- Las imágenes más impactantes – El País, 30/10/2012 – http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/10/30/videos/1351591123_763182.html
“Nueva York paralizada, 60 millones de personas en estado de emergencia y más de una docena de muertos. Es el balance que por el momento deja un huracán —rebajado en suelo estadounidense a tormenta tropical— que llegó a la costa este a las 20.30, hora local, del lunes.” - Kerry Emanuel (2005) – Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years – Nature 436:686-688 doi:10.1038/nature03906 – Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf “Theory and modelling predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency3, 4 and shows no trend. Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and—taking into account an increasing coastal population—a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.”
- Quirin Schiermeier – Hurricanes are getting fiercer – Nature News doi:10.1038/news.2008.1079 – http://www.nature.com/news/2008/080903/full/news.2008.1079.html
“Global warming blamed for growth in storm intensity … Scientists have come up with the firmest evidence so far that global warming will significantly increase the intensity of the most extreme storms worldwide … The team calculates that a 1 ºC increase in sea-surface temperatures would result in a 31% increase in the global frequency of category 4 and 5 storms per year: from 13 of those storms to 17. Since 1970, the tropical oceans have warmed on average by around 0.5 ºC. Computer models suggest they may warm by a further 2 ºC by 2100.” - James B. Elsner et al (2008) – The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones – Nature 455 92-95 doi:10.1038/nature07234 – Department of Geography, Florida State University – http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articles/nature07234-s1_Supplementary.pdf
“We find significant upward trends for wind speed quantiles above the 70th percentile, with trends as high as 0.3 ± 0.09 m s-1 yr-1 (s.e.) for the strongest cyclones…. results are qualitatively consistent with the hypothesis that as the seas warm, the ocean has more energy to convert to tropical cyclone wind.” - Morris A. Bender et al (2010) – Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes – Science 327:454-458 doi:10.1126/science.1180568 – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory – 7 authors
“Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20°N.” - Thomas R. Knutson et al (2010) – Tropical cyclones and climate change – Nature Geoscience 3:157-163 doi:10.1038/ngeo779 – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA – http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/ngeo779.html – 10 authors
“However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies.” - Yohei Yamada et al (2010) – Projection of changes in tropical cyclone activity and cloud height due to greenhouse warming: Global cloud-system-resolving approach – Geophysical Research Letters 37 L07709 doi:10.1029/2010GL042518 – Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology – https://www1.ethz.ch/iac/edu/courses/master/modules/cloud_dynamics/box_feeder/tutorials/Artikel_Uebung_6/Yamada-et-al-GRL2010-TC-in-future-using-a-global-CRM.pdf – 5 authors
“The results support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report; reduction in global frequency but increase in more intense TCs. Consistent with recent studies, frequency is reduced over the North Atlantic due to intensified vertical wind shear. Over the Pacific, frequency is almost unchanged and the genesis location shifts eastward under the prescribed El-Niño like sea surface temperature change. With the GCRM’s advantage of representing mesoscale properties, we find that the cloud height becomes taller for more intense TCs and that this relationship is strengthened with GW.” - Jennifer L. Catto et al (2011) – Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate in the HiGEM High-Resolution Climate Model – Journal of Climate 24:5336-5352 doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4181.1 – Department of Meteorology, University of Reading – http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~swrshaff/papers/catto2011.pdf – 3 authors
“Total cyclone numbers are found to decrease over the Northern Hemisphere with increasing CO2 forcing. Changes in cyclone intensity are found using 850-hPa vorticity, mean sea level pressure, and 850-hPa winds. The intensity of the Northern Hemisphere cyclones is found to decrease relative to the control.” - P.J. Webster et al (2005) – Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment – Science 309:1844-1846 doi:10.1126/science.1116448 – School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology – http://curry.eas.gatech.edu/currydoc/Webster_Science311.pdf – 4 authors
“We examined the number of tropical cyclones and cyclone days as well as tropical cyclone intensity over the past 35 years, in an environment of increasing sea surface temperature. A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5. The largest increase occurred in the North Pacific, Indian, and Southwest Pacific Oceans, and the smallest percentage increase occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean. These increases have taken place while the number of cyclones and cyclone days has decreased in all basins except the North Atlantic during the past decade.” - Michael E. Mann et al (2009) – Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years – Nature 460:880-885 doi:10.1038/nature08219 – Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University – http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/uploads/media/M_Mann_nature08219-1.pdf – 5 authors
“The medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results from the reinforcing effects of La-Niña-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.” - Aslak Grinsted et al (2012) – Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923 – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1209542109 – State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University – 3 authors
”Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity are hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here we construct an independent record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity on the basis of storm surge statistics from tide gauges. We demonstrate that the major events in our surge index record can be attributed to landfalling tropical cyclones; these events also correspond with the most economically damaging Atlantic cyclones. We find that warm years in general were more active in all cyclone size ranges than cold years. The largest cyclones are most affected by warmer conditions and we detect a statistically significant trend in the frequency of large surge events (roughly corresponding to tropical storm size) since 1923. In particular, we estimate that Katrina-magnitude events have been twice as frequent in warm years compared with cold years (P < 0.02).” - Ning Lin et al (2012) – Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change – Nature Climate Change 2:462–467 doi:10.1038/nclimate1389 – Published online: 14/02/2012 – Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – http://ddd.uab.cat/pub/prepub/2011/hdl_2072_169269/Pr1012.pdf – 4 authors
“As general circulation models (GCMs) cannot simulate hurricane surges directly, we couple a GCM-driven hurricane model with hydrodynamic models to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events under projected climates and assess surge threat, as an example, for New York City (NYC). Struck by many intense hurricanes in recorded history and prehistory, NYC is highly vulnerable to storm surges. We show that the change of storm climatology will probably increase the surge risk for NYC; results based on two GCMs show the distribution of surge levels shifting to higher values by a magnitude comparable to the projected sea-level rise (SLR). The combined effects of storm climatology change and a 1 m SLR may cause the present NYC 100-yr surge flooding to occur every 3–20 yr and the present 500-yr flooding to occur every 25–240 yr by the end of the century.” - Jennifer A. Francis and Stephen J. Vavrus (2012) – Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes – Geophysical Research Letters 39 L06801 doi:10.1029/2012GL051000 – Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University; Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison – http://marine.rutgers.edu/~francis/pres/Francis_Vavrus_2012GL051000_pub.pdf – 2 authors
“Two effects are identified that each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper-level flow: 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land. Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.” - Vladimir A. Semenov (2012) – Meteorology: Arctic warming favours extremes – Nature Climate Change 2:315–316 doi:10.1038/nclimate1502 – Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR)
“The twenty-first century was marked by a number of extreme weather events over northern continents. Amplified warming in the Arctic region and associated changes in atmospheric dynamics may provide a clue for understanding the origin of these recent extremes. - Shuting Yang and Jens H. Christensen (2012) – Arctic sea ice reduction and European cold winters in CMIP5 climate change experiments – Geophysical Research Letters 39, L20707, doi:10.1029/2012GL053338 – Published online: 20/10/2012 – Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre – http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2012GL053338.shtml
“European winter climate and its possible relationship with the Arctic sea ice reduction in the recent past and future as simulated by the models of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) is investigated, with focus on the cold winters. While Europe will warm overall in the future, we find that episodes of cold months will continue to occur and there remains substantial probability for the occurrence of cold winters in Europe linked with sea ice reduction in the Barents and Kara Sea sector. A pattern of cold-European warm-Arctic anomaly is typical for the cold events in the future, which is associated with the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. These patterns, however, differ from the corresponding patterns in the historical period, and underline the connection between European cold winter events and Arctic sea ice reduction.” - William D. Nordhaus (2010) – The Economics of Hurricanes And Implications of Global Warming – Climate Change Economics 1:1-20 doi:10.1142/S2010007810000054 – Yale University – http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/documents/Nordhaus_Hurricanes_CCE_1_1.pdf
“This study examines the economic impacts of US hurricanes. The major conclusions are the following: First, there are substantial vulnerabilities to intense hurricanes in the Atlantic coastal United States. Damages appear to rise with the ninth power of maximum wind speed. Second, greenhouse warming is likely to lead to stronger hurricanes, but the evidence on hurricane frequency is unclear. We estimate that the average annual US hurricane damages will increase by $10 billion at 2005 incomes (0.08 percent of GDP) due to global warming. However, this number may be underestimated by current storm models. Third, 2005 appears to have been a quadruple hurricane outlier, involving a record number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones, a large fraction of intense storms, a large fraction of the intense storms making landfall in the United States, and an intense storm hitting the most vulnerable high-value region in the country.” - Hiram Levy II et al (2008) – Strong sensitivity of late 21st century climate to projected changes in short-lived air pollutants – Geophysical Research 113 D06102 doi:10.1029/2007JD009176 – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA – http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/hl0801.pdf – 5 authors
“This study examines the impact of projected changes (A1B “marker” scenario) in emissions of four short-lived air pollutants (ozone, black carbon, organic carbon, and sulfate) on future climate. Through year 2030, simulated climate is only weakly dependent on the projected levels of short-lived air pollutants, primarily the result of a near cancellation of their global net radiative forcing. However, by year 2100, the projected decrease in sulfate aerosol (driven by a 65% reduction in global sulfur dioxide emissions) and the projected increase in black carbon aerosol (driven by a 100% increase in its global emissions) contribute a significant portion of the simulated A1B surface air warming relative to the year 2000: 0.2 °C (Southern Hemisphere), 0.4 °C globally, 0.6 °C (Northern Hemisphere), 1.5–3 °C (wintertime Arctic), and 1.5–2°C (∼40% of the total) in the summertime United States … The regional patterns of warming from short-lived species are similar to the patterns for well-mixed greenhouse gases (global pattern correlation coefficient of 0.8) with the strongest warming occurring over the summer continental United States, Mediterranean Sea, and southern Europe and over the winter Arctic.” - Ben B. B. Booth et al (2012) – Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability – Nature doi:10.1038/nature10946 – Met Office Hadley Centre – 5 authors
“Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought.” - Meinrat O. Andreae et al (2005) – Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future – Nature 435:1187-1190 doi:10.1038/nature03671 – Max Planck Institute for Chemistry; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology – http://irina.eas.gatech.edu/EAS_spring2006/Andreae2005.pdf – 3 authors
“Strong aerosol cooling in the past and present would then imply that future global warming may proceed at or even above the upper extreme of the range projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change” - Veerabhadran Ramanathan and Y. Feng (2008) – On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 105:14245-14250 doi:10.1073/pnas.0803838105 – Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego – http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/doc/zpq038084771p.pdf
“About 90% or more of the rest of the committed warming of 1.6°C will unfold during the 21st century, determined by the rate of the unmasking of the aerosol cooling effect by air pollution abatement laws and by the rate of release of the GHGs-forcing stored in the oceans. The accompanying sea-level rise can continue for more than several centuries. Lastly, even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4 °C.” - Stephen M. Gardiner (2006) – A Perfect Moral Storm: Climate Change, Intergenerational Ethics and the Problem of Moral Corruption – Environmental Values 15:397-413 – Published online: 01/08/2006 – Department of Philosophy and Program on Values in Society, University of Washington – http://hettingern.people.cofc.edu/Environmental_Philosophy_Sp_09/Gardner_Perfect_Moral_Storm.pdf
“These three “storms” arise in the global, intergenerational and theoretical dimensions, and I will argue that their interaction helps to exacerbate and obscure a lurking problem of moral corruption that may be of greater practical importance than any of them.” - Stephen Mulvey – Averting a perfect storm of shortages – BBC News, 24/08/2009
“The warning from John Beddington, the UK government’s chief scientific adviser, of a possible crisis in 2030. Specifically, he points to research indicating that by 2030 ‘a whole series of events come together’: The world’s population will rise from 6bn to 8bn (33%); demand for food will increase by 50%; demand for water will increase by 30% and demand for energy will increase by 50%. He foresees each problem combining to create a «perfect storm» in which the whole is bigger, and more serious, than the sum of its parts.”
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La humanidad se encuentra frente a una de las mayores disyuntivas que cabe imaginar. El sistema climático terrestre parece haber sido definitivamente desestabilizado, mientras la inmensa mayoría de la población vive ajena a un fenómeno llamado a marcar nuestras vidas de forma determinante y abrumadora. Comunidad científica, medios de comunicación y clase política se encuentran aturdidos por el fenómeno y sin respuestas adecuadas a la magnitud del desafío. Cuando las élites fracasan, es la hora de la gente.
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