Joseph Romm – Hansen 1: Sea Level Rise – Climate Progress – 09/08/2007 – http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/09/hansen-1-sea-level-rise/ “Comment: that whatever we do, CO2 levels will still exceed 305 ppm 500 years from now. 305 ppm was about the level CO2 peaked at during the Eemian. In addition to cutting emissions to slow warming, we must also prepare for Eemian climate and sea level.”
Ben Santer et al (2007) – Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 104:15248–15253 doi:10.1073 pnas.0702872104 – 25/09/2007 – Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory – 17 autores – Peer reviewed “Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/m2 per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone … Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually suggest that this fingerprint ‘‘match’’ is primarily due to humancaused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earth’s atmosphere.”
Aradhna K. Tripati et al (2009) – Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability over Major Climate Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years – Science doi:10.1126/science.1178296 – 08/10/2009 – Departments of Earth and Space Sciences and Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge; Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology – 3 autores – Peer reviewed
“We use boron/calcium ratios in foraminifera to estimate pCO2 during major climate transitions of the last 20 million years. During the Middle Miocene, when temperatures were ~3 to 6°C warmer and sea level 25 to 40 meters higher than present, pCO2 was similar to modern levels. Decreases in pCO2 were synchronous with major episodes of glacial expansion during the Middle Miocene (~14 to 10 million years ago; Ma) and Late Pliocene (~3.3 to -2.4 Ma).”
Dáithí A. Stone and Myles R. Allen. (2005) – The end-to-end attribution problem: From emissions to impacts – Climatic Change 71:303-318 doi:10.1007/s10584-005-6778-2 – 38609 – Departments of Physics (AOPP) and Zoology, Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford – http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/~daithi/papers/StoneDA_AllenMR_2005a.pdf– Peer reviewed
“When a damaging extreme meteorological event occurs, the question often arises as to whether that event was caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The question is more than academic, since people affected by the event will be interested in recurring damages if they find that someone is at fault … A solution lies in recognising the similarity with the cause-effect issue in the epidemiological field. The approach there is to consider the changes in the risk of the event occurring as attributable, as against the occurrence of the event itself. Inherent in this approach is a recognition that knowledge of the change in risk as well as the amplitude of the forcing itself are uncertain. Consequently, the fraction of the risk attributable to the external forcing is a probabilistic quantity. Here we develop and demonstrate this methodology in the context of the climate change problem.”
Martin Beniston (2004) – The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations. The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations – Geophysical Research Letters 31 L02202 doi:10.1029/2003GL018857 – 16/01/2004 – Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg – Peer reviewed “The summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe since at latest AD 1500 (refs), and unusually large numbers of heat-related deaths were reported in France, Germany and Italy (ref). Statistical features of the 2003 heat wave for the Swiss site of Basel are investigated and compared to both past, 20th century events and possible future extreme temperatures based on model simulations of climatic change. For many purposes, the 2003 event can be used as an analog of future summers in coming decades in climate impacts and policy studies.”
Ricardo Garca-Herrera et al (2010) – A Review of the European Summer Heat Wave of 2003 – Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology 40:267-306 doi:10.1080/10643380802238137 – Departamento Física de la Tierra II, Facultad de CC Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid – 5 autores “As shown in this paper, the summer mean temperatures of 2003 were extremely likely the warmest for more than half a millennium at European and Mediterranean scale (Luterbacher et al., 2004; Xoplaki et al., 2006). However, the most outstanding temperature anomalies and associated impacts on human health and ecosystems occurred during the first fortnight of August (EHW03). It was caused by an anomalously persistent northerly displacement of the Atlantic Subtropical High, rather than a standard blocking pattern as defined by Rex (1950). It seems undoubtedly that this temperature anomaly was amplified by a severe soil moisture deficit originated in the previous months, as a consequence of below average precipitation in the previous winter and spring. While some studies suggest an important role played by high SSTs over the Mediterranean Sea, the North Atlantic and Indian Ocean in the generation and persistence of EHW03, other analysis suggest that SSTs have played a marginal role in this event.”
Jean-Marie Robine et al (2007) – Report on excess mortality in Europe during summer 2003 – EU Community Action Programme for Public Health – 28/02/2007 – Inserm, Health and Demography, CRLC, University of Montpellier – http://ec.europa.eu/health/ph_projects/2005/action1/docs/action1_2005_a2_15_en.pdf – 5 autores
«In total, more than 80,000 additional deaths were recorded in 2003 in the twelve countries concerned by excess mortality compared to the 1998‐2002 period. Whereas 70,000 of these additional deaths occurred during the summer, still over 7,000 occurred afterwards. Nearly 45,000 additional deaths were recorded in August alone, as well as more than 11,000 in June, more than 10,000 in July and nearly 5,000 in September. The mortality crisis of early August extended over the two weeks between August 3rd and 16th. 15,000 additional deaths were recorded in the first week and nearly 24,000 in the second. The excess mortality in this second week reached the exceptional value of 96.5% in France and over 40% in Portugal, Italy, Spain and Luxembourg. Excess mortality exceeded 20% in Germany, Switzerland and Belgium and 10% in all the other countries.»
Pendiente
Peter A. Stott et al (2004) – Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003 – Nature 432:610:614 doi:10.1038/nature03089 – 25/08/2005 – Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, University of Reading – 3 autores – Peer reviewed “Anthropogenic warming trends in Europe imply an increased probability of very hot summers … it seems likely that past human influence has more than doubled the risk of European mean summer temperatures as hot as 2003, and with the likelihood of such events projected to increase 100-fold over the next four decades, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that potentially dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system is already underway.”
Climate science statement from the Met Office, NERC and the Royal Society – Natural Environment Research Council – 24/11/2009 – http://www.nerc.ac.uk/press/releases/2009/29-climate.asp– Peer reviewed “The UK is at the forefront of tackling dangerous climate change, underpinned by world class scientific expertise and advice … We expect some of the most significant impacts of climate change to occur when natural variability is exacerbated by long-term global warming, so that even small changes in global temperatures can produce damaging local and regional effects. Year on year the evidence is growing that damaging climate and weather events — potentially intensified by global warming — are already happening and beginning to affect society and ecosystems. This includes: In the UK, heavier daily rainfall leading to local flooding such as in the summer of 2007; Increased risk of summer heat waves such as the summers of 2003 across the UK and Europe; Around the world, increasing incidence of extreme weather events with unprecedented levels of damage to society and infrastructure. This year’s unusually destructive typhoon season in South East Asia, while not easy to attribute directly to climate change, illustrates the vulnerabilities to such events; Sea level rises leading to dangerous exposure of populations in, for example, Bangladesh, the Maldives and other island states; Persistent droughts, leading to pressures on water and food resources, and the increasing incidence of forest fires in regions where future projections indicate long term reductions in rainfall, such as South West Australia and the Mediterranean. These emerging signals are consistent with what we expect from our projections, giving us confidence in the science and models that underpin them. In the absence of action to mitigate climate change, we can expect much larger changes in the coming decades than have been seen so far.”
Andrew E. Kramer – Russia, Crippled by Drought, Bans Grain Exports – The New York Times – 05/08/2010 – http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/06/world/europe/06russia.html?_r=1&hp “Wheat prices have soared by about 90 percent since June because of the drought in Russia and parts of the European Union, as well as floods in Canada, and the ban pushed prices even higher. Exports from Ukraine, another major exporter, are down sharply this year.”
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La humanidad se encuentra frente a una de las mayores disyuntivas que cabe imaginar. El sistema climático terrestre parece haber sido definitivamente desestabilizado, mientras la inmensa mayoría de la población vive ajena a un fenómeno llamado a marcar nuestras vidas de forma determinante y abrumadora. Comunidad científica, medios de comunicación y clase política se encuentran aturdidos por el fenómeno y sin respuestas adecuadas a la magnitud del desafío. Cuando las élites fracasan, es la hora de la gente.
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