-industrial levels by the year 2140 as «optimal», in that it minimized the sum of the damages from Global Warming and the costs of abatement policies needed to contain it to 4°C (see Figure 2).”
700. Oren Cass (2017) – The Problem With Climate Catastrophizing – Foreign Affairs, 21/03/2017 – Manhattan Institute – http://www.orencass.com/files/170321-The%20Problem%20with%20Climate%20Catastrophizing%20(FA).pdf
     “What about ecology? … the IPCC offers a helpful heuristic for the likely magnitude of damage from climate change: “With 4°C warming, climate change is projected to become an increasingly important driver of impacts on ecosystems, becoming comparable with land-use change.” In other words … substantial and tragic, to be sure; but not something that modern society deems intolerable or a threat to human progress.”
701. Kevin Anderson (2014) – Is it time to ditch the target of keeping temperature rises to 2ºC? – KevinAnderson.info, 02/10/2014 – http://kevinanderson.info/blog/a-response-to-victor-kennels-commentary-ditch-the-2c-warming-goal/
     “Aim for 2°C but plan for 4°C”.
702. Rebecca Solnit (2010) – A Paradise Built in Hell: The Extraordinary Communities That Arise in Disaster – Penguin Books – ISBN-13: 978-0143118077 – 353 Págs.
     “Since postmodernism reshaped the intellectual landscape, it has been problematic to even use the term human nature, with its implication of a stable and universal human essence. The study of disasters makes it clear that there are plural and contingent natures—but the prevalent human nature in disaster is resilient, resourceful, generous, empathic, and brave. ”
703. Andreu Barnils – Salvador Macip: ‘Aquesta pandèmia no és la grossa’ – Vilaweb, 27/03/2020 – https://www.vilaweb.cat/noticies/salvador-macip-pandemia-no-grossa/
     “De pandèmies, n’hi continuarà havent, i potser són pitjors que aquesta, que ja és molt pitjor que la del 2009. Així i tot, aquesta pandèmia no és la grossa. Els virus sempre van canviant i poden adquirir característiques que els faci més agressius i crear més mortalitat. L’actual no és dels pitjors que podríem tenir. Ara imagineu-vos un virus que, en compte de tenir una mortalitat de l’1%, la tingués del 10%. Hem de ser conscients que això és possible. I que ara fem front a una crisi que podria ser més greu.”
704. Paul R. Ehrlich (1968) – The Population Bomb – Macmillan – Stanford University – ISBN-13: 978-0891908616 – 221 Págs.
     “The first three news stories in this scenario are genuine; the rest are based upon them. A similar scenario could have been constructed around the 1967 Marburgvirus incident. ”
705. David Quammen (2012) – Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic – Norton & Company – Three-time recipient of the National Magazine Award + Academy Award from the American Academy of Arts and Letters – ISBN-13: 978-0393066807 – 587 Págs.
     “The emergence of strange new diseases is a frightening problem that seems to be getting worse. In this age of speedy travel, it threatens a worldwide pandemic. We hear news reports of Ebola, SARS, AIDS, and something called Hendra killing horses and people in Australia but those reports miss the big truth that such phenomena are part of a single pattern. The bugs that transmit these diseases share one thing: they originate in wild animals and pass to humans by a process called spillover … What might the next big one be?”
706. Nicholas Troilo – Why David Quammen Is Not Surprised – Orion Magazine, 17/03/2020 – https://orionmagazine.org/2020/03/why-david-quammen-is-not-surprised/
     “The nightmare scenario, going back ten years at least, has been this: It will be a new virus, probably from one of the fast-evolving families (especially those SS-RNA viruses), such as the coronaviruses, that comes from an animal, gets into humans, transmits well human-to-human, spreads by silent or cryptic transmission (meaning that infected people may feel fine for a few days and be walking around, riding the subway, going to work, but are meanwhile shedding the virus), and kills at a relatively high case fatality rate. This outbreak ticks all those boxes. It is the nightmare scenario. If it spreads as widely and infects as many people as a seasonal flu, as it well might, it could kill twenty times as many people. ”
707. Rob Wallace (2017) – Big Farms Make Big Flu: Dispatches on Influenza, Agribusiness, and the Nature of Science – Monthly Review Press – Institute for Global Studies, University of Minnesota – ISBN-13: 978-1583675908 – 400 Págs.
     “Less well known are the deadly pathogens mutating in, and emerging out of, these specialized agro-environments. In fact, many of the most dangerous new diseases in humans can be traced back to such food systems, among them Campylobacter, Nipah virus, Q fever, hepatitis E, and a variety of novel influenza variants. Agribusiness has known for decades that packing thousands of birds or livestock together results in a monoculture that selects for such disease. But market economics doesn’t punish the companies for growing Big Flu – it punishes animals, the environment, consumers, and contract farmers.”
708. Yaak Pabst – Rob Wallace: «L’agronegoci està disposat a posar en risc de mort milions de persones» – Directa, 18/03/2020 – https://directa.cat/lagronegoci-esta-disposat-a-posar-en-risc-de-mort-milions-de-persones/
     “El veritable perill de cada nou brot és el fracàs, o millor dit, la negativa voluntària a intentar comprendre que cada nou COVID-19 no és un incident aïllat. L’augment de l’aparició de virus està estretament relacionat amb la producció d’aliments i la rendibilitat de les corporacions multinacionals. Qualsevol que pretengui comprendre per què els virus s’estan tornant més perillosos ha d’investigar el model industrial d’agricultura i, més específicament, la producció ramadera.”
709. Daniel R. Lucey et al (2017) – One health education for future physicians in the pan-epidemic “age of humans.” – International Journal of Infectious Diseases 64:1-3 doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2017.08.007 – Department of Medicine/Infectious Disease, Georgetown University – https://www.ijidonline.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1201-9712%2817%2930212-6 – 5 autores
     “We propose the term «pan-epidemic Anthropocene» to refer to multifocal infectious disease epidemics related to human-caused (anthropogenic) forces such as urbanization, globalization, industrialization and the growing populations of humans and animals. The integrated framework of One Health (human, animal, and environmental health) helps both to understand why epidemics occur when and where they do, and also how to respond, mitigate, and sometimes prevent them.”
710. The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB) – Un mundo en peligro: Informe anual sobre preparación mundial para las emergencias sanitarias – Organización Mundial de la Salud – 01/09/2019 – – https://apps.who.int/gpmb/assets/annual_report/GPMB_Annual_Report_Spanish.pdf – autores “Nos enfrentamos a la amenaza muy real de una pandemia fulminante, sumamente mortífera, provocada por un patógeno respiratorio que podría matar de 50 a 80 millones de personas y liquidar casi el 5% de la economía mundial. Una pandemia mundial de esa escala sería una catástrofe y desencadenaría caos, inestabilidad e inseguridad generalizadas. El mundo no está preparado. ”
711. Seth D. Baum et al (2019) – Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization – Foresight 21:53-83 doi:10.1108/FS-04-2018-0037. – Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, New York – https://bit.ly/2UxPPWQ
     “An important variable for catastrophe trajectories is the speed of the catastrophe. Some catastrophes could cause significant harm to human civilization in a short period of time such as nuclear wars or pandemics. Other catastrophes work more slowly such as global warming or the depletion of certain natural resources. Slow catastrophes give humans more time to adapt to the new conditions follows is written mainly with fast catastrophes in mind also apply to slow catastrophes.”
712. Boris A. Revich & Marina A. Podolnaya (2011) – Thawing of permafrost may disturb historic cattle burial grounds in East Siberia – Global Health Action 4:8482 doi:10.3402/gha.v4i0.8482 – Institute of Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow – https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.3402/gha.v4i0.8482?needAccess=true
     “Climate warming in the Arctic may increase the risk of zoonoses due to expansion of vector habitats, improved chances of vector survival during winter, and permafrost degradation … Frequent outbreaks of anthrax caused death of 1.5 million deer in Russian North between 1897 and 1925. Anthrax among people or cattle has been reported in 29,000 settlements of the Russian North, including more than 200 Yakutia settlements, which are located near the burial grounds of cattle that died from anthrax.”
713. Ugo Bardi – Italy: The Virus Hits Polluted Areas. Is There a Correlation? – Cassandra’s Legcay – – https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2020/03/italy-virus-hits-polluted-areas-is.html
     “Take a look at the picture above: the correlation of the virus diffusion with the most polluted areas of Italy seems evident. It is, of course, a hypothesis to be taken with plenty of caution, but it has some logic in it … it makes sense to think that the infection does more damage to the already weakened lungs of people affected by pollution. Indeed, I had already noted how epidemics tend to strike mostly populations already weakened by other factors, typically famines and wars — pollution is just another factor that has the same effect. According to the data, it may also be that the virus is carried by flying microparticles and that makes the infection spread faster.”
714. Wendy Barnaby (2002) – Fabricantes de epidemias: El mundo secreto de la guerra biológica – Siglo XXI de España Editores – Ex-presidenta de la Asociación Británica de Escritores de Ciencia – ISBN-13: 978-8432310997 – 229 Págs.
     “Concluye su libro con un llamamiento a los gobiernos y a los científicos para que abandonen su actitud acomodaticia y se enfrenten a esta amenaza terriblemente real, con el fin de convertir el mundo en un lugar más seguro.”
715. Vincent C. C. Cheng et al (2007) – Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus as an Agent of Emerging and Reemerging Infection – Clinical Microbiology Reviews 20:660–694 doi:10.1128/CMR.00023-07 – State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases, Department of Microbiology, Research Centre of Infection and Immunology, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region – https://cmr.asm.org/content/cmr/20/4/660.full.pdf – 4 autores
     “The medical and scientific community demonstrated marvelous efforts in the understanding and control of SARS within a short time, as evident by over 4,000 publications available online. Despite these achievements, gaps still exist … are well known to undergo genetic recombination (375), which may lead to new genotypes and outbreaks. The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored. ”
716. Jason R. Rohr et al (2019) – Emerging human infectious diseases and the links to global food production – Nature Sustainability 2:445–456 doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0293-3 – Department of Biological Sciences, Eck Institute for Global Health, and Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame – https://bit.ly/2vXtV5U – 15 autores
     “Our synthesis of the literature suggests that, since 1940, agricultural drivers were associated with >25% of all — and >50% of zoonotic — infectious diseases that emerged in humans, proportions that will likely increase as agriculture expands and intensifies. We identify agricultural and disease management and policy actions, and additional research, needed to address the public health challenge posed by feeding 11 billion people. ”
717.  David J. Civitello et al (2015) – Biodiversity inhibits parasites: broad evidence for the dilution effect – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 112:8667-8671 doi:10.1073/pnas.1915006117 – University of South Florida – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/112/28/8667.full.pdf – 11 autores
     “Although there can be exceptions, our results indicate that biodiversity generally decreases parasitism and herbivory. Consequently, anthropogenic declines in biodiversity could increase human and wildlife diseases and decrease crop and forest production.”
718. Christina L. Faust et al (2018) – Pathogen spillover during land conversion – Ecology Letters 21:471-483 doi:10.1111/ele.12904 – Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University + Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University + Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, Universtiy of Glasgow – 8 autores
     “Pathogen spillover from wildlife to domestic animals and humans, and the reverse, has caused significant epidemics and pandemics worldwide. Although pathogen emergence has been linked to anthropogenic land conversion, a general framework to disentangle underlying processes is lacking. We develop a multi‐host model … This framework provides insights into the mechanisms driving disease emergence and spillover during land conversion. The finding that the risk of spillover is highest at intermediate levels of habitat loss provides important guidance for conservation and public health policy.”
719. Daniel Bernabé – La propagación del coronavirus por Europa contra la narrativa centroeuropea derechista – Público, 28/03/2020 – https://blogs.publico.es/otrasmiradas/30966/la-propagacion-del-coronavirus-por-europa-contra-la-narrativa-centroeuropea-derechista/
     “Conclusión: el virus se expandió en Europa desde Alemania, con sus hombres de negocios, y desde el Reino Unido, con sus turistas ebrios, además desde Suiza, con sus banqueros y maletines. España e Italia tomaron medidas cuando creían saber qué buscar (síntomas del coronavirus) y dónde buscarlo (en China y, en el caso de España, en la propia Italia), pero no pudieron tener en cuenta que los centros del poder económico y financiero europeo, por lógica Berlín, Zurich y Londres, incluso sus propios directivos que viajaban a China, estaban expandiendo el virus al margen de los controles que se habían tomado.”
720. Ruiyun Li et al (2020) – Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) – Science 2020:eabb3221 doi:10.1126/science.abb3221 – MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London – https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2020/03/24/science.abb3221.full.pdf – 7 autores
     “We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.”
721. Frank Ackerman (2017) – Worst-Case Economics: Extreme Events in Climate and Finance – Anthem Press – http://www.umass.edu/economics/sites/default/files/Ackerman.pdf
     “Quantitative cost-benefit analysis fails for the most serious financial and climate risks because meaningful predictions for average or expected losses do not, and cannot, exist. The same may be true for other catastrophic threats as well. Different approaches are needed to extreme risk, and to making decisions without numbers – the subjects of the next two chapters.”
722. Dimitri Orlov (2013) – The Five Stages of Collapse – New Society Publishers – ISBN-13: 978-0865717367 – 288 Págs.
     “Games played directly against nature are never fair. You could say that nature always cheats: just as you are about to win the jackpot, the casino gets hit by an asteroid. You might think that such unlikely events are not significant, but it turns out that they are: Taleb’s black swans rule the world. Really, nature doesn’t so much cheat as not give a damn about your rules.” (p. 11)
723. Dimitri Orlov – The Sixth Stage of Collapse – Club Orlov, 22/10/2013 – http://cluborlov.blogspot.com.au/2013/10/the-sixth-stage-of-collapse.html
     “I admit it: in my last book, The Five Stages of Collapse, I viewed collapse through rose-colored glasses … Of course, there are problems even with this scenario. Take, for instance, the problem of Global Dimming … On such a planet, where the equatorial ocean is hotter than a hot tub and alligators thrive in the high Arctic, our survival as a species is far from assured.”
724. Andrew G. Huff et al (2015) – How resilient is the United States’ food system to pandemics? – Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences5:337–347 doi:10.1007/s13412-015-0275-3 – EcoHealth Alliance, New York – 4 autores
     “This study used a system dynamics model to demonstrate the likely effects of a pandemic on the USA’s food system. The model reveals that a severe pandemic with greater than a 25 % reduction in labor availability can create significant and widespread food shortages … the likely effects of the reduction in the amount of available food are difficult to specifically predict; however, it is likely to have severe negative consequences on society. The resilience of the food system must be improved against this hazard and others.”
725. Nueva enfermedad por coronavirus (COVID-19) – Organización de Naciones Unidas para la Alimentación y la Agricultura, 31/03/2020 – http://www.fao.org/2019-ncov/q-and-a/es/
     “A menos que se adopten con rapidez medidas para proteger a los más vulnerables, mantener operativas las cadenas mundiales de suministro de alimentos y mitigar los efectos de la pandemia en todo el sistema alimentario, nos enfrentamos a una crisis alimentaria inminente. Los cierres de fronteras, las cuarentenas y las interrupciones de los mercados, la cadena de suministro y el comercio podrían limitar el acceso de las personas a fuentes de alimentos suficientes, diversas y nutritivas, en especial en los países afectados duramente por el virus o ya afectados por altos niveles de inseguridad alimentaria. ”
726. Michael Snyder – Food Banks Warn They Will Soon Run Out Of Food As Economic Suffering Explodes All Over America – The Economic Collapse, 05/06/2020 – http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/food-banks-warn-they-will-soon-run-out-of-food-as-economic-suffering-explodes-all-over-america
     “In the days ahead, there will be economic ups and downs, and financial markets will continue to fluctuate wildly, but the truth is that the “good times” are gone for good. And remember, this coronavirus is just the beginning, and a lot more challenges are on the way. As “the perfect storm” unfolds, please don’t forget those that warned you about all of these things in advance. These are truly unprecedented times, and the level of economic suffering that we are already witnessing is off the charts. Sadly, the pain for ordinary Americans in only just getting started, and that is going to have enormous implications for our society as a whole. ”
727. Kelly Crowe – Fallout from coronavirus outbreak triggers 25% decrease in China’s carbon emissions – CBC, 28/02/2020 – https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/covid-19-coronavirus-climate-carbon-emissions-china-economy-1.5477466
     “A continent away, from his base in Helsinki, Finland, Lauri Myllyvirta was able to piece together industry and financial data sources and satellite imagery to calculate the epidemic’s impact on emissions: a decrease of about 25% in three weeks …  it is «no big surprise» that if a country shuts off its economy, then emissions go down.”
728. B.H. Samset et al (2018) – Climate impacts from a removal of anthropogenic aerosol emissions – Geophysical Research Letters 45:1020-1029 doi:10.1002/2017GL076079 – 08/01/2018 – CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo
     “Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5–1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0–4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near‐term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.”
729. Meinrat O. Andreae Chris D. Jones and Peter M. Cox (2005) – Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future – Nature 435:1187-1190 doi:10.1038/nature03671 – Max Planck Institute for Chemistry; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Winfrith, UK – http://irina.eas.gatech.edu/EAS_spring2006/Andreae2005.pdf
     “Part of the reason for this extraordinary sensitivity of future projections to the historical aerosol forcing is due to the impact of the carbon cycle feedback on projected CO₂ levels (Fig. 3b).”
730. James Lovelock (2006) – La venjança de la Terra – Columna Edicions Barcelona – ISBN: 978-84-6640792-2 – 260 Págs.
     “Fins no fa gaire acceptàvem que 1) l’evolució dels organismes té lloc segons l’evolució de Darwin i que 2) l’evolució del món material de roques, aire i oceans ho feia segons la geologia dels llibres de text.. Però la teoria de Gaia considera que aquestes dues evolucions, anteriorment interdependents, formen part d’una sola història terrestre on la vida i l’entorn físic es desenvolupen com una entitat única. Trobo útil pensar que allò que evoluciona son els nínxols i que els organismes en negocien l’ocupació.”
731. Leonardo Boff – Coronavirus: ¿Reacción y represalia de Gaia? – Revista de Frente, 18/03/2020 – http://revistadefrente.cl/coronavirus-reaccion-y-represalia-de-gaia-por-leonardo-boff/
     “No sin razón James Lovelock, el formulador de la teoría de la Tierra como un superorganismo vivo que se autorregula, Gaia, escribió un libro titulado La venganza de Gaia (Planeta 2006). Calculo que las enfermedades actuales como el dengue, el chikungunya, el virus zica, el sars, el ébola, el sarampión, el coronavirus actual y la degradación generalizada en las relaciones humanas, marcadas por una profunda desigualdad/injusticia social y la falta de una solidaridad mínima, son una reaacción, hasta una represalia de Gaia por las ofensas que le infligimos continuamente.”
732. Per Bak (1996) – How Nature Works: the science of self-organized criticality – Copernicus; Edición: 1st ed. 1996 – Physics Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory – ISBN-13: 978-0387987385 – 240 Págs.
     “Self-organized criticality can be viewed as the theoretical justification for catastrophism.” (p. 32)
733. Ugo Bardi (2017) – The Seneca Effect. Why Growth is Slow but Collapse is Rapid – Springer doi:10.1007/978-3-319-57207-9 – ISBN-13: 978-3319572062 – 217 Págs.
     “The final objective of the book is to describe a conclusion that the ancient stoic philosophers had already discovered long ago, but that modern system science has rediscovered today. If you want to avoid collapse you need to embrace change, not fight it. Neither a book about doom and gloom nor a cornucopianist’s dream, The Seneca Effect goes to the heart of the challenges that we are facing today, helping us to manage our future rather than be managed by it.»
734. Shijian Hu et al (2020) – Deep-reaching acceleration of global mean ocean circulation over the past two decades – Science Advances 6:eaax7727 doi:10.1126/sciadv.aax7727 – CAS Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology+ Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences + Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao) + University of Chinese Academy of Sciences – https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/6/6/eaax7727.full.pdf – 7 autores
     “Here, we show a statistically significant increasing trend in the globally integrated oceanic kinetic energy since the early 1990s, indicating a substantial acceleration of global mean ocean circulation … the recent acceleration is far larger than that associated with natural variability, suggesting that it is principally part of a long-term trend.”
735. Ernst F. Schumacher (1973) – Small is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered – Sphere Books – Oxford University + Chief Economic Advisor, UK National Coal Board- ISBN-13: 978-0060916305 – 352 Págs.
     “El hombre no se siente parte de la naturaleza, sino más bien como una fuerza externa destinada a dominarla y conquistarla. Aún habla de una batalla contra la naturaleza olvidándose que, en el caso de ganar, se encontraría él mismo en el bando perdedor.”
736. Timothy M. Lenton, Johan Rockström, Owen Gaffney, Stefan Rahmstorf, Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2019) – Íbid:
     “We argue that the intervention time left to prevent tipping could already have shrunk towards zero, whereas the reaction time to achieve net zero emissions is 30 years at best. Hence we might already have lost control of whether tipping happens. A saving grace is that the rate at which damage accumulates from tipping — and hence the risk posed — could still be under our control to some extent.”
737. Antonio Turiel – World Energy Outlook 2020: La dificultad de seguir engañándose – The Oil Crash – 14/10/2020 – – https://crashoil.blogspot.com/2020/10/world-energy-outlook-2020-la-dificultad.html
     “Aquí nos encontramos una frase interesante: «La industria del shale norteamericano ha cubierto el 60% del incremento de demanda de petróleo y gas natural del mundo durante los últimos 10 años, pero este crecimiento fue impulsado por el acceso al crédito fácil que ahora se ha secado». Todo un reconocimiento casi explícito de que el fracking fue una burbuja financiera que ahora ha explotado.”
738. Robert J. Brecha (2008) – Emission scenarios in the face of fossil-fuel peaking – Energy Policy 36:3492-3504 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.05.023 – Physics Department and Electro-optics Program, University of Dayton – http://campus.udayton.edu/~physics/rjb/Articles/Emissions%20scenarios%20and%20fossil-fuel%20peaking%20-%20final.pdf
     “The limited-fossil-fuel future described here, which is seen as unrealistically pessimistic by some, might be barely sufficient to limit CO2 concentrations to the doubling of pre-industrial levels that optimists hope might limit temperature and sea-level rise within an acceptable range, but goes somewhat above the limits set for holding to a 2 C global average temperature change, which roughly corresponds to a CO2 concentration of 450 ppm.”
739. Willem P. Nel and Christopher J. Cooper (2008) – Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming – Energy Policy 37:166-180 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.08.013 – Department of Geography, Environmental Management and Energy Studies, Institute for Energy Studies, University of Johannesburg
     “The range of scenarios presented for climate futures are not constrained by the possibility that the quantity of recoverable fossil carbon may rule out certain scenarios as physically unrealisable.”
740. J.H. Butler and S.A. Butler (2020) – The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Global Monitoring Laboratory, Earth System Research Laboratory – https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/
741. Mikael Höök, Anders Sivertsson and Kjell Aleklett (2010) – Validity of the fossil fuel production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios – Natural Resources Research 19:63-81 doi:10.1007/s11053-010-9113-1 – Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems, Department of physics and astronomy – https://imedea.uib-csic.es/master/cambioglobal/Modulo_I_cod101601/Ballabrera_Diciembre_2011/Articulos/Hook.2010.pdf
     “It is found that the SRES unnecessarily takes an overoptimistic stance and that future production expectations are leaning toward spectacular increases from present output levels. In summary, we can only encourage the IPCC to involve more resource experts and natural science in future emission scenarios. The current set, SRES, is biased toward exaggerated resource availability and unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels.”
742. Julie Rozenberg (2010) – Climate policies as a hedge against the uncertainty on future oil supply – Climatic Change 101:663-668 doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9868-8 – CIRED, France – http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10584-010-9868-8.pdf – 7 autores
     “Despite the inextricable link between oil scarcity and climate change (Toman 2002; Brown and Huntington 2008; Huntington and Brown 2004; Turton and Barreto 2006), the interplay between these two issues is paradoxically lacking a quantified analysis within a macroeconomic framework.”
743. Luca Chiari and Antonio Zecca (2011) – Constraints of fossil fuels depletion on global warming projections – Energy Policy 39:5026–5034 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.06.011 – Department of Physics, University of Trento
     “A scientific debate is in progress about the intersection of climate change with the new field of fossil fuels depletion geology … We find that CO2 concentration might increase up to about 480 ppm (445–540 ppm), while the global-mean temperature increase w.r.t. 2000 might reach 1.2 °C (0.9–1.6 °C). However, future improvements of fossil fuels recovery and discoveries of new resources might lead to higher emissions; hence our climatic projections are likely to be underestimated.”
744. James D. Ward et al (2012) – High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment – Energy Policy 51:598–604 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.003 – University of South Australia, School of Natural & Built Environments
     » The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century.”
745. Mikael Höök and Xu Tang (2013) – Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change – A review – Energy Policy 52:797–809 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.10.046 – Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems, Department of Earth Sciences; School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum – http://www.cup.edu.cn/peakoil/docs/20140408160524637170.pdf
     “It is concluded that the current set of emission scenarios used by the IPCC and others is perforated by optimistic expectations on future fossil fuel production that are improbable or even unrealistic. The current situation, where climate models largely rely on emission scenarios detached from the reality of supply and its inherent problems are problematic. In fact, it may even mislead planners and politicians into making decisions that mitigate one problem but make the other one worse.”
746. Iñigo Capellán Pérez, Margarita Mediavilla, Carlos de Castro, Oscar Carpintero, Luis Javier Miguel (2014) – Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach – Energy 77:641-666 doi:10.1016/j.energy.2014.09.063 – Low Carbon Programme, Instituto de Economía Pública, University of Basque Country
     “The results show that demand-driven evolution, as performed in the past, might be unfeasible … In order to find achievable scenarios, we are obliged to set hypotheses which are hardly used in GEA scenarios, such as zero or negative economic growth.”
747. Iñigo Capellán-Pérez et al (2016) – Likelihood of climate change pathways under uncertainty on fossil fuel resource availability – Energy & Environmental Science 9:2482-2496 doi:10.1039/c6ee01008c – Low Carbon Programme, Instituto de Economía Pública, University of Basque Country – 5 autores
     “Our results show that, by the end of the century, the two highest emission pathways from the IPCC, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP6 and RCP8.5, where the baseline scenarios currently lie, have probabilities of being surpassed of 42% and 12%, respectively. In terms of temperature change, the probability of exceeding the 2 °C level by 2100 remains very high (88%), confirming the need for urgent climate action.”
748. James W. Murray (2016) – Limitations of Oil Production to the IPCC Scenarios: The New Realities of US and Global Oil Production – BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality 1:13 doi:10.1007/s41247-016-0013-9 – School of Oceanography, University of Washington – https://bit.ly/3aZ5fMc
     “It is unlikely that the demand for oil production required for CO2 emissions in RCP8.5 and RCP6 will be met.”
749. Noah S. Diffenbaugh and Christopher B. Field (2013) – Changes in Ecologically Critical Terrestrial Climate Conditions – Science 341:486-492 doi:10.1126/science.1237123 – Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University + Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University; Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science – https://bit.ly/3q1ycvd
     “Here, we review the likelihood of continued changes in terrestrial climate … Inertia toward continued emissions creates potential 21st-century global warming that is comparable in magnitude to that of the largest global changes in the past 65 million years but is orders of magnitude more rapid. The rate of warming implies a velocity of climate change and required range shifts of up to several kilometers per year, raising the prospect of daunting challenges for ecosystems, especially in the context of extensive land use and degradation, changes in frequency and severity of extreme events, and interactions with other stresses.”
750. Lee R. Kump (2011) – The Last Great Global Warming – Scientific American, 29/06/2011 – http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-last-great-global-warming
     “Surprising new evidence suggests the pace of Earth’s most abrupt prehistoric warm-up paled in comparison with what we face today. The episode has lessons for our future.”
751. Ilya Prigogine (1977) – Time, Structure, and Fluctuations – Science 201:777-785 doi:10.1126/science.201.4358.777 – 01/09/1978 – Professor of physics and chemistry, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium + Director of the Instituts Internationaux de Physique et de Chimie (Solvay), Brussels + Professor of physics and chemical engineering and director of the Center for Statistical Mechanics and Thermodynamics, University of Texas, Austin – http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/chemistry/laureates/1977/prigogine-lecture.pdf
     “It is shown that nonequilibrium may become a source of order and that irreversible processes may lead to a new type of dynamic states of matter called «dissipative structures.» The thermodynamic theory of such structures is outlined.”
752. James Gleick (1987) – Chaos: Making a New Science – Penguin Books – ISBN: 0-14-00.9250-1 – 354 Págs.
     “Encara que l’atractor sigui caòtic, l’índole determinista del model permet predictibilitat.”
753. P. Catalina Chaparro-Pedraza, André M. de Roos (2020) – Ecological changes with minor effect initiate evolution to delayed regime shifts – Nature Ecology & Evolution doi:10.1038/s41559-020-1110-0 – Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam + Eawag—Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
     “Regime shifts have been documented in a variety of natural and social systems. These abrupt transitions produce dramatic shifts in the composition and functioning of socioecological systems … The change therefore does not cause an immediate regime shift but instead triggers an evolutionary process that drives a … regime shift. Our finding draws attention to the fact that regime shifts observed in the present may result from changes in the distant past.”
754. Marten Scheffer (2009) – Critical Transitions in Nature and Society – Princeton University Press – Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University – ISBN-13: 978-0691122045 – 400 Págs.
     “On a larger scale, the Earth system has evidently gone through rapid transitions between contrasting climatic conditions in the past, and it seems unlikely that similarly dramatic climate shifts would not happen in the future. And last, social systems are notorious for periods of relative inertia with occasional rapid transitions on scales varying from locally held opinions and attitudes to massive shifts such as the collapse of states and civilizations. In this book, I argue that such remarkable shifts can often be explained as so-called critical transitions.”
755. James E. Lovelock and Lynn Margulis (1974) – Homeostatic tendencies of the Earth’s atmosphere – Origins of life 5:93-103 doi:10.1007/BF00927016 – Department of Applied Physical Science, University of Reading; Department of Biology, Boston University
     ”We believe that these properties of the terrestrial atmosphere are best interpreted as evidence of homeostasis on a planetary scale maintained by life on the surface. Some possible mechanisms of this biological homeostasis have been noted and the implications of this concept for experimental studies pointed out.”
756. Timothy M. Lenton et al (2012) – Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness – Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 370:1185-1204 doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0304 – School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3261433/pdf/rsta20110304.pdf – 5 autores
     “We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached … Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out  … The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses.”
757. Sheila Jasanoff (2007) – Technologies of humility – Nature 450:33 doi:10.1038/450033a – Pforzheimer Professor of Science and Technology Studies, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University – https://www.nature.com/articles/450033a.pdf
     “The great mystery of modernity is that we think of certainty as an attainable state. Uncertainty has become the threat to collective action, the disease that knowledge must cure.”
758. Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, Ocean Studies Board, Polar Research Board, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council (2002) – Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises – National Academy of Sciences – http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?isbn=0309074347
     “What defines a climate change as abrupt? Technically, an abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to cross some threshold, triggering a transition to a new state at a rate determined by the climate system itself and faster than the cause. Chaotic processes in the climate system may allow the cause of such an abrupt climate change to be undetectably small.” (p. 14)
759. Symposium: From Biology To Cognitive Science .General Symposium on the Cultural Implications of the Idea of Emergence in the Fields of Biology, Cognitive Science, and Philosophy – En: William Irwin Thompson (Ed.) (1991), Gaia 2: Emergence, the new science of becoming, Lindisfarne Books, ISBN-13 : 978-0940262409
     “Francisco Varela: Francisco Varela: We have to distinguish between an emergent property and an emergent domain … to me an emergent domain is one that creates or specifies or gives rise to a new identity or a class of things. An absolutely dramatic case would be the emergence of the cell … I think that this distinction between property and domain is not a recipe, as far as I understand it, but is a sort of heuristic principle that has to be seen and analyzed in each particular case.” (p. 216,222)
760. Nicolas de Cusa (1440,2017) – La Docta Ignorancia – CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform – ISBN-13 : 978-1544756813 – 510 Págs.
     “La ignorancia de una mente infinita frente a una finitud no es la indiferencia. El reconocimiento de la ignorancia es una ignorancia instruida, docta. Sin embargo, la naturaleza intelectiva se siente atraída por conocer lo incomprensible. Es el retorno, nos atrae una natural pregustación que nos impulsa a seguir buscando. Tiene una aspiración hacia la sabiduría, hacia Dios, aun reconociendo que el sabio es ahora quien se percata de que no puede alcanzar a Dios, la plenitud del conocer. Dios es inaprensible, inalcanzable.”
761. Albert László Barabási and Jennifer Frangos (2002) – Linked: The New Science of Networks – Perseus Books – ISBN-13: 978-0738206677 – 288 Págs
     “Reseña del editor: The first book to explore the hot new science of networks and their impact on nature, business, medicine, and everyday life. }In the 1980’s, James Gleick’s Chaos introduced the world to complexity. Now, Albert- László Barabsi’s Linked reveals the next major scientific leap: the study of networks.”
762. Salvador Pueyo Puntí (2003) – Irreversibility and Criticality in the Biosphere – Departament d’Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona,  25/03/2003 – PhD Thesis – http://diposit.ub.edu/dspace/bitstream/2445/35290/1/TESIPUEYO.pdf
     “This work is the result of a search for general (or nearly general) regularities at ecosystem level, and an exploration of their practical relevance in our relations with the environment … The possible generalization of the findings on wildland fires to other kinds of catastrophes, with emphasis on agricultural pests and epidemics … I conclude with a discussion on the interest of my and other related findings from the point of view of ecological economics.”
763. Rashad Eletreby et al (2020) – The effects of evolutionary adaptations on spreading processes in complex networks – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1918529117 – Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/117/11/5664.full.pdf – 5 autores
     “In real-life spreading processes, pathogens often evolve in response to changing environments and medical interventions, and information is often modified by individuals before being forwarded. In this article, we investigate the effects of evolutionary adaptations on spreading processes in complex networks.
764.  Timothy M. Lenton et al (2008) – Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 105:1786-1793 doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105 – School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia + Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research – http://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.full.pdf – 7 autores
765. Timothy M. Lenton et al (2008) – Íbid.
     “We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms.”
766. Elmar Kriegler et al (2009) – Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 106:5041-5046 doi:10.1073/pnas.0809117106 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) – http://www.pnas.org/content/106/13/5041.full.pdf+html   5 autores
     “Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy.”
767. Ferran Puig Vilar (2014) – Percepciones humanas de los sistemas naturales y económicos – https://ustednoselocree.com/2014/12/27/hasta-que-punto-es-inminente-el-colapso-de-la-civilizacion-actual-3/ – Citado en Jorge Riechmann (2020) – Otro fin del mundo es posible, decían los compañeros – MRA Ediciones – Profesor titular de Filosofía Moral, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid – ISBN-13: 978-8496504363 – pp. 90-91. Nótese que Riechmann, además de doctor de filosofía, es licenciado en matemáticas y está así adecuadamente calificado para comprender estos entresijos.
768. Renée van Diemen et al (2019) – Climate Change and Land (SRCCL). Glossary – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/08/2a.-Glossary_FINAL.pdf – 19 autores
     “Tipping point: A level of change in system properties beyond which a system reorganises, often abruptly, and does not return to the initial state even if the drivers of the change are abated. For the climate system, it refers to a critical threshold beyond which global or regional climate changes from one stable state to another stable state. Tipping points are also used when referring to impact: the term can imply that an impact tipping point is (about to be) reached in a natural or human system. ”
769. Timothy M. Lenton (2011) – Early warning of climate tipping points – Nature Climate Change 1:201–209 doi:10.1038/nclimate1143 – College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter + UK and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia – http://www.slideshare.net/Stepscentre/tim-lenton-early-warning-of-climate-tipping-points
     «Conclusion: 1) Tipping elements in the climate system could be triggered this century by anthropogenic forcing; 2) The Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets probably represent the largest risks; 3) Some tipping points can be anticipated in principle, but sufficiently high-resolution, long records are often lacking; 4) A change in the number of climate states can be detected, in a noisy climate system that is moving between states; 5) Improved understanding is needed to help policy makers “avoid the unmanageable and manage the unavoidable”
770. Timothy M. Lenton (2011) – Íbid.
771. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Stefan Rahmstorf & Ricarda Winkelmann (2016) – Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris – Nature Climate Change 6:649–653 doi:10.1038/nclimate3013 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research + Santa Fe Institute
     “Yet, staying within the Paris target range, the overall Earth system dynamics would remain largely intact. Progressing into  … global warming reaching 3–5 °C, would seriously harm most tipping elements. For warming levels beyond this range (spanning the fourth domain D8), the world as we know it would be bound to disappear.”
772. E.J. Rohling et al (2012) – Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity – Nature 491:683–691 doi:10.1038/nature11574 – PALAEOSENS Project Members – http://www.purdue.edu/discoverypark/climate/assets/pdfs/Making%20sense%20of%20palaeoclimate%20sensitivity.pdf  – 35 autores
     “The timescale over which climate sensitivity is considered is critical. An operationally pragmatic decision is needed to categorize a process as ‘slow’ or ‘fast’, depending on the timescale of interest, the resolution of the (palaeo-)records considered and the character of changes therein19. If a process results in temperature changes that reach steady state slower than the timescale of the underlying radiative perturbation, then it is considered ‘slow’; if it is faster or coincident, then it is ‘fast’ … For the present, the relevant timescale for distinguishing between fast and slow processes can be taken as 100 yr (ref. 23).”
773. Philippe Ciais, Christopher Sabine et al (2013) – Climate Change 2013. Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles – Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report – Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis – http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter06.pdf  – 101 autores
     “Processes missing in terrestrial carbon cycle models. First, many models do not explicitly take into account the various forms of disturbances or ecosystem dynamics: migration, fire, logging, harvesting, insect outbreaks and the resulting variation in forest age structure which is known to affect the net carbon exchange [refs]. Second, many key processes relevant to decomposition of carbon are missing in models [refs], and particularly for permafrost carbon and for carbon in boreal and tropical wetlands and peatlands, despite the large amount of carbon stored in these ecosystems and their vulnerability to warming and land use change (Tarnocai et al., 2009; Hooijer et al., 2010; Page et al., 2011) …  Third, nutrient dynamics are only taken into account by few models … Fourth, the negative effects of elevated tropospheric ozone on NPP have not been taken into account by most of current carbon cycle models [refs]. Fifth, transfer of radiation, water and heat in the vegetation-soil-atmosphere continuum are treated very simply in the global ecosystem models. Finally, process that transport carbon at the surface (e.g., water and tillage erosion [ref] and human managements including fertilization and irrigation [ref] are poorly or not represented at all. Broadly, models are still at their early stages in dealing with land use, land use change, and forestry.” (p. 504)
774. Robert J. Allen et al (2019) – Enhanced land–sea warming contrast elevates aerosol pollution in a warmer world – Nature Climate Change doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0401-4 – Department of Earth Sciences, University of California, Riverside
     “Many climate models simulate an increase in anthropogenic aerosol species in response to warming … simulations that only feature land warming yield enhanced continental aridity and an increase in aerosol burden. Thus, unless anthropogenic emission reductions occur, our results add confidence that a warmer world will be associated with enhanced aerosol pollution.»
775. P. Winiger et al (2019) – Source apportionment of circum-Arctic atmospheric black carbon from isotopes and modeling – Science Advances5:eaau8052 doi:10.1126/sciadv.aau8052 – ACES—Department of Applied Environmental Science and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University – https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/5/2/eaau8052.full.pdf  – 19 autores
     “Black carbon (BC) contributes to Arctic climate warming, yet source attributions are inaccurate due to lacking observational constraints and uncertainties in emission inventories …  These sources were dominated by emissions from fossil fuel combustion in the winter and by biomass burning in the summer … Comparison of transport-model predictions with the observations showed good agreement for BC concentrations, with larger discrepancies for (fossil/biomass burning) sources …  provides strong justification for targeted emission reductions to limit the impact of BC on climate warming in the Arctic and beyond.»
776. J.E. Box et al (2012) – Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers – The Cryosphere 6:821-839 doi:10.5194/tc-6-821-2012 – Department of Geography + Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University – http://bprc.osu.edu/~jbox/temp/Box%20et%20al.%202012%20-%20TCD%20-%20resubmitted%20after%20review%20round%202.pdf – 6 autores
     “Greenland ice sheet mass loss has accelerated in the past decade responding to combined glacier discharge and surface melt water runoff increases. During summer, absorbed solar energy, modulated at the surface primarily by albedo, is the dominant factor governing surface melt variability in the ablation area.”
777. Maosheng Zhao and Steven W. Running (2010) – Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009 – Refutat a Samantha et al 2011 – Science 329:940-943 doi:10.1126/science.1192666 – Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, the University of Montana
     “The past decade (2000 to 2009) has been the warmest since instrumental measurements began, which could imply continued increases in NPP [net primary productivity]; however, our estimates suggest a reduction in the global NPP of 0.55 petagrams of carbon. Large-scale droughts have reduced regional NPP, and a drying trend in the Southern Hemisphere has decreased NPP in that area, counteracting the increased NPP over the Northern Hemisphere. A continued decline in NPP would not only weaken the terrestrial carbon sink, but it would also intensify future competition between food demand and proposed biofuel production.”
778. R. Wanninkhof et al (2013) – Global ocean carbon uptake: magnitude, variability and trends – Biogeosciences 10:1983-2000 doi:10.5194/bg-10-1983-2013 – Ocean Chemistry Division, NOAA/AOML – http://www.biogeosciences.net/10/1983/2013/bg-10-1983-2013.pdf – 15 autores “Methods capable of resolving shorter timescales are showing a slowing of the rate of ocean CO2 uptake. It is not clear if this large difference in trend is a methodological issue or a real natural feedback.”
779. James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha and Makiko Sato (2013) – Climate forcing growth rates: doubling down on our Faustian bargain – Environmental Research Letters 8 011006 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/011006 – Goddard Institute for Space Studies + Columbia Earth Institute – http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/011006/pdf/1748-9326_8_1_011006.pdf
     “An important question is whether ocean and terrestrial carbon sinks will tend to saturate as human-made CO2 emissions continue. Piao et al (2008) and Zhao and Running (2010) suggest that there already may be a reduction of terrestrial carbon uptake, while Le Quéré et al (2007) and Schuster and Watson (2007) find evidence of decreased carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean, respectively. However, others (Knorr 2009, Sarmiento et al 2010, Ballantyne et al 2012) either cast doubt on the reality of a reduced uptake strength or find evidence for increased uptake.”
780. Kiona Ogle (2020) – Hyperactive soil microbes might weaken the terrestrial carbon sink – Nature 560:32-33 doi:10.1038/d41586-018-05842-2 – School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems + Department of Biology and the Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University
     “The terrestrial land surface has a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, providing feedbacks to changes in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and associated climate … If the observed trend continues, then respiration by microbes could contribute substantially to global warming by releasing CO2 from organic matter that has previously been stored in soil for decades to millennia.”
781. Joachim Segschneider and Jørgen Bendtsen (2013) – Temperature-dependent remineralization in a warming ocean increases surface pCO2 through changes in marine ecosystem composition – Global Biogeochemical Cycles 27:1214-1225 doi: 10.1002/2013GB004684 – Max Planck Institute for Meteorology + Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen; ClimateLab, Copenhagen – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2013GB004684
     “The result is a modest change of organic carbon export but also derived effects associated with feedback processes between changed nutrient concentrations and ecosystem structure … With regard to future climate projections, the results indicate a reduction of oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 of about 0.2 PgC yr⁻¹ toward the end of the 21st century in addition to reductions caused by already identified climate‐carbon cycle feedbacks.”
782. Carolyn D. Ruppel and John D. Kessler (2017) – The interaction of climate change and methane hydrates – Reviews of Geophysics 55:126-168 doi:10.1002/2016RG000534 – US Geological Survey, Woods Hole – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2016RG000534
     “Gas hydrate, a frozen, naturally‐occurring, and highly‐concentrated form of methane, sequesters significant carbon in the global system and is stable only over a range of low‐temperature and moderate‐pressure conditions … There is no conclusive proof that hydrate‐derived methane is reaching the atmosphere now, but more observational data and improved numerical models will better characterize the climate‐hydrate synergy in the future.”
783. Werner A. Kurz and Michael J. Apps (1999) – A 70-year retrospective analysis of carbon fluxes in the Canadian forest sector – Ecological Applications :526–547 doi:10.1890/1051-0761(1999)009[0526:AYRAOC]2.0.CO;2 – ESSA Technologies Ltd; Department of Natural Resources Canada
     “The resulting changes in dead organic matter and biomass carbon during this period were estimated with the model. In the last decade of the analysis, large increases in disturbances, primarily fire and insect damage, have resulted in a reduction in ecosystem carbon storage … ecosystem carbon pools over the 70‐yr period was hardly affected and that the numerical estimates changed by <15%.”
784. Stephen Leahy – Climate change driving entire planet to dangerous ‘tipping point‘ – National Geographic, 27/11/2019 – https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/11/earth-tipping-point/
     “A cascade of tipping points could amount to a global tipping point, where multiple earth systems march past the point of no return, they say. That possibility is “an existential threat to civilization,” write Tim Lenton and colleagues in this week’s Nature … “The stability and resilience of our planet is in peril,” they say. “It’s a nasty shock that tipping points we thought might happen well into the future are already underway,” says Lenton in an interview.”
785. Michael Oppenheimer (2005) – Defining Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference: The Role of Science, the Limits of Science – Risk Analysis 25:1399-1407 doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00687.x – Woodrow Wilson School and Department of Geosciences, Princeton University
     “The post-normal science framework … provides an alternative view of such risk assessment … one could assert that Article 2, through its injunction to achieve “stabilization of greenhouse gases concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” frames the question of danger in a manner that invites the scientific search for thresholds.”
786. Juan C. Rocha et al (2018) – Cascading regime shifts within and across scales – Science 362:1379-1383 doi:10.1126/science.aat7850 – Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University + Beijer Institute, Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences – https://bit.ly/3rbEpWY – 4 autores
     “Regime shifts are large, abrupt, and persistent critical transitions in the function and structure of ecosystems … we show that 45% of regime shift pairwise combinations present at least one plausible structural interdependence. The likelihood of cascading effects depends on cross-scale interactions but differs for each type. Management of regime shifts should account for potential connections.»
787. Jonathan Krönke et al (2020) – Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks – Physical Review E 101:042311 doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.101.042311 – Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association + Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam – 7 autores
     “Tipping points occur in diverse systems in various disciplines such as ecology, climate science, economy, and engineering …  We find that clustering and spatial organization increase the vulnerability of networks and can lead to tipping of the whole network.”
788. Tiffany M. Knight et al (2005) – Trophic cascades across ecosystems – Nature 437:880–883 doi:10.1038/nature03962 – Department of Zoology, University of Florida + Department of Biology, Washington University – https://bit.ly/3b3yAFe – 5 autores
     “Our results confirm that strong species interactions can reverberate across ecosystems, and emphasize the importance of landscape-level processes in driving local species interactions.
789. Michael Marshall – There Is A Real Risk That Earth’s Climate Could Run Out Of Control – Forbes, 07/08/2018 – https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelmarshalleurope/2018/08/07/there-is-a-real-risk-that-earths-climate-could-run-out-of-control/
     “The rationale behind this was that 2 °C of warming was relatively safe: it would cause a lot of disruption … but this would all be manageable. In contrast, a warming of 4 °C would be extremely damaging … too much to cope with, even for our advanced global society. The problem is that 2 °C of warming might not be safe after all, because heating the planet up that much might trigger positive feedbacks that cause even more warming. So even if we only put out enough greenhouse gases to cause 2 °C of warming, the Earth might then end up 4 °C without any more push from us.”
790. S.I. Rasool and C. De Bergh (1970) – The Runaway Greenhouse and the Accumulation of CO2 in the Venus Atmosphere – Nature 226:1037 doi:10.1038/2261037a0 – Institute for Space Studies, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA – http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1970/1970_Rasool_DeBergh.pdf
     “Conditions on Earth would be as hostile as on Venus if the Earth were closer to the Sun by only 6-10 million miles.”
791. Hans Joachim Schellnhüber (2018) – Foreword – En: David Spratt and Brian Dunlop, What Lies Beneath: The Understatement of Climate Existential Risk – National Center for Climate Restoration – http://climateextremes.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/What-Lies-Beneath-V3-LR-Blank5b15d.pdf
     “Out-of-the-box thinking is vital given the unprecedented climate risks which now confront human civilisation … Climate change is now reaching the end-game, where very soon humanity must choose between taking unprecedented action, or accepting that it has been left too late and bear the consequences. Therefore, it is all the more important to listen to non-mainstream voices who do understand the issues and are less hesitant to cry wolf. Unfortunately for us, the wolf may already be in the house. ”
792. Nick Breeze – It’s nonlinearity – stupid! – The Ecologist, 03/01/2019 – https://theecologist.org/2019/jan/03/its-nonlinearity-stupid
     “Schellnhuber: Okay, if we get I wrong, do the wrong things, policy, economics and psychology, in science, then I think there is a very big risk that we will just end our civilisation. The human species will survive somehow but we will destroy almost everything we have built up over the last two thousand years. I am pretty sure … it can happen pretty soon and pretty quickly … so, it is all about nonlinearity.”
793. Joanna Roberts – ‘I would like people to panic’ – Top scientist unveils equation showing world in climate emergency – Horizon Magazine, 24/09/2019 – https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/i-would-people-panic-top-scientist-unveils-equation-showing-world-climate-emergency.html
     “Hans Joachim Schellnhuber: ‘If we don’t solve the climate crisis, we can forget about the rest.’.»
794. Timothy M. Lenton et al (2008) – Íbid:
     “We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and … An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.”
795. Elmar Kriegler et al (2009) – Íbid:
     “They allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above … We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2–4 °C), and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 °C) relative to year 2000 levels.”
796. Timothy M. Lenton, Johan Rockström, Owen Gaffney, Stefan Rahmstorf, Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2019) – Íbid.
     “Politicians, economists and even some natural scientists have tended to assume that tipping points1 in the Earth system — such as the loss of the Amazon rainforest or the West Antarctic ice sheet — are of low probability and little understood. Yet evidence is mounting that these events could be more likely than was thought, have high impacts and are interconnected across different biophysical systems, potentially committing the world to long-term irreversible changes. Here we summarize evidence on the threat of exceeding tipping points … In our view, the consideration of tipping points helps to define that we are in a climate emergency.”
797. Timothy M. Lenton, Johan Rockström, Owen Gaffney, Stefan Rahmstorf, Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2019) – Íbid
     “As well as undermining our life-support system, biosphere tipping points can trigger abrupt carbon release back to the atmosphere. This can amplify climate change and reduce remaining emission budgets. ”
798. Mario Molina, Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Durwood J. Zaelke (2018) – Íbid.
     “By largely ignoring such feedbacks, the IPCC report fails to adequately warn leaders about the cluster of six similar climate tipping points that could be crossed between today’s temperature and an increase to 1.5 degrees—let alone nearly another dozen tipping points between 1.5 and 2 degrees. These wildcards could very likely push the climate system beyond human ability to control. As the UN Secretary General reminded world leaders last month, “We face an existential threat. Climate change is moving faster than we are.… If we do not change course by 2020, we risk missing the point where we can avoid runaway climate change, with disastrous consequences….”
799. V. Ramanathan, M. L. Molina, D. Zaelke et al (2017) – Íbid:
     “Foreword (Paul Crutzen): Climate change is becoming an existential threat with warming in excess of 2°C within the next three decades and 4°C to 6°C within the next several decades. Warming of such magnitudes will expose as many as 75% of the world’s population to deadly heat stress in addition to disrupting the climate and weather worldwide. Climate change is an urgent problem requiring urgent solutions. ”
800. V. Ramanathan, M. L. Molina, D. Zaelke et al (2017) – Íbid:
     “Warming in the range of 3°C to 5°C is suggested as the threshold for several tipping points in the physical and geochemical systems; a warming of about 3°C has a probability of over 40% to cross over multiple tipping points, while a warming close to 5°C increases it to nearly 90%, compared with a baseline warming of less than 1.5°C, which has only just over a 10% probability of exceeding any tipping point.”
801. V. Ramanathan, M. L. Molina, D. Zaelke et al (2017) – Íbid:
     “Foreword (Paul Crutzen): Nevertheless, despite the best effort of the autores to make an understandable and convincing case, I’m very concerned that humanity collectively will not be wise enough to follow the straightforward solutions to the extent laid out here.”
802. David Schimel, Britton B. Stephens, and Joshua B. Fisher (2015) – Effect of increasing CO2 on the terrestrial carbon cycle – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 112:436-44 doi:10.1073/pnas.1407302112 – Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology + Earth Observing Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/112/2/436.full.pdf
     “Feedbacks from the terrestrial carbon cycle significantly affect future climate change. The CO2 concentration dependence of global terrestrial carbon storage is one of the largest and most uncertain feedbacks … This feedback will have substantial tropical contributions, but the magnitude of future carbon uptake by tropical forests also depends on how they respond to climate change and requires their protection from deforestation.”
803. Daniel H. Rothman (2019) – Characteristic disruptions of an excitable carbon cycle – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 116: 14813-14822 doi:10.1073/pnas.1905164116 – 08/07/2019 – Lorenz Center, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
     “I formulate and analyze a mathematical model that suggests that disruptions are initiated by perturbation of a permanently stable steady state beyond a threshold. The ensuing excitation exhibits the characteristic surge of real disruptions. In this view, the magnitude and timescale of the disruption are properties of the carbon cycle itself rather than its perturbation. Surges associated with mass extinction, however, require additional inputs from external sources such as massive volcanism. Surges are excited when CO2 enters the oceans at a flux that exceeds a threshold. The threshold depends on the duration of the injection … the unusually strong but geologically brief duration of modern anthropogenic oceanic CO2 uptake is roughly equivalent, in terms of its potential to excite a major disruption, to relatively weak but longer-lived perturbations associated with massive volcanism in the geologic past.”
804. Daniel H. Rothman (2019) – Íbid:
     “Finally, there is an important caveat. Since the carbon-cycle model applies only to timescales greater than that of ocean mixing [about 1,000 y (2, 3)], it does not necessarily inform understanding of phenomena at timescales shorter than 1,000 y. However, if the addition of CO2 to the oceans were not appreciably damped at submillenial timescales by processes not discussed here, the reasoning outlined above would remain valid at these short timescales. ”
805. L.R. Hutyra et al (2005) – Climatic variability and vegetation vulnerability in Amazonia – Geophysical Research Letters – Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University + Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2005GL024981 – 6 autores
     “We found that drought frequency is an excellent predictor of the forest‐savanna boundary, indicating the key role of extreme climatic events for inducing vegetation change, and highlighting particularly vulnerable regions of Amazônia.»
806. Marcos Daisuke Oyama and Carlos Afonso Nobre (2003) – A new climate-vegetation equilibrium state for Tropical South America – Geophysical Research Letters 13:2199 doi:10.1029/2003GL018600 – 05/12/2003 – Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais + Currently at Centro Técnico Aeroespacial, Instituto de Aeronáutica e Espaço, Brazil
     “The existence of multiple climate‐vegetation equilibria in Tropical South America is investigated under present‐day climate conditions with the use of an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a potential vegetation model. Two stable equilibria were found. One corresponds to the current biome distribution. The second is a new equilibrium state: savannas replace eastern Amazonian forests and a semi‐desert area appears in the driest portion of Northeast Brazil.”
807. Givan Sampaio et al (2018) – Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion – Geophysical Research Letters 34: L17709 doi:10.1029/2007GL030612 – Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, Brazilian Space Research Institute, Cachoeira Paulista – https://bit.ly/3dV7yBW – 6 autores
     “In this study we employed the CPTEC-INPE AGCM to assess the effects of Amazonian deforestation on the regional climate …  The relationship between precipitation and deforestation shows an accelerating decrease of rainfall for increasing deforestation for both classes of land use conversions … The reduction in precipitation in this region is more evident when deforestation exceeds 40% of the original forest cover.”
808. Thomas E. Lovejoy and Carlos Nobre (2019) – Amazon tipping point: Last chance for action – Science Advance 5:eaba2949 doi:10.1126/sciadv.aba2949 – Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University; Brazilian Academy of Sciences + Senior Fellow of World Resources Institute Brazil – https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/5/12/eaba2949.full.pdf
     “The loss of forest will lead to staggering losses of biodiversity, carbon, and, in turn, human well-being … Current deforestation is substantial and frightening: 17% across the entire Amazon basin and approaching 20% in the Brazilian Amazon. Already, there are ominous signals of it in nature.”
809. Thomas E. Lovejoy and Carlos Nobre (2018) – Amazon Tipping Point – Science Advances 4:2 doi:10.1126/sciadv.aat2340 – Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University; Brazilian Academy of Sciences + Senior Fellow of World Resources Institute Brazil – https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/4/2/eaat2340.full.pdf
     “We believe that negative synergies between deforestation, climate change, and widespread use of fire indicate a tipping point for the Amazon system to flip to non-forest ecosystems in eastern, southern and central Amazonia at 20-25% deforestation. The severity of the droughts of 2005, 2010 and 2015-16 could well represent the first flickers of this ecological tipping point. These events, together with the severe floods of 2009, 2012 (and 2014 over SW Amazonia), suggest that the whole system is oscillating.”
810. Philip M. Fearnside (2020) – BR-319: The beginning of the end for Brazil’s Amazon forest (commentary) – Mongabay, 03/11/2020 – – https://news.mongabay.com/2020/11/br-319-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-brazils-amazon-forest-commentary/
     “Brazil’s planned reconstruction of the BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho) Highway paralleling the Purus and Madeira rivers would give deforesters access to about half of what remains of the country’s Amazon forest, and so is perhaps the most consequential conservation issue for Brazil today. The highway route is essentially a lawless area today, and the lack of governance is a critical issue in the battle over licensing the highway reconstruction project.”
811. Salvador Pueyo et al (2010) – Testing for criticality in ecosystem dynamics: the case of Amazonian rainforest and savanna fire – Ecology Letters 13:793–802 doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01497.x – Institut Català de Ciències del Clima – 6 autores
     “While the above-mentioned models predict a delay of decades to centuries between committed and actual forest loss [ref], critical transitions of the kind that we suggest in this paper are likely to reduce this delay and cause a stepwise rather than a continuous loss … In rainforests, we found evidence of a different type of critical phenomenon: critical transitions. If the Amazonian rainforest is to be lost to climate change as some models suggest, the process is likely to take the form of a series of critical transitions. ”
812. Vinícius Andrade Maia et al (2020) – The carbon sink of tropical seasonal forests in southeastern Brazil can be under threat – Science Advances 6:eabd4548 doi:10.1126/sciadv.abd4548 – Departamento de Ciências Florestais, Universidade Federal de Lavras – https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/6/51/eabd4548.full.pdf – 24 autores
     “Tropical forests have played an important role as a carbon sink over time. However … Our results highlight a long-term decline in the net carbon sink (0.13 Mg C ha−1 year−1) caused by decreasing carbon gains (2.6% by year) and increasing carbon losses (3.4% by year). The driest and warmest sites are experiencing the most severe carbon sink decline and have already moved from carbon sinks to carbon sources.”
813. Gert-Jan Nabuurs et al (2013) – First signs of carbon sink saturation in European forest biomass – Nature Climate Change 3:792–796 doi:10.1038/nclimate1853 – Alterra, Wageningen University and Research – https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/254e/5b485e231e0193986743db9ff2fa940f3271.pdf – 7 autores
     “European forests are seen as a clear example of vegetation rebound in the Northern Hemisphere; recovering in area and growing stock since the 1950s, after centuries of stock decline and deforestation … We argue that three warnings of saturation of the European forest biomass carbon sink can already be observed, after decades of increasing sink strength [refs]. First, the stem volume increment rate is decreasing and thus the sink is curbing after decades of increase. Second, land use is intensifying, thereby leading to deforestation and associated carbon losses. Third, natural disturbances are increasing and, as a consequence, so are the emissions of CO2.”
814. Alison M. Hoyt et al (2020) – Widespread subsidence and carbon emissions across Southeast Asian peatlands – Nature Geoscience 13:435–440 doi:10.1038/s41561-020-0575-4 – Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry + Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – 4 autores
     “Over the last three decades, most of the 25 million hectares of tropical peatlands in Southeast Asia have been deforested and drained. As a consequence, declining water tables are exposing peat to oxidation, converting plant material accumulated over millennia to carbon dioxide, and causing land subsidence … we use remotely sensed maps to update IPCC emissions factors and calculate regional CO2 emissions from peat oxidation of 155 ± 30 MtC yr−1 in 2015, similar in magnitude to both regional fossil-fuel emissions and peat fires.”
815. Xanthe J. Walker et al (2019) – Increasing wildfires threaten historic carbon sink of boreal forest soils – Nature 572:520–523 doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1474-y – Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University – 12 autores
     «Boreal forest fires emit large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere primarily through the combustion of soil organic matter … We found no evidence for the combustion of legacy carbon in forests that were older than the historic fire-return interval of northwestern boreal forests … [This] implies a shift to a domain of carbon cycling in which these forests become a net source—instead of a sink—of carbon to the atmosphere over consecutive fires. As boreal wildfires continue to increase in size, frequency and intensity7, the area of young forests that experience legacy carbon combustion will probably increase and have a key role in shifting the boreal carbon balance.”
816. David Schimel, Britton B. Stephens, and Joshua B. Fisher (2015) – Effect of increasing CO2 on the terrestrial carbon cycle – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 112:436-44 doi: – Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology + Earth Observing Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/112/2/436.full.pdf –
     “The CO2 effect likely acts as a significant negative feedback in today’s global carbon cycle, absorbing up to 30% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Uncertainty in the strength of this effect contributes significant variability to projections of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations ”
817. R.J.W. Brienen et al (2015) – Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink – Nature 19:344-348 doi:10.1038/nature14283 – School of Geography, University of Leeds – <a href=»https://bit.ly/2lYb4Ci»>https://bit.ly/2lYb4Ci</a&gt; – 92 autores «We find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s … The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale1, 2, and is contrary to expectations based on models [ref].»
818. Wannes Hubau et al (2020) – Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests – Nature 579:80–87 doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2035-0 – School of Geography, University of Leeds + Service of Wood Biology, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Belgium + Department of Environment, Laboratory of Wood Technology (Woodlab), Ghent University – https://bit.ly/3c6TEtT – 106 autores
     “By 2030 the carbon sink in aboveground live biomass in intact African tropical forest is predicted to decline by 14% from the measured 2010–15 mean to 0.57 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 (2σ range, 0.16–0.96; Fig. 3). The Amazon sink continues to rapidly decline, reaching zero in 2035”
819. Wannes Hubau et al (2020) – Íbidem
     “Given that the intact tropical forest carbon sink is set to end sooner than even the most pessimistic climate-driven vegetation models predict4,5, our analyses suggest that climate change impacts in the tropics may become more severe than predicted. Furthermore, the carbon balance of intact tropical forests will only stabilize once CO2 concentrations and the climate stabilizes.”
820. Katharyn A. Duffy et al (2021) – How close are we to the temperature tipping point of the terrestrial biosphere? – Science Advances doi:10.1126/sciadv.aay1052 – School of Informatics, Computing and Cyber Systems + Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University – https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/7/3/eaay1052.full.pdf  – 6 autores
     “While the land sink currently mitigates ~30% of anthropogenic carbon emissions, it is unclear whether this ecosystem service will persist and, more specifically, what hard temperature limits, if any, regulate carbon uptake … [Here] we show that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (3-month period) passed the thermal maximum for photosynthesis during the past decade … Under business-as-usual emissions, this divergence elicits a near halving of the land sink strength by as early as 2040.»
821. Liyin L. Liang et al (2018) – Macromolecular rate theory (MMRT) provides a thermodynamics rationale to underpin the convergent temperature response in plant leaf respiration – Global Change Biology 14:1538-1547 doi: 10.1111/gcb.13936 – School of Science, The University of Waikato – 10 autores «Temperature is a crucial factor in determining the rates of ecosystem processes, for example, leaf respiration (R)  … Generally, R increases exponentially with temperature and formulations such as the Arrhenius equation are widely used in earth system models … Three meaningful parameters emerge from MMRT analysis: the temperature at which the rate of respiration would theoretically reach a maximum (the optimum temperature, Topt), the temperature at which the respiration rate is most sensitive to changes in temperature (the inflection temperature, Tinf) and the overall curvature of the log(rate) versus temperature plot (the change in heat capacity for the system).”
822. Martin J. P. Sullivan et al (2020) – Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests – Science 368:869-874 doi:10.1126/science.aaw7578 – School of Geography, University of Leeds – https://bit.ly/2OCmcmP – 226 autores
     “This thermal adaptation potential may not be fully realized in future responses because (i) the speed of temperature rises may exceed species’ adaptive capabilities, (ii) habitat fragmentation may limit species’ ability to track changes in the environment, and (iii) other human impacts such as logging and fire can increase the vulnerability of forest carbon stocks to high temperatures. Although many tropical forests are under severe threat of conversion, our results show that, in the long run, tropical forests that remain intact can continue to store high levels of carbon under high temperatures. Achieving the biome-wide climate resilience potential that we document depends on limiting heating and on large-scale conservation and restoration to protect biodiversity and allow species to move. ”
823. M.R. Raupach et al (2014) – The declining uptake rate of atmospheric CO2 by land and ocean sinks – Biogeosciences, 11:3453-3475 do:10.5194/bg-11-3453-2014 – Climate Change Institute, Australian National University + Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research + CSIRO, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research – https://www.biogeosciences.net/11/3453/2014/bg-11-3453-2014.pdf – 9 autores
     “Through 1959–2012, an airborne fraction (AF) of 0.44 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions remained in the atmosphere, with the rest being taken up by land and ocean CO2 sinks … An observable quantity that reflects sink properties more directly than the AF is the CO2 sink rate (kS), the combined land–ocean CO2 sink flux per unit excess atmospheric CO2 above preindustrial levels. Here we show from observations that kS declined over 1959–2012 by a factor of about 1/3, implying that CO2 sinks increased more slowly than excess CO2.”
824. Christopher H. Trisos, Cory Merow and Alex L. Pigot (2020) – The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change – Nature doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2189-9 – African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town + National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC), Annapolis, USA. + Centre for Statistics in Ecology, the Environment, and Conservation, University of Cape Town; Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut; Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London – https://go.nature.com/34ma1yi
     “In some locations—such as the Caribbean and the Coral Triangle—exposure is predicted to be underway already, with these hotspots of exposure expanding in spatial extent over time … By 2050, exposure spreads beyond ocean ecosystems to iconic terrestrial ecosystems, such as the Amazon, Indonesian and Congolese rainforests … Notably, the timing of these assemblage-level exposure events is not well predicted by the timing of local climate emergence;  … in addition, the timing of abrupt exposure events lags behind local climate emergence by 42 years (±12 years; mean ± s.d.), indicating the potential time-lag between climate change and ensuing biotic responses. ”
825. Christopher H. Trisos, Cory Merow and Alex L. Pigot (2020) – The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change – Nature doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2189-9 – 08/04/2020 – African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town + National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC), Annapolis, USA. + Centre for Statistics in Ecology, the Environment, and Conservation, University of Cape Town; Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut; Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London – https://go.nature.com/34ma1yi
     “The most notable feature of horizon profiles for local assemblages is their abruptness (Figs. 1, 2b). Under RCP 8.5, on average 71% (median) of local species exposure times for any given assemblage are projected to occur within a single decade … with the abruptness of exposure higher among marine assemblages (median abruptness 89%, Fig. 3a).”
826. Christopher H. Trisos, Cory Merow & Alex L. Pigot (2020) – Íbid:
     “Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050 … the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 °C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.”
827. Timothy M. Lenton, Johan Rockström, Owen Gaffney, Stefan Rahmstorf, Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2019) – Íbid.
     “The world’s remaining emissions budget for a 50:50 chance of staying within 1.5 °C of warming is only about 500 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2. Permafrost emissions could take an estimated 20% (100 Gt CO2) off this budget10, and that’s without including methane from deep permafrost or undersea hydrates. If forests are close to tipping points, Amazon dieback could release another 90 Gt CO2 and boreal forests a further 110 Gt CO211. With global total CO2 emissions still at more than 40 Gt per year, the remaining budget could be all but erased already.”
828. Bob Berwin – Climate Tipping Points Are Closer Than We Think, Scientists Warn – Inside Climate News,  27/11/2019 – https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27112019/climate-tipping-points-permafrost-forests-ice-antarctica-greenland-amazon-nature
     “There are also indictations that exceeding tipping points in one system, such as the loss of Arctic sea ice, can increase the risk of crossing tipping points in others, a group of top scientists wrote Wednesday in the scientific journal Nature. «What we’re talking about is a point of no return, when we might actually lose control of this system, and there is a significant risk that we’re going to do this,» said Will Steffen, a climate researcher with the Australian National University and co-author of the commentary. «It’s not going to be the same conditions with just a bit more heat or a bit more rainfall. It’s a cascading process that gets out of control.» ”
829. Egbert H. van Nes et al (2016) – What do you mean, ‘tipping point’? – Trends in Ecology and Evolution 31:902-904 doi:10.1016/j.tree.2016.09.011 – Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Environmental Science Department, Wageningen University – 7 autores
     “Over the past 10 years the use of the term ‘tipping point’ in the scientific literature has exploded. It was originally used loosely as a metaphor for the phenomenon that, beyond a certain threshold, runaway change propels a system to a new state. Although several specific mathematical definitions have since been proposed, we argue that these are too narrow and that it is better to retain the original definition.
830. Dirk Helbing (2013) – Globally networked risks and how to respond – Nature 497:51–59 doi:10.1038/nature12047 – Chair of Sociology + Risk Center, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology – http://www.uvm.edu/~cdanfort/csc-reading-group/helbing-nature-2013.pdf
     “Furthermore, the combination of nonlinear interactions, network effects, delayed response and randomness may cause a sensitivity to small changes, unique path dependencies, and strong correlations, all of which are hard to understand, prepare for and manage. Each of these factors is already difficult to imagine, but this applies even more to their combination.”
831. Anthony D. Barnosky et al (2011) – Has the Earth’s sixth mass extinction already arrived? – Nature 471:51–57 doi:10.1038/nature09678 – Department of Integrative Biology, University of California – http://www.biologia.ufrj.br/labs/labpoly/Barnosky2011.pdf  12 autores
     “Palaeontologists characterize mass extinctions as times when the Earth loses more than three-quarters of its species in a geologically short interval, as has happened only five times in the past 540 million years or so. Biologists now suggest that a sixth mass extinction may be under way, given the known species losses over the past few centuries and millennia … Our results confirm that current extinction rates are higher than would be expected from the fossil record, highlighting the need for effective conservation measures.”
832. Gerardo Ceballos, Paul R. Ehrlich, and Peter H. Raven (2020) – Vertebrates on the brink as indicators of biological annihilation and the sixth mass extinction – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 117:13596-13602 doi:10.1073/pnas.1922686117 – Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; Center for Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, Stanford University; Plant Science Department, Missouri Botanical Garden – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/117/24/13596.full.pdf
     “Millions of populations have vanished in the last 100 y, with most people unaware of their loss … These losses … include many populations of large and conspicuous animals and plants, from lions and tigers to elephants and cacti. For example, in a sample of 177 species of large mammals, most lost more than 80% of their geographic range in the last century … a recent study showed that 32% of more than 27,000 vertebrate species have declining populations [ref] … More than 400 vertebrate species became extinct in the last 100 y, extinctions that would have taken up to 10,000 y in the normal course of evolution.”
833. Living Planet Report 2020 – World Wide Fund For Nature – Visitado el 24/02/2021 – https://livingplanet.panda.org/en-gb/
     “The living planet index. The population sizes of mammals, birds, fish, amphibians and reptiles have seen an alarming average drop of 68% since 1970.”
834. Enrique Leff (2014) – La apuesta por la vida: imaginación sociológica e imaginarios sociales en los territorios ambientales del Sur – Siglo XXI Editores – ISBN-13 : 978-6070306211 – 523 Págs. – http://www.biodiversidadla.org/content/download/116687/863952/version/1/file/LA+APUESTA+POR+LA+VIDA.+Imaginaci%C3%B3n+sociol%C3%B3gica+e+imaginarios+sociales+en+los+territorios+ambientales+del+Sur.pdf
     “Este libro surge de esa falla del saber que se refleja en un extrañamiento: el hecho de que el pensamiento humano se haya alejado de la inmanencia y el sentido de la vida, sometiéndose a los designios de una voluntad de poder, que se ha ejercido como un dominio de la naturaleza y ha conducido hacia la muerte entrópica del planeta.”
835. Reed F. Noos et al (2012) – Bolder thinking for conservation – Conservation Biology 26:1-4 doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01738.x – University of Central Florida – https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01738.x?download=true – 13 autores
     “From this precautionary perspective, 50% – slightly above the mid‐point of recent evidence‐based estimates (Fig. 1) – is scientifically defensible as a global target. We suggest that conservation targets and plans be regularly updated and synthesized into country‐ and continent‐wide strategies, accompanied by specific steps and a timetable for implementation.”
836. Anthony D. Barnosky et al (2012) – Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere – Nature 486:52–58 doi:10.1038/nature11018 – 06/06/2012 – Department of Integrative Biology, University of California – http://web.stanford.edu/group/hadlylab/_pdfs/Barnoskyetal2012.pdf – 22 autores
     “That percentage may be knowable only in retrospect, but, judging from landscape-scale observations and simulations66–70, it can reasonably be expected to be as low as 50% (ref. 68), or even lower if the interaction effects of many local ecosystem transformations cause sufficiently large global-scale forcings to emerge ”
837. Anthony D. Barnosky et al (2012) – Íbid.
     “It has already been demonstrated that at least 43% of Earth’s terrestrial ecosystems have undergone wholesale transformation [refs], on average equating to ~2.27 transformed acres (0.92 ha) per capita for the present human population. Assuming that this average rate of land transformation per capita does not change, 50% of Earth’s land will have undergone state shifts when the global population reaches 8,200,000,000, which is estimated to occur by the year 2025 [ref]. Under the same land-use assumption and according to only slightly less conservative population growth models, 70% of Earth’s land could be shifted to human use (if the population reaches 11,500,000,000) by 2060 [ref]. ”
838. Anthony D. Barnosky et al (2012) – Íbid.
     “Comparison of the present extent of planetary change with that characterizing past global-scale state shifts, and the enormous global forcings we continue to exert, suggests that another global-scale state shift is highly plausible within decades to centuries, if it has not already been initiated.”
839. Anthony D. Barnosky et al (2012) – Íbid.
     “Despite their different timescales, past critical transitions occur very quickly relative to their bracketing states: for the examples discussed here, the transitions took less than,5%of the timethe previous state had lasted (Box 1). ”
840. Terry P.Hughes et al (2013) – Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries – Trends in Ecology and Evolution 28:389-395 doi:10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.019 – Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University
     “We stress, however, that the strong opinions expressed on either side of the debate on planetary tipping points (e.g., [refs: Barosky, Brooks]) are sometimes based on assertions or unproven assumptions, and there are many knowledge gaps in our understanding of large-scale transformations (Box 3). ”
841. Barry W. Brook et al (2013) – Does the terrestrial biosphere have planetary tipping points? – Trends in Ecology & Evolution doi:10.1016/j.tree.2013.01.016 – Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide – http://ecotope.org/people/ellis/papers/brook_2013.pdf – 5 autores
     “Even where tipping points have occurred on local and regional scales, there is empirical and experimental evidence to suggest that many ecosystems are able to recover even after heavy disturbance by humans [61,62]. Take, for example, land-use change, where categorization of the terrestrial biosphere into ‘converted’ or nominally ‘wild’ ecosystems omits human influences on non-converted land and underplays the habitat value of landscapes that have already been transformed by human use.”
842. Erle C. Ellis et al (2013) – Used planet: a global history – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 110:7978-7985 doi: 10.1073/pnas.1217241110 – Department of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/20/7978.full.pdf – 6 autores “Today, as populations, consumption, and technological power advance at an exponential pace that might seem almost impossible to sustain, especially given current societal dependence on fossil energy, increasingly intense land-use systems seem to be evolving in new, more land-efficient, directions that may even reverse many of the environmental impacts of prior land use. ”
843. Timothy M.Lenton and Hywel T.P.Williams (2013) – On the origin of planetary-scale tipping points – Trends in Ecology and Evolution 28:380-382 doi:10.1016/j.tree.2013.06.001 – 15/06/2013 – College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter
     “Barnosky et al.’s [1] central proposal is that human land use will pass a tipping point that triggers greatly increased biodiversity loss. This is inferred from smaller-scale models of popu- lation collapse due to habitat fragmentation. However, it is assumed [1] that projected human population growth will be directly correlated with increased land use, when actual per capita land use has steadily diminished over time [13]. Furthermore, a global ‘fold’ bifurcation is invoked [1] without a clear mechanism, making it pure supposition. ”
844. Hywel T. P. Williams and Timothy M. Lenton (2010) – Evolutionary regime shifts in simulated ecosystems – Oikos 119:1887-1899 doi:10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18127.x – School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
     “Transitions between periods of stability occur when new traits arise that allow exploitation of under‐utilized resources. Subsequent rapid growth of the population carrying the new trait causes abrupt environmental change that drives incumbent species extinct. We call these transitions ‘evolutionary regime shifts’. These internally generated perturbations can result in ecosystem collapse, followed by recovery to an alternate stable state, or occasionally system‐wide extinction.”
845. Timothy M.Lenton and Hywel T.P.Williams (2013) – Íbid.
     “To summarise, the terrestrial biosphere, in isolation, is not the right place to be looking for a planetary-scale tipping point; one must consider the coupled dynamics of the Earth system as a whole, including evolution. However, regardless of whether it is approaching a global tipping point, we can all agree that the biosphere is in trouble. ”
846. Will Steffen et al (2018) – Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 115:8252-8259 doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115 – Stockholm Resilience Centre – http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2018/07/31/1810141115.full.pdf – 16 autores
     “We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced.”
847. Will Steffen et al (2018) – Íbid.
     “This analysis implies that, even if the Paris Accord target of a 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C rise in temperature is met, we cannot exclude the risk that a cascade of feedbacks could push the Earth System irreversibly onto a “Hothouse Earth” pathway … A critical issue is that, if a planetary threshold is crossed toward the Hothouse Earth pathway, accessing the Stabilized Earth pathway would become very difficult no matter what actions human societies might take. … after the Earth System is committed to the Hothouse Earth pathway, the alternative Stabilized Earth pathway would very likely become inaccessible as illustrated in Fig. 2. ”
848. Will Steffen et al (2018) – Íbid.
     “Humanity’s challenge then is to influence the dynamical properties of the Earth System in such a way that the emerging unstable conditions in the zone between the Holocene and a very hot state become a de facto stable intermediate state (Stabilized Earth) (Fig. 2) … Incremental linear changes to the present socioeconomic system are not enough to stabilize the Earth System. Widespread, rapid, and fundamental transformations will likely be required  … This requires that humans take deliberate, integral, and adaptive steps to reduce dangerous impacts on the Earth System, effectively monitoring and changing behavior to form feedback loops that stabilize this intermediate state … The human-created Stabilized Earth pathway leads to a basin of attraction that is not likely to exist in the Earth System’s stability landscape without human stewardship to create and maintain it. Creating such a pathway and basin of attraction requires a fundamental change in the role of humans on the planet. This stewardship role requires deliberate and sustained action to become an integral, adaptive part of Earth System dynamics, creating feedbacks that keep the system on a Stabilized Earth pathway (Alternative Stabilized Earth Pathway).”
849. Will Steffen et al (2018) – Íbid.
     “Our analysis argues that human societies and our activities need to be recast as an integral, interacting component of a complex, adaptive Earth System.”
850. Will Steffen et al (2018) – Íbid.
     “In addition to institutional and social innovation at the global governance level, changes in demographics, consumption, behavior, attitudes, education, institutions, and socially embedded technologies are all important to maximize the chances of achieving a Stabilized Earth pathway (71). Many of the needed shifts may take decades to have a globally aggregated impact (SI Appendix, Table S5), but there are indications that society may be reaching some important societal tipping points … and opportunities for consequent major transitions in social norms over broad scales may arise (76) … Ultimately, the transformations necessary to achieve the Stabilized Earth pathway require a fundamental reorientation and restructuring of national and international institutions toward more effective governance at the Earth System level (77), with a much stronger emphasis on planetary concerns in economic governance, global trade, investments and finance, and technological development (78).”
851. Karine Nyborg et al (2016) – Social norms as solutions – Science 354:42-43 doi:10.1126/science.aaf8317 – The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences supported the authors’ collaboration – https://bit.ly/3c92Iyl – 26 autores
     “When people prefer to act like most others, beliefs can be self-fulfilling—and changed expectations of what others will do can produce abrupt behavioral changes … Experiments confirm that expectations are crucial for cooperative behavior and that they are affected by variables like framing, communication, moral suasion, and ability to be identified [ref].”
852. F. Biermann et al (2012) – Science and government. Navigating the anthropocene: Improving Earth system governance – Science 335:1306-1307 doi:10.1126/science.1217255 – VU University Amsterdam + Lund University – https://bit.ly/3kWW95K – 31 autores
     “Human societies must now change course and steer away from critical tipping points in the Earth system that might lead to rapid and irreversible change [ref]. This requires fundamental reorientation and restructuring of national and international institutions toward more effective Earth system governance and planetary stewardship.”
853. Michael E. Mann (2014) – Why Global Warming Will Cross a Dangerous Threshold in 2036 – Scientific American, 01/04/2014 – Penn State Earth System Science Center – http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mann-why-global-warming-will-cross-a-dangerous-threshold-in-2036/
     “These numbers come from calculations made by me and several colleagues. We plugged values of Earth’s “equilibrium climate sensitivity”—a common measure of the heating effect of greenhouse gases—into a so-called energy balance model. Scientists use the model to investigate possible climate scenarios. You can try this exercise yourself. The text below explains the variables and steps involved. You can download the climate data here and the model code here. And you can compare your results with mine, which are here.”
854. Myles Allen et al (2018) – Global Warming of 1.5 °C. Summary for Policymakers – Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) – http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf – 62 autores
     “Overshoot trajectories result in higher impacts and associated challenges compared to pathways that limit global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (high confidence). Reversing warming after an overshoot of 0.2°C or larger during this century would require upscaling and deployment of CDR at rates and volumes that might not be achievable given considerable implementation challenges (medium confidence).”
855. Kevin Anderson – The hidden agenda: how veiled techno-utopias shore up the Paris Agreement – Kevin Anderson blog, 06/01/2016 – Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research + Mechanical, Civil and Aerospace Engineering, University of Manchester – https://kevinanderson.info/blog/the-hidden-agenda-how-veiled-techno-utopias-shore-up-the-paris-agreement/
     “BECCS, or even negative emission technologies, received no direct reference throughout the thirty-two-page Paris Agreement. Despite this, the framing of the 2°C and (even more) the 1.5°C, goals, is fundamentally premised on the massive uptake of BECCS sometime in the latter half of the century. Disturbingly, this reliance on BECCS is also the case for most of the temperature estimates (e.g. 2.7°C) ascribed to the national pledges (INDCs) prior to the Paris COP. The sheer scale of the BECCS assumption underpinning the Agreement is breath taking – decades of ongoing planting and harvesting of energy crops over an area the size of one to three times that of India.”
856. Giulia Realmonte et al (2019) – An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways – Nature Communications 10:3277 doi:10.1038/s41467-019-10842-5 – RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10842-5.pdf – 7 autores
     “The feasibility of large-scale biological CO2 removal to achieve stringent climate targets remains unclear … Here we conduct the first inter-model comparison … The key factor limiting DACCS deployment is the rate at which it can be scaled up. Our scenarios’ average DACCS scale-up rates of 1.5 GtCO2/yr would require considerable sorbent production and up to 300 EJ/yr of energy input by 2100.”
857. Kevin Anderson and Glen Peters (2016) – The trouble with negative emissions – Science 354:182-183 doi:10.1126/science.aah4567 – Tyndall Centre, University of Manchester + Centre for Sustainable Development, Uppsala University; Center for International Climate and Environmental Research—Oslo (CICERO) – http://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6309/182.full.pdf
     “Generally, carbon is assumed to be fully absorbed during biomass growth, captured before or after combustion, and then stored underground indefinitely. Despite the prevalence of BECCS in emission scenarios at a level much higher than afforestation, only one large-scale demonstration plant exists today.”
858. Ahmed Abdulla et al (2020) – Explaining successful and failed investments in U.S. carbon capture and storage using empirical and expert assessments – Environmental Research Letters 16:014036 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abd19e – Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Carleton University + Deep Decarbonization Initiative, UC San Diego – https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abd19e/pdf – 5 autores
     “While many projects essential to commercializing the technology have been proposed, most (>80%) end in failure. Here we analyze the full universe of CCS projects attempted in the U.S. that have sufficient documentation (N=39)—the largest sample ever studied systematically.”
859. costes siempre crecientes
860. Fabian Stenzel et al (2021) – Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change – Nature Communications 12:1512 doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21640-3 – 08/03/2021 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association + International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) + Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Department of Geography + Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems, Berlin – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21640-3.pdf – 6 autores
     “Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered an important negative emissions (NEs) technology, but might involve substantial irrigation on biomass plantations … However, our results suggest that both the global area and population living under severe water stress in the BECCS scenario would double compared to today and even exceed the impact of climate change. Such side effects of achieving substantial NEs would come as an extra pressure in an already water-stressed world and could only be avoided if sustainable water management were implemented globally.»
861. Mark D. Zoback and Steven M. Gorelick (2012) – Earthquake triggering and large-scale geologic storage of carbon dioxide – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 109:10164–10168 doi:10.1073/pnas.1202473109 – Departments of Geophysics and Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/109/26/10164.full.pdf
     “We argue here that there is a high probability that earthquakes will be triggered by injection of large volumes of CO2 into the brittle rocks commonly found in continental interiors. Because even small- to moderate-sized earthquakes threaten the seal integrity of CO2 repositories, in this context, large-scale CCS is a risky, and likely unsuccessful, strategy for significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions … Thus, the issue is not whether CO2 can be safely stored at a given site; the issue is whether the capacity exists for sufficient volumes of CO2 to be stored geologically for it to have the desired beneficial effect on climate change.”
862. Moises Velasquez-Manoff and Jeremy White – In the Atlantic Ocean, Subtle Shifts Hint at Dramatic Dangers – The New York Times. 02/03/2021 – https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/03/02/climate/atlantic-ocean-climate-change.html
     “We’re all wishing it’s not true,” Peter de Menocal, a paleoceanographer and president and director of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, said of the changing ocean currents. “Because if that happens, it’s just a monstrous change.”
863. Christian L. E. Franzke (2014) – Warming trends: Nonlinear climate change – Nature Climate Change 4:423–424 doi:10.1038/nclimate2245 – 28/05/2014 – Meteorological Institute and the Centre for Earth System Science and Sustainability, University of Hamburg
     “It is generally accepted that climate evolves in a nonlinear, chaotic fashion, but most data analysis methods used in climate science are only strictly valid for stationary systems and very often they even assume linearity. ”
864. James Hansen – Saving Earth – Columbia University Earth Institute, 27/06/2019 – Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute – http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2019/20190627_SavingEarth.pdf
     “The rate 0.38°C/decade based on the past two La Ninas is an exaggeration, because the last La Niña was weak. Based on the growth rate of the greenhouse climate forcing (Figure 2), the underlying global warming rate is now probably about a third higher than the average for the past half century, thus perhaps close to 0.25°C/decade. ”
865. Thomas Lowe et al (2005) – Does tomorrow ever come? Disaster narrative and public perceptions of climate change – Public Understanding of Science 15:435-457 – Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
     “Although the film [The Day After Tomorrow] may have sensitized viewers and motivated them to act, the public do not have information on what action they can take to mitigate climate change”
866. Wallace S. Broecker (1987) – Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse? – Nature 328:123-126 doi:10.1038/328123a0 – Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University
     “There is now clear evidence that changes in the Earth’s climate may be sudden rather than gradual … This current carries 20 times more water than the world’s river combined.
867. L.C. Jackson et al (2015) – Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM – Climate Dynamics 45:3299–3316 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2540-2 – Met Office Hadley Centre – https://bit.ly/3iJsrzh – 7 autores
     “The impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global climate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe … These include: widespread cooling throughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general; less precipitation in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes; large changes in precipitation in the tropics and a strengthening of the North Atlantic storm track. The focus on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Summer precipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe … Winter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric circulation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with more winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger westerly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while weaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect … The general cooling and atmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and vegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability and crop production.”
868. Thermohaline Circulation / AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) – Climate Prediction.net, 08/07/2014 – https://www.climateprediction.net/climate-science/glossary/thermohaline-circulation-amoc-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation/
     “Model studies suggest that a collapse of the AMOC could lead to a reduction in surface air temperature of around 1 to 3°C in the North Atlantic region and surrounding land masses, but with local cooling of up to 8°C in areas of increased sea ice. A smaller cooling effect would be expected throughout the northern hemisphere, with a slight warming in the southern hemisphere after a few decades. ”
869. César Negre et al (2010) – Reversed flow of Atlantic deep water during the Last Glacial Maximum – Nature 468:84-88 doi:10.1038/nature09508 Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona – https://bit.ly/2lSf6MF – 8 autores »
     “These conclusions are based on new high-resolution data from the South Atlantic Ocean that establish the basin-scale north to south gradient … This broader perspective suggests that the modern pattern of the Atlantic MOC—with a prominent southerly flow of deep waters originating in the North Atlantic—arose only during the Holocene epoch.”
870. Mihai Dima and Gerrit Lohmann (2010) – Evidence for Two Distinct Modes of Large-Scale Ocean Circulation Changes over the Last Century – Journal of Climate doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2867.1 – – Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven + Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest – https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JCLI2867.1
     “Through its nonlinear dynamics and involvement in past abrupt climate shifts the thermohaline circulation (THC) represents a key element for the understanding of rapid climate changes … Based on the separation of these two patterns the autores show that the global conveyor has been weakening since the late 1930s and that the North Atlantic overturning cell suffered an abrupt shift around 1970. The distinction between the two modes provides also a new frame for interpreting past abrupt climate changes.»
871. Matthew Collins and Reto Knutti (2013) – Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility – En: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York –  http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf – 14 autores
     «Atlantic MOC collapse: Potentially abrupt … proximity to this threshold is highly model dependent and influenced by factors that are currently poorly understood … Very unlikely that the AMOC will undergo a rapid transition (high confidence).» (p. 1115)
872. P. Bakker et al (2016) – Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting – Geophysical Research Letters 43:12,252-12,260 doi:10.1002/2016GL070457 – College or Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University + MARUM, University of Bremen – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2016GL070457 – 15 autores
     “The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century.”
873. Stefan Rahmstorf et al (2015) – Exceptional twentieth-Century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation – Nature Climate Change 5:475-480 doi:10.1038/nclimate2554 – 23/03/2015 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Earth System Analysis – https://bit.ly/3tqZQUA – 7 autores
     ”We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC.»
874. Qian Yang et al (2016) – Recent increases in Arctic freshwater flux affects Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning circulation – Nature Communications 7:10525 doi:10.1038/ncomms10525 – School of Geosciences, University of South Florida – https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10525.pdf – 8 autores
     “Here we derive a new estimate of the recent freshwater flux from Greenland … We suggest that changes in LSW [Labrador Sea Water] can be directly linked to recent freshening, and suggest a possible link to AMOC weakening.”
875. Jiaxu Zhang et al (2021) – Labrador Sea freshening linked to Beaufort Gyre freshwater release – Nature Communications 12:1229 doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21470-3 – Computational Physics and Methods, Los Alamos National Laboratory + Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory + Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, now Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA + NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21470-3.pdf – 6 autores
     “Given that the subpolar North Atlantic is a site of deep-water formation, such freshening could have consequences for the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its global impacts [refs] … However, some recent observational and modeling studies have raised questions about such a link.”
876. Johannes Lohmann and Peter D. Ditlevsen (2021) – Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 118:e2017989118 doi:10.1073/pnas.2017989118 – Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen; Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen
     “We show that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation can indeed be induced even by small-amplitude changes in the forcing, if the rate of change is fast enough … The results show that the safe operating space of elements of the Earth system with respect to future emissions might be smaller than previously thought.»
877. Henry Stommel (1961) – Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes of flow – Tellus 13:224–230 doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1961.tb00079.x – Harvard University – http://www.ocean.washington.edu/people/faculty/luanne/classes/pcc586/papers/stommel-tellus.pdf
     “Free convection between two interconnected reservoirs, due to density differences maintained by heat and salt transfer to the reservoirs, is shown to occur sometimes in two different stable regimes, and may possibly be analogous to certain features of the oceanic circulation.”
878. D.J.R. Thornalley et al (2018) – Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years – Nature 556:227–230 doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0007-4 – Department of Geography, University College London + Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution – http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/76608/1/Combined_accepted_text_figs_extended.pdf – 12 autores
     “Our results suggest that recent decadal variability in Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC has occurred during an atypical, weak background state. Future work should aim to constrain the roles of internal climate variability and early anthropogenic forcing in the AMOC weakening described here.»
879. Levke Caesar et al (2018) – Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation – Nature 556:191–196 doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) + Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam – https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2018/EGU2018-12941.pdf – 5 autores
     “Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’… The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream.”
880. James Hansen et al (2016) – Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous – Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 15:3761–3812 doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 – Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute – https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf – 19 autores
     “Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region … These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments.”
881. Wei Liu et al (2017) – Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate – Science Advances 3:e1601666 doi:10.1126/sciadv.1601666 – Department of Climate, Atmospheric Science and Physical Oceanography, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego – http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/e1601666.full.pdf – 4 autores
     “By correcting the model biases, we show that the AMOC collapses 300 years after the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly doubled from the 1990 level. Compared to an uncorrected model, the AMOC collapse brings about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas, sea ice increases over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas and to the south of Greenland, and a significant southward rain-belt migration over the tropical Atlantic.”
882. Giovanni Sgubin et al (2017) – Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models – Nature Communications 8:14375 doi:10.1038/ncomms14375 – Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) + Environnements et Paleoenvironnements Oceaniques et Continenteaux (EPOC), UMR CNRS 5805, Université de Bordeaux – https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14375.pdf – 5 autores
     “Due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG [subpolar North Atlantic] cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy … In addition to the potential existence of a tipping point for an AMOC shutdown, we argue that a separate one involving a collapse of SPG convection [ref] also exists. Both AMOC disruption and SPG convection collapse are possible responses to the ongoing global warming trend [refs] and changes in the hydrological cycle that are freshening the northern NA [refs].”
883. Ying Bao, Zhenya Song and Fangli Qiao (2020) – FIO‐ESM Version 2.0: Model Description and Evaluation – Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 125:e2019JC016036 doi: 10.1029/2019JC016036 – First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao, China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, Ministry of Natural Resources – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2019JC016036
     “The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model (FIO‐ESM) version 2.0 was developed and participated in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) … The climate changes with respect to SAT and SST global warming and decreasing AMOC are well reproduced by FIO‐ESM v2.0. The correlation coefficient of the global annual mean SAT anomaly can reach 0.92 with observations.”
884. Sybren Drijfhout et al (2015) – Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1511451112 – 12/10/2015 – Research and Development, Weather and Climate Modeling, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/112/43/E5777.full.pdf – 9 autores
     “Until approximately year 2020, reduced heat transport balances increased radiative forcing and ocean temperatures hardly change … In this period, the decline of the AMOC accelerates and salinity in the area starts diminishing. After 2020, the increase in radiative forcing is no longer able to compensate for weakened advection of warm water into the area … After year 2040, sea ice starts to form in the area, which was largely ice-free in the period before 2040 … The AMOC effectively collapses after year 2060. As a result of the AMOC collapse, cooling in the Nordic Seas spreads westward toward other deep water formation areas, like the Labrador Sea … In the other RCP scenarios, the same mechanism operates, but stronger warming through increased radiative forcing is better able to counteract the cooling associated with the AMOC collapse. Hence the cooling weakens with stronger forcing. ”
885. Sybren Drijfhout et al (2015) – Íbid.
     “A collapse of the AMOC is mainly governed by an advective salt feedback (32, 33). We find this event to be associated with indicators of decreasing stability (rising variance and autocorrelation; SI Appendix, Fig. S4) (34, 35) for SST but not for the AMOC itself, whereas, in other instances of rapid change investigated, such generic early warning signals are absent. ”
886. Giovanni Sgubin et al (2017) – Íbid.
     “Contrary to the long-term SPG [subpolar North Atlantic] warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection … This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy.”
887. Ben Kirtman and Scott B. Power (2013) – Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Chapter 12: Long-Term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf – 55 autores
     “The FIO-ESM model shows cooling over much of the NH that may be related to a strong reduction of the AMOC in all RCP scenarios (even RCP2.6), but the limited output available from the model precludes an assessment of the response and realism of this response. Hence it is not included the overall assessment of the likelihood of abrupt changes. ”
888. Levke Caesar et al (2021) – Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium – Nature Geoscience 14:118–120  doi:10.1038/s41561-021-00699-z – Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University + Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association – 5 autores
     “Here, we compare a variety of published proxy records to reconstruct the evolution of the AMOC since about AD 400. A fairly consistent picture of the AMOC emerges: after a long and relatively stable period, there was an initial weakening starting in the nineteenth century, followed by a second, more rapid, decline in the mid-twentieth century, leading to the weakest state of the AMOC occurring in recent decades.”
889. Stefan Rahmstorf et al (2015) – Exceptional twentieth-Century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation – Nature Climate Change 5:475-480 doi:10.1038/nclimate2554 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Earth System Analysis – https://bit.ly/2mfEdcm – 7 autores
     “Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered … We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown … suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC.»
890. Xianyao Chen and Ka-Kit Tung (2018) – Global surface warming enhanced by weak Atlantic overturning circulation – Nature 559:387–391 doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0320-y – Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington – https://bit.ly/2ZOHfDb
     “We expect a prolonged AMOC minimum, probably lasting about two decades. If prior patterns hold, the resulting low levels of oceanic heat uptake will manifest as a period of rapid global surface warming.”
891. Igor M.Belkin et al (1998) – ‘Great Salinity Anomalies’ in the North Atlantic – Progress in Oceanography 41:1–68 doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(98)00015-9 – Ocean Climate Laboratory, National Oceanographic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration + Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences
     “Two major modes of the GSA origin are thus identified, remote (generated by an enhanced Arctic Ocean freshwater export via either Fram Strait or the Canadian Archipelago) and local (resulting from severe winters in the Labrador Sea/Baffin Bay).”
892. M.A. Srokosz and H.L. Bryden (2’15) – Observing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation yields a decade of inevitable surprises – Science 348 doi:10.1126/science.1255575 – National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton
     “The 26.5°N AMOC observations have produced a number of surprises on time scales from subannual to multiannual… over the period of the 26.5°N observations, the AMOC has been declining at a rate of about 0.5 Sv per year, 10 times as fast as predicted by climate models.”
893. Summer K. Praetorius (2018) – North Atlantic circulation slows down – Nature 556:180-181 doi:10.1038/d41586-018-04086-4 – Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, US Geological Survey – https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04086-4?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20180413
     “For now, the timing of the AMOC decline remains a source of intrigue … However, in the context of future climate-change scenarios and a possible collapse in the AMOC11 in response to the continued melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet12, it is perhaps less reassuring, because a weakened AMOC might lead to considerable changes in climate and precipitation patterns throughout the Northern Hemisphere13.”
894. P. Bakker et al (2016) – Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting – Geophysical Research Letters 43:12,252-12,260 doi:10.1002/2016GL070457 – College or Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University + MARUM, University of Bremen – https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2016GL070457 – 15 autores
     “The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century … We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance.”
895. Matthew Collins and Michael Sutherland (2019) – Oceans and Climate Change (SROCC). Chapter 6. Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks – Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) – https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_FinalDraft_Chapter6.pdf – 30 autores
     “The AMOC will very likely weaken over the 21st century (high confidence), although a collapse is very unlikely (medium confidence). Nevertheless, a substantial weakening of the AMOC remains a physically plausible scenario.”
896. Richard A. Kerr (2000) – A North Atlantic Climate Pacemaker for the Centuries – Science 288:1984-1985 doi:10.1126/science.288.5473.1984
     “Although El Niño and La Niña are the largest single sources of global interannual climate variability, climate shifts on longer time scales than El Niño’s 2 to 7 years are also drawing the attention of researchers. On multidecadal time scales of 40 to 80 years, a restless North Atlantic seems to be at work, alternately countering and enhancing humankind’s alterations of climate. The evidence for this is turning up in such records as tree rings, ice cores, and corals.”
897. Michael E. Mann (2021) – The Rise and Fall of the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” – Real Climate, 04/03/2021 – Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University – http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2021/03/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation/
     “Instead … the alternating warming and cooling is tied to the competition between steady greenhouse warming and the prominent sulphate aerosol cooling of the 1950s-1970s. The aerosol cooling is especially pronounced in the North Atlantic (particularly during summer) as noted by Mann and Emanuel (2005) helping to explain why the apparent “oscillation” is most pronounced in that region.»
898. Michael E. Mann et al (2021) – Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by volcanic forcing – Science 371:1014-1019 doi:10.1126/science.abc5810 – Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University – 4 autores
     “Past research argues for an internal multidecadal (40- to 60-year) oscillation distinct from climate noise. Recent studies have claimed that this so-termed Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is instead a manifestation of competing time-varying effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols … we show that these apparent multidecadal oscillations are an artifact of pulses of volcanic activity during the preindustrial era that project markedly onto the multidecadal (50- to 70-year) frequency band. We conclude that there is no compelling evidence for internal multidecadal oscillations in the climate system.”
899. Michael E. Mann (2021) – Íbid.
     “The available evidence both from observations and current-generation climate models, in summary, does not provide any support for an internal AMO-like oscillation in the climate system … My collaborators and I, over the past decade, have continued to investigate the origins of the putative AMO signal and have been led inescapably to the conclusion that the AMO … doesn’t actually exist. It’s an artifact, during the historical era, of competing anthropogenic (greenhouse warming and sulphate aerosol cooling) drivers and, during the earlier period, an artifact of the fact that volcanic forcing happens to have displayed a roughly multidecadal pacing in past centuries.”
900. Michael E. Mann, Byron A. Steinman & Sonya K. Miller (2020) – Absence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations – Nature Communications 11:49 doi:10.1038/s41467-019-13823-w – Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Pennsylvania State University – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-13823-w.pdf
     “For several decades the existence of interdecadal and multidecadal internal climate oscillations has been asserted by numerous studies based on analyses of historical observations, paleoclimatic data and climate model simulations … These findings have implications both for the validity of previous studies attributing certain long-term climate trends to internal low-frequency climate cycles and for the prospect of decadal climate predictability.”
901. Andrew Y. Glikson (2019) – North Atlantic and sub-Antarctic Ocean temperatures: possible onset of a transient stadial cooling stage – Climatic Change 155:311–321 doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02458-x – Research School of Earth Science, Australian National University
     “A stadial would be succeeded by the resumption of warming driven by a continuing rise in greenhouse gas concentrations and amplifying feedback effects. These projections need to be examined vis-a-vis the continuous linear IPCC temperature rise models.”
902. Wolfram M. Kürschner, Zlatko Kvaček, and David L. Dilcher (2008) – The impact of Miocene atmospheric carbon dioxide fluctuations on climate and the evolution of terrestrial ecosystems – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 105:449-453 doi:10.1073/pnas.0708588105 – Faculty of Science, Institute of Environmental Biology, Department of Palaeoecology, Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology, Utrecht University; Faculty of Natural Sciences, Charles University; Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/105/2/449.full.pdf
     “Here we present a CO2 record based on stomatal frequency data from multiple tree species. Our data show striking CO2 fluctuations of ≈600–300 parts per million by volume (ppmv). Periods of low CO2 are contemporaneous with major glaciations, whereas elevated CO2 of 500 ppmv coincides with the climatic optimum in the Miocene. Our data point to a long-term coupling between atmospheric CO2 and climate. Major changes in Miocene terrestrial ecosystems, such as the expansion of grasslands and radiations among terrestrial herbivores such as horses, can be linked to these marked fluctuations in CO2.”
903. Damian Carrington – Climate emergency: world ‘may have crossed ‘tipping points’ – The Guardian , 27/11/2019 – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/27/climate-emergency-world-may-have-crossed-tipping-points
     “Prof Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter, the lead author of the article, said: “We might already have crossed the threshold for a cascade of interrelated tipping points. The simple version is the schoolkids [striking for climate action] are right: we are seeing potentially irreversible changes in the climate system under way, or very close.” … Phil Williamson at the University of East Anglia, who did not contribute to the article, said: “The prognosis by Tim Lenton and colleagues is, unfortunately, fully plausible: that we might have already lost control of the Earth’s climate.”.”
904. Félix Pharand-Deschênes – Earth’s Sleeping Giants Stirring – Behance, 28/11/2019 – https://www.behance.net/gallery/88777129/Earths-Sleeping-Giants-Stirring
905. Juan C. Rocha et al (2018) – Íbid.
     “Not all cascading effects reported in the literature and our results are expected to amplify each other. For example, it has been reported that climate-tipping points can regulate each other and reduce the probability of regime shifts in forests [refs]. ”
906. Mark M. Dekker, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra (2018) – Cascading transitions in the climate system – Earth System Dynamics 9:1243–1260 doi: 10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 – Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht University + Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University + Department of Information and Computing Science, Utrecht University – https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1243/2018/esd-9-1243-2018.pdf
     “These two applications reflect the relevance of this paper. There are likely many cases in which these cascading events occur in climate and therefore highlight the importance of the topic. Future research will point out whether these events are likely to happen in the future climate and whether these effects also occur in fields other than climate science. Of course, this paper covers the very basics of deterministic cascading events. However, one can imagine a wide range of phenomena if more complicated transitions between attractors are considered and when noise is included … An application here may be the effect of a mid-latitude atmospheric jet on the Atlantic MOC. ”
907. Timothy M. Lenton, Johan Rockström, Owen Gaffney, Stefan Rahmstorf, Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2019) – Íbid:
     “In our view, examples are starting to be observed. For example, Arctic sea-ice loss is amplifying regional warming, and Arctic warming and Greenland melting are driving an influx of fresh water into the North Atlantic. This could have contributed to a 15% slowdown15 since the mid-twentieth century of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key part of global heat and salt transport by the ocean3. Rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheet and further slowdown of the AMOC could destabilize the West African monsoon, triggering drought in Africa’s Sahel region. A slowdown in the AMOC could also dry the Amazon, disrupt the East Asian monsoon and cause heat to build up in the Southern Ocean, which could accelerate Antarctic ice loss.”
908. Michael Ghil, Ilya Zaliapin and Barbara Coluzzi (2008) – Boolean delay equations: a simple way of looking at complex systems – Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 237:2967–2986 doi:10.1016/j.physd.2008.07.006 – Geosciences Department and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL) + Environmental Research and Teaching Institute, Ecole Normale Supérieure + Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles – https://bit.ly/3eqbhri
     “Boolean Delay Equations (BDEs) are semi-discrete dynamical models with Boolean-valued variables that evolve in continuous time … This research-and-review paper concludes with a set of open questions.»
909. Nico Wunderling et al (2020) – Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming – Earth System Dynamics doi:10.5194/esd-2020-18 – Earth System Analysis and Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact, Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association – https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2020-18/esd-2020-18.pdf – 4 autores
     “We show that this risk increases significantly when considering interactions between these climate tipping elements. Altogether, with the exception of the Greenland Ice Sheet, interactions effectively push the critical threshold temperatures to lower warming levels, thus reducing the overall stability of the climate system. The domino-like interactions also foster cascading, nonlinear responses … Owing to the interactions between the tipping elements, the critical temperatures are generally shifted to lower values”
910. Nico Wunderling et al (2020) – Íbid.
     “We analyse the risk of domino effects being triggered by each of the individual tipping elements under global warming in equilibrium experiments … we find that the interactions tend to destabilise the network. Furthermore, our analysis reveals the qualitative role of each of the five tipping elements showing that the polar ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica are oftentimes the initiators of tipping cascades, while the AMOC acts as a mediator, transmitting cascades. This implies that the ice sheets, which are already at risk of transgressing their temperature thresholds within the Paris range of 1.5 to 2 °C, are of particular importance for the stability of the climate system as a whole.”
911. Elmar Kriegler et al (2009) – Íbid.
     “We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2–4 °C), and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 °C) relative to year 2000 levels … The expert elicitation was conducted between October 2005 and April 2006.”
912. Michalea D. King et al (2020) – Dynamic ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet driven by sustained glacier retreat – Communications Earth & Environment doi:10.1038/s43247-020-0001-2 – Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center & School of Earth Sciences, The Ohio State University – https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-0001-2.pdf – 9 autores
     “We find that GrIS-wide discharge is now ~14% greater than the rate observed during 1985–1999, following an observed step increase during the early 2000’s. Widespread glacier retreat explains nearly all (>90%) of the observed multi-decadal variability in discharge, with a observed increase in discharge of 4–5% per every weighted mean kilometer of retreat … Following the step-increase in discharge, GrIS-wide totals have remained relatively stable at rates near 495–500 Gt yr−1, reflecting an increase that was sufficient to effectively shift the ice sheet to a state of persistent mass loss. ”
913. Jonathan M. Gregory, Steven E. George, Robin S. Smith (2020) – Large and irreversible future decline of the Greenland ice sheet – The Cryosphere 14:4299 doi:10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020 – 01/12/2020 – National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading; Met Office Hadley Centre – https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/4299/2020/tc-14-4299-2020.pdf
     “If late 20th-century climate is restored after the ice sheet mass has fallen below a threshold of about 4 m of sea level equivalent, it will not regrow to its present extent … In order to avoid this outcome, anthropogenic climate change must be reversed before the ice sheet has declined to the threshold mass, which would be reached in about 600 years at the highest rate of mass loss within the likely range of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”
914. Stefan Hofer et al (2020) – Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6 – Nature Communications 11:6289 doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8 – 15/12/2020 – Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo + SPHERES Research Units, Geography Department, University of Liège – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8.pdf  – 6 autores
     “Here, we show that the total GrIS sea level rise contribution from surface mass loss in our high-resolution (15 km) regional climate projections is 17.8 ± 7.8 cm in SSP585, 7.9 cm more than in our RCP8.5 simulations using CMIP5 input. We identify a +1.3 °C greater Arctic Amplification and associated cloud and sea ice feedbacks in the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario as the main drivers. Additionally, an assessment of the GrIS sea level contribution across all emission scenarios highlights, that the GrIS mass loss in CMIP6 is equivalent to a CMIP5 scenario with twice the global radiative forcing.»
915. Miren Vizcaíno et al (2008) – Long-term ice sheet–climate interactions under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing simulated with a complex Earth System Model – Climate Dynamics 31:665-690 doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0369-7 – Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie – https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-008-0369-7.pdf – 6 autores
     “The increase of surface temperature due to reduced topographic heights causes a strong acceleration of the decay of the ice sheet in the long term. Other feedbacks between ice sheet and atmosphere are not important for the mass balance of the GrIS until it is reduced to 3/4 of the original size. From then, the reduction in the albedo of Greenland strongly accelerates the decay of the ice sheet.”
916. Andrew J. Christ et al (2021) – A multimillion-year-old record of Greenland vegetation and glacial history preserved in sediment beneath 1.4 km of ice at Camp Century – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 118:e2021442118 doi:10.1073/pnas.2021442118 – Department of Geology + Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington – 18 autores
     “Enriched stable isotopes of pore-ice suggest precipitation at lower elevations implying ice-sheet absence. Plant macrofossils and biomarkers in the sediment indicate that paleo-ecosystems from previous interglacial periods are preserved beneath the GrIS … The unique subglacial sedimentary record from Camp Century documents at least two episodes of ice-free, vegetated conditions, each followed by glaciation.”
917. Johannes Feldmanna and Anders Levermann (2015) – Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1512482112 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Institute of Physics, Potsdam University – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/112/46/14191.full.pdf
     “Whether this localized destabilization will yield a full discharge of marine ice from West Antarctica, associated with a global sea-level rise of more than 3 m, or whether the ice loss is limited by ice dynamics and topographic features, is unclear. Here we show that in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, a local destabilization causes a complete disintegration of the marine ice in West Antarctica.”
918. James Hansen et al (2016) – Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous – Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 15:3761–3812 doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 – Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute – https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf – 19 autores
     “Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth’s energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean’s surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration.”
919. Sunke Schmidtko et al (2014) – Multidecadal warming of Antarctic waters – Science 346:1227-1231 doi:10.1126/science.1256117 – 05/12/2014 – Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia + GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel – http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~andrewt/publications/Schmidtko_etal_Science14_Full.pdf – 4 autores «Decadal trends in the properties of seawater adjacent to Antarctica are poorly known, and the mechanisms responsible for such changes are uncertain. Antarctic ice sheet mass loss is largely driven by ice shelf basal melt, which is influenced by ocean-ice interactions and has been correlated with Antarctic Continental Shelf Bottom Water (ASBW) temperature. We document the spatial distribution of long-term large-scale trends in temperature, salinity, and core depth over the Antarctic continental shelf and slope. Warming at the seabed in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas is linked to increased heat content and to a shoaling of the mid-depth temperature maximum over the continental slope, allowing warmer, saltier water greater access to the shelf in recent years. Regions of ASBW warming are those exhibiting increased ice shelf melt.»
920. Cedric Gaucherel and Vincent Moron (2016) – Potential stabilizing points to mitigate tipping point interactions in Earth’s climate – International Journal of Climatology 37:399–408 doi:10.1002/joc.4712 – 30/03/2016 – French Institute of Pondicherry, Ecology department, IFP – CNRS, India
     “We demonstrate the stronger effect of decreasing rules (i.e. mitigating connected TPs) over other rule types, thus suggesting the critical role of possible ‘stabilizing points’ that are yet to be identified and studied.”
921. Nico Wunderling et al (2020) – Íbid.
     “Cascades are predominantly initiated by the polar ice sheets and mediated by the AMOC. This also implies that the negative feedback loop between Greenland and the AMOC might possibly not be able to stabilise the climate system, a possibility that was raised in earlier work using a binary model approach ”
922. Sajedeh Marjani, Omid Alizadeh-Choobari and Parviz Irannejad (2019) – Frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events under global warming – Climate Dynamics 53:5799–5813 doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04902-1 – Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran
     «It is found that the number of very strong El Niño events slightly increases under global warming, while the rate of increase in the number of very strong La Niña events is greater than that of very strong El Niño events. Analysis based on the modified Cai index indicates a slight decrease in the number of extreme El Niño events and a slight increase in the number of extreme La Niña events under global warming. Thus, results of several previous studies which concluded that the number of extreme El Niño events nearly doubles under global warming are not supported by results of this study.»
923. Jun Meng et al (2020) – Complexity-based approach for El Niño magnitude forecasting before the spring predictability barrier – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1917007117 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/117/1/177.full.pdf – 8 autores
     “Despite the development of various dynamical and statistical prediction models in the recent decades, the “spring predictability barrier” remains a great challenge for long-lead-time (over 6 mo) forecasting. To overcome this barrier, here we develop an analysis tool, System Sample Entropy (SysSampEn), to measure the complexity (disorder) of the system composed of temperature anomaly time series in the Niño 3.4 region … Our framework presented here not only facilitates long-term forecasting of the El Niño magnitude but can potentially also be used as a measure for the complexity of other natural or engineering complex systems.”
924. Wenju Cai et al (2014) – Increasing frequency of extreme El Nino events due to greenhouse warming – Nature Climate Change 4:111–116 doi:10.1038/nclimate2100 – CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Researc + Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China – https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2100.pdf – 14 autores
     “In summary, our result of greenhouse-induced increased occurrence of extreme El Niño events is in stark contrast with previous findings of no consensus in El Niño change; our robust results arise from the use of process-based metrics … With a projected large increase in extreme El Niño occurrences, we should expect more occurrences of devastating weather events, which will have pronounced implications for twenty-first century climate.”
925. Mojib Latif, Vladimir A. Semenov & Wonsun Park (2015) – Super El Niños in response to global warming in a climate model – Climatic Change 132:489-500 doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1439-6 – GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research + University of Kiel; A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics + P.P Shirshov Institute of Oceanolog + Institute of Geography RAS, Moscow – https://bit.ly/3c0k95v
     “Extraordinarily strong El Niño events, such as those of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998, cause havoc with weather around the world … An important factor causing El Niño intensification is warming of the western Pacific warm pool, which strongly enhances surface zonal wind sensitivity to eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. This in conjunction with larger and more zonally asymmetric equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat content supports stronger and longer lasting El Niños. The most intense events, termed Super El Niños, drive extraordinary global teleconnections which are associated with exceptional surface air temperature and rainfall anomalies over many land areas.”
926. Bin Wang et al (2019) – Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1911130116 – Department of Atmospheric Sciences + International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii; Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2019/10/15/1911130116.full.pdf – 8 autores
     “If the currently observed background changes continue under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent strong El Niño events are anticipated. The models’ uncertainty in the projected equatorial zonal SST gradients, however, remains a major roadblock for faithful prediction of El Niño’s future changes.”
927. Sijia Lou et al (2019) – Black carbon increases frequency of extreme ENSO events – Journal of Climate 32:8323–8333 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0549.1 – Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory – https://bit.ly/3eHKneO – 7 autores
     “Since the preindustrial era, black carbon (BC) emissions have substantially increased in the Northern Hemisphere … In this study … we show that increases in BC emissions from both the midlatitudes and Arctic weaken latitudinal temperature gradients and northward heat transport, decrease tropical energy divergence, and increase sea surface temperature over the tropical oceans, with a surprising consequential increase in the frequency of extreme ENSO events.”
928. Kazumi Ozaki & Christopher T. Reinhard (2021) – The future lifespan of Earth’s oxygenated atmosphere – Nature Geoscience 14:1138–142 doi:10.1038/s41561-021-00693-5 – 01/03/2021 – Department of Environmental Science, Toho University + NASA Nexus for Exoplanet System Science (NExSS)
     “Apart from the Amazon rainforest, other elements are far less influenced by ENSO. This can be observed when looking at the most frequent tipping cascade of size two and at temperatures above 3
     C (Fig. 6(e)), which almost exclusively consist of cascades between ENSO and the Amazon rainforest, which in turn are almost only triggered by ENSO at this temperature rage.”
929. J.A. Marengo and J.C. Espinoza (2020) – Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts – International Journal of Climatology 36:1033-1050 doi:10.1002/joc.4420 – Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais, Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação, Sao Paulo
     “While various severe droughts in the region have occurred during El Niño events (1926, 1983, 1998), we cannot generalize that El Niño is responsible for all droughts in Amazonia, nor point to La Niña as responsible for all floods in Amazonia. The tropical Atlantic also plays a major role in the rainfall regime in the region, such as in the droughts of 1963 and 2005, both occurring during non-El Niño years.”
930. Matthew Taylor – Climate crisis hits ‘worst case scenario’ levels – Environment Agency head – The Guardian, 23/02/2021 – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/23/climate-crisis-hitting-worst-case-scenarios-warns-environment-agency-head
     “The climate emergency is already hitting “worst case scenario” levels … Warning that this is not “science fiction”, Sir James Bevan said on Tuesday that in recent years several of the “reasonable worst case scenarios” had happened in the UK … Much more extreme weather will kill more people through drought, flooding, wildfires and heatwaves than most wars have … the net effects will collapse ecosystems, slash crop yields, take out the infrastructure that our civilisation depends on, and destroy the basis of the modern economy and modern society.”
931. Colin Goldblatt and Andrew J. Watson (2012) – The runaway greenhouse: implications for future climate change, geoengineering and planetary atmospheres – Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 370: doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0004 – School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria; School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia – https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2012.0004
     “The ultimate climate emergency is a ‘runaway greenhouse.”
932. Charles Koven – Scientists explain what New York Magazine article on “The Uninhabitable Earth” gets wrong – Climate Feedback, 15/07/2019 – Research Scientist, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab – https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/scientists-explain-what-new-york-magazine-article-on-the-uninhabitable-earth-gets-wrong-david-wallace-wells/
     “Most of that methane is from recently photosynthesized carbon rather than older permafrost sources, and most of the carbon released from the older permafrost sources is released as either carbon dioxide or dissolved organic carbon rather than methane. So, while uncertainty on this issue remains high, and permafrost thaw is a potentially strong feedback process, this feedback seems likely to be dominated by carbon dioxide rather than methane.”
933. Robert Scribbler – Ignoring the Arctic Methane Monster: Royal Society Goes Dark on Arctic Observational Science – Robert Scribbler, 01/10/2015 – https://robertscribbler.com/2014/10/15/ignoring-the-arctic-methane-monster-royal-society-goes-dark-on-arctic-observational-science/
     “Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov (on behalf of more than 30 scientists): To our dismay, we were not invited to present our data at the Royal Society meeting.“
934. Gavin Schmidt – The best case for worst case scenarios – Real Climate, 26/02/2019 – Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies – http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/02/the-best-case-for-worst-case-scenarios/
     “But some things can be examined and ruled out. Imminent massive methane releases that are large enough to seriously affect global climate are not going to happen (there isn’t that much methane around, the Arctic was warmer than present both in the early Holocene and last interglacial and nothing similar has occurred). Neither will a massive oxygen depletion event in the ocean release clouds of hydrogen sulfide poisoning all life on land. Insta-freeze conditions driven by a collapse in the North Atlantic circulation (cf. “The Day After Tomorrow”) can be equally easily discounted.”
935. Angela G. Marusiak et al (2021) – The Deployment of the Seismometer to Investigate Ice and Ocean Structure (SIIOS) in Northwest Greenland: An Analog Experiment for Icy Ocean World Seismic Deployments – Seismological Research Letters doi:10.1785/0220200291 – Geology Department, University of Maryland College Park + Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology – 13 autores
     “During the summer of 2018, the SIIOS team deployed a seismic experiment on the Greenland ice sheet situated, approximately, 80 km north of Qaanaaq, Greenland … We performed an active‐source experiment and a passive‐listening experiment that lasted for, approximately, 12 days …For future icy ocean world missions, a deck‐coupled seismometer would perform similarly to a ground‐based deployment across the most frequency bands.»
936. P.-A. Dessandier et al (2021) – Ice-sheet melt drove methane emissions in the Arctic during the last two interglacials – Geology doi:10.1130/G48580.1 – Centre for Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate (CAGE), Department of Geosciences, The Arctic University of Norway + L’Institut Français de Recherche pour l’Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)–Centre de Bretagne, Laboratoire Environnement Profond – 6 autores
     “Circum-Arctic glacial ice is melting in an unprecedented mode, and release of currently trapped geological methane may act as a positive feedback on ice-sheet retreat during global warming … Here, we argue that … methane leakage occurred upon the abrupt Eurasian ice-sheet wastage during terminations of the last (Weichselian) and penultimate (Saalian) glaciations … Analogous to this model, with the current acceleration of the Greenland ice melt, instabilities of existing methane reservoirs below and nearby the ice sheet are likely.»
937. Judith A. Rosentreter et al (2021) – Half of global methane emissions come from highly variable aquatic ecosystem sources – Nature Geoscienc e doi:10.1038/s41561-021-00715-2 Centre for Coastal Biogeochemistry, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University + Yale School of the Environment, Yale University – 14 autores
     “Here, we present a metadata analysis of methane fluxes from all major natural, impacted and human-made aquatic ecosystems. Our revised bottom-up global aquatic methane emissions combine diffusive, ebullitive and/or plant-mediated fluxes from 15 aquatic ecosystems … We find aquatic ecosystems contribute (median) 41% or (mean) 53% of total global methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources.”
938. Graham Readfearn – Earth’s climate monsters could be unleashed as temperatures rise – The Guardian, 05/10/2018 – – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2018/oct/06/earths-climate-monsters-could-be-unleashed-as-temperatures-rise
     “This gets us to another big issue, says [Will] Steffen, because climate models don’t include some of these feedbacks … He tells me: ‘I think the dominant linear, deterministic framework for assessing climate change is flawed, especially at higher levels of temperature rise’.”
939. Merritt R. Turetsky et al (2020) – Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw – Nature Geoscience 13:138–143 doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0526-0 – Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph + Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), University of Colorado Boulder – 14 autores
     “Permafrost region soils store ~60% of the world’s soil carbon in 15% of the global soil area [refs]. Current estimates report 1,000 ± 150 PgC in the upper 3 m of active layer and permafrost soils (hereafter, permafrost carbon) and around another 500 PgC in deeper yedoma and deltaic deposits [refs] … These changes in the sensitivity of the abrupt thaw feedback, both over time and in response to different warming scenarios, point to a limitation of the linear feedback framework for quantifying the warming from these processes … We believe the first-order abrupt thaw estimates presented here are valid but probably conservative.”
940. Susan M. Natali al (2019) – Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region – Nature Climate Change 9:852–857 doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8 – 21/10/2019 – Woods Hole Research Center – https://munin.uit.no/bitstream/10037/17795/3/article.pdf – 75 autores
     “Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter …  We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year) … Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.”
941. Timothy M. Lenton (2012) – Arctic Climate Tipping Points – AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 41:10-22 doi10.1007/s13280-011-0221-x – College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter + UK and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
     “Yet more recent work has suggested that at least one large area of permafrost could exhibit coherent threshold behaviour. The frozen loess (windblown organic material) of northeastern Siberia (150–168 E and 63–70 N), also known as Yedoma, is deep (up to 25 m) and has an extremely high carbon content (2–5 … This regional frozen carbon store could undergo self-sustaining collapse, due to an internally generated source of heat released by biochemical decomposition of the carbon, triggering further melting in a runaway positive feedback … Once underway … The collapse would be irreversible.”
942. Sergey A. Zimov, Edward A. G. Schuur, F. Stuart Chapin III (2006) – Permafrost and the Global Carbon Budget – Science 312:1612-1613 doi:10.1126/science.1128908 – North-East Scientific Station, Pacific Institute for Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences; Department of Botany, University of Florida; Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska
     “We estimate the carbon reservoir in frozen yedoma to be ~500 Gt … Another ~400 Gt of carbon are contained in nonyedoma permafrost (excluding peatlands) … and 50 to 70 Gt reside in the peatbogs of western Siberia (4). These preliminary estimates indicate that permafrost is a large carbon reservoir, intermediate in size between those of vegetation and soils.”
943. Timothy M. Lenton (2012) – Íbid.
     “To pass the tipping point requires an estimated >9 ºC of regional warming (Khvorostyanov et al. 2008a, b), which may be accessible this century under high emissions scenarios (Fig. 3).”
944. Jonathan E. Nichols & Dorothy M. Peteet (2019) – Rapid expansion of northern peatlands and doubled estimate of carbon storage – Nature Geoscience 12:917–921 doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0454-z – Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
     “Additional data and new algorithms for reconstructing the history of peat carbon accumulation and the timing of peatland initiation increased the estimate of total northern peat carbon stocks from 545 Gt to 1,055 Gt of carbon. Further, the post-glacial increases in peatland initiation rate and carbon accumulation rate are more abrupt than previously reported … we suggest that deep ocean upwelling was the most important mechanism for balancing the peatland sink and maintaining the observed stability.”
945. Merritt R. Turetsky et al (2020) – Íbid.
     “Permafrost region soils store ~60% of the world’s soil carbon in 15% of the global soil area1–3. Current estimates report 1,000 ± 150 PgC in the upper 3 m of active layer and permafrost soils (hereafter, permafrost carbon) and around another 500 PgC in deeper yedoma and deltaic deposits [refs]. ”
946. A. Vaks et al (2020) – Palaeoclimate evidence of vulnerable permafrost during times of low sea ice – Nature 577:221–225 doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1880-1 – Geological Survey of Israel, Jerusalem + Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford – 9 autores
     “The long-term cooling of the Arctic Ocean that occurred between around 1,350 ka and around 400 ka eventually reached a temperature threshold for the formation of perennial Arctic sea ice, which stabilized the presence of continuous permafrost in Siberian regions where it remains today. This record indicates that, under future open-water Arctic scenarios, as predicted for later this century30, this stabilization is likely to be removed, accelerating the northerly retreat of continuous permafrost. ”
947. Eleanor J. Burke et al (2018) – CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2°C – Environmental Research Letters 13:024024 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 – Met Office Hadley Centre – https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138/pdf – 4 autores
     “This positive climate-carbon feedback will reduce the natural carbon sinks and thus lower anthropogenic CO2 emissions compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement … The inclusion of permafrost carbon will add to the demands on negative emission technologies which are already present in most low emissions scenarios.»
948. Boris K. Biskaborn et al (2019) – Permafrost is warming at a global scale – Nature Communications 10:264 doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4 – Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-08240-4.pdf – 48 autores
     “Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged. ”
949. Sybren Drijfhout et al (2015) – Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1511451112 – Research and Development, Weather and Climate Modeling, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute – https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/112/43/E5777.full.pdf – 9 autores
     “For Arctic tundra, HadGEM2-ES projects a rapid thawing of permafrost; total soil moisture content decreases quickly as the ice in the soil melts and moisture drains away. This type of abrupt change has not been described before. Shortly after 2100, soil water content declines abruptly, caused by a rapid decrease of ice fraction in the soil. This leaves the soil moisture, now in liquid phase, more susceptible to drought conditions in a changing climate, as it can be evaporated much more easily than frozen water … With less ice, however, the rest of the soil potentially warms more quickly, triggering a positive feedback in the soil water storage. To our knowledge, HADGEM2-ES is the only model that accounts explicitly for an ice fraction in the soil. Therefore, other models could not simulate this mechanism. ”
950. Christina Schädel – The irreversible emissions of a permafrost ‘tipping point’ – Carbon Brief, 12/02/2020 – Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University + Lead coordinator of the Permafrost Carbon Network + Co-leader of the Permafrost Collaboration Team, Interagency Arctic Research Policy (IARPC) – https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the-irreversible-emissions-of-a-permafrost-tipping-point
     “One quarter of the landmass of the northern hemisphere is underlain by permafrost, which acts like Earth’s gigantic freezer and keeps enormous amounts of organic matter frozen. This organic material includes the remnants of dead plants, animals and microbes that accumulated in the soil and were frozen into permafrost thousands of years ago.”
951. BI ranked as best business school in Norway – BI Business School, 07/12/2020 – – https://www.bi.edu/about-bi/news/2020/12/bi-ranked-as-best-business-school-in-norway/ – autores “Financial Times ranks BI as Norway’s best business school for the fifth straight year in a row in its yearly European Business Schools Ranking 2020. BI ranks as number 49 compared with number 36 last year, the drop can be explained by BI’s withdrawal from one of the programme rankings used to calculate the overall score … Due to concerns for BI’s alumni during the global lockdown earlier this year, with increased job insecurity and challenging domestic circumstances, BI decided not to participate in FT’s Master in Management ranking. Each of the programme rankings measures the schools’ quality on a number of indicators ranging from salaries, career progress, female faculty to international course experience and mobility.”
952. Ulrich Golüke (2018) – Scenarios: How to create them and Why you should – Books On Demand; 3. edición – Visiting professor at the Business School of Lausanne – ISBN-13 : 978-3842344945 – 102 Págs.
     “Reseña del editor: A very short, readable and highly practical how-to guide to all you ever wanted to know about running your own scenario projects, but were afraid to ask. Based on 20 years of scenario experience working with people in corporations, NGOs, schools and universities.”
953. Jorgen Randers & Ulrich Goluke (2020) – An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020 – Scientific Reports 10:18456 doi:10.1038/s41598-020-75481-z – BI Norwegian Business School – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75481-z.pdf
     “The risk of points-of-no-return, which, once surpassed lock the world into new dynamics, have been discussed for decades. Recently, there have been warnings that some of these tipping points are coming closer and are too dangerous to be disregarded. In this paper we report that in the ESCIMO climate model the world is already past a point-of-no-return for global warming. In ESCIMO we observe self-sustained melting of the permafrost for hundreds of years, even if global society stops all emissions of man-made GHGs immediately.”
954. Gunnar Myhre, Drew Shindell et al (2013) – Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing – Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, 27/09/2013 – https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf – 38 autores
     “Currently, water vapour has the largest greenhouse effect in the Earth’s atmosphere. However, other greenhouse gases, primarily CO2, are necessary to sustain the presence of water vapour in the atmosphere. Indeed, if these other gases were removed from the atmosphere, its temperature would drop sufficiently to induce a decrease of water vapour, leading to a runaway drop of the greenhouse effect that would plunge the Earth into a frozen state. So greenhouse gases other than water vapour provide the temperature structure that sustains current levels of atmospheric water vapour.” (p. 666)
955. Jorgen Randers & Ulrich Goluke (2020) – Íbid.
     “Difficult to detect, but of great significance for the years beyond 2150, surface albedo starts a slow and smooth decline as the ice and snow cover melts, making the planet darker and leading to more absorption of short-wave (SW) radiation in the surface ”
956. Jorgen Randers et al (2016) – A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100 – Earth System Dynamics 7:831–850 doi:10.5194/esd-7-831-2016 – BI Norwegian Business School – https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/7/831/2016/esd-7-831-2016.pdf – 4 autores
     «The response of the authors to the reviewers is satisfactory. The manuscript is accepted for final publication in ESD. Congratulations to the authors. Sincerely, Krishnan»
957. Jorgen Randers & Ulrich Goluke (2020) – Íbid.
     “While the developments to 2150 are understandable, developments in ESCIMO beyond 2150 are more surprising (counter-intuitive). As shown in Fig. 1 the temperature once more starts rising. The surprising fact is that this rise takes place 50 years after man-made emissions have ceased, and after the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has been significantly reduced through absorption in oceans and biomass. ”
958. Jorgen Randers & Ulrich Goluke (2020) – Íbid.
     “In a highly coupled feedback model like ESCIMO it is the chain of events, closing in on itself, that matters. Even after no more man-made GHG are emitted, this cycle/chain continues on its own. The process is self-sustaining, at least until all carbon is released from permafrost and all ice is melted. ”
959. Jorgen Randers et al (2016) – Íbid:
     “Processes included in ESCIMO … 22. melting of permafrost (proportional to the surface temperature in C, (as long as there is permafrost left) ”
960. When permafrost thaws – Nature Geoscience 13:765 doi:10.1038/s41561-020-00668-y –  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-020-00668-y.pdf
     “The rate at which permafrost thaws can also affect how much carbon is released … This abrupt thawing process can release up to 190% more GHG emissions compared to gradual thaw7. A model simulating this abrupt thaw predicts that while this type of thaw will only occur in less than 20% of the permafrost zone, it can increase permafrost carbon release by about 50% [ref]. This concerning type of thaw, however, has not been accounted for in Earth-system models that are used to simulate the climate impacts of permafrost thawing.”
961. Jorgen Randers & Ulrich Goluke (2020) – Íbid.
     “We did experiments with ESCIMO (see Supplement Figure 13) to explore (contra-factually) in what year man-made emissions must stop to avoid self-reinforcing melting of the permafrost. The answer is that all man-made emissions would have had to be cut to zero sometime between 1960 and 1970—when global warming was still below some + 0.5 °C. ”
962. Jorgen Randers & Ulrich Goluke (2020) – Íbid.
     “Self-sustained melting of the permafrost is a robust phenomenon in ESCIMO. It only disappears when manmade emissions are stopped counterfactually as early as in the 1960es. Or by choosing parameter values that do not recreate historical developments. We encourage other model builders to explore these conclusions in their models, and report on their findings. ”
963. Jorgen Randers & Ulrich Goluke (2020) – Íbid.
     “There are many (ca 100) such parameters in ESCIMO. They all have independent physical meaning, and each got a numerical value based on information from the literature … Our conclusion is that parameter variation has a strong effect on the absolute level of the future temperature in ESCIMO. But much more important, Fig. 3 shows that moderate variation in parameter values does not remove the self-sustained thawing of the permafrost … This broad pattern of development (in system dynamics language: this behaviour mode) remains the same. This is consistent with the system dynamics literature, which argues that it is normally not possible to predict future events in complex systems, while it is possible to say something meaningful about future dynamics (future behaviour modes).”
964. Raphael Neukom et al (2019) – No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era – Nature 571:550–554 doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1401-2 – Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern – 5 autores
     “This lack of spatiotemporal coherence indicates that preindustrial forcing was not sufficient to produce globally synchronous extreme temperatures at multidecadal and centennial timescales. By contrast, we find that the warmest period of the past two millennia occurred during the twentieth century for more than 98 per cent of the globe. This provides strong evidence that anthropogenic global warming is not only unparalleled in terms of absolute temperatures5, but also unprecedented in spatial consistency within the context of the past 2,000 years.”
965. William F. Ruddiman et al (2015) – Defining the epoch we live in – Science 348:38-39 doi:10.1126/science.aaa7297 – Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia – http://anthropoceneinstitute.com/sites/default/files/Defining%20the%20Epoch%20We%20Live%20In.pdf – 4 autores “Does it really make sense to define the start of a human-dominated era millennia after most forests in arable regions had been cut for agriculture…? ”
966. James Hansen and Makiko Sato (2016) – A Better Graph – Columbia University, 29/09/2016 – Columbia University Earth Institute; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies – http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2016/20160926_BetterGraph.pdf
     “This graph also switches to 1880-1920 as a base period, because of the widespread interest in the magnitude of warming relative to pre-industrial time. Alternatively, one might argue for an earlier base period, say 1700-1800, but the data are much poorer then and the difference in global mean is only about +0.1°C ± 0.1°C (1880-1920 slightly warmer than 1700-1800), so it is of no practical importance.”
967. Jürgen Randers and Ulrich Golüke (2019) – Author Correction: An earth system model shows self-sustained thawing of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020 – Scientific Reports 10:18456 doi:10.1038/s41598-020-75481-z – BI Norwegian Business School – https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41598-020-75481-z/MediaObjects/41598_2020_75481_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
     “The Authors now recognise that the acronym for the model used in the Article and originally reported in1 is culturally insensitive and inappropriate. The Authors did not intend to insult any ethnic groups by using the acronym for this software model. Additionally, the original version of the Article contained an error. The text referred to permafrost melting where it should refer to permafrost thawing (which is a correct name for this process). ”
968. Ken Rice – A little domain knowledge can go a long way – …and Then There’s Physics, 14/11/2020 – https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2020/11/14/a-little-domain-knowledge-can-go-a-long-way/
     “My main point, which I’ve taken a while to get to, is that there are a number of obvious issues with what is presented in this paper that anyone who is working in this field should notice. It’s hard to see how anyone who has developed an earth system model wouldn’t notice these obvious problems, and it’s particularly difficult to understand how any competent reviewer could let these pass.”
969. Expert reaction to study using a simulation to estimate how long global warming might continue for if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to zero – Science Media Center, 12/11/2020 – – https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-study-using-a-simulation-to-estimate-how-long-global-warming-might-continue-for-if-greenhouse-gas-emissions-are-reduced-to-zero/
     “Prof Sir Brian Hoskins, Chair of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, said: “This is the sort of investigation with a toy model that should be done and is fun, but should not be given this sort of publicity until the processes involved have been investigated using more complex models and representations.”.”
970. Jorgen Randers & Ulrich Goluke (2020) – Íbid.
     “In Scenario 1 the temperature passes a temporary peak around 2075 at + 2.3 °C above pre-industrial times. The temperature then falls for 75 years (2075–2150) to + 2 °C. There are two reasons … Furthermore, the concentration of CO2 declines (from its all-time peak of 450 ppm in 2050)”
971. Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) – The MESSy Consortium – Visitado el 03/03/2021 – http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/~PatrickJoeckel/ESCiMo/
972. David Andersen et al (2007) – How the System Dynamics Society came to be: a collective memoir – System Dynamics Review 23:219-227 doi:10.1002/sdr.367 – President-Elect at the founding of the System Dynamics Society
     “The 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society in Boston, MA, marks the 50th anniversary of our field and the silver anniversary of the System Dynamics Society … Some persons recall 1983 and others 1982 as the founding date … This paper brings together recollections from a number of these early workers in the field in an attempt to align their collective mental models.”
973. Jorgen Randers (2008) – Global collapse—Fact or fiction? – Futures 40:853-864 doi:10.1016/j.futures.2008.07.042 – Department of Law and Governance, BI Norwegian Business School
     “The phenomenon of overshoot and collapse – and the possibility of global collapse – is still relevant and worthy of study. Global collapse triggered by ever growing emissions of greenhouse gases is still conceivable in the first half of the 21st century, because of the unfortunate combination of global decision delays and self-reinforcing feedback in the climate system … Global collapse – defined as a situation where more than one billion people lose one half of what they hold dear in less than 20 years – may well be hidden from the headlines and the history books. The 21st century is more likely to be described as a period of intense local strife, institutional breakdown, regionalization and general malaise. The root cause – humanity overstepping an environmental limit – may well be lost in the clutter of historical detail. Global Collapse could remain fiction, even if it proved to be fact.”
974. Jorgen Randers and Paul Gilding – The One Degree War Plan – Journal of Global Responsibility 1:170-188 doi:10.1108/20412561011039762 – Professor of Climate Strategy Norwegian School of Management BI Oslo; Core Faculty, University of Cambridge – Programme for Sustainability Leadership Sydney, Australia – http://theclimatepsychologist.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/One-Degree-War-Plan.pdf
     “Our work, described in this paper, leads us to conclude humanity can still prevent a process of runaway, self-reinforcing climate change and maintain a level of global control – i.e. a decision making framework and capacity to affect actions at a significant global scale. It will, however, require a level of mobilisation so far beyond the current debate that it will seem incomprehensible to most readers. And yet such mobilisation is possible and could result in rapid and spectacular cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and eventually lead to a stable climate. We firmly believe humanity can rise to the occasion, as evidenced by the mobilisation for, and the results of, WWII.”
975. Jørgen Randers (2012) – 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years – Chelsea Green Publishing – Professor of Climate Strategy, BI Norwegian Business School; Sustainability Council, The Dow Chemical Company – ISBN-13 : 978-1603584210 – 304 Págs.
     “Before contraction sets in, humanity will have emitted enough greenhouse gases from its energy production and use that the planet will be on its way toward runaway climate change in the last third of the twenty-first century … In 2052 the world will be looking back at forty years of accelerating climate damage, caused by continuous global warming, and bracing itself for the possibility of self-reinforcing, and therefore runaway, climate change.” (p. 123,260)
976. Jørgen Randers (2012) – Íbid.
     “My forecast shows in quantitative detail how I believe the global average temperature will increase over the next couple of generations. The average temperature will go from plus 0.8°C relative to preindustrial times in 2012 to plus 2.0°C in 2052, and a maximum of plus 2.8°C in 2080.” (p. 276)
977. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea et al (2021) – Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth – Nature Climate Change 11:306–312 doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01000-1 – Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University – 5 autores
     “The historical influence of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on that [agricultural productivity] growth has not been quantified …  Our baseline model indicates that ACC has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 7 years of productivity growth … We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change.»
978. Jorgen Randers & Ulrich Goluke (2020) – Íbid.
     “In order to check whether our assumptions lead to reasonable results, we compared the output from ESCIMO with the output from other models, as reported in McGuire et al [ref]. The comparison is halting, since the temperature path in Scenario 1 differs from the path in the RCP4.5 scenario, which the other models use. We found that ESCIMO Scenario 1 generates a thawing of 2 million km2 of permafrost by 2300, compared to 3–5 in other models. And that ESCIMO Scenario 1 releases an accumulated 175 billion tons of carbon (GtC), all from thawing permafrost, by 2300, compared to plus 66–minus 70 in other models … The comparison with other models seems to indicate that ESCIMO in Scenario 1 releases more carbon than other models, but it needs further investigation to decide whether this is because the RCP4.5 scenario differs from Scenario 1 in the centuries beyond 2100. ”
979. Zebedee R. J. Nicholl et al (2020) – Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: Introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response – Geoscientific Model Development 13: doi:10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020 – Australian–German Climate and Energy College, The University of Melbourne + School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne – https://bit.ly/3t9MDQg – 29 autores
     “Reduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, and are directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement the results of more comprehensive Earth system models. To date, evaluation of RCMs has been limited to a few independent studies. Here we introduce a systematic evaluation of RCMs in the form of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). We expect RCMIP will extend over multiple phases, with Phase 1 being the first”. In Phase 1, we focus on the RCMs’ global-mean temperature responses, comparing them to observations, exploring the extent to which they emulate more complex models and considering how the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 varies across the RCMs.”
980. Jorgen Randers & Ulrich Goluke (2020) – Íbid.
     “To stop the self-sustained warming in ESCIMO, enormous amounts of CO2 have to be extracted from the atmosphere.”
981. Jorgen Randers & Ulrich Goluke (2020) – Íbid.
     “Finally, we explored another strategy to stop self-sustained thawing. We asked how much CO2 humanity must remove from the atmosphere every year from 2020 in order to avoid self-sustained temperature rise in the centuries ahead. The answer, in ESCIMO, proved to be at least 33 GtCO2e per year, for example through direct CO2 capture or biomass CCS … In other words, building 33.000 big CCS plants and keep them running for ever. This is technically feasible but would be hugely expensive. Cheaper opportunities exist to stop self-sustained global warming (through various forms of geo-engineering), but these will have unintended and undesired side effects beyond lowering the temperature. ”
982. Marina Garcés (2017) – Nova il·lustració radical – Editorial Anagrama – Universidad de Zaragoza; Espai en Blanc – ISBN-13: 978-8433916150 – 80 Págs.
     “El ‘solucionisme’ és la coartada d’un saber que ha perdut l’atribució de fer-nos millors, com a persones i com a societat. Ja no hi creiem i per això demanem solucions i res més que solucions. Ja no comptem de fer-nos millors a nosaltres mateixos sinó que només aspirem a obtenir més o menys privilegis en un temps que no va enlloc, perquè ha renunciat a apuntar a un futur millor.” (p. 8)
983. Samantha K.Stanley et al (2021) – From anger to action: Differential impacts of eco-anxiety, eco-depression, and eco-anger on climate action and wellbeing – The Journal of Climate Change and Health 1:100003 doi:10.1016/j.joclim.2021.100003 – Research School of Psychology, Australian National University – https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667278221000018/pdfft?md5=212970c4962ecf8a781ec54cacc130cc&pid=1-s2.0-S2667278221000018-main.pdf – 4 autores
     “Research documents the experiences of depression and anxiety evoked by climate change, but little attention has been given to frustration and anger, or to untangling the effects of different emotional responses to the climate crisis on human and planetary health … we found that experiencing eco-anger predicted better mental health outcomes, as well as greater engagement in pro-climate activism and personal behaviours. Eco-anxiety and eco-depression were less adaptive, relating to lower wellbeing.”