- Blue Planet Prize: The Laureates – The Assahi Glass Foundation – http://www.af-info.or.jp/en/blueplanet/list.html
“Gro Harlem Brundtland; Paul R. Ehrlich; James Hansen; José Goldemberg; Amory Lovins; Gene Likens; James Lovelock; Syukuro Manabe; Robert May; Harold A. Mooney; Karl-Henrik Robèrt; Emil Salim; Gordon Hisashi Sato; Susan Solomon; Nicholas Stern; MS Swaminathan; Bob Watson; Barefoot College; Conservation International; International institute of Environment and Development; International Union for the Conservation of Nature; Jane Lubchenco; Hirofumi Uzawa; Claude Lorius; Joseph L. Sax; Akira Miyawak; Nicholas Shackleton; F. Herbert Bormann; Vo Quy; Gustave Speth.” - James Hansen et al (2011) – The Case for Young People and Nature: A Path to a Healthy, Natural, Prosperous Future – Draft paper – Published online: 04/05/2011 – Columbia University Earth Institute, New York – http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110505_CaseForYoungPeople.pdf – 14 authors
“In contrast to scenarios with continued BAU emissions, Figure 6 (a) shows the scenario with 6% per year decrease of fossil fuel CO2 emissions and 100 GtC reforestation in the period 2031-2080. This scenario yields additional global warming of ~0.3°C. Global temperature relative to the 1880-1920 mean would barely exceed 1°C and would remain above 1°C for only about 3 decades. Thus this scenario provides the prospect that young people, future generations, and other life on the planet would have a chance of residing in a world similar to the one in which civilization developed.” - Michael Le Page – Will you stand up against climate disaster? – New Scientist – Published online: 15/12/2009 – http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/culturelab/2009/12/will-you-stand-up-against-climate-disaster.php
“Your governments are lying through their teeth,” he says. He believes the Kyoto protocol is a dismal failure, and its proposed successors, along with the cap-and-trade schemes favoured by President Barack Obama, have no chance of achieving what is needed either. “Unfortunately, nature and the laws of physics cannot compromise – they are what they are,” he points out. It gets worse. Decades of experience with US governments have led Hansen to believe that the political systems in the US and many other democracies are incapable of delivering effective action, because politicians serve the short-term interests of special interest groups with plenty of money to throw around – like the fossil-fuel industry – rather than the long-term welfare of citizens. Extraordinarily, Hansen thinks civil resistance is now the only way forward. “It is up to you,” he concludes – the third reason his book is so terrifying.” - David Adam – I underestimated the threat, says Stern – The Guardian, 18/04/2008 – http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/apr/18/climatechange.carbonemissions
“He pointed to last year’s reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and new research which shows that the planet’s oceans and forests are soaking up less carbon dioxide than expected. He said: “Emissions are growing much faster than we’d thought, the absorptive capacity of the planet is less than we’d thought, the risks of greenhouse gases are potentially bigger than more cautious estimates and the speed of climate change seems to be faster.” Stern said the new findings vindicated his report, which has been criticised by climate sceptics and some economists as exaggerating the possible damage. “People who said I was scaremongering were profoundly wrong,” he told a conference in London.” - Nicholas Stern (2010) – China’s Growth, China’s Cities and the New Global Low-Carbon Industrial Revolution – Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, Policy paper – Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics – http://www.cccep.ac.uk/Publications/Policy/docs/PPStern_China-industrial-rev_Nov10.pdf –
“Unless the world embarks now on a new energy and industrial revolution it will be very difficult to manage the huge risks of climate change. Business-as-usual for the next few decades will bring a significant chance of global temperatures not seen on the planet for tens of millions of years, long before homo sapiens appeared, with great risks of migration of hundreds of millions of people and extended and severe conflict. However, the new industrial revolution and the transition to low-carbon growth constitute a very attractive path. It is likely to bring 2 or 3 decades of innovative and creative growth and large and growing markets for the pioneers. Low-carbon growth, when achieved, will be more energy-secure, cleaner, safer and more bio-diverse than its predecessors.” - J. Holmberg and K.‐H. Robèrt (2000) – Backcasting from non‐overlapping sustainability principles – a framework for strategic planning – International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology 7:291‐308 – Physical Resource Theory, Chalmers University of Technology and Göteborg University; The Natural Step Foundation – http://www.bth.se/ste/tmslm.nsf/attachments/Holmberg and Robert 2000 – Backcasting from non-overlapping_pdf/$file/Holmberg and Robert 2000 – Backcasting from non-overlapping.pdf
“In order for a society to be sustainable, nature’s functions and diversity are not systematically2: I. … subject to increasing concentrations of substances extracted from the Earth’s crust; II. … subject to increasing concentrations of substances produced by society; III. … impoverished [ref] by over-harvesting or other forms of ecosystem manipulation Together, the three first system conditions give a framework for ecological sustainability. It implies a set of restrictions within which the sustainable societal activities must be incorporated. Based on that reasoning, a first-order principle for the society’s internal turnover of resources is formulated – the fourth principle: IV. …resources are used fairly and efficiently in order to meet basic human needs worldwide.” - Joseph Romm – Rajendra Pachauri endorses 350 ppm, not as IPCC chair but “as a human being” – Climate Progress – Published online: 25/08/2009 – – http://climateprogress.org/2009/08/25/ipcc-chair-rajendra-pachauri-350-ppm-bill-mckibben
“The difference between the two targets is that for 450 ppm, you need to do the 12-14 wedges in four decades. For 350 ppm, you (roughly) need 8 wedges in about two decades plus another 10 wedges over the next three decades (and then have the world go carbon negative as soon as possible after that), which requires a global WWII-style and WWII-scale strategy” - James Hansen – Why I must speak out about climate change – TED, 07/03/2012 – http://www.ted.com/talks/james_hansen_why_i_must_speak_out_about_climate_change.html
“Top climate scientist James Hansen tells the story of his involvement in the science of and debate over global climate change. In doing so he outlines the overwhelming evidence that change is happening and why that makes him deeply worried about the future.” - James D. Hamilton (2009) – Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007–08 – Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Spring 2009:215-259 – Professor of Economics, University of California, San Diego – http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Programs/ES/BPEA/2009_spring_bpea_papers/2009a_bpea_hamilton.pdf
- Contingent valuation – Wikipedia, 06/09/2011 – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_valuation
“Contingent valuation is a survey-based economic technique for the valuation of non-market resources, such as environmental preservation or the impact of contamination. While these resources do give people utility, certain aspects of them do not have a market price as they are not directly sold – for example, people receive benefit from a beautiful view of a mountain, but it would be tough to value using price-based models. Contingent valuation surveys are one technique which is used to measure these aspects. Contingent valuation is often referred to as a stated preference model, in contrast to a price-based revealed preference model. Both models are utility-based. Typically the survey asks how much money people would be willing to pay (or willing to accept) to maintain the existence of (or be compensated for the loss of) an environmental feature, such as biodiversity.” - Sid Perkins (2011) – Capturing CO2 Too Costly to Combat Climate Change? – Science Now – Published online: 05/12/2011 – – http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2011/12/capturing-co2-too-costly-to-comb.html
“Capturing CO2 once it’s in the atmosphere takes about four times the energy generated by burning the fossil fuel in the first place, he notes. Overall, just to capture CO2 would cost at least $1100 per ton, the researchers estimate. That’s a total price tag of at least $33 trillion just to hold atmospheric concentrations of CO2 steady Then, once the gas is captured, even more energy must be expended to compress the gas into a liquid and then dispose of it. And unless the energy needed to drive these processes are carbon-neutral—that is, unless they produce no CO2 emissions of their own—the net result might add CO2 to the atmosphere, not reduce it.” - James Hansen et al (2011) – Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Implications – arXiv:1105.1140v2 – Submitted to Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics – Published online: 26/08/2011 – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies + Columbia University Earth Institute – http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1105/1105.1140.pdf – 4 authors
“In assessing the level of global warming that constitutes DAI, we must bear in mind that estimated climate sensitivity of 3 ± 1°C for doubled CO2, based mainly on paleoclimate data but consistent with models, refers to a case in which sea ice, snow, water vapor, and clouds are included as feedbacks, but ice sheet area, vegetation cover, and non-H2O GHGs are treated as forcings or fixed boundary conditions. On long time scales, and as the present global warming increases, these latter quantities can change and thus they need to be included as feedbacks. Indeed, climate becomes very sensitive on the ice-age time scale, as feedbacks, specifically ice sheet area and GHGs, account for practically the entire global temperature change (17).” - James Hansen – Statement of Political Inclinations – Columbia University, 13/03/2006 – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute – http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2006/Inclinations_20060313.pdf
“Political inclinations should have no impact on science analyses, but in any case the above description of my inclinations is inaccurate. I can be accurately described as moderately conservative. I am registered to vote (in Pennsylvania) as an Independent.” - Max Weber – Wikipedia, 28/01/2010 – http://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Weber
“Segons Max Weber, els polítics tenen dues opcions: actuar segons l’ètica de la convicció a uns valors ètics, religiosos o polítics independentment de les conseqüències de la seua acció, o actuar segons l’ètica de la responsabilitat que ordena pensar en les conseqüències previsibles de la pròpia acció. O sigui, la lògica de la motivació d’un polític es pot orientar bé dins d’una ètica de fins últims vers la consecució d’un ideal, o una ètica de la responsabilitat que realitza un càlcul racional de les probables conseqüències dels seus actes. No es pot prescriure quan s’ha d’optar per la primera i quan per la segona. I tampoc són excloents, sinó complementàries i imprescindibles per una persona amb vocació política. Weber distingia tres tipus purs de lideratge polític, dominació i autoritat: dominació carismàtica (familiar i religiosa), dominació tradicional (patriarques, patrimonials, feudalisme), i dominació legal (llei i estat modern, burocràcia).” - Wiki – Pragmatismo – Wikipedia, 22/01/2012 – http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pragmatismo
“El pragmatismo es una escuela filosófica creada en los Estados Unidos a finales del siglo XIX por Charles Sanders Peirce, John Dewey y William James. Su concepción de base es que sólo es verdadero aquello que funciona, enfocándose así en el mundo real objetivo. Se caracteriza por la insistencia en las consecuencias como manera de caracterizar la verdad o significado de las cosas. El pragmatismo se opone a la visión de que los conceptos humanos y el intelecto representan el significado real de las cosas, y por lo tanto se contrapone a las escuelas filosóficas del formalismo y el racionalismo. También el pragmatismo sostiene que sólo en el debate entre organismos dotados de inteligencia y con el ambiente que los rodea es donde las teorías y datos adquieren su significado. Rechaza la existencia de verdades absolutas, las ideas son provisionales y están sujetas al cambio a la luz de la investigación futura.” - Timothy Luke (2000) – A rough road out of Rio: The right-wing reaction against global environmentalism (En: Nicholas Low, ed. Consuming cities: The urban environment in the global economy after the Rio declaration. New York: Routledge) – In: Nicholas Low, ed. Consuming cities: The urban environment in the global economy after the Rio declaration. New York: Routledge)
“The Rio Declaration’s sense of alarm, then, clearly is not at all shared by many neoliberals and nationalists, who are now the recruits for antiglobalization fundamentalist movements in the United States … Partly a response to global economic competitions, and partly a response to global ecological scarcities, today’s neoliberal and antiglobal readings of the earth’s political economy construct the attainment of national economic growth, security, and prosperity as a zero sum game. Having more material wealth or economic growth in one place, like the U.S.A. or any given locality within its borders, means not having it in other places, namely, rival foreign nations and all of their many local communities. These positions also assume material scarcity is an inflexible constraint; hence, all resources, everywhere and at any time, should be treated as private property whose productive potentials must be subjected ultimately to economic exploitation and not obstructed by ecological regulation.” - Steven Bernstein (2001) – The Compromise of Liberal Environmentalism – Chapter 1: Introduction – Columbia University Press – University of Toronto
“The Earth Summit institutionalized one major pathway from Brundtland. It entrenched the idea that market forces can be compatible with environmental protection and that a liberal economic order is best suited to achieving environment and development goals.”
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El imperativo de encontrar respuestas adecuadas
La humanidad se encuentra frente a una de las mayores disyuntivas que cabe imaginar. El sistema climático terrestre parece haber sido definitivamente desestabilizado, mientras la inmensa mayoría de la población vive ajena a un fenómeno llamado a marcar nuestras vidas de forma determinante y abrumadora. Comunidad científica, medios de comunicación y clase política se encuentran aturdidos por el fenómeno y sin respuestas adecuadas a la magnitud del desafío. Cuando las élites fracasan, es la hora de la gente.
'If the people lead, the leaders will follow'
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