Artículo de referencia: ¿Reducir emisiones para combatir el cambio climático? Depende.
- Ferran P. Vilar – Por qué, probablemente, usted no se lo cree – Usted no se lo Cree, 24/11/2009 – https://ustednoselocree.com/2009/11/24/por-que-usted-probablemente-no-se-lo-cree/
- William A. Wagenaar and Sabato D. Sagaria (1975) – Misperception of exponential growth – Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics 18:416-422 DOI:10.3758/BF03204114 – Institute for Perception TNO, Soesterberg; Pennsylvania State University
“Exponential growth in numerical series and graphs is grossly underestimated in an intuitive extrapolation task … The size of the effect is considerable; it is not unusual that two-thirds of the subjects produce estimates below 10% of the normative value. The effect increases with the exponent of the stimulus series, and with addition of a constant to the stimulus series. Neither special instructions about the nature of exponential growth nor daily experience with growth processes enhanced the extrapolations.” - Kevin E. Trenberth et al (2007) – Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change – En: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 12 autores
“Note that for shorter recent periods, the slope is greater, indicating accelerated warming.” - Wojciech M. Budzianowski (2011) – Time delay of global warming – International Journal of Global Warming 3:289-306 doi:10.1504/IJGW.2011.043424 – Published online: October 2011 – Wroclaw University of Technology
“Thermal response of Earth’s climate to atmospheric GHGs is delayed in time. The magnitude of time delay can significantly exceed several decades, while current thermal imbalance of Earth is likely to amount 0.6 K but it can increase to 5 K by 2100.” - Ferran P. Vilar (2009) – La certeza matemática del 5ºC del Titanic – Usted no se lo cree,02/11/2009 – https://ustednoselocree.com/2009/11/02/la-certeza-matematica-del-5ccuarto-camarote-del-titanic/
- John D. Sterman and Linda Booth Sweeney (2007) – Understanding Public Complacency about Climate Change: Adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter – Climatic Change 80:213-238 – Published online: 09/01/2007 – MIT Sloan School of Management – http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/StermanSweeney.pdf
“Low public support for mitigation policies may be based more on misconceptions of climate dynamics than high discount rates or uncertainty about the risks of harmful climate change.” - John D. Sterman (2011) – Communicating climate change risks in a skeptical world – Climatic Change doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0189-3 – Published online: 18/08/2011 – MIT Sloan School of Management – http://www.erb.umich.edu/Research/ColloquiaDocs/StermanClimaticChange2011.pdf
“People routinely ignore or underestimate time delays (Sterman 1989, 2000; Buehler et al. 2002). Underestimating time delays leads people to believe, wrongly, that it is prudent to “wait and see” whether a potential environmental risk will actually cause harm.” - Science Daily – Baltic Sea Contributes Carbon Dioxide to the Atmosphere, Study Shows – Published online: 10/10/2010 – http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/10/111010074858.htm
“The capacity of the Baltic Sea to absorb carbon dioxide without major changes to the acidity of the water has changed in recent centuries. In the Bay of Bothnia, the ability to resist change has fallen, while it has increased in the south-eastern parts of the Baltic Sea,» says Karin Wesslander of the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Gothenburg.” - Kevin Shaefer et al (2011) – Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming – Tellus B doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x – Published online: 15/02/2011 – National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado – 4 authors – Peer reviewed
“By 2200, we predict a 29–59% decrease in permafrost area and a 53–97 cm increase in active layer thickness. By 2200, the PCF strength in terms of cumulative permafrost carbon flux to the atmosphere is 190 ± 64 Gt C. This estimate may be low because it does not account for amplified surface warming due to the PCF itself and excludes some discontinuous permafrost regions where SiBCASA did not simulate permafrost. We predict that the PCF will change the arctic from a carbon sink to a source after the mid-2020s and is strong enough to cancel 42–88% of the total global land sink. The thaw and decay of permafrost carbon is irreversible and accounting for the PCF will require larger reductions in fossil fuel emissions to reach a target atmospheric CO2 concentration.” - M. Eby et al (2009) – Lifetime of Anthropogenic Climate Change: Millennial Time Scales of Potential CO2 and Surface Temperature Perturbations – Journal of Climate 22:2501-2511 doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2554.1 – http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/reprints/eby.2009.long_tail.pdf
“This suggests that the consequences of anthropogenic CO2 emissions will persist for many millennia.” - Susan Solomon et al (2008) – Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 106:10933-10938 doi:10.1073/pnas.0812721106 – Chemical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/01/28/0812721106.full.pdf+html – 4 autores
“The climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1.000 years after emissions stop.” - James Hansen et al (2011) – The Case for Young People and Nature: A Path to a Healthy, Natural, Prosperous Future – Draft paper – Published online: 04/05/2011 – Columbia University Earth Institute, New York – http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110505_CaseForYoungPeople.pdf – 14 autores
“The conclusion is that global warming of 1°C relative to 1880-1920 mean temperature (i.e., 0.75°C above the 1951-1980 temperature or 0.3°C above the 5-year running mean temperature in 2000), if maintained for long, is already close to or into the ‘dangerous’ zone. The suggestion that 2°C global warming may be a ‘safe’ target is extremely unwise based on critical evidence accumulated over the past three decades. Global warming of this amount would be putting Earth on a path toward Pliocene-like conditions, i.e., a very different world marked by massive and continual disruptions to both society and ecosystems.” - H. D. Matthews and Ken Caldeira (2008) – Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions – Geophysical Research Abstracts 10 EGU2008-A-08242 ID:1607-7962/gra/EGU2008-A-08242 – Published online: 27/02/2008 – Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University; Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford – http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate%20change/Geo-politics/Matthews_Caldeira%20zero%20carbon.pdf
“To hold climate constant at a given global temperature requires near-zero future carbon emissions … future anthropogenic emissions would need to be eliminated in order to stabilize global-mean temperatures … any future anthropogenic emissions will commit the climate system to warming that is essentially irreversible on centennial timescales.” - Josep G. Canadell et al (2007) – Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 104:18866-18870 doi:10.1073/pnas.0702737104 – Published online: 20/11/2007 – Global Carbon Project, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Marine and Atmospheric Research – http://www.pnas.org/content/104/47/18866.full.pdf – 10 autores
“The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO2 emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000–2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3 % to 3.3 %y−1. The third process is indicated by increasing evidence (P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO2 emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO2 sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions.” - Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen (WBGU, 1995) – Special Report. Scenario for the derivation of global CO2 reduction targets and implementation strategies – WBGU (Consejo Asesor del Cambio Global) – Statement on the occasion of the First Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change in Berlin – http://www.wbgu.de/fileadmin/templates/dateien/veroeffentlichungen/sondergutachten/sn1995/wbgu_sn1995_engl.pdf
“In our scenario, a mean value for the burden on global society of 5% of GGP is taken as the maximum tolerable limit (to the extent that this burden can be expressed in monetary terms) … the extreme reduction requirements that arise after approx. 30 years would then exceed the elasticity of the world economic system.» - Richard Heinberg (2009) – Searching for a Miracle: Net Energy Limits & the Fate of Industrial Society – Forum on Globalisation & The Post Carbon Institute – – Post-carbon Indtitute – http://www.postcarbon.org/new-site-files/Reports/Searching_for_a_Miracle_web10nov09.pdf
“The scale of denial is breathtaking. For as Heinberg’s analysis makes depressingly clear, there will be NO combination of alternative energy solutions that might enable the long term continuation of economic growth, or of industrial societies in their present form and scale. Ultimately the solutions we desperately seek will not come from ever-greater technical genius and innovation. Far better and potentially more successful pathways can only come from a sharp turn to goals, values, and practices that emphasize conservation of material and energy resources, localization of most economic frameworks, and gradual population reduction to stay within the carrying capacities of the planet.” - Ted Trainer (2010) – Can renewables etc. solve the greenhouse problem? The negative case – Energy Policy 38:4107-4114 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.037 – Published online: 07/05/2010 – Social Work, University of NSW, Australia – http://jayhanson.us/_Energy/TrainerRenewables.pdf
“Virtually all current discussion of climate change and energy problems proceeds on the assumption that technical solutions are possible within basically affluent-consumer societies. There is however a substantial case that this assumption is mistaken. This case derives from a consideration of the scale of the tasks and of the limits of non-carbon energy sources, focusing especially on the need for redundant capacity in winter. The first line of argument is to do with the extremely high capital cost of the supply system that would be required, and the second is to do with the problems set by the intermittency of renewable sources. It is concluded that the general climate change and energy problem cannot be solved without large scale reductions in rates of economic production and consumption, and therefore without transition to fundamentally different social structures and systems.” - Patrick Moriarty and Damon Honnery (2011) – Is there an optimum level for renewable energy? – Energy Policy 39:2748-2753 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.02.044 – Department of Design, Monash University-Caulfield Campus; Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Monash University-Clayton Campu
“In all three studies, the idea is that there is an optimum level of activity beyond which the ecosystem services freely provided by the natural world are compromised; the optimum number of Earths that can be sustainably used is 1.0; the optimum level of groundwater use might be the level, which can be annually sustained by recharge. We argue in this paper that diversion of Earth’s energy flows to satisfy humanity’s energy needs is also subject to an upper limit—that there is an optimum level of RE use.” - International Scientists and Economists Statement on Biofuels and Land Use – Union of Concerned Scientists – http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/forest_solutions/EU-ILUC-Letter.html
“Nearly 200 scientists and economists with Ph.D.s and expertise related to climate, energy, and land use have signed on to the International Scientists and Economists Statement on Biofuels and Land Use to urge the European Commission to recognize and account for indirect land use change impacts as a part of the lifecycle analyses of heat-trapping emissions from biofuels.” - James Hansen et al (2008) – Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? – The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2:217-231 – Published online: 01/02/2008 – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute – http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2008/2008_Hansen_etal.pdf – 10 autores
“If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm, but likely less than that. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.” - James Hansen (2009) – Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity – Bloomsbury, New York – Published online: 01/12/2010 – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute – http://www.stormsofmygrandchildren.com/
“The paleoclimate record does not provide a case with a climate forcing of the magnitude and speed that will occur if fossil fuels are all burned. Models are nowhere near the stage at which they can predict reliably when major ice sheet disintegration will begin. Nor can we say how close we are to methane hydrate instability. But these are questions of when, not if. If we burn all the fossil fuels, the ice sheets almost surely will melt entirely, with the final sea level rise about 75 meters (250 feet), with most of that possibly occurring within a time scale of centuries.” - Beate G. Liepert (2002) – Observed reductions of surface solar radiation at sites in the United States and worldwide from 1961 to 1990 – Geophysical Research Letters 29:1421 doi:10.1029/2002GL014910 – Published online: 24/05/2002 – Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University – http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Liepert2002.pdf “Surface solar radiation revealed an estimated 7 W/m2 or 4% decline at sites worldwide from 1961 to 1990. Here I find that the strongest declines occurred in the United States sites with 19 W/m2 or 10%.”
- Martin Wild (2011) – Enlightening Global Dimming and Brightening – Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00074.1 – Published online: 08/07/2011 – ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science
“The present synthesis provides in a nutshell the main characteristics of this phenomenon, a conceptual framework for its causes, and an overview over potential environmental implications. Latest developments and remaining gaps of knowledge in this rapidly growing field of research are further highlighted.” - K. C. Armour and G. H. Roe (2011) – Climate commitment in an uncertain world – Geophysical Research Letters 38, L01707, doi:10.1029/2010GL045850 – Department of Physics; Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle – http://earthweb.ess.washington.edu/roe/GerardWeb/Publications_files/ArmourRoe_committed_draft.pdf
“Studies of the climate commitment due to CO2 find that global temperature would remain near current levels, or even decrease slightly, in the millennium following the cessation of emissions. However, this result overlooks the important role of the non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols. This paper shows that global energetics require an immediate and significant warming following the cessation of emissions as aerosols are quickly washed from the atmosphere, and the large uncertainty in current aerosol radiative forcing implies a large uncertainty in the climate commitment.” - Meinrat O. Andreae et al (2005) – Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future – Nature 435:1187-1190 doi:10.1038/nature03671 – Published online: 30/06/2005 – Max Planck Institute for Chemistry; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology – http://irina.eas.gatech.edu/EAS_spring2006/Andreae2005.pdf – 3 autores
“Strong aerosol cooling in the past and present would then imply that future global warming may proceed at or even above the upper extreme of the range projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change” - Veerabhadran Ramanathan and Y. Feng (2008) – On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 105:14245-14250 doi:10.1073/pnas.0803838105 – Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego – http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/doc/zpq038084771p.pdf
“The estimated warming of 2.4°C (1.4°C to 4.3°C) is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols … Even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4°C.” - David D. Parrish and Tong Zhu (2009) – Clean Air for Megacities – Science 326:674-675 doi:10.1126/science.1176064 – Chemical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
“On balance, particulate matter in the atmosphere is believed to presently compensate for a large fraction of the warming effects of greenhouse gases, but there is large uncertainty in our understanding of its net climate effects and on the different time and space scales on which particulate matter affects climate.” - Drew T. Shindellet al (2009) – Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions – Science 326:716-718 doi:10.1126/science.1174760 – Published online: 30/10/2009 – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University – 6 autores
“We found that gas-aerosol interactions substantially alter the relative importance of the various emissions. In particular, methane emissions have a larger impact than that used in current carbon-trading schemes or in the Kyoto Protocol.” - Elke Stehfest et al (2008) – Climate benefits of changing diet – Climatic Change 95:83-102 doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9534-6 – Published online: 04/02/2009 – Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Global Sustainability and Climate – http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/banr/AnimalProductionMaterials/StehfestClimate.pdf – 6 autores
“A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO2-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case.” - Katharine L. Ricke et al (2010) – Regional climate response to solar-radiation management – Nature Geoscience 3:537-541doi:10.1038/ngeo915 – Published online: 18/07/2010
“Hence, it may not be possible to stabilize the climate in all regions simultaneously using solar-radiation management. Regional diversity in the response to different levels of solar-radiation management could make consensus about the optimal level of geoengineering difficult, if not impossible, to achieve.” - James Lovelock (2006) – La venjança de Gaia – Columna Edicions, Barcelona
“Si el sistema de la Terra, Gaia, pogués expressar alguna preferència, seria per la fredor d’una era glacial, no pas per la relativa calor actual.” - William F. Ruddiman (2003) – The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago – Climatic Change 61:261-93 doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000004577.17928.fa – Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia – http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Ruddiman2003.pdf
“The anthropogenic era is generally thought to have begun 150 to 200 years ago, when the industrial revolution began producing CO2 and CH4 at rates sufficient to alter their compositions in the atmosphere. A different hypothesis is posed here: anthropogenic emissions of these gases first altered atmospheric concentrations thousands of years ago. This hypothesis is based on three arguments.” - Darrell S. Kaufman et al (2009) – Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling – Science 325:1236-1239 doi:10,1126/science1173983 – Published online: 04/09/2009 – School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University – 11 autores
“The cooling trend was reversed during the 20th century, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000.” - Jaelyn J. Eberle et al (2010) – Seasonal variability in Arctic temperatures during early Eocene time – Earth and Planetary Science Letters 296:481-486 doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2010.06.005 – University of Colorado Museum of Natural History and Department of Geological Sciences – http://www2.coloradocollege.edu/dept/gy/henry_pdfs/Eberle%20et%20al.%202010.pdf – 6 autores
“From a paleontologic perspective, our temperature estimates verify that alligators and tortoises, by way of nearest living relative-based climatic inference, are viable paleoclimate proxies for mild, above-freezing year-round temperatures. Although for both of these reptilian groups, past temperature tolerances probably were greater than in living descendants.” - Ursula Röhl et al (2007) – On the duration of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) – Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 8:Q12002, doi:10.1029/2007GC001784 – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences (MARUM), Bremen University – http://www.es.ucsc.edu/~jzachos/pubs/Roehl_etal_07.pdf – 4 autores
“The lower portion of the PETM which includes the dissolution phase and lower recovery interval contains 5 precession cycles, while the upper recovery interval contains 3.5 cycles. The total duration of the PETM is now estimated to be 170 ka, roughly mid-way between previous estimates based on cycle stratigraphy and He isotopes.” - Ying Cui et al (2011) – Slow release of fossil carbon during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum – Nature Geoscience DOI:10.1038/ngeo1179 – Published online: 05/06/2011 – Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University – 9 autores
“The transient global warming event known as the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum occurred about 55.9 Myr ago … Our simulations show that the peak rate of carbon addition was probably in the range of 0.3–1.7 Pg C yr−1, much slower than the present rate of carbon emissions.” - James C. Zachos et al (2008) – An early Cenozoic perspective on greenhouse warming and carbon-cycle dynamics – Nature 451:279-283 doi:10.1038/nature06588 Supplement – 3 autores
“If fossil-fuel emissions continue unabated, in less than 300 years pCO2 will reach about 1,800 ppmv, a level not present on Earth for roughly 50 million years. Both the magnitude and the rate of rise complicate the goal of accurately forecasting how the climate will respond.” - Naomi Oreskes – The Long Consensus on Climate Change – The Washington Post 01/02/2007 – http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/31/AR2007013101808.html
“In a special message to Congress in February 1965, President Lyndon B. Johnson noted: “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through . . . a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.” A second warning came in 1966 … geophysicist Gordon MacDonald, who later served on President Richard Nixon’s Council on Environmental Quality … MacDonald’s committee concluded that increased carbon dioxide might also lead to “inadvertent weather modification.’ In 1978, Robert M. White … later president of the National Academy of Engineering, put it this way: ‘carbon dioxide released … can have consequences for climate that pose a considerable threat to future society.’” - Stephen M. Gardiner (2010) – Ethics and climate change: an introduction – WIRES Climate Change doi:10.1002/wcc.26 – Department of Philosophy and Program on Values in Society, University of Washington
“If the decision to pursue geoengineering is made in the context of serious inertia on mitigation and adaptation for climate change, and a more general indifference to global environmental problems, the claim is that this reflects badly on the particular societies and generations who make that decision and perhaps on humanity as such. On one way of looking at things, having created a problem, we are obstinately refusing to face it in a serious way, but instead doing whatever we can to defer action, impose the burden on others, and obfuscate matters by arguing that we must hold out for a less demanding solution (however unrealistic that may be). What kind of people would do such a thing?” - James Hansen et al (2011) – Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Implications – – Published online: 26/08/2011 – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies + Columbia University Earth Institute – http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1105/1105.1140.pdf – 14 autores
“Sea level may have been a few meters higher than today in some of those periods [ref]. In contrast, sea level was 25–35 m higher the last time that the Earth was 2–3°C warmer than today, i.e., during the Middle Pliocene about three million years ago [ref].” - Clair Gough and Paul Upham (2011) – Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS or Bio-CCS) – Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology – Published online: 13/10/2011 – University of Manchester
“To put these figures in context, the total CO2 emissions from large point sources in the UK (2005) was 258 MTCO2 [ref] equivalent to storage capacity for CO2 captured from domestic point sources for a period which could be in the order of 60 years. Storage capacity estimates for Europe as a whole are 117Gt CO2.” - Paul Uphama and Thomas Roberts (2011) – Public perceptions of CCS: emergent themes in pan-European focus groups and implications for communications – International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 5:1359-1367 doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2011.06.005 – Published online: 06/07/2011 – Centre for Integrated Energy Research, University of Leeds, United Kingdom + Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki + Manchester Institute of Innovation Research and Tyndall Manchester, University of Manchester
“This paper reports on European public perceptions of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as determined through six focus groups, one held in each of the UK, the Netherlands, Poland, Germany, Belgium and Spain … CCS was generally perceived as an uncertain, end-of-pipe technology that will perpetuate fossil-fuel dependence. Noting the political context to CCS, we conclude that advocates will likely find the European public opinion context a challenging one in which to achieve deployment, particularly for onshore storage, except where local communities perceive real economic or other benefits to CCS.” - James E. Hansen (2004) – Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference: A Discussion of Humanity’s Faustian Climate Bargain and the Payments Coming Due – Distinguished Public Lecture Series at the Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Iowa – http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2004/dai_complete_20041026.pdf
“Figure 20. The Faustian bargain. Humans have enjoyed the fruits of the industrial revolution and avoided a large cost in climate change, as aerosol cooling has mitigated greenhouse warming. Payment comes due when humanity realizes that it cannot tolerate the further exponential growth of air pollution that would be needed for continued mitigation of global warming.”
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