Usted no se lo cree

Ir al artículo

1. Marten Scheffer et al (2001) – Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems – Nature 413:91-596 – doi: 10.1038/35098000 – 11/10/2001- Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University – Peer-reviewed
   “Studies show that a loss of resilience usually paves the way for a switch to an alternative state. This suggests that strategies for sustainable management of such ecosystems should focus on maintaining resilience.”
2. Stephen H. Schneider (2004) – Abrupt Non-Linear Climate Change, Irreversibility and Surprise – Global Environmental Change 14:245–258 – Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University – Peer-reviewed
   “Through examples from ocean circulation and atmosphere–biosphere interactions, this paper demonstrates that external forcings such as increases in GHG concentrations can push complex systems from one equilibrium state to another, with non-linear abrupt change as a possible consequence.”
3. C.S. Holling (1973) – Resilience and stability of ecological systems – Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 4:1-23 – Peer-reviewed
   “Our traditional view of natural systems, therefore, might well be less a meaningful reality than a perceptual convenience … An equilibrium centered view is essentially static and provides little insight into the transient behavior of systems that are not near the equilibrium. Natural, undisturbed systems are likely to be continually in a transient state; they will be equally so under the influence of man. As man’s numbers and economic demands increase, his use of resources shifts equilibrium states and moves populations away from equilibria.”
4. James Hansen et al (2008) – Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? – The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2, 217-231 – Peer-reviewed
   “If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm, but likely less than that.”
5. http://www.350.org/
6. State of the World 2009 – Worldwatch Institute’s – http://www.worldwatch.org/sow09
   “In 1986 the U.N. Environment Programme set up an Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases, which in 1990 reported that a 2-degree warming could be “an upper limit beyond which the risks of grave damage to ecosystems, and of non-linear responses, are expected to increase rapidly.” Also in the late 1980s the Enquete Komission, a joint committee of German parliamentarians and scientists, sought to define acceptable limits. Warming more than 0.1 degree Celsius per decade was seen as especially risky to forest ecosystems, with an overall acceptable maximum warming estimated to be 1–2 degrees Celsius. In 1995 the German government’s Global Change Advisory Council found that 2 degrees Celsius should be the upper limit of “tolerable” warming.”
7. Catherine Brahic – Zero emissions needed to avert ‘dangerous’ warming – New Scientist 11/10/2007 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn12775-zero-emissions-needed-to-avert-dangerous-warming.html
   “A warming of 2 ºC above pre-industrial temperatures is frequently cited as the limit beyond which the world will face «dangerous» climate change. Beyond this level, analysis suggests the continents will cease to absorb more carbon dioxide than they produce.”
8. Andrew C. Revkin – The Two-Degree Solution – The New York Times 09/07/2008 – http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/09/the-two-degree-solution/
   “Kenneth Caldeira: This presents a value judgment as if it’s a scientific conclusion. … We still don’t know for a CO2 doubling whether Earth will warm 2 degrees, 4 degrees or whatever. And we don’t know exactly how the Earth is going to respond to that 2 or 4 degrees of warming. The situation is that we’re entering risky territory and every emission pushes us deeper into that territory faster … Real Climate: Given the [current] damage after only 0.8°C of warming so far, calling 2 ºC a danger limit seems to us pretty cavalier … Setting a limit is a sensible way to collectively deal with a risk… When we set a speed limit at 60 mph, there is no “critical threshold” there – nothing terrible happens if you go to 65 or 70 mph, say. But perhaps at 90 mph the fatalities would clearly exceed acceptable levels. Setting a limit to global warming at 2ºC above … is the official policy target of the EU … But, just like speed limits, it may be difficult to adhere to.”
9. Big Freeze Plunged Europe into Ice Age in Months – ScienceDaily 30/09/2009 – http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091130112421.htm
   “Around 12,800 years ago the northern hemisphere was hit by a mini ice-age, known by scientists as the Younger Dryas, and nicknamed the ‘Big Freeze’, which lasted around 1300 years. Geological evidence shows that the Big Freeze was brought about by a sudden influx of freshwater, when the glacial Lake Agassiz in North America burst its banks and poured into the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans … Patterson and his colleagues have created the highest resolution record of the ‘Big Freeze’ event to date, from a mud core taken from an ancient lake, Lough Monreach, in Ireland. Using a scalpel layers were sliced from the core, just 0.5mm thick, representing a time period of one to three months.”
10. The 2 °C target. Information Reference Document – Background on Impacts, Emission Pathways, Mitigation Options and Costs – Prepared and adopted by EU Climate Change Expert Group ‘EG Science’ – 09/07/2008 “This paper outlines the scientific background for the EU climate protection target – the 2 ºC limit – established by the EU Governments in 1996 and reaffirmed since then by the Environment Council 2003, and European Council, 2005, 2007 … IPCC AR4: Significant global impacts on ecosystems and water resources are likely at global temperature rises of between 1 and 2°C, and the risks of net negative impacts on global food production occur at temperature increases upwards from 2-2.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels.”
11. Pendiente de referenciar
12. James Lovelock (2009) – The Vanishing Face of Gaia. A Final Warning – Allen Lane, Penguin Books – 178 pp – ISBN 978-1-846-14185-0 – p. 34
    “If the model resembles the real Earth then it suggests that stabilization is only possible on Gaia’s terms at 5 ºC hotter than now, or at the previous stable climate about 200 years ago in preindustrial times, or at the seven degrees cooler of a glaciation.”
13. Mark Lynas (2008) – Six Degrees. Our Future on a Hotter Planet – The National Geographic Society, HarperCollins, 2008- Resumen en
    http://www.marklynas.org/2007/4/23/six-steps-to-hell-summary-of-six-degrees-as-published-in-the-guardian, 23/04/2007
14. James E. Hansen (2008) – Climate Threat to the Planet: The Venus Syndrome – Bjerknes Lecture, American Geophysical Union, San Francisco – 17/12/2008
    “The Venus syndrome is the greatest threat to the planet, to humanity’s continued existence… Now the danger that we face is the Venus syndrome. There is no escape from the Venus Syndrome. Venus will never have oceans again.”
15. James Lovelock (2003) – The living Earth – Nature 426:769-770 doi: 10.1038/426769a – 18/12/2003
    “For the past ten million years the Earth’s average surface temperature has covered a similar range between 11 ºC and 16 ºC.”

Ir al artículo