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Texto de referencia: El cambio climático altera las fuerzas gravitatorias, con fuerte incidencia en el inevitable aumento del nivel del mar

1. E. Rignot et al (2011) – Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise – Geophysical Research Letters 38 L05503doi:10.1029/2011GL046583 – Earth System Science, University of California – http://igitur-archive.library.uu.nl/phys/2012-0315-200618/rignot_etal_grl2011.pdf – 5 autores
   “Ice sheet mass balance estimates have improved substantially in recent years using a variety of techniques, over different time periods, and at various levels of spatial detail. Considerable disparity remains between these estimates due to the inherent uncertainties of each method, the lack of detailed comparison between independent estimates, and the effect of temporal modulations in ice sheet surface mass balance. Here, we present a consistent record of mass balance for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets over the past two decades, validated by the comparison of two independent techniques over the last 8 years: one differencing perimeter loss from net accumulation, and one using a dense time series of time-variable gravity. We find excellent agreement between the two techniques for absolute mass loss and acceleration of mass loss. In 2006, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets experienced a combined mass loss of 475 ± 158 Gt/yr, equivalent to 1.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr sea level rise. Notably, the acceleration in ice sheet loss over the last 18 years was 21.9 ± 1 Gt/yr2 for Greenland and 14.5 ± 2 Gt/yr2 for Antarctica, for a combined total of 36.3 ± 2 Gt/yr2. This acceleration is 3 times larger than for mountain glaciers and ice caps (12 ± 6 Gt/yr2). If this trend continues, ice sheets will be the dominant contributor to sea level rise in the 21st century.”
2. Jerry X. Mitrovica et al (2009) – The Sea-Level Fingerprint of West Antarctic Collapse – Science 323:753 doi:10.1126/science.1166510 – Department of Physics, University of Toronto –  3  autores
   “Recent projections of sea-level rise after a future collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (for example, the Fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report) assume that meltwater will spread uniformly (that is, eustatically) across the oceans once marine-based sectors of the West Antarctic are filled. A largely neglected 1977 study predicted that peak values would be 20% higher than the eustatic in the North Pacific and 5 to 10% higher along the U.S. coastline. We show, with use of a state-of-the-art theory, that the sea-level rise in excess of the eustatic value will be two to three times higher than previously predicted for U.S. coastal sites.”
3. James E. Hansen and Makiko Sato (2011) – Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change – En: Climate Change: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects. A. Berger, F. Mesinger, and D. Šijački, Eds. Springer – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute – http://arxiv.org/abs/1105.0968v3
   “We conclude that ocean core data are correct in indicating that global surface temperature was only slightly higher in the Eemian and Holsteinian interglacial periods than in the Holocene, at most by about 1°C, but probably by only several tenths of a degree Celsius. By extension (see Fig. 6), the Pliocene was at most 1-2°C warmer than the Holocene on global mean.”
4. Robert E. Kopp et al (2010) – Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage – Nature 462:863-868 doi:10.1038/nature08686 – Department of Geosciences, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University – 5 autores
   “We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level ($210 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m.kyr-1 but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr-1. Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.”
5. Harry Dowsett et al (1994) – Joint investigations of the Middle Pliocene climate I: PRISM paleoenvironmental reconstructions – Global and Planetary Change 9:169-195 – U.S. Geological Survey – 9 autores
   “This reconstruction, developed primarily from paleontological data, includes middle Pliocene sea level, vegetation, land-ice distribution, sea-ice distribution, and sea-surface temperature (SST), all of which contribute to our conceptual understanding of this climate system. These data indicate middle Pliocene sea level was at least 25 m higher than present, presumably due in large part to a reduction in the size of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.”
6. W.T. Pfeffer et al (2008) – Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise – Science 321:1340-1343 doi:10.1126/science.1159099 – Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado – 3 autores
   “We consider glaciological conditions required for large sea-level rise to occur by 2100 and conclude that increases in excess of 2 meters are physically untenable. We find that a total sea-level rise of about 2 meters by 2100 could occur under physically possible glaciological conditions but only if all variables are quickly accelerated to extremely high limits. More plausible but still accelerated conditions lead to total sea-level rise by 2100 of about 0.8 meter … … these values give a context and starting point for refinements in SLR forecasts on the basis of clearly defined assumptions and offer a more plausible range of estimates than those neglecting the dominant ice dynamics term.”
7. James Hansen (2007) – Scientific reticence and sea level rise – Environmental Research Letters 2 024002 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002 – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute – http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen.pdf
   “Under BAU forcing in the 21st century, the sea level rise surely will be dominated by a third term: (3) ice sheet disintegration. This third term was small until the past few years, but it is has at least doubled in the past decade and is now close to 1 mm/year, based on the gravity satellite measurements discussed above. As a quantitative example, let us say that the ice sheet contribution is 1 cm for the decade 2005–15 and that it doubles each decade until the West Antarctic ice sheet is largely depleted. That time constant yields a sea level rise of the order of 5 m this century. Of course I cannot prove that my choice of a ten-year doubling time for nonlinear response is accurate, but I am confident that it provides a far better estimate than a linear response for the ice sheet component of sea level rise under BAU forcing. ”
8. Paul Blanchon et al (2009) – Rapid sea-level rise and reef back-stepping at the close of the last interglacial highstand – Nature 458:881-884 doi:10.1038/nature07933 – Published online: 16/04/2009 – Institute of Marine & Limnological Sciences, National Autonomous University of Mexico – 4 autores
   “Reconstruction of eustatic sea level from the precise age and elevation of submerged reef-crest corals has shown that the last deglaciation (Termination 1) was punctuated by rapid, metre-scale rise events caused by ice-sheet instability (refs). Little is known, however, about the potential for unstable ice-sheet and sea-level behaviour within fully interglacial climates.”
9. Robert E. Kopp et al (2010) – Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage – Nature 462:863-868 doi:10.1038/nature08686 – Department of Geosciences, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University – 5 autores
   “The 95%, 67% and 33% probability exceedance values for 1,000-year average GSL rise rate during the interval when GSL was $210m are 5.6mkyr21, 7.4mkyr21 and 9.2mkyr21, respectively (Fig. 4b; Fig. 5, dashed line).We emphasize that these values by no means exclude faster intervals of sea level rise lasting for less than one millennium.”
10. Now is the time to prepare for the great floods – New Scientist 2715 –  July 2009 – http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20327152.800-now-is-the-time-to-prepare-for-the-great-floods.html
    “Three key facts about rising sea levels need to be hammered home to the world’s politicians and planners: sea-level rise is now inevitable, it will happen faster than most of us thought, and it will go on for a very long time. Even if greenhouse gas emissions stopped tomorrow, the oceans will continue to swell as they warm, and as glaciers and ice sheets melt or slide into the sea … The growing consensus among climate scientists is that the «official» estimate of sea-level rise in the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – 0.2 to 0.6 metres by 2100 – is misleading. It could well be in the region of 1 to 2 metres, with a small risk of an even greater rise. And barring a megaproject to cool the planet, it could take several thousand years for the system to reach equilibrium…
11. Aida Vila – Groenlandia: el cambio climático evidente – Greenpeace, 26/07/2012 – Responsable de la campaña Cambio climático y Energía de Greenpeace España – http://m.greenpeace.es/index.php/blog/2012/07/groenlandia-el-cambio-climatico-evidente
    “Una buena muestra de por dónde va la política climática española son las declaraciones del ministro Cañete en la sesión del Consejo Asesor de Medio Ambiente, celebrada el pasado martes, cuando al ser preguntado por qué datos sobre impactos del cambio climático en la costa se habían tenido en cuenta a la hora de abordar la reforma de la Ley de Costas afirmó que ‘el cambio climático no causa impactos en la costa española’.”
12. Rafael Méndez – Solo la extinción de incendios se salva del drástico recorte en Medio Ambiente – El País, 29/09/2012 – http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2012/09/29/actualidad/1348927832_748003.html
    “En cambio climático solo hay presupuestados 46 millones para comprar derechos de emisión, pese a que los presupuestos reconocen que España aún deberá adquirir unos 105 millones de toneladas de CO2 (que puede oscilar entre los 700 y los 1.500 millones en función de cómo evolucione el mercado de derechso de emisión). Para completar las compras hay hasta final de 2014, así que ese gasto (obligado por compromisos internacionales) queda diferido para el próximo presupuesto.»