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1. Gaia Vince – How to survive the coming century – New Scientist, 25/02/2009 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126971.700-how-to-survive-the-coming-century.html
   “According to models, we could cook the planet by 4 °C by 2100. Some scientists fear that we may get there as soon as 2050. If this happens, the ramifications for life on Earth are so terrifying that many scientists contacted for this article preferred not to contemplate them (…)”
2. World Energy Outlook 2008 – International Energy Agency – 578 pages, ISBN 978-92-64-04560-6 – http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/2008.asp
   “Without a change in policy, the world is on a path for a rise in global temperature of up to 6°C… the OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto the path to 450-ppm trajectory, even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero … It is uncertain whether the scale of the transformation envisaged is even technically achievable, as the scenario assumes broad deployment of technologies that have not yet been proven. The technology shift, if achievable, would certainly be unprecedented in scale and speed of deployment.”
3. Catherine Brahic – Energy Agency warns of 6 °C rise in temperatures – New Scientist 06/11/2008 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn15144-energy-agency-warns-of-6-c-rise-in-temperatures.html
   “In its 2008 World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency says the 2009 Copenhagen climate summit will have to set ambitious carbon-limiting caps and that the energy sector must play a key role in making this possible … IPCC issued its forecasts of how rises between 1°C and 5°C would change the environment. A rise of 6 °C was off the charts.”
4. World Energy Outlook 2009 – International Energy Agency – 696 pages, ISBN 978-92-64-06130-9 – 10/11/2009 – http://www.iea.org/W/bookshop/add.aspx?id=388
   “The ‘World Energy Outlook 2009’ delivers a simple, stark message: if the world continues on the basis of today’s energy policies, the climate change impacts will be severe. Energy, which accounts for two-thirds of today’s greenhouse gases, is at the heart of the problem – and so must form the core of the solution.”
5. Mark Lynas (2008) – Six Degrees. Our Future on a Hotter Planet – The National Geographic Society, HarperCollins, 2008- Resumen en
   http://www.marklynas.org/2007/4/23/six-steps-to-hell-summary-of-six-degrees-as-published-in-the-guardian, 23/04/2007
6. Marc Lynas – Six Degrees wins prestigious Royal Society prize – Marc Lynas blog 18/06/2008 – http://beta.marklynas.org/2008/6/18/six-degrees-wins-presitigious-royal-society-prize
   “Much to the surprise of its author, Six Degrees has scooped the prestigious Royal Society Science Books Prize, triumphing over such strong contenders as Steve Jones’s ‘Coral: A pessimist in paradise’, and J. Craig Venter’s ‘A Life Decoded’.”
7. V. Ramanathan, Y. Feng (2008) – On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead – Proceedeing of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 105:14245-14250 – 23/11/2008 – Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego – Peer Reviewed
   “About 90% or more of the rest of the committed warming of 1.6°C will unfold during the 21st century, determined by the rate of the unmasking of the aerosol cooling effect by air pollution abatement laws and by the rate of release of the GHGs-forcing stored in the oceans. The accompanying sea-level rise can continue for more than several centuries. Lastly, even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4 °C”
8. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2008) – Global warming: Stop worrying, start panicking? – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 105: 14239–14240 doi: 10.1073/pnas.0807331105 – 23/09/2008 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – Peer Reviewed
   “My conclusion is that we are still left with a fair chance to hold the 2°C line, yet the race between climate dynamics and climate policy will be a close one … However, the quintessential challenges remain, namely bending down the global Kyoto-GHG output curve in the 2015–2020 window (further procrastination would render necessary reduction gradients too steep thereafter) and phasing out carbon dioxide emissions completely by 2100. This requires an industrial revolution for sustainability starting now.”
9. George Monbiot – If we behave as if it’s too late, then our prophecy is bound to come true – The Guardian, 17/03/2009 – http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/mar/17/monbiot-copenhagen-emission-cuts
   “Quietly in public, loudly in private, climate scientists everywhere are saying the same thing: it’s over. The years in which more than 2 ºC of global warming could have been prevented have passed, the opportunities squandered by denial and delay. On current trajectories we’ll be lucky to get away with 4 ºC. Mitigation (limiting greenhouse gas pollution) has failed; now we must adapt to what nature sends our way. If we can”
10. Peter A. Stott et al (2004) – Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003 – Nature 432:610:614 – 02/12/2004 – Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, University of Reading – Peer Reviewed
    “Anthropogenic warming trends in Europe imply an increased probability of very hot summers … it seems likely that past human influence has more than doubled the risk of European mean summer temperatures as hot as 2003, and with the likelihood of such events projected to increase 100-fold over the next four decades, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that potentially dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system is already underway.”
11. Martin Beniston (2004) – The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations. The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations – Geophysical Research Letters 31, L02202 doi: 10.1029/2003GL018857 – Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg – Peer Reviewed
    “The summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe since at latest AD 1500 (refs), and unusually large numbers of heat-related deaths were reported in France, Germany and Italy (ref).  Statistical features of the 2003 heat wave for the Swiss site of Basel are investigated and compared to both past, 20th century events and possible future extreme temperatures based on model simulations of climatic change. For many purposes, the 2003 event can be used as an analog of future summers in coming decades in climate impacts and policy studies.”
12. Emily Black et al (2004) – Factors contributing to the summer 2003 European heatwave – Weather 59:217–223 – http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=2409 – Peer Reviewed
    “The summer of 2003 has shown that Europe is vulnerable to the effects of heatwaves on human health. A number of concomitant factors contributed to the high excess mortality in some countries, such as the unexpected length and intensity of the heatwave, a lack of preparedness of healthcare and social systems for such an extreme event and the lack of community-based intervention plans.”
13. Coralie Ravault (Cooord.) – Impact sanitaire de la vague de chaleur d’août 2003 en France. Bilan et perspectives – Département maladies chroniques et traumatismes. Département santé environnement – Octobre 2003 – http://www.invs.sante.fr/publications/2003/bilan_chaleur_1103/vf_invs_canicule.pdf
    “Aux Etats-Unis, la National Association of Medical Examiners a proposé de noter ‘coup de chaleur’ (heat stroke) ou ‘hyperthermie’ (hyperthermia) comme cause de décès d’un sujet (16) : 1) lorsque la température corporelle au moment du décès est au moins égale à 40,6°C ou; 2) si la température corporelle au moment du décès est inférieure à 40,6°C, lorsque des tentatives ont été entreprises pour faire baisser la température ou lorsque le sujet avait présenté une altération de l’état mental et un taux sérique élevé d’enzymes hépatiques et musculaires.”
14. R. Swapet al (1992) – Saharan dust in the Amazon basin – Tellus B 44:133– 149 doi: 10.1034/j.1600-0889.1992.t01-1-00005.x – Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia – Peer Reviewed
    “Saharan dust is shown to enter the Central Amazon Basin (CAB) in bursts which accompany major wet season rain systems. Low-level horizontal convergence feeding these rain systems draws dust from plumes which have crossed the tropical Atlantic under the large-scale circulation fields … This dependence should be reflected by expansions and contractions of the Amazon rain forest in direct relationship to expansions and contractions of the Sahara/Sahel … Any strategy designed to preserve the Amazonian rain forest or any part thereof should equally concern itself with the inter-relationship between the rain forest, global climate and arid zones well removed from Amazonia.»
15. Michael Reilly – Arctic Tundra Holds Global Warming Time Bomb – Discovery News 25/08/2008 – http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2008/08/25/warming-arctic-tundra.html
    “Nothing more than accumulated leaves, roots and other plant matter, the unassuming detritus is rich in carbon, giving it the power to dramatically enhance the effects of global warming should it ever get into the atmosphere. But for now it mostly lies dormant, in cold storage in the permafrost of Siberia, Alaska, and Canada. That’s starting to change, according to some scientists.”
16. E. J. Dlugokencky et al (2009) – Observational constraints on recent increases in the atmospheric CH₄ burden – Geophysical Research Letters 36 L18803, doi: 10.1029/2009GL039780 – NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory – Peer Reviewed
    “Measurements of atmospheric CH₄ from air samples collected weekly at 46 remote surface sites show that, after a decade of near-zero growth, globally averaged atmospheric methane increased during 2007 and 2008. During 2007, CH₄ increased by 8.3 ± 0.6 ppb. CH₄ mole fractions averaged over polar northern latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere increased more than other zonally averaged regions. In 2008, globally averaged CH₄ increased by 4.4 ± 0.6 ppb; the largest increase was in the tropics, while polar northern latitudes did not increase … Near-zero CH4 growth in the Arctic during 2008 suggests we have not yet activated strong climate feedbacks from permafrost and CH4 hydrates.”
17. James E. Hansen (2008) – Climate Threat to the Planet: The Venus Syndrome – Bjerknes Lecture, American Geophysical Union, San Francisco – 17/12/2008
    “The Venus syndrome is the greatest threat to the planet, to humanity’s continued existence… Now the danger that we face is the Venus syndrome. There is no escape from the Venus Syndrome. Venus will never have oceans again.”
18. Anne Barret – No easy way out – Nature Reports Climate Change doi: 10.1038/climate.2009.106 – 15/10/2009 – http://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0911/full/climate.2009.106.html – Peer Reviewed
    “The conference, which took place 28–30 September, marks a shift in experts’ hopes of keeping average global temperatures to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels — widely considered the threshold for ‘dangerous climate change’. ‘Emissions have not gone down globally, as people had hoped they would do’ … Recent greenhouse gas emissions match the trajectory for most extreme scenario used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But this scenario, A1FI, has received little study compared with its more moderate counterparts … But without swift and steep curbs on emissions, temperatures could rise as much as 4 °C by 2060, according to Betts’ new study … UN experts have previously estimated costs of $49–171 billion a year for all adaptation.”
19. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber – Solving the climate dilemma: The budget approach – German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) – Berlin, 2009 – 58 pp.- ISBN 3-936191-27-1 – http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2009_en.pdf – Peer Reviewed
    “Courageous political action is now called for – either that or an honest declaration of surrender in the face of the size of the climate challenge and the years lost in the cause of climate protection since the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro of 1992.”
20. Mark Hertsgaard – A scary new climate study will have you saying ‘Oh, shit!’ – Grist.Beta 13/10/2009 – http://www.grist.org/article/2009-10-13-a-scary-new-climate-study-will-have-you-saying-oh-shit/
    “Even the “brutal” timeline of the WBGU study, Schellnhuber cautioned, would not guarantee staying within the 2º C target. It would merely give humanity a two out of three chance of doing so—“worse odds than Russian roulette,” he wryly noted.  “But it is the best we can do.” To have a three out of four chance, countries would have to quit carbon even sooner. Likewise, we could wait another decade or so to halt all greenhouse emissions, but this lowers the odds of hitting the 2 ºC target to fifty-fifty. “What kind of precautionary principle is that?” Schellnhuber asked.”

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