Usted no se lo cree

Table of Contents at May 2021. Temptative; subjected to change

Preface

1: Introduction

Phase I: From reality to its scientific description

Distinguishing between the scientific method and the scientific process

Part I

2: Steps to scientific moderation (1)

Sience values are inherently conservative
Resistance to discovery: the Barber effect
Emotional rejection
Anchorage effect and subsequent gradualism: the principle of minimum surprise

3: Steps to Scientific Moderation (2)

Fear of Personal Consequences: The «John Mercer Effect
The subtle effects of denial pressure

4: Steps to Scientific Moderation (3)

Dynamics of scientific group work
Ambiguity Aversion produces expert restraint

5: Steps to scientific moderation (4): The moderating role of scientific consensus

5.1: How the consensus moderates scientific statements

Technocratic mode and consensus mode

5.2: Moderation at the IPCC

(a): Operation, membership and summaries

Essential features of the IPCC
Membership
Summary by policymakers

(b): Economists of perpetual moderation

Part II

6: Examples of underestimation of the response of the climate system

Melting Arctic ice (much) faster than expected
Maximum allowable atmospheric concentration
Emissions higher than expected: Deforestation
Emissions above those expected: Methane
Emissions above those expected: Nitrous oxide
Emissions above expectations: Permafrost melt 70 years ahead
Climate sensitivity on the rise
+1.5 ºC feasible?
At the same temperature, worse and worse impacts
Sea level: 5 meters more in this century?
Oceans: (1) Atomic Hell
Oceans (2). More acid than previously thought
Oceans (3): Hypoxia, anoxia, desertification of the seas
4 ºC in 2060? Journey to the unthinkable
Tipping points reached and Gaia in danger

(1): Introduction
(2): The global TP
(3): Beyond the global TP
(4): The thermohaline current, on the way to total collapse
(5): A journey through the chain of collapses
(6): Permafrost for most of the time

Biodiversity and extinction of species
Fire!

7: Examples of overestimating the feasibility of the proposed technological responses

Magical technological thinking
Geoexperiments

8: They knew, and they know again

Do we know?

Part III

8: Phase II: From science to the public and politicians

Drafting summaries, executive summaries and various evaluations
Think tanks: the right wing parallel university 
Communication agencies (public relations)
The vices of the media system

13: Phase III: From politicians to policies

Perceptual limitations
Psychological resistance
Political institutionalization and negotiation of the non-negotiable
Resistance to change

«

2.

Second part

6 :.

7:

Do we know?

Third part

8: Phase II: From science to the public and politicians
Drafting of summaries, executive summaries and various evaluations
Think tanks: the parallel university of the right
Communication agencies (public relations)
The vices of the media system

13: Phase III: From politicians to policies
Perceptual limitations
Psychological resistance
Political institutionalization and negotiation of the non-negotiable
Resistance to change

14: General conclusions
Epilogue
Annexes
References
Listing of additional underestimation examples (under construction)
Más información sobre este texto de origenPara obtener más información sobre la traducción, se necesita el texto de origen
Enviar comentarios
Paneles laterales