- George Monbiot – If we behave as if it’s too late, then our prophecy is bound to come true – The Guardian 17/03/2009 – http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/mar/17/monbiot-copenhagen-emission-cuts
“Quietly in public, loudly in private, climate scientists everywhere are saying the same thing: it’s over. The years in which more than 2 ºC of global warming could have been prevented have passed, the opportunities squandered by denial and delay. On current trajectories we’ll be lucky to get away with 4 ºC. Mitigation (limiting greenhouse gas pollution) has failed; now we must adapt to what nature sends our way. If we can” - Carlos Gay and Francisco Estrada (2009) – Objective probabilities about future climate are a matter of opinion – Climatic Change doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9681-4 – Published online: 08/10/2009 – Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, México- Peer-reviewed
“Even though several emission scenarios and models are now available, some of the earlier literature on the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in human and ecological systems was developed selecting a single climate change scenario as input (a subjective selection of a single emission scenario, a model and a climate sensitivity). Evidently, this did not provide a good representation of the available state of knowledge at the time and arbitrarily dismissed all uncertainty, producing a degenerate probability distribution.” - G. R. van der Werf et al (2009) – CO2 emissions from forest loss – Nature Geoscience 2:733-808 – November 2009 – Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences,VU University Amsterdam – 8 authors – Peer-reviewed
“The combined contribution of deforestation, forest degradation and peatland emissions to total anthropogenic CO2 emissions is about 15% (range 8–20%; see Supplementary Information for a comparison with all anthropogenic greenhouse gases). We conclude that taking into account carbon emissions from peatlands would enhance the effectiveness of REDD programmes, which are under discussion in the United Nation’s climate policy negotiations.” - Mason Inman – The climate change game – Nature Reports Climate Change 3:130 – November 2009 – Peer-reviewed
“In a variant of the experiment, where there was only a 50 per cent chance of climate doom, the outcome was even worse: Only one out of 10 teams succeeded at the task. “It’s really frustrating,” Milinski says.” - Malte Meinshausen et al (2009) – Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 ºC. – Nature 458:1158-1162 – 30/04/2009 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany – Peer-reviewed
“…for the scenarios considered, the probability of exceeding 2 º rises to 53–87% if global GHG emissions are still more than 25% above 2000 levels in 2020.” - Gavin Schmidt, David Archer (2009) – Too much of a bad thing – Nature 458:1117-1118 – 30/04/2009 – Peer-reviewed
“That’s an extremely difficult target … Our options are essencially exhausted. We have to bend down our emissions by 2020.” - David G. Victor – Global warming: why the 2 °C goal is a political delusion – Nature 459, 909 – 18/06/2009 – Energy and Sustainable Development, Stanford University – Peer-reviewed
“Real outcomes might be plagued by interactions that doom the planet to warming of 2 °C (or more), whether or not emissions are cut. Even with a big dose of luck, the effort needed to get to 2 °C would be heroic, as Allen and colleagues indicate, and probably far beyond what real governments can achieve.”
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