Mark Peplow (2004) – ‘Global dimming’ may stop the Earth overheating. Look forward to a darker world – Nature 19/05/2004 – Peer reviewed “It’s official: the world is getting darker … Since the late 1950s, scientists have observed a 2-4% reduction in the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface”
Beate G. Liepert (2002) – Observed reductions of surface solar radiation at sites in the United States and worldwide from 1961 to 1990 – Geophysical Research Letters 29:1421 doi: 10.1029/2002GL014910 – 24/05/2002 – Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University – Peer reviewed “Surface solar radiation revealed an estimated 7 W/m2 or 4% decline at sites worldwide from 1961 to 1990. Here I find that the strongest declines occurred in the United States sites with 19 W/m2 or 10%.”
T.M.L. Wigley (1991) – Could reducing fossil-fuel emissions cause global warming? – Nature 349:503-506 | doi:10.1038/349503a0 – 07/02/1991 – Peer reviewed “I examine the sensitivity of the climate system to simultaneous changes in SO2 and CO2 emissions, as might occur if controls were imposed on fossil-fuel use. Over the next 10–30 years, it is conceivable that the increased radiative forcing due to SO2 concentration changes could more than offset reductions in radiative forcing due to reduced CO2 emissions.”
Meinrat O. Andreae, Chris D. Jonesa and Peter M. Cox (2005) – Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future – Nature 435:1187-1190 – Max Planck Institute for Chemistry; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology – Peer reviewed “Strong aerosol cooling in the past and present would then imply that future global warming may proceed at or even above the upper extreme of the range projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”
Stephen E. Schwartz, Robert J. Charlson & Henning Rodhe (2007) – Quantifying climate change – too rosy a picture? – Nature Reports Climate Change 2:23-24 doi: 10.1038/climate.2007.22 – Published online: 27/06/2007 – Peer reviewed “The estimated forcing for the several components combined — 1.6 W m−2 over the industrial period — is nearly the same as that from CO2 emissions alone, because some of the warming effects of greenhouse gases are being cancelled out by the cooling effects of anthropogenic aerosols. Cooling, or negative forcing, occurs primarily through direct effects such as scattering of light in cloud-free air and indirect effects such as enhanced reflection of light by clouds. These aerosol forcings are much less certain.”
J. L. Jimenez, et al.(2009) – Evolution of Organic Aerosols in the Atmosphere Science Science 326:1525-1529 DOI: 10.1126/science.1180353 – 11/12/2009 – 64 authors – Peer reviewed “The combination of measurements and the modeling framework implies that most OA is an intermediate state of organic material, between primary emissions of reduced species and highly oxidized volatile products (CO and CO2). Future models, inventories, and measurements will almost certainly need to account for the dynamic sources and sinks of OA to accurately predict regional and global OA distributions and properties and thus the associated health and climate effects.”
Gunnar Myhre (2009) – Estimates of the Direct Aerosol Effect Consistency Between Satellite-Derived and Modeled – Science 325:187 -190 DOI: 10.1126/science.1174461 – Peer reviewed “In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, the direct aerosol effect is reported to have a radiative forcing estimate of –0.5 watt per square meter (W m−2), offsetting the warming from CO2 by almost one-third. The uncertainty, however, ranges from –0.9 to –0.1 W m−2, which is largely due to differences between estimates from global aerosol models and observation-based estimates, with the latter tending to have stronger (more negative) radiative forcing. This study demonstrates consistency between a global aerosol model and adjustment to an observation-based method, producing a global and annual mean radiative forcing that is weaker than –0.5 W m−2, with a best estimate of –0.3 W m−2. The physical explanation for the earlier discrepancy is that the relative increase in anthropogenic black carbon (absorbing aerosols) is much larger than the overall increase in the anthropogenic abundance of aerosols.”
Peter A. Stott et al (2008) – Observed climate change constrains the likelihood of extreme future global warming – Tellus 60B, 76–81 – Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit), Met Office, Meteorology Building, University of Reading – Peer reviewed “If cooling due to present-day levels of atmospheric aerosol is suppressing global temperatures, future reductions in aerosols emissions would allow the full greenhouse gas induced warming to be realised. The many uncertainties in aerosol physics and chemistry mean that a large range of present-day aerosol cooling is possible which could imply a large climate sensitivity, extremely large future warming and the increased risk of catastrophic consequences.”
V. Ramanathan and Y. Feng (2008) – On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 105: 14245–14250 – Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego – Peer reviewed “The estimated warming of 2.4°C(1.4°C to 4.3°C) is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols … Even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4°C.”
T. Novakov et al (2003) – Large historical changes of fossil-fuel black carbon aerosols – Geophysical Research Letters 30:1324 doi: 10.1029/2002GL016345 – 26/03/2003 – Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory – Peer reviewed “Estimates of the current anthropogenic BC climate forcing are of the order of 1/3 to 1/2 of the current CO2 forcing. The uncertainty in the change of climate forcing in the next few decades is probably larger for BC than for CO2. For example, IPCC [ref] scenarios have BC increasing during the next 50 years, while others [ref] argue that BC could decrease. [ref] Improved knowledge of BC emissions and atmospheric amount as a function of time is needed to evaluate the role of BC in climate change and the potential effect of achieving BC reductions in climate forcing.”
James Hansen et al – Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications – Science 308:1431-1435 – 03/06/2005 – 15 authors – Peer reviewed “This imbalance is confirmed by precise measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years. Implications include (i) the expectation of additional global warming of about 0.6 ºC without further change of atmospheric composition; (ii) the confirmation of the climate system’s lag in responding to forcings, implying the need for anticipatory actions to avoid any specified level of climate change; and (iii) the likelihood of acceleration of ice sheet disintegration and sea level rise.”
James Lovelock (2006) – The Revenge of Gaia – Edició en català sota el títol: La venjança de Gaia – Columna Edicions, 2007 – 260 pp. – ISBN: 978-84-6640792-2 “El rerefons científic d’aquest programa apareixia en un article de Nature del 2005, que comptava amb el distingit científic alemany M.O. Andreae entre els autors … La boirina dels aerosols … per si sola, provoca un refredament global de 2 ºC a 3 ºC.”
David Archer (2005) – The fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time – Journal of Geophysical Research – Revised 07/01/2007 – Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago – Peer reviewed
“The mean lifetime of anthropogenic CO2 is dominated by the long tail, resulting in a range of 30-35 kyr. The long lifetime of fossil fuel carbon release implies that the anthropogenic climate perturbation may have time to interact with ice sheets, methane clathrate deposits, and glacial/interglacial climate dynamics.”
A su vez, más de una cincuentena de personalidades apoyaron una Declaración al respecto. La emisión masiva de esta declaración, por ejemplo aquí, llevó a Facebook a levantar su veto.
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Este blog ha sido agraciado con el 1r Premio de la Fundación Biodiversidad en la categoría de comunicación del cambio climático - blogs (convocatoria 2010)
La humanidad se encuentra frente a una de las mayores disyuntivas que cabe imaginar. El sistema climático terrestre parece haber sido definitivamente desestabilizado, mientras la inmensa mayoría de la población vive ajena a un fenómeno llamado a marcar nuestras vidas de forma determinante y abrumadora. Comunidad científica, medios de comunicación y clase política se encuentran aturdidos por el fenómeno y sin respuestas adecuadas a la magnitud del desafío. Cuando las élites fracasan, es la hora de la gente.
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El impacto emocional del cambio climático en las personas informadas - Centro Nacional de Educación Ambiental, Ministerio de Agricultura y Medio Ambiente, Valsaín (Segovia), 06/11/2012
Ètica econòmica, científica i periodística del canvi climàtic – Biblioteca Pública Arús, Barcelona, 19/09/2011
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